The Future

[sreader3]

I'm betting that vintage baseball prices will moderate, but still increase over the next 24 months. Here's my thinking:

COVID. COVID kept middle and high income earners home and on the Internet. High income remote workers age 25-75 of the male persuasion (i.e. the "target demo for vintage baseball card collectors" ), stuck a home and flush with discretionary cash (including both long-time collectors and those who rediscovered their childhood passion), bid-up vintage baseball card prices. Some of these folks are speculators who will not be there in the future. However, there is a certain “tackiness” to baseball card collecting that will cause some of the new entrants to endure. Moreover, not all remote workers will go back to the office. Those who stay home will have an inducement to keep collecting.

Publicity. It will die down. There is no doubt that a media-driven mania surrounding cards, both on TV and print, has spiked prices to an extent. That will subside. How much is unknown.

Inflation. Today’s CPI was 0.9% month over month, which extrapolated over 12 months means 11% annual inflation may be on the way. I personally don’t believe what the Fed and certain economists say about this inflation spike being “transitory.” I’m just not buying it—especially with more “stimulus” on the table. These same economists predicted that today’s CPI number would be 0.2% instead of 0.9% (oops) and that the recent jobs report would show 1M jobs instead of just over 200K (double oops). Inflation is here to stay folks. This will act as a countervailing force to COVID opening that will bolster card prices, at least in nominal terms. TINA (there is no alternative) still applies, in the stock market as well as collectibles.

Overall, I see somewhat stable vintage card prices in the next 24 months, with a slight upward bias. As usual, high-demand sets (e.g., T206) and high-demand players (e.g., Hall of Famers) will outperform.

Of course, opinions are like you know what. Everyone has one. Thoughts welcome.