Does the stock market affect card prices?

[Mountaineer1999]

Watching the stock market the last few weeks has been a bit frightening. Wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the price of cards during a downturn in the market. Do/would people quit collecting and maybe even start selling in a bear market?

[GregC]

Originally Posted by Mountaineer1999

Watching the stock market the last few weeks has been a bit frightening. Wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the price of cards during a downturn in the market. Do/would people quit collecting and maybe even start selling in a bear market?

I certainly hope so!! Would love to upgrade a number of Mantle's on the cheap haha.

[Leon]

I copied this thread from another section as it's a great question that might affect all card collecting. I do think the stock market has an effect on prices.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Leon

I copied this thread from another section as it's a great question that might affect all card collecting. I do think the stock market has an effect on prices.

Yes I agree as well ..look at the years when the market was down...most of the cards sold for less at that time...yes can be other factors too but good luck finding someone to pay for a 20k card if they are currently down 25% in the market.....now for 300 dollar cards...not that big a deal..but the Mantles..we will see...market still not down enough yet to be a factor

still the recent auctons have had records highs for the big cards....need to actually see some lower auction results before I entertain that theory though..

[Snapolit1]

In analyzing historical card prices on VCP, it's clear to me that many high end cards (not all, but many) peaked in value in 2007 and 2008 and took serious dips when the markets tanked. Cards that sold for $15,000 in 2008 dropped off and were selling for 2/3s that a year later. Obviously not true across the board. Most of them have worked its way back by now, but I have seen the same general graph a number of times.
I think the moral of the story is that things will take a hit if the market gets whacked but if you are not a short term seller or dealer don't sweat it.

[vintagetoppsguy]

I replied in the other thread, then saw this one on the main page. I just quoted what I said in the other thread...

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

I can only speak for myself, but I haven't stopped collecting, just slowed down quite a bit.

In addition to the stock market, I happen to work for an oil and gas engineering company and our industry looks very gloomy for the next year or so. I'm on a project that wraps up in early Spring, but I don't know if I'll have a job after that. There are no new projects coming in. So that, along with the stock market downturn, has put a damper on my spending lately.

[packs]

I don't invest in stocks but I certainly hope this is true. I just wish more people in China collected.

[1952boyntoncollector]

there is also the possibility that people downsize their collection and use the funds on cards sold to buy the waterfront property cards..

[Mountaineer1999]

I've just noticed I'm not as in a spending mood after seeing red day after day. I would think that would be the case for most card collectors who have money in the markets. To get a real pullback in card prices I would assume that we would need a major market correction where some in the hobby would actually start to sell their cards. How would card values hold up in a recession....

[Rich Klein]

Yet in 1987 when the market tanked; prices exploded on all cards old and new

[oldjudge]

Everyone is in a different situation. However a lower stock market should translate to a decline in average disposable funds, which should result in lower prices for all non-essential items.

[Yoda]

I believe there is a direct correlation between the two. If the market is up and people are feeling good about the financial future, then I imagine they are more willing to go after big $ cards up to a point. I know that is the way I operate and with the big drop since the first of the year I probably will be sitting on the sidelines for a while unless real value presents itself. I believe there is a higher percentage of Americans in the stock market through 401Ks and IRAs than many people imagine and market movements will inevitably affect spending. I believe it will be interesting to see final prices realized in the current auctions, Mile High and For the Love of the Game, to see if the market pullback has any affect. Just remember what Chairman Mao said, "May you live in interesting times."

[chipperhank44]

For me, the stock market has almost no affect on my spending as it has no direct correlation to my disposable income. Gas prices, however, have had a wonderful affect on my spending!

Also, today's been a pretty nice little day for the market, well, unless you're Best Buy.

[midmo]

[Econteachert205]

Personally speaking I would say it does for me.

[BobbyVCP]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

In analyzing historical card prices on VCP, it's clear to me that many high end cards (not all, but many) peaked in value in 2007 and 2008 and took serious dips when the markets tanked. Cards that sold for $15,000 in 2008 dropped off and were selling for 2/3s that a year later. Obviously not true across the board. Most of them have worked its way back by now, but I have seen the same general graph a number of times.
I think the moral of the story is that things will take a hit if the market gets whacked but if you are not a short term seller or dealer don't sweat it.

In your research are these 1 pop cards that dropped in value? I find that as the population of a high grade card increases then the value drops dramatically. I think if the population did not increase then the value increased.

[RTK]

Good question, interesting. Maybe there should be an index for card collecting using certain highly "traded" cards or "iconic" cards from various years similar what's used in the stock market to reflect overall market variations, along the lines of the S & P 500 or Russell 2000.

[sb1]

Often times when the stock market is depressed, investors put their disposable money to work in other areas, as a hedge. Collectibles of all types are one area. High value coins and art are some of their main focuses to achieve a better rate of return than the market may offer. In the last decade or so there has been a move to high end baseball cards as well.

