With the stakes rising, how worried should we be about high quality counterfeit cards

[tkd]

The numbered cards of today aren't such a bad thing for modern. It would be strange to see multiple # 2/5 of the same Jordan on ebay.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by tkd

The numbered cards of today aren't such a bad thing for modern. It would be strange to see multiple # 2/5 of the same Jordan on ebay.

There is a 1/1 where two copies are known.

Fleer kept a file copy that got into the hobby when Fleers files were sold.

I believe both are slabbed, and yes, the confusion was "interesting"

[drcy]

One's probably the equivalent of a proof or prototype.

[Exhibitman]

IMO the bigger threat is someone knocking off the PSA holders and then encapsulating genuine cards, especially modern where the PSA grade blessing means thousands of dollars over minute or imperceptible differences. You can buy a beautiful raw 1996 Fleer Metal Kobe RC for $50-$100. A PSA 10 is a $3,000 card. A raw Ultra LeBron RC is also a $50-$100 raw card; PSA 10 $8,000. I would expect that the counterfeiters, who are likely going to be from China with access to the factories that make the card holders and components are located, will make what they know first. Run a third shift at the plastics factory making PSA holders, spend the $$ duplicating the flip in a high end print shop, get some raw cards and mint money. There are over 4,000 Kobe RCs in the PSA database, including over 900 nines; just take your pick of cert #s and go to work.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

IMO the bigger threat is someone knocking off the PSA holders and then encapsulating genuine cards, especially modern where the PSA grade blessing means thousands of dollars over minute or imperceptible differences. You can buy a beautiful raw 1996 Fleer Metal Kobe RC for $50-$100. A PSA 10 is a $3,000 card. A raw Ultra LeBron RC is also a $50-$100 raw card; PSA 10 $8,000. I would expect that the counterfeiters, who are likely going to be from China with access to the factories that make the card holders and components are located, will make what they know first. Run a third shift at the plastics factory making PSA holders, spend the $$ duplicating the flip in a high end print shop, get some raw cards and mint money. There are over 4,000 Kobe RCs in the PSA database, including over 900 nines; just take your pick of cert #s and go to work.

This.

Given the large percentage of investors who seem more interested in the holder than the card, this is where I would spend my time if I were a scum bag counterfeiter**

I would think the holders would be easier to counterfeit than a 100 year old card

** I am not

[benjulmag]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

This.

Given the large percentage of investors who seem more interested in the holder than the card, this is where I would spend my time if I were a scum bag counterfeiter**

I would think the holders would be easier to counterfeit than a 100 year old card

** I am not

Wouldn't the problem to doing that be that unless you counterfeited a legitimate certification number on the flip, one could easily determine that the card is a counterfeit? And if you did use a legitimate certification number, you run the real risk of the owner of the legitimate flip coming forward and calling you out for fraud.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by benjulmag

Wouldn't the problem to doing that be that unless you counterfeited a legitimate certification number on the flip, one could easily determine that the card is a counterfeit? And if you did use a legitimate certification number, you run the real risk of the owner of the legitimate flip coming forward and calling you out for fraud.

Yeah, which is why you do it with abundant modern cards like the Kobe RC I used as an example. How many of those could you pump out before it caused a problem? There are under 300 Kobe Bryant PSA Registry sets. That leaves over 600 PSA 9 cert #s to steal. A crook with a modicum of organizational skills could clear a small fortune before anyone took steps to stop it.