How many fake autographs out there?

[homerunhitter]

With tpas slabbing a ton of fake autos and now reading on threads that even topps factory certified autographs are being faked and produced by scammers,in your opinion, what percentage of fake autographs do you think are out there in our hobby? Specifically eBay? I would say 70-80%

[5-Tool Player]

Too many fake autographs out there........I'd agree with you to a point, but I'd say at least 60 %

IMO

5-Tool-Player

[Deertick]

Overall on any given day? I'd say 85-90%. Maybe even higher in the entertainment arena. PSA (and some others) are low, but still out there. To paraphrase Jim Stinson "A glass of water with a drop of urine becomes a glass of urine.", so blind acceptance will bite you in the ass WAY more than diligent research.

[homerunhitter]

85-90%!? Yikes!!! I wonder why even collect autographs at this point. And before someone says it….I know I know!!! go do my own research before buying but guess what? When I’m an old fart and go to resell my “researched” autos, potential buyers are not going to give a rats ass that I did my research! They could care less if me, you or do one one else says an autograph is authentic! (They would rather it slabbed authentic by a TPA like psa or Beckett or a jsa sticker on it!)

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

85-90%!? Yikes!!! I wonder why even collect autographs at this point. And before someone says it….I know I know!!! go do my own research before buying but guess what? When I’m an old fart and go to resell my “researched” autos, potential buyers are not going to give a rats ass that I did my research! They could care less if me, you or do one one else says an autograph is authentic! (They would rather it slabbed authentic by a TPA like psa or Beckett or a jsa sticker on it!)

F*#k the TPAs. Biggest scam ever put over on the collecting public. Their self-proclaimed "expertise" is no better--and often far worse--than that of a long-time collector. And that vaunted CoA?



"This Certificate represents my opinion. Nothing more. If I'm ever found out to be wrong, tough shit. I never promised you anything. You have no recourse. (But I still have your money.)"


If selling your collection to a bunch of know-nothings has got you worried, consign it to an auction house. They'll deal with "authentication."

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

It's a source of personal annoyance whenever I see some news reporter saying "90% of all autographs in today's marketplace are fake" with an air of authority. First of all, they know nothing about the subject matter; they're just doing a news story. Secondly, no matter how hard anyone tries, regardless of how much knowledge they may have, an indisputable percentage will never be properly ascertained. It's impossible.

I can say, however, that when taking every athlete's autograph into consideration, the total figure is nowhere near 90%.

Remember, we are talking about counterfeit pieces, not secretarials, not rubber stamps, not autopens, not clubhouse. While those are not authentic, neither are they forgeries. They also represent such a small percentage of the overall number of signed pieces in existence. There's just no way that forgeries account for the 90% figure that's so effortlessly thrown around by the media.

Michael Jordan? Mantle? Lots.

Bobby Shantz? Virgil Trucks? Not so much.

Will somebody forge a nearly valueless autograph? Certainly. I've seen a three inch stack of fake Bob Feller 8X10's, yet the vast majority of his autographed material is of course free of problems.

[Georj]

I would have to agree that the percentage of fake autographs is no where near 90%. I would put that number well below 50% maybe in the high 30-40%.

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by BillyCox3

It's a source of personal annoyance whenever I see some news reporter saying "90% of all autographs in today's marketplace are fake" with an air of authority. First of all, they know nothing about the subject matter; they're just doing a news story. Secondly, no matter how hard anyone tries, regardless of how much knowledge they may have, an indisputable percentage will never be properly ascertained. It's impossible.

I can say, however, that when taking every athlete's autograph into consideration, the total figure is nowhere near 90%.

Remember, we are talking about counterfeit pieces, not secretarials, not rubber stamps, not autopens, not clubhouse. While those are not authentic, neither are they forgeries. They also represent such a small percentage of the overall number of signed pieces in existence. There's just no way that forgeries account for the 90% figure that's so effortlessly thrown around by the media.

Michael Jordan? Mantle? Lots.

Bobby Shantz? Virgil Trucks? Not so much.

Will somebody forge a nearly valueless autograph? Certainly. I've seen a three inch stack of fake Bob Feller 8X10's, yet the vast majority of his autographed material is of course free of problems.

I'm not sure I've seen many news reporters throwing around numbers they made up. Usually they are sourced from knowledgeable industry 'experts'. Anyone who says 50% of Ruth autos EVER. cannot be proven, since there is no way to get the total # of autographs of anyone in history. You are basing on a known existing number, which may be a fraction of the true population.
BUT if you say 50% of Ruth autos offered in May 2022, (or last year, or ending today on eBay) are inauthentic, the number may be easily defensible.

