1914 Baltimore Ruth....Inflation

[Leon]

I think this guy's description needs an update. The days of a 100k - 1914 Ruth, in any kind of presentable condition, passed by at least a few years ago. Certainly this is one of the all time great cards and high on my want/wish list. (I doubt very seriously I will ever own one)

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1914-BABE-RU...item2804576d2a


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[trdcrdkid]

Another seller has the same item at a BIN price of $999.99, and they admit in the description that it's a reprint. Are they just hoping some sucker will come along and hit "Buy" without reading the full description?

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think this guy's description needs an update. The days of a 100k - 1914 Ruth, in any kind of presentable condition, passed by at least a few years ago. Certainly this is one of the all time great cards and high on my want/wish list. (I doubt very seriously I will ever own one)

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1914-BABE-RU...item2804576d2a


.

+++1. An example in Poor to Fair sold for $152,000 in 2007, and for $450,000 in 2013 in the same grade. There is one in VG or thereabouts condition out there, and as I've predicted before, it will hit 8 figures in my lifetime, just based on straight-forward math--a really good collectible will appreciate at the rate of 12% compounded annually or even better. If I live another 30 years, which is completely in line with the ages my mother and father reached, then even the poor to fair example will have doubled in value under the rule of 72's (simply divide the number of years it takes to double the item's value into 72 to arrive at the annual compound rate of interest--if it doubles every six years on average, 72 divided by 6 = 12%) at just that 12% rate FIVE TIMES during that span. Which means that it will be worth about $900,000 in 2019; $1.8 million in 2025; $3.6 million in 2031; $7.2 million in 2036; and $14.2 million in 2041. While the rate of appreciation usually slows a bit as the absolute value escalates higher and higher, you can see by the simple math that 8 figures within 30 or so years is easily within reach for the highest graded example. Kinda wows you, doesn't it? But that's basically how the best coins and cars have behaved--an early '60's Ferrari in presentable condition is now worth 7-8 figures, any time, any place. A 1967 L88 Corvette (427 racing engine, with other racing performance options--just 20 made that year) is $3.5 to $4 Million now. They were certainly available for low five figures in the early to mid-'70s.

I'll never own one of the 1914 Baltimore News Ruths either, but there may be cards out there that can eventually come close to those values, but which are much more affordable now. How to find them? Just study and stay on the cutting edge, well ahead of the pack, and make your best picks, following the simple formula of value being a function of rarity, significance and condition. The trick, of course, is to analyze correctly with regard to rarity and significance, and figure that collecting trends will change, as they have significantly in the last 25 years in cards, as well as in cars and coins (as just one possible example, I don't think, that if a 1914 Ruth reaches those figures, a 1925 Exhibit Lou Gehrig rookie will still be well under $100K in ExMt--there are more of the Gehrigs, of course, but not that many more--it is still a very tough card to acquire in presentable condition).

Highest regards,

Larry

PS: The first 1914 Baltimore News coming out for public sale that I am aware of was part of the Copeland sale/auction--circa 1989 or so. The price then? Just $6,000!

[MattyC]

Could not agree more on the Exhibit Gehrig RC. It's my favorite pick to explode sometime down the line. The man, his legacy, his performance on the field, the card's rarity, it being his RC... No one knows what the future holds but as a Gehrig fan and constant student of cards, I love that card.

[Leon]

Not sure about 8 figures, re: 1914 Ruth, but my guess is it is the next 7 figure pre-war card (when a nice one comes out...and in the future a bit)

Originally Posted by ls7plus

+++1. An example in Poor to Fair sold for $152,000 in 2007, and for $450,000 in 2013 in the same grade. There is one in VG or thereabouts condition out there, and as I've predicted before, it will hit 8 figures in my lifetime, just based on straight-forward math--a really good collectible will appreciate at the rate of 12% compounded annually or even better. If I live another 30 years, which is completely in line with the ages my mother and father reached, then even the poor to fair example will have doubled in value under the rule of 72's (simply divide the number of years it takes to double the item's value into 72 to arrive at the annual compound rate of interest--if it doubles every six years on average, 72 divided by 6 = 12%) at just that 12% rate FIVE TIMES during that span. Which means that it will be worth about $900,000 in 2019; $1.8 million in 2025; $3.6 million in 2031; $7.2 million in 2036; and $14.2 million in 2041. While the rate of appreciation usually slows a bit as the absolute value escalates higher and higher, you can see by the simple math that 8 figures within 30 or so years is easily within reach for the highest graded example. Kinda wows you, doesn't it? But that's basically how the best coins and cars have behaved--an early '60's Ferrari in presentable condition is now worth 7-8 figures, any time, any place. A 1967 L88 Corvette (427 racing engine, with other racing performance options--just 20 made that year) is $3.5 to $4 Million now. They were certainly available for low five figures in the early to mid-'70s.

