Holds true for stocks and cards

[Snapolit1]

‘I have no doubt, none whatsoever, that we are in a raging mania in all assets. I also have no doubt that I don’t have a clue when that’s going to end.’
— Stanley Druckenmiller

[Bobbycee]

or what happens when it does end.. Soft landing or hard?

[Casey2296]

Hard landing followed by a double down from mommy government, followed by me being able to afford to finish out my "E" sets.

[John1941]

I think when the prices start to fall, they'll fall with a crash, because the investors will leave the hobby like rats fleeing a sinking ship. And the investors have been behind much of the boom.

Though I'll feel bad for the people who lose money on the hobby, I'll enjoy being able to get cards for reasonable prices again.

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by Bobbycee

or what happens when it does end.. Soft landing or hard?

IMO, it largely depends on which era of cards.

The bonkers in artificial scarce ultra-high $$ modern -vs- the bonkers in pre-war and 1950s high condition iconic HOFs, are two completely different types of bonkers.

I bet their landings after the bubble burst will be much different.


Just like the subprime / housing bubble of 2008-2009. The landing was much different in Boston or San Francisco compared to Vegas or Florida.

[egri]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

IMO, it largely depends on which era of cards.

The bonkers in artificial scarce ultra-high $$ modern -vs- the bonkers in pre-war and 1950s high condition iconic HOFs, are two completely different types of bonkers.

I bet their landings after the bubble burst will be much different.


Just like the subprime / housing bubble of 2008-2009. The landing was much different in Boston or San Francisco compared to Vegas or Florida.

I agree, and for vintage I don’t think we’ll see prices back to pre-pandemic levels. They’ll go down, but $1,000 cards that became $5,000 cards may only retreat back to $2-3,000. I think enough new people have been brought into the hobby to raise the floor.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by egri

I agree, and for vintage I don’t think we’ll see prices back to pre-pandemic levels. They’ll go down, but $1,000 cards that became $5,000 cards may only retreat back to $2-3,000. I think enough new people have been brought into the hobby to raise the floor.

I think that's a pretty good call.

Where the real fun will be is the Wander Franco orange refractor cards, and the Jasson Dominguez cracked ice refractor, etc.

Imagine spending $80,000 on a card of one of these unproven guys and seeing them go up in flames. I guess one common refrain is anyone who buys one of these cards has money to burn, but not sure that's always true.

[55koufax]

Why not just get to the bottom line for us CA residents.......

1. A min 5 figure stimulus check from Joe Biden that is specifically to be spent on sportscards.

2. A min 4 figure check of the same from the brilliant CA Gov Gavin Newsome.

So when the crash is upon us, we will have been twice $$ stimulated to spend again (and again....)

[johnlenhardt]

Any thoughts on when the 10's of thousands of backlogged PSA cards are finally graded and how that will impact the market?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by johnlenhardt

Any thoughts on when the 10's of thousands of backlogged PSA cards are finally graded and how that will impact the market?

A lot is modern Junk Era Late 80’s early 90’s Garbage

[troutbum97]

Don’t forget the 201x Limited Pop 1/100 Refractor Foil Signature Patch Garbage.

Originally Posted by Johnny630

A lot is modern Junk Era Late 80’s early 90’s Garbage

[sreader3]

Hi Steve,

I just said my piece in a Net54 post but I guess I was a few hours too late.

I think we are going higher in nominal terms but not necessarily in real terms over the next 24 months.

Who the hell knows?

Scot

[A2000]

I'm selling all stocks and cards and hoarding gasoline

[Exhibitman]

"No one in this world, so far as I know ... has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people."

--H.L. Mencken

"You've got to remember that these are just simple people. ... The common clay of the new West. You know... morons."

[Johnny630]

The time to sell has never been better, the time to buy has never been worse.

That Being Said I don’t know what the hell is going to happen, there is a 50/50 chance in either direction.

[SAllen2556]

If the stimulus is generated by just printing money, then it's not a stimulus, it's a politician's way of raising taxes. I thought that as the supply of money in the economy grows, the value of that money decreases and we get inflation.

Government created inflation is a form of tax because it takes more dollars to buy something, but, what makes it worse for you guys advocating that "we give money to folks who really need it", is that it taxes everyone - rich and poor. We're already seeing inflation due to certain shortages. It's only going to get worse the next 5 years, and eventually, interest rates are going to have to rise to keep up with inflation. And when interest rates rise, poor people are further hurt.

And this is a direct result of government spending money it doesn't have. Doesn't anyone ever ask, "Where is this money coming from?"

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by SAllen2556

If the stimulus is generated by just printing money, then it's not a stimulus, it's a politician's way of raising taxes. I thought that as the supply of money in the economy grows, the value of that money decreases and we get inflation.

Government created inflation is a form of tax because it takes more dollars to buy something, but, what makes it worse for you guys advocating that "we give money to folks who really need it", is that it taxes everyone - rich and poor. We're already seeing inflation due to certain shortages. It's only going to get worse the next 5 years, and eventually, interest rates are going to have to rise to keep up with inflation. And when interest rates rise, poor people are further hurt.

And this is a direct result of government spending money it doesn't have. Doesn't anyone ever ask, "Where is this money coming from?"

Agree 100%