I'm not going to get into B.S. COA's or specific TPGs that seemed to be set up for scammers. But if any TPG certifies a photocopy, print, facsimile, stamp, secretarial, clubhouse, or autopen as authentic, that is a mistake that is made a very small percentage of the time overall. (some individual players have a higher incidence).

The OP asked about FAKE (inauthentic) autographs, which is different than FORGED autographs. Any photocopy, print, facsimile, stamp, secretarial, clubhouse, autopen, or non-malicious forgery, ALL get added to the side of FAKE with the actual forgeries when presented as authentic.

My reading of the OPs question was "What is the percentage of inauthentic autographs that are specifically on eBay at any given time?" NOT how many forgeries have been sold in relation to all possible autographs ever signed, or even a subset of fakes TPG slabbed in relation to the pop report.

Hope this makes some sense as I haven't had coffee yet.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

with tpas slabbing a ton of fake autos and now reading on threads that even topps factory certified autographs are being faked and produced by scammers,in your opinion, what percentage of fake autographs do you think are out there in our hobby? Specifically ebay? I would say 70-80%

90-95% easy

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

90-95% easy

I'm sorry, but that is a baseless, unfounded, and quite absurd statement.

Athletes spend an astounding amount of time signing their names every single day. As an "in person" autograph hound for over 35 years, I personally stood outside hotels, stadiums, golf courses, fan events, etc. and literally got thousands of signatures from athletes every year...and there were 15 or 20 guys just like me in my primary collecting venue every single day. When you extrapolate that to every major league city in the country (and I was in one of the smallest markets in Cincy), plus every minor league stadium, plus every PGA event, and on and on I could go, there are more authentically signed items than you could ever imagine in existence.

In addition, MANY former players are on a perpetual autograph signing tour through life. I have personally been in the back room at autograph shows like the National. If you have never seen it, it is literally set up like a large warehouse production with thousands upon thousands of items for the signing guests to sign for wholesale dealers throughout the country before and after their public 2 hour appearance. Many of them sit in that back room being fed a continual assembly line of item after item for the entire day (or multiple days). I'm not exagerating when I say it looks like a mountain of items, stacked on table after table. And this goes on all throughout the year, non-stop. The number of private signings, and players charging fees to sign items through the mail...there is a continual glut of authentically signed material pouring into the marketplace every day.

Then there are the card companies...ever notice the numbering on some of the "limited" autographed cards inserted in packs? Sometimes it's in the thousands. Someone above mentioned some of these showing up having been faked...these are rare, few and far between exceptions. (But these miniscule instances grab headlines and therefore become myth-building fodder for the masses.)

And we have the major companies like Fanatics, Tristar, formerly Steiners and on and on who have these guys signing their arms off to keep the product coming...I'm getting annoyed just having to type this stuff just to dispel the asinine "estimates" I see some people just randomly throwing out there. My God...if Pete Rose hasn't himself signed his name 5 million times (at least!) in his life alone I would be shocked.

Are there fake autographs in the market? Absolutely...plenty of them.
Do some people get taken by fraudsters every day? Yes
Do major TPA's mistakenly authenticate forgeries? Yes, it does happen, but this represents a very small percentage of their work... it's the exception and not the rule.
Are 90 to 95% of all autographs in the marketplace fake? If you believe this to be true, I do believe there are billows of smoke blowing out your rectum.

(Disclaimer - While this reply was typed citing Chuck's quote, it is not intended personally toward him...It is a reaction to all of the ludicrous, unfounded statements and percentages being thrown around in this thread as though they are fact.)

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Kaneen

I'm sorry, but that is a baseless, unfounded, and quite absurd statement.

Athletes spend an astounding amount of time signing their names every single day. As an "in person" autograph hound for over 35 years, I personally stood outside hotels, stadiums, golf courses, fan events, etc. and literally got thousands of signatures from athletes every year...and there were 15 or 20 guys just like me in my primary collecting venue every single day. When you extrapolate that to every major league city in the country (and I was in one of the smallest markets in Cincy), plus every minor league stadium, plus every PGA event, and on and on I could go, there are more authentically signed items than you could ever imagine in existence.

In addition, MANY former players are on a perpetual autograph signing tour through life. I have personally been in the back room at autograph shows like the National. If you have never seen it, it is literally set up like a large warehouse production with thousands upon thousands of items for the signing guests to sign for wholesale dealers throughout the country before and after their public 2 hour appearance. Many of them sit in that back room being fed a continual assembly line of item after item for the entire day (or multiple days). I'm not exagerating when I say it looks like a mountain of items, stacked on table after table. And this goes on all throughout the year, non-stop. The number of private signings, and players charging fees to sign items through the mail...there is a continual glut of authentically signed material pouring into the marketplace every day.