As is the case often times in the stock market, when prices are down, some people sell out either due to panic mode or cash flow, the saavy investors are there with cash in hand to buy at the low end and ride it back up in a few months or years. The collectible market being no different, I believe you will see cards of smaller value i.e. $100 to 10,000 take a lower tracking when the stock market is down, as collectors sell off, even some of the $10,000 to $100,000 items may sag a bit, but not nearly as much. By then the items have been absorbed by the investor type, who may well be a collector as well. They are prepared to wait for the return to previous levels and/or set new highs.

You really have two different price points at work, the lower end does not have enough strength or conviction from new buyers to keep prices rising and an oversupply of cards being offered, while the higher end market has an influx of capital and a very short supply of scarce/high grade material. 1952 Mantle or 1955 Clemente in high grade being prime examples, as well as Baltimore Ruth's etc.

[kailes2872]

For me, the stock market has almost no affect on my spending as it has no direct correlation to my disposable income. Gas prices, however, have had a wonderful affect on my spending!

I am waaay oversimplifying and am by every consideration, a novice on the financial markets. However, my advisor told me that it is a tad ironic with the oil price decline. The decline is causing a massive drop in energy stocks which (along with the China issue) is driving stock market declines. Meanwhile, it is driving much cheaper gas - especially when adjusted for inflation. So, the people that can "afford" gas prices in the upper $2 to low $3 range (not necessarily like it, but it doesn't change their lives), tend to have more money in the market - and the upside in cheap gas does not offset the downside in their net worth. The folks that need low gas prices, don't have the same level of market investment. You would think that increase in discretionary spending would make its way to retail shelves and drive earnings and share prices for companies - but we are not yet seeing that lag. In a way it reminds me of the way the market works with layoffs. When a company annouces 2000 layoffs, their stock price usually shoots up. However, when aggregate job losses are annouced on the quarter, the market dips. So, the street likes when companies have layoffs but when they all add up, they don't line the total decrease in jobs - as if they are separated from each other.

I've just noticed I'm not as in a spending mood after seeing red day after day. I would think that would be the case for most card collectors who have money in the markets.

^^^^ This for me. I have a junior in high school and his 529 portfolio was red for '15. It would have done better in a 1% savings account or buried in the back yard. I believe in market performance over time, but I am running out of months until he goes and I need the power of compound interest to offset the seemingly inelastic pricing of a college education. Knowing that monster is staring me in the eye (with 11 consecutive years with the younger two), it becomes a philosophical conversation with my wife if we are forced to cash flow college to keep from selling low on the investments in the early years - therefore, I try to be a responsible adult as much as I want to continue to grow the collection.

[ullmandds]

dow drops 300 point at open...i wont be buying any cards this morning!!!!!!

[Cozumeleno]

I am only in my 30s, so it doesn't affect what I do. If I were anywhere near retirement age, I am sure it would.

[Snapolit1]

I would have to think that many of the folks dabbling in ultra high end Mantle cards are banker/financial types. I think that would be the market to watch. If all of a sudden those cards start selling 20% of their highs of last year I think that would be pretty telling.

[ullmandds]

there almost may be an inverse relationship between the stock market and the vintage bb card market...as I feel more confident "investing" in bb cards than stocks.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

there almost may be an inverse relationship between the stock market and the vintage bb card market...as I feel more confident "investing" in bb cards than stocks.

That makes two of us Pete.....

[baztacula]

Wynn Resorts is up almost 9% today. Everything is fine.

[begsu1013]

i would be more worried if oil hit fifteen bucks a barrel and the aftermath it would produce on our economy vs the stock market tanking.

as always, a diversified portfolio is a strategic and proven method to help beat the odds.

but as for the market itself:

a bad market = more cards i can buy on the cheap.
a great market = my collection is proverbially worth more.

win, win for me.

[vthobby]

I have been pondering this for awhile and I think that when I was younger and VERY anxious about the stock market, it did affect my spending.

Now that I am older, I will buy a bit more Sportscards or Memorabilia in times of uncertainty (in addition to gold and silver) as the market is too up and down for me to invest that heavily.

When I spend on stuff I like, the intrinsic value is a big boost. You do not get that in the stock market!

Peace, Mike

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

i would be more worried if oil hit fifteen bucks a barrel and the aftermath it would produce on our economy vs the stock market tanking.

Wow, Bob, you're one of the very few that actually gets it. It's funny how many people commenting have no clue how the economy really works.

Someone else in this thread eluded that cheap gas prices are great. They think it doesn't effect them

Ummm, can you say 'trickle down effect'?

One of the indicators of a recession is low oil prices (just like the last recession).

Edited to show graph between low oil prices and last recession.

[Peter_Spaeth]

What's good for Exxon is good for America!!

[Dpeck100]

If oil goes to $15 the stock market will easily be 20% lower from here. The stress the meltdown in the commodity markets is causing in the credit markets is freighting.

There are so many factors that go into card purchases and sales and I think what is more important is who holds the cards and how impacted they are. If for example you have an energy executive whose net worth has been decimated and their future earnings potential impacted they may be forced to sell with no desire to.

