2011 Topps Mike Trout - where does it go from here?

[deweyinthehall]

I watched this live break of a 2011 Topps Update jumbo box last night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3M18eKKT6Pk

SPOILER ALERTS - The Trout, of course, was in the final pack. If you skip ahead to about 1:17:00, they find a Beltran, which is supposedly the "indicator" card for a Trout, and I thought the poor guy was going to have a cardiac event when there was no Trout behind it.

It got me thinking - I've been collecting since 1978, and I've witnessed all the ups and downs of the hobby since. I spent about $100 bucks for a box just like this 10 years ago...a box which seems to be going these days for in the neighborhood of 15K.

So - in 20 years, after Trout's career is well over, the record books tell us how good he really was and he's safely ensconced in Cooperstown, where does this card settle?

Assuming there is still a hobby which resembles that of today, I think it's $100 max, but probably closer to $50 because there will be so many PSA 9s and 10s out there, to say nothing of a lot of unopened material containing even more potential 10s.

Any thoughts?

[Marchillo]

You think the 2011 Topps Update Trout will settle at $100? $50? I disagree. One big thing going for the Trout card is that its in the update series so there aren't factory sets out there etc. Unless his career ended soon I think this card remains significant in the hobby.

There isn't lots of data on print runs but I think print runs were much lower than today's demand. The influx of hobby interest in 2021 is still watching Trout in his prime and people who can't afford it now will want the card when they are in their 30's.

[Marchillo]

Just a quick look at Pop reports - I know the pitfalls of these - regrades etc.

PSA - Trout - between 10-11k
BGS - Trout - between 6-7k

1968 Nolan Ryan

PSA Ryan - between 9-10k
BGS Ryan - between 3-4K

The below all PSA only
2018 Topps Update Acuna - over 28,000
2018 Topps Update Soto - over 26,000
2019 Topps Pete Alonso - over 18,000
2019 Vlad NNO (short print) - almost 9k

I think the print run for 2011 update is low enough where this card holds value versus stuff over the past 5 years. You don't see much unopened 2011 Topps Update floating around either. Even a "sp" vlad is approaching Trout pop numbers. Without the PSA shutdown, price increase, and Vlad's season - I bet you would have seen that card surpass the Trout.