Is it time to ask AGAIN if T206 prices are falling?

[iwantitiwinit]

I started a thread yesterday for Mile High winnings and stated I won a card for what I thought was a very reasonable price. In that thread Eric Summers mentioned he had repurchased a card for significantly less than he had recently sold it for (others stated similar low prices). Given that I thought it was worth going back and looking at all the t206 prices in the auction and in my opinion not only were the prices reasonable they were shockingly low.

Why? Did REA's auction running relatively concurrently have an impact (there is only so much cash to go around)? Septembers stock market pull back? Do collectors have T206 collection fatigue? Have the deep pocketed T206 collectors pulled out of the market? What do you think? Any other examples of recent "bargains".

Some notables from the Mile High Auction (I'm not calling out MH just noting falling prices):

The cycle backed cards went ridiculously cheap PSA 4's under $75 with the juice and PSA 3's even cheaper;
EPDG's also went cheaply a few psa 4's below $100;
Lundgrens went cheap;

This exact Bill Hart went for over $900 in a recent Love of the Game Auction and goes for $300 less in MH. I also noted that other recently auctioned cards were re-auctioned here and the flipper did not make out well.

[Luke]

Speaking only for myself, I simply missed this auction. A lot of the Sovereigns and EPDGs would have ended higher if I hadn't. It's possible some other people who would normally bid didn't realize this one was happening.

[JustinD]

I think over saturation of the auction house market will naturally lead to this happening.

I think eventually we will see a few bow out as concurrent auctions will lead people to choose based on budget and just not being able to bid on 60 things at once. Ebay needed competition, but the opening was huge and many people jumped into the ring. That group will narrow as time goes on.

Till the amount of sales equals demand you will see things sell lower and slip through the cracks. Supply and demand rules all and that rule is unbreakable.

We may also be seeing a bit of a buyer exodus from the auction scene as some of the prices are rediculous. There is no reason on earth to pay 3 times the previous value of a month ago just because you are getting it from a well known auction house. The gambler mentality of auctions have garnered some well heeled spending addicts (much to the happiness of the ownership) but the reasonable people are going to step back and remember the housing prices of the early 2000s.

[Edwolf1963]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I think over saturation of the auction house market will naturally lead to this happening.

+1

[t206fix]

Originally Posted by LukeLyon

Speaking only for myself, I simply missed this auction. A lot of the Sovereigns and EPDGs would have ended higher if I hadn't. It's possible some other people who would normally bid didn't realize this one was happening.

I agree with Luke. I didn't know about this auction. If so, I would have bid on a lot of these also.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by t206fix

I agree with Luke. I didn't know about this auction. If so, I would have bid on a lot of these also.

The auction was posted on the front page of this forum the morning of the day it ended and is still the 2nd to last thread on this page. I guess not everyone that posts reads the other threads?

ps....I am going with over saturation of the auction market for depressed prices.

[bn2cardz]

It is also the time of the year. I have noticed that Oct-Dec seems to bring lower auction prices. I have believed it starts with the over saturation of competing fall auctions leading into the holidays where collectors stop spending money on themselves and save for holiday gifts.

[rjackson44]

A card is worth what someone is willing to pay for it 😎

[4815162342]

What do you guys think about the hammer on the PSA 4 Doyle Nat'l last night? It was around $20k less than the last time it was on REA in 2009. And to add insult to injury, a PSA 3 sold for $414,750 in 2012.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

What do you guys think about the hammer on the PSA 4 Doyle Nat'l last night? It was around $20k less than the last time it was on REA in 2009. And to add insult to injury, a PSA 3 sold for $414,750 in 2012.

prices are falling....I thought the 52 topps mantles as well on the mile high and rea auctions fell as well except the BVG..

[iwantitiwinit]

REA Elberfeld SGC 60 goes for only $600, I can remember selling a PSA 5 in 2012 at $1900. Now granted psa in general sells for higher than sgc but $600 for a 5 is a weak price. This is just one example of last nights prices but thats drastic.

[MVSNYC]

The really rare pieces will always hold their value...look at last night's BL460, Drum (which was in very poor condition), Uzit, Lenox's, SL Hindu's, CB's, etc...all went high.

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

The really rare pieces will always hold their value....

Not true at all. Consider the T206 Doyle selling for $260,000. Purchased Spring 2009 for $329,000. Sold yesterday for $260,000. Loss of $69,000.

However, it was much worse than that. Consider the alternative to spending $329,000 on a card in Spring 2009. The Dow was at 8,200. Now it is at 17,200. $329,000 invested Spring 2009 in the Dow would be $690,000 now. Investment opportunity loss was $361,000. Adding the actual dollar loss of $69,000 means real loss was $430,000 in today's dollars.

But, it gets worse than that. Stocks in the Dow pay dividends averaging about 3% per year. From Spring 2009 to now, dividends would have been about $114,000. Adding this to the investment opportunity loss of $361,000 and the actual dollar loss of $69,000 means real loss was about $544,000.

It actually gets worse still if you consider that the dividends of $114,000 could have been reinvested into the Dow. That's another $20,000.

All told, the "investor" lost an additional $0.5 million on top of the perceived loss of $69,000.

[Joshchisox08]

I sure hope that the prices are going down =)
The cheaper the more I can get my greedy mitts on !!!

[CMIZ5290]

In my opinion, PSA graded T206 prices are fine. You can never go wrong with Cobb, never.

[bbcard1]

I also think the T206s are very solid at the bottom, which is where I generally play. They seem to have crept up a little bit on the low end and seem to be holding.

The Hart is an interesting case. I can see it being a card that would have pretty wide sale price swings in that the cut makes it a fairly unattractive card with a very attractive holder.