Then there are the card companies...ever notice the numbering on some of the "limited" autographed cards inserted in packs? Sometimes it's in the thousands. Someone above mentioned some of these showing up having been faked...these are rare, few and far between exceptions. (But these miniscule instances grab headlines and therefore become myth-building fodder for the masses.)

And we have the major companies like Fanatics, Tristar, formerly Steiners and on and on who have these guys signing their arms off to keep the product coming...I'm getting annoyed just having to type this stuff just to dispel the asinine "estimates" I see some people just randomly throwing out there. My God...if Pete Rose hasn't himself signed his name 5 million times (at least!) in his life alone I would be shocked.

Are there fake autographs in the market? Absolutely...plenty of them.
Do some people get taken by fraudsters every day? Yes
Do major TPA's mistakenly authenticate forgeries? Yes, it does happen, but this represents a very small percentage of their work... it's the exception and not the rule.
Are 90 to 95% of all autographs in the marketplace fake? If you believe this to be true, I do believe there are billows of smoke blowing out your rectum.

(Disclaimer - While this reply was typed citing Chuck's quote, it is not intended personally toward him...It is a reaction to all of the ludicrous, unfounded statements and percentages being thrown around in this thread as though they are fact.)

search the #1 most searched autograph and report back to me, LOL "Mantle, Mickey", Then Jordan, Michael, Jeter, Derek...Koufax, Sandy. Trout trout pretty little trout. One more splash and come right out. 99% FORGERIES. Try "Autograph cuts" 99.9 % FORGERIES. I'd rather have cold cuts from San Carlos Deli. No chance of fake Nitrates.

Almost as absurd as my statement 3 years ago that baseball cards is a "billion dollar fraud." Members thought I was nuts. Now most with just a sliver of a brain can clearly do the math. It's a multi billion dollar fraud.

[Deertick]

Apparently the "reporter" made up talking to PSA , FBI, and UDA. This was 17 years ago. I'm sure it has gotten better, not worse. Right?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sign-of...ke-autographs/

"Only six percent of all autographed Beatles memorabilia is authentic, according to PSA/DNA Authentication Services, a California-based organization that examines collectibles. Only 24 percent of Marilyn Monroe and Elvis Presley signatures PSA/DNA has examined were genuine, and only 33 percent of more than 10,000 Woods and Michael Jordan autographs they scrutinized were real."

This is a long read, but interesting:

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/a...wFullText=true

[ullmandds]

In my opinion...too many fakes out there to ever invest/spend any serious money on them.

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

search the #1 most searched autograph and report back to me, LOL "Mantle, Mickey", Then Jordan, Michael, Jeter, Derek...Koufax, Sandy. Trout trout pretty little trout. One more splash and come right out. 99% FORGERIES. Try "Autograph cuts" 99.9 % FORGERIES. I'd rather have cold cuts from San Carlos Deli. No chance of fake Nitrates.

So now it's "99% and 99.9% FORGERIES"...I suggest you don't stand near a smoke alarm. Every one of those Last Name, First Name guys you mentioned have tons of forged autographs in the marketplace. They also all signed their arms off for many, many years. There are tons of legitimate authentic signatures available as well (even on eBay). Your percentage figure is absurd, and you are making a case for yourself that you may indeed be nuts...no need to just rely on the members here just thinking you are.

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Almost as absurd as my statement 3 years ago that baseball cards is a "billion dollar fraud." Members thought I was nuts. Now most with just a sliver of a brain can clearly do the math. It's a multi billion dollar fraud.

If you truly believe that that's all it is, then why are you here day after day participating? Are you nuts?

Chuck, I don't disagree with you that there are large numbers of fraudulent components within this hobby/industry...I just also happen to believe (know for a fact) that there are large numbers of legitimate, honest, well-intentioned components in this hobby/industry. I don't assert that you are nuts. (I don't know you and can't make that judgement.) I do assert that the hyperbolic numbers you are spouting are completely nuts. And I'm guessing you already know this.

[sreader3]

I think it is beyond dispute that the higher priced the auto, the more likely it is to be a fake. So, in the case of 72 Topps baseball, if it is a Clemente or Munson, the chances that it is a fake are extremely high — well over 50% (perhaps 90% or more). But those are the exceptions. If we are talking about Fred Scherman or Tom Burgmeier, or even Rollie Fingers (HOF) or Bert Blyleven (HOF), almost all of the autos on eBay are good (and there are a lot of them available). I’ll stick with 5% bad for commons and 10-15% bad for Hall of Famers averaged out—although it may be somewhat higher.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Kaneen

If you truly believe that that's all it is, then why are you here day after day participating? Are you nuts?

