Why has market gone crazy? And outlook?

[GregMitch34]

Hello again. Some may recognize my name from awhile back when I was a regular poster here and solid (I believe) buyer and seller....Starting two years ago I decided to sell off about 90% of my pre-war cards, and almost all the pricier ones. I had reached a certain age, the market seemed flat and Covid had arrived, and baseball obsessed baby boomers about to (maybe) fade out....Anyway, for the next year I sold at auction and did pretty well, no complaints....But imagine my shock when, not long ago, I noticed the rather sudden surge in prices starting in 2021, and still accelerating (see: REA this week), where many of the better cards had doubled or even quadrupled in price (Ruths, Gehrigs, Cobbs, even a 1953 Mays, and some t206 etc.)....I had sold at exactly the "wrong" time...

So what happened? Just investment craziness in a time of uncertainty and NFTs etc.? Other factors? I am out of touch with any past analysis on this board. And what happens next? For example, that big climb in t206s prices--does that linger now or does the reality of many examples for most cards in the set arrive and we see a major fall back? And even true with more rare Ruth and Gehrig cards? Thanks for any reply, even if just guessing....

[drcy]

Murphy's Law

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

that big climb in t206s prices--does that linger now or does the reality of many examples for most cards in the set arrive and we see a major fall back? And even true with more rare Ruth and Gehrig cards? Thanks for any reply, even if just guessing....

Yes. And I am just guessing.

If I knew the future I wouldn't be pondering it so much. But I do ponder it a lot more now than before. The numbers are just so crazy compared with the 'good ol' days'. If it wasn't for the tax hit, I'd sell off and start again.

[parkplace33]

Greg, great questions.

For why, personally, I think a whole lot of money has been diverted into cards and card services over the past 5 years. Just another investment avenue.

For future, unknown and I hate to speculate. But imagine this scenario:

You bought a vintage card three years ago for 10k
You can sell it now for 50k
OR you can possibly sell it in one year for 100k

Years ago, this scenario would have been farfetched. Nowadays, it is reality.

[CitizunKane]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

For example, that big climb in t206s prices--does that linger now or does the reality of many examples for most cards in the set arrive and we see a major fall back?

It's been truly remarkable to see, particularly the $15-$20 commons now selling for $50. That's one area that I think might soften a bit - I know that demand is high (I'm a buyer myself!), but poor condition SC and Piedmont T206 commons are not scarce. If anything, I see them settling at a price a little lower than they are now, but still quite a bit higher than pre-pandemic.

T206 Hall of Famers (particularly those with name recognition), though? I just can't see them dropping much absent a generational financial crisis or an event that leads to people leaving the hobby en masse.

[Johnny630]

The Rich Got Richer....ie the people spending 6 six figures at ease in auctions on slabbed higher end cards. The middle class got a little richer... drove up middle grade 4-7 graded cards and raw cards in VG-EMXT Shape...the poor got poorer but they still bought an occasional beatter poor to good shape card.

Notice now the off grade stuff has flatlined not talking rare or key graded stars talking the average. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I think middle late next year things could be interesting. Meanwhile for this year and early next year i see ZERO signs of a recessions. The market will be higher then it started Jan 01 2021.

[Touch'EmAll]

Lets put it this way - I am not selling any nice vintage to then drop the coin into the stock market. Nope.

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Lets put it this way - I am not selling any nice vintage to then drop the coin into the stock market. Nope.

..... but if you do sell any nice vintage, maybe Bitcoin?

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by CitizunKane

It's been truly remarkable to see, particularly the $15-$20 commons now selling for $50.

Been noticing the increase on commons for the last year and especially the last several months.

Many of you know that I have started down the T206 route but prior to that - I had been a 1950s collector for a long long time.

Just pull up eBay Search - "1955 Topps PSA" and look at the double digit (and lately triple digit) ASK on common Cards and absolutely ridiculous ask on stars and semi stars.

Extremely disgustipatin............sigh

[Directly]

With 2022 HRO DC - BATMAN Mythic- Physical Hybrid Card - Unredeemed selling in the $2,000 range, I wouldn't worry to much about vintage sports cards prices collapsing anytime soon--MOO

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by Directly

With 2022 HRO DC - BATMAN Mythic- Physical Hybrid Card - Unredeemed selling in the $2,000 range, I wouldn't worry to much about vintage sports cards prices collapsing anytime soon--MOO

LOL - Don't even have a clue as to WHAT THAT IS

[wolf441]

Originally Posted by Directly

With 2022 HRO DC - BATMAN Mythic- Physical Hybrid Card - Unredeemed selling in the $2,000 range, I wouldn't worry to much about vintage sports cards prices collapsing anytime soon--MOO

LOL, I read the first 8 words of your post and thought it was another Bitcoin scammer!

[JollyElm]

I continue to live by my statement:
"Overpaying yesterday is simply underpaying tomorrow."