I'll never own one of the 1914 Baltimore News Ruths either, but there may be cards out there that can eventually come close to those values, but which are much more affordable now. How to find them? Just study and stay on the cutting edge, well ahead of the pack, and make your best picks, following the simple formula of value being a function of rarity, significance and condition. The trick, of course, is to analyze correctly with regard to rarity and significance, and figure that collecting trends will change, as they have significantly in the last 25 years in cards, as well as in cars and coins (as just one possible example, I don't think, that if a 1914 Ruth reaches those figures, a 1925 Exhibit Lou Gehrig rookie will still be well under $100K in ExMt--there are more of the Gehrigs, of course, but not that many more--it is still a very tough card to acquire in presentable condition).

Highest regards,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Could not agree more on the Exhibit Gehrig RC. It's my favorite pick to explode sometime down the line. The man, his legacy, his performance on the field, the card's rarity, it being his RC... No one knows what the future holds but as a Gehrig fan and constant student of cards, I love that card.

Perhaps, but on the other hand for the most part it doesn't seem that pre-WW II, people care that much about rookie cards, particularly where the rookie card is a non-mainstream black and white issue as it frequently is.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by Leon

Not sure about 8 figures, re: 1914 Ruth, but my guess is it is the next 7 figure pre-war card (when a nice one comes out...and in the future a bit)

Agreed...Ruth is the greatest player in the history of the game...I'm actually surprised that the Baltimore Ruth hasn't eclipsed the million mark already.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

Not sure about 8 figures, re: 1914 Ruth, but my guess is it is the next 7 figure pre-war card (when a nice one comes out...and in the future a bit)

Is someone working on making a nice one?

[Leon]

I have no idea but that would be an expensive gamble.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Is someone working on making a nice one?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

I have no idea but that would be an expensive gamble.

Not necessarily.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think this guy's description needs an update. The days of a 100k - 1914 Ruth, in any kind of presentable condition, passed by at least a few years ago. Certainly this is one of the all time great cards and high on my want/wish list. (I doubt very seriously I will ever own one)

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1914-BABE-RU...item2804576d2a


.

Leon- If you can talk your daughter into renting her text books, you may have enough to swing such a purchase.
.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Perhaps, but on the other hand for the most part it doesn't seem that pre-WW II, people care that much about rookie cards, particularly where the rookie card is a non-mainstream black and white issue as it frequently is.

I don't mean to ruffle any feathers, but the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth is essentially a black and white card, with blue or red ink added in the printing process. The '25 Exhibit Gehrig sold for $25,000 in graded ExMt 5-8 years ago. My bet is that one might well fetch $50,000+ now. One in SGC "good" was purchased for $500 in 1998 and sold in 2007 for $6,300. The 1907 Wolverine News Cobb rookie (which at this point appears to be truly rare as well as obviously tremendously significant) just sold for $11,000 in Ex. The 1916 M101 Ruth--black and white--was sold within the last year in PSA 7 condition for just under $300,000 by a dealer acquaintance of mine. The T210 Joe Jackson has sold several times for more than $200,000--it is also basically a black and white card. The 1914 Fatima Pete Alexander is also black and white, extremely popular, and has increased in value from well under $1,000 pre-2000 to well over that figure in the last decade. A fellow board member just recently purchased a Musial 1946 postcard--yes, black and white--for $2,700, if memory serves correctly. Need I go into E107's? What would a 1893 Just So Tobacco Cy Young rookie go for? If you had one, I suspect the sky would be the limit! None of these were thought of as "mainstream" 20-25 years ago. If they're considered "mainstream" now, its because their rarity and significance has made that happen. Black and white versus color as a negative factor for increasing prices is, respectfully, old school, a theory espoused back in the early '90's by more than one well-intentioned, but ill-informed author. It hasn't worked out that way. What consistently works in ANY collecting endeavor is rare and significant in the best condition you can find or afford. "Mainstream" in its truest sense also tends to translate to common, and common defeats the supply aspect of the value equation.

Above all, though, may your collecting bring you happiness, Pete.

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

M101-2 and National Game/Tom Barker Alexander both precede the Fatima (and 1914 CJ), no? So the popularity of that issue would seem to have nothing to do with rookie card status.

And I am guessing there are lots of examples of cards that have increased in value tremendously despite not being rookie cards (e.g. T206 Wagner, 1952T Mantle).

And there are lots of players whose rookie I couldn't even name despite being reasonably well informed. Lajoie, Collins, Mathewson, Johnson to name a few.

So I'm still not sure that for the average collector rookie card status is as big a deal pre war as it is post war, which was my point (I think LOL).