.

MULTI BILLIONS!!!

"The GMV, or gross merchandise value, of cards sold on the platform totals over $2 billion so far this year, roughly $1 billion in each quarter. The number represents a 175% increase from the same six month period in 2020. " every sale was a fraud!

[pt7455]

Just personal experience. I have several thousand autographed cards some my father had signed in the 40’s and 50’s and a ton I purchased on eBay etc raw with no COA etc. I’m by no means an autograph expert but I do look at each autograph and make the best determination I can. With that being said over the last 6 months I’ve sent around 400 cards to PSA for authentication and I’ve had a total of 4 come back as questionable where they were not graded by PSA. Maybe I’m just lucky but I think saying 90% of all autographs of HOFers are fake is really high? Again just my opinion. Also the cards I sent in were all HOFers except for Roger Maris and Tony C.


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[homerunhitter]

i agree 90% is way too high of an estimate.

[homerunhitter]

makes me want to only collect factory certified pack pulled autographs only! you guys are right....TPAs suck!

[theshleps]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

makes me want to only collect factory certified pack pulled autographs only! you guys are right....TPAs suck!

Some of those topps originals especially 2004 Aaron, Mays etc are forged and there is no way to look up cert #'s etc so beware

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

makes me want to only collect factory certified pack pulled autographs only! you guys are right....TPAs suck!

Originally Posted by theshleps

Some of those topps originals especially 2004 Aaron, Mays etc are forged and there is no way to look up cert #'s etc so beware

Not only are some forged but there is a ring counterfeiting the cards and adding forged autos to them.

I agree with many that say you need to learn autos to collect them.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by pt7455

Just personal experience. I have several thousand autographed cards some my father had signed in the 40’s and 50’s and a ton I purchased on eBay etc raw with no COA etc. I’m by no means an autograph expert but I do look at each autograph and make the best determination I can. With that being said over the last 6 months I’ve sent around 400 cards to PSA for authentication and I’ve had a total of 4 come back as questionable where they were not graded by PSA. Maybe I’m just lucky but I think saying 90% of all autographs of HOFers are fake is really high? Again just my opinion. Also the cards I sent in were all HOFers except for Roger Maris and Tony C.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hi Patrick, I'm not sure if you are sending while Keating on vacation, but I have gone from a 10-15% fail rate to 40-50% fail rate on autos from multiple sources over the last 2 years. AND some are players who are living or recently deceased, mostly from the 52 topps set. Nippy Jones, Lou Brissie, Bo Kelly to name a few. Each of which I've probably handled a dozen or so copies TTM! I'd rather them err on the side of caution, but it is getting a little silly

[pt7455]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Hi Patrick, I'm not sure if you are sending while Keating on vacation, but I have gone from a 10-15% fail rate to 40-50% fail rate on autos from multiple sources over the last 2 years. AND some are players who are living or recently deceased, mostly from the 52 topps set. Nippy Jones, Lou Brissie, Bo Kelly to name a few. Each of which I've probably handled a dozen or so copies TTM! I'd rather them err on the side of caution, but it is getting a little silly

Absolutely understand! Again this is just my personal experience and of course the next batch I send in all could fail. I don’t believe that 90% of all autographs are fakes but of course there are many out there. I did have a 58 Ted Williams signed in front of me in the 80’s that PSA failed I thought that was kind of funny! I do agree I would rather have any grading company fail a card if their not sure. Again just personal experience!
Best
Patrick’s


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[homerunhitter]

are there any other players they are counterfeiting besides mays and aaron to look out for? its a shame that people cant just collect without some dickhead ass wipes ruining the hobby by forging and counterfeiting cards/autographs.

[Hankphenom]

To state the obvious, wherever there is money to be made, fraudsters will come in to try to make it. That's a universal principle, so I don't know why it should come as any surprise in this hobby. And I would think that fact might make collectors, especially those who don't have the time or interest to become experts themselves in such a broad collecting universe, to have a fairly profound appreciation for the TPAs, who, at least the big boys, have shown themselves to be pretty darn good over the years. So instead of being in the wild west of several decades ago, an intelligent autograph collector these days has the option, for a relatively small fee compared to the value of these things, of having a serious expert, who has devoted his career to their study, of passing judgement. OK, so anyone with a collection in the thousands, or even hundreds, has stories of TPA error one way or the other--passed bad ones or rejected ones signed in person--but what do you suppose the percentage is of those mistakes compared to the ones they get right. Would you accept that % in one of YOUR employees? I think so. Instead of vilification, maybe they should get a little more love for making this expensive hobby/investment safe to indulge in, knowing there won't be any nasty surprises when it's time for you or your heirs to sell. Just my two cents.