Clearly there is a hot money in cards at the moment and no telling if prices start to fall if they will rush for the exits. The card market is very thin and all it takes is a few key buyers to leave the scene and prices can soften quickly.

The other major caveat is a lot of people are tired of the wild gyrations in the stock market and look to collectibles as an alternative asset class and if their economic situation isn't impacted it may have no impact on their physcology.

This is a tough call and something where hindsight will be 20/20.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

If oil goes to $15 the stock market will easily be 20% lower from here. The stress the meltdown in the commodity markets is causing in the credit markets is freighting.

There are so many factors that go into card purchases and sales and I think what is more important is who holds the cards and how impacted they are. If for example you have an energy executive whose net worth has been decimated and their future earnings potential impacted they may be forced to sell with no desire to.

Clearly there is a hot money in cards at the moment and no telling if prices start to fall if they will rush for the exits. The card market is very thin and all it takes is a few key buyers to leave the scene and prices can soften quickly.

The other major caveat is a lot of people are tired of the wild gyrations in the stock market and look to collectibles as an alternative asset class and if their economic situation isn't impacted it may have no impact on their physcology.

This is a tough call and something where hindsight will be 20/20.

As we all have seen even in a healthy market...there is buyers remorse/scared on bigger cards that we see bought, then on the market yet gain very fast....some may be trying to get a quick buck but its tough to do that when selling in the same year on 30 day auctions when you are hoping basically the underbidder on your auction will pay more than you did 3 months ago or a whole new person shows up even though a 30+ day auction usually is enough time for anyone who would of been interested to see it...yeah prices change but when I see the same card bought for 4000 for example and then for sale 4 months later at another auction (and not at some BIN preparing to wait years to get a higher price) i assume there was some buyer remorse/scared in that later decision

the stock market getting crushed would seem to add to the relisting of some of these cards .....

plus with such high card prices recently, why not take a almost sure chance for major profit..

[kailes2872]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Wow, Bob, you're one of the very few that actually gets it. It's funny how many people commenting have no clue how the economy really works.

Someone else in this thread eluded that cheap gas prices are great. They think it doesn't effect them

Ummm, can you say 'trickle down effect'?

One of the indicators of a recession is low oil prices (just like the last recession).

Edited to show graph between low oil prices and last recession.

David,
Guilty as charged. I tried to caveat, but I obviously didn't do a very good job of it. I am seeking to understand as I was regurgitating what my financial advisor said - and he said it much more eloquently. Probably time for me to leave the finanacial advice to the experts...

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Wow, Bob, you're one of the very few that actually gets it. It's funny how many people commenting have no clue how the economy really works.

Someone else in this thread eluded that cheap gas prices are great. They think it doesn't effect them

Ummm, can you say 'trickle down effect'?

One of the indicators of a recession is low oil prices (just like the last recession).

Edited to show graph between low oil prices and last recession.

You're cherry-picking data. Low oil prices can result from an economic downturn, as happened in the second half of 2008, but they can also result from many other factors. Any fall in oil prices from a recession is almost always very short-lived, since bigger macro factors generally have a much bigger effect. Oil prices declined pretty steadily from the early 1980s to the late 1990s, during one of the greatest and longest economic booms in U.S. history, going from over $100 (inflation-adjusted) down to $15 by 1998. They then rose pretty steadily over the next decade, with just a brief move downward in the short 2000-2001 recession, until 2008. See this longer-term price chart:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crud...-history-chart

[vthobby]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Wow, Bob, you're one of the very few that actually gets it. It's funny how many people commenting have no clue how the economy really works.

Someone else in this thread eluded that cheap gas prices are great. They think it doesn't effect them

Ummm, can you say 'trickle down effect'?

One of the indicators of a recession is low oil prices (just like the last recession).

Edited to show graph between low oil prices and last recession.

David,

It is all actually much simpler than that and harkens back to what my grandpa always said and did.......... if you can afford it and not put your future at risk and you NEED it then buy it, if you can't or it affects your families future in a negative way.......don't. If only the federal government listened to my Grandfather! He was a salt of the earth Vermont farmer and maple syrup maker and he used to send maple syrup to Stan Musial in the 1950s through a friend of his. RIP gramps. My grandfather never bragged about that but I sure as hell thought it was the cats meow! He died while I was in Afghanistan in 2010 and I still feel guilty about that but I digress.....

Peace, Mike

[MattyC]

Well, anecdotally I can offer that stocks are tumbling, yet I just happily paid a record for a 53T Mick, LOL!

[Stonepony]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Well, anecdotally I can offer that stocks are tumbling, yet I just happily paid a record for a 53T Mick, LOL!

Yeah, I just put out some serious cash for a 53B Mick.
I guess we're supposed to root for higher oil prices and China?

[MattyC]

Congrats-- 53B Mick is such a pretty card, always loved the composition of that photo, with him off to the side. Finding one of those centered is a major task.
Forget China, I am just rooting to get my 53 in hand so I can stare at it!