The Aaron Judge Effect

[Yoda]

I remember the summer 0f '61 well when both Mantle and Maris were in a HR duel to catch the Babe when Mickey got injured. I am sure many have seen Billy Crystal's great movie which captures the whole drama.
Now in 2022 with Aaron Judge on the cusp of breaking Roger's record, it seems MLB is on fire and as popular as ever. The fact that Aaron has a shot at the triple crown only adds more spice and the Yanks playing the Red Sox this weekend has led to high drama across the nation
All this, I feel is good for the game and the hobby. Maris' RC card has seen a nice spike in the past month.

[packs]

I don't know how other people felt in 1998 but even to a then 13 year old it was fairly obvious something was off with McGwire and Sosa. I was not really a fan of that chase because it never once felt authentic.

This season feels completely different. Maybe not the same news cycle since Judge is on a level all his own and there's no competition between him and someone else. But this feels like a real race and it's the only time I think I've felt this way even though technically I've seen the record broken 4 times in my lifetime.

[RhodeyRhode]

I disagree...Mcgwire and Sosa helped to revitalize a sport back then and made a less interested sport following the strike earlier in the decade, into a nationwide topic. Much like Judge is doing today.

[packs]

That is what happened but I did not enjoy seeing two guys with obvious issues breaking the record. It didn't feel authentic. It felt like spectacle, which was popular, sure.

Maybe this is a better way of describing my feelings in 1998. You could watch a kid play a video game who was really good at the game, or you could watch a kid play a video game with Game Genie. Not really the same thing. Though perhaps equally entertaining to some people.

[perezfan]

^^^^ I agree with Packs. ^^^^

On a side note, it’s kind of cool to witness Albert Pujols’ assault on 700 HRs. Just one more to go with time running out. If he can do it, he’s in very limited company. Probably as great an achievement as Judge’s pursuit of “61”.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by perezfan

^^^^ I agree with Packs. ^^^^

On a side note, it’s kind of cool to witness Albert Pujols’ assault on 700 HRs. Just one more to go with time running out. If he can do it, he’s in very limited company. Probably as great an achievement as Judge’s pursuit of “61”.

but wandering franklins and jayson domingos cards are worth more...PSA 10 1 of 1, 16 names. Maybe this Tony Vulvo kid is the next ty cobb? His rookie cards sell for more too. Maybe cobb doesnt pop and that's what all collectors want. Pop.

Too bad Pujols doesn't pop with 700 homers.

[MantleMarisFordBerra]

As a Yankees fan I am absolutely in love with Judge and his historic season. The single season AL record and the triple crown? Unreal. And if you've watched the Yankees season there have been plenty of games where it seems Judge is simply willing the Yankees to win. Hal better get his checkbook out!

As far as Maris & the value of his cards, IMHO he was the guy for so many years I feel his status is secure in the hobby. If his 61 HRs had been surpassed (for example) by Frank Robinson in 1966 I feel Maris would be more of a footnote. As is, I feel his cards will always be in demand.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't know how other people felt in 1998 but even to a then 13 year old it was fairly obvious something was off with McGwire and Sosa. I was not really a fan of that chase because it never once felt authentic.

This season feels completely different. Maybe not the same news cycle since Judge is on a level all his own and there's no competition between him and someone else. But this feels like a real race and it's the only time I think I've felt this way even though technically I've seen the record broken 4 times in my lifetime.

I understand where you're coming from, even if I got wrapped up in it myself, way back then.

I may be remembering this wrong, but what I remember most about that era...is how FAR these guys were hitting their HR's. Especially McGwire.

Nobody hit them that far before, except maybe occasionally Mantle, nobody has hit them as far since. Judge is a huge, athletic, strong guy who hits the ball a ton, and almost all of his HR's are no doubters...but he doesn't hit them anywhere near as far as McGwire's longest dingers during his St. Louis heyday.

[oldjudge]

Don’t forget that Maris broke the record in an expansion season. Other than 1961 he never hit more than 39 homers.
I guess steroids allow you to hit the ball farther.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Don’t forget that Maris broke the record in an expansion season. Other than 1961 he never hit more than 39 homers.
I guess steroids allow you to hit the ball farther.

Yes, but league-wide HR rates were only up a few percentage points in 1961 over the few years prior.

1958: 0.91 HR per team per game
1959: 0.91
1960: 0.86
1961: 0.95
1962: 0.93

[oldjudge]

My guess is that is because the HR rate on the expansion teams pulled the average down.

[DeanH3]

Judge seems like a good guy so I'm rooting for him. Both he and Pujols have made an overall lackluster MLB season interesting in the end.

The other thing I find interesting is the lack of price explosion on Judge cards. I admit I haven't followed the pricing much. But a quick search of eBay shows very reasonably priced Judge RC cards. Usually, it seems that in the past there would be a huge uptick in prices. I wonder if it's because 61 isn't the record anymore. Still, he has a legit shot at a triple crown as well.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by DeanH3

Judge seems like a good guy so I'm rooting for him. Both he and Pujols have made an overall lackluster MLB season interesting in the end.

The other thing I find interesting is the lack of price explosion on Judge cards. I admit I haven't followed the pricing much. But a quick search of eBay shows very reasonably priced Judge RC cards. Usually, it seems that in the past there would be a huge uptick in prices. I wonder if it's because 61 isn't the record anymore. Still, he has a legit shot at a triple crown as well.

I think that aside from the huge number of cards out there, and the recent down tick in prices, there’s also the belief that he’s a late bloomer and a big guy with a big strike zone who has had a past history of big guy injuries, that may make several career counting stats unattainable for him. He may shine really bright for a short while, but is he more Albert Belle/Josh Hamilton/Juan Gonzalez then he is Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays or even Mike Trout?

[conor912]

My prediction is he both ties and breaks the record against Boston. Seems only fitting.

[here2havefun]

Originally Posted by DeanH3

The other thing I find interesting is the lack of price explosion on Judge cards. I admit I haven't followed the pricing much. But a quick search of eBay shows very reasonably priced Judge RC cards. Usually, it seems that in the past there would be a huge uptick in prices. I wonder if it's because 61 isn't the record anymore. Still, he has a legit shot at a triple crown as well.

Per CardLadder, Judge's market is up ~196% over the last 6 months (since the start of the season). It's not huge, like 10x, but given the ultra modern market as a whole is down, that's pretty good.