[Gorditadogg]

There are two reasons card demand can increase: either there are more collectors or existing collectors are buying more cards. I think it's a bit of both and mostly driven by covid.

There were a lot of people sitting at home with nothing to do that decided to clean out their closets, and when they did they found half-completed baseball card collections. Many ended up organizing and adding to their cards.

At the same time a lot of people stopped commuting to work, eating out, and going on trips, so they had extra cash to spend. One outlet for that money, new and existing collectors, was buying more cards.

The big question is what will happen now, now that we all have more choices on spending our money. I am skeptical that the level of new collectors will continue, especially with the steady decline in interest in baseball.

And without new collectors, that just leaves all of us buying each other's cards.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[GregMitch34]

It appears, judging from latest REA, that the (probably) new, "investment" driven, collectors are truly buying by PSA grade, at least for good t206s and maybe in some other cases, without close attention to "scarcity." Myself and I'm sure many others who bought such cards in the past would usually research at least "how many/how many higher" and disparities in recent prices etc. but now it seems that if it's a star card at PSA 5 or greater, or a common at, say, PSA 6 or 7, the offers in most cases are the same, no matter how (relatively) scarce or common a card might be....

They DO seem to value centering, at least....

[Andrew T206]

Speaking as a new T206 collector who has been completely out of baseball cards since the early 1990s, here is my personal take. I collected baseball cards as a kid starting around 1986. I couldn't get enough 1987 Topps. A 1989 UD Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card was going to pay for my retirement. Topps Stadium Club cards looked like the Mona Lisa. I knew of the T206 Wagner (who didn't!) but literally nothing more about the set nor where to get them nor did I care. It was all about the the next new thing!

Then the bottom dropped out and I stopped collecting and life went on. From school, to getting a job, to getting married and having kids, 30 years flew by in the blink of an eye. At some point, though, things settled down - job was steady, kids were a bit older and were at school all day and the desire for a hobby resurfaced as my son and I would watch more and more baseball games together.

New baseball cards were of no interest to me. They were now TOO premium, TOO gimmicky and everything was left to too much chance. To spend multiple hundreds of dollars or more on modern day card seemed insane. But to spend multiple hundreds of dollars on a card from 1909 seemed incredibly reasonable to me! Stuff I could never afford before (or I has assumed I could never afford) was all now within reach.

And if that was what I desired, how could I start anywhere other than with T206?

The final catch is this - given when I started collecting I had NO IDEA that prices has spiked. For all I knew it could have been a steady growth, flatline or decline over the last few decades. I am completely missing that part of history so paying $50 for a 100+ year old card of some guy nobody has ever heard of from a team that barely ever existed seemed exactly 0% crazy to me.

So for me the price increase is a result of two things:

- People of my age who collected in the 1980s/90s as kids who had to get through "life" first before getting back into collecting (including having the disposable income to do so)

- Those same people having absolutely no idea about what prices "should" be

Now I can't get enough. I love baseball cards again!

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by Andrew T206

Speaking as a new T206 collector who has been completely out of baseball cards since the early 1990s, here is my personal take. I collected baseball cards as a kid starting around 1986. I couldn't get enough 1987 Topps. A 1989 UD Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card was going to pay for my retirement. Topps Stadium Club cards looked like the Mona Lisa. I knew of the T206 Wagner (who didn't!) but literally nothing more about the set nor where to get them nor did I care. It was all about the the next new thing!

Then the bottom dropped out and I stopped collecting and life went on. From school, to getting a job, to getting married and having kids, 30 years flew by in the blink of an eye. At some point, though, things settled down - job was steady, kids were a bit older and were at school all day and the desire for a hobby resurfaced as my son and I would watch more and more baseball games together.

New baseball cards were of no interest to me. They were now TOO premium, TOO gimmicky and everything was left to too much chance. To spend multiple hundreds of dollars or more on modern day card seemed insane. But to spend multiple hundreds of dollars on a card from 1909 seemed incredibly reasonable to me! Stuff I could never afford before (or I has assumed I could never afford) was all now within reach.

And if that was what I desired, how could I start anywhere other than with T206?

The final catch is this - given when I started collecting I had NO IDEA that prices has spiked. For all I knew it could have been a steady growth, flatline or decline over the last few decades. I am completely missing that part of history so paying $50 for a 100+ year old card of some guy nobody has ever heard of from a team that barely ever existed seemed exactly 0% crazy to me.

So for me the price increase is a result of two things:

- People of my age who collected in the 1980s/90s as kids who had to get through "life" first before getting back into collecting (including having the disposable income to do so)

- Those same people having absolutely no idea about what prices "should" be

Now I can't get enough. I love baseball cards again!

Bingo!! I resemble this remark!! A foot in my love of 70's and 80's cards (mostly unopened cases and boxes at this point) and a love of the e90's caramel cards.....

Welcome back!