Please Help Me Make Some Sense Of It

[egri]

I don't know that people are investing in the sense that they've done a thorough analysis of the fundamentals of the card market in general and specific cards in particular and all of the other research that typically goes into an investment, but I'm sure they are investing with the belief that past returns are indicative of future performance.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by egri

I don't know that people are investing in the sense that they've done a thorough analysis of the fundamentals of the card market in general and specific cards in particular and all of the other research that typically goes into an investment, but I'm sure they are investing with the belief that past returns are indicative of future performance.

Vintage

Many many many long term people are now bailing

A few new people are coming in


Modern

Seems many are bailing. Goldin has an auction every month. Even other auctions, think it was lelands has 300 modern lots. I cant ever remember seeing modern cards auctions in such droves.


People are buying I guess, I just cant rationalize it. Seems an awful lot like 1990 "you just cant lose " methodology

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by egri

I don't know that people are investing in the sense that they've done a thorough analysis of the fundamentals of the card market in general and specific cards in particular and all of the other research that typically goes into an investment, but I'm sure they are investing with the belief that past returns are indicative of future performance.

I very much view my collection as an investment. Yet it is also very much a collection and I am very much a collector.

I am 47 years old. I have collected off and on since I was 6. My brother and I sold our first collection in 1993 (at a card show). I sold my second collection in 2001-02 to pay for school debt. Sometime in the early 2010's, I took my family to a Chantilly Show (VA) to meet John Elway. There were cards everywhere and I immediately became nostalgic. I spent much of the day walking around looking at cards and it was very clear to me that prices of all the cards I had sold in 2000 were higher-to-significantly higher in the present day. This made sense, since cards I collected in the late 80's were worth more in the late 90's when I put my second collection together.

Around 2015, I started making excess money and I had to decide where to "invest" it. I do not like the stock market (although I own stock), and I am heavily invested in real estate, so I was looking for something else. Knowing, from first hand experience, that the good cards have consistently increased in value from the 1980's to the 2010's, I thought cards could be a sound investment. PLUS, I love cards and I understand them. So unlike stock, this could be an investment I could enjoy and feel I have some control over. So, in 2015 I bought the first card of my 3rd collection - a T206 Cy Young throwing, which has sentimental value for me.

Then I bought the Mantles, Clementes, Aarons, Mays, Robinsons, etc -- all the big boy cards of the early 1950's - as well as Brady and Manning rookies, a Gretzky rookie and a few other more recent cards. I figured these were the best investments. BUT, my love is in the T206 era, and eventually I sold all that stuff (way too early) and started collecting -- yes collecting -- prewar. But, I do view cards assets, so I decided to collect that cards I felt were the most likely to retain value and/or go up. So I jumped into T206 (specifically rare backs HOFers), Wagner, Ruth, Joe Jackson, and rare and iconic cards from the 1900-1922.

I do back runs and back sets. I love talking cards and going to shows. I have made many friends in this "hobby" and I often "overpay" for things because I need them or want them for my collection. But I am very mindful that my collection is, in fact, a substantial asset and that is very much in mind when I buy a card. I am a collector and an investor, and I suspect many on this board are the same.

I am thrilled with the recent increase in prices. Sure, it makes buying things tougher, but my net worth has increased a lot bc of cards, and that is a very healthy spoonful of sugar to take with the bitter pill that is me having to pay way up for some cards I need/want. As a collector, who does not currently need the money, I hope my collection becomes my kids' problem when I am gone (in 40 years). But its great to know that if I need money, I am a few cardboard sales away from having that money.

Cards have ALWAYS been an investment; at least since I started collecting in 1983. Cards cost real money back then and people bought and sold them for profit. That is no different today. The numbers are just larger today. There is a lot of new money in the hobby, but new money has always been coming into the hobby. While I agree that the current situation is a little more inflamed and significant, its nothing new. Since at least the 1980's cards have been an asset and people have invested in them, and that will not change.

As for Packs' declaration that the market will fall out - I strongly disagree with respect to blue chip, prewar cards. There are a finite number of these cards, the scarcity/rarity is real (not manufactured), the players are long gone and their legacies set in stone, and they are names that transcend the sport: Ruth, Cobb, Jackson, Robinson, Mantle, Young, Wagner (mostly bc of T206), Aaron, Koufax. These names are Americana, not just prodigious hitters or pitchers. They have awards or candy bars named after them, there are movies and books about them, they are part of folklore, etc. Most importantly, this is the 5th decade that I have witnessed (1980-2020) where their cards are selling for more than the decade before. That is a great track record and one that I will invest in all day long.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

As for Packs' declaration that the market will fall out - I strongly disagree with respect to blue chip, prewar cards. There are a finite number of these cards, the scarcity/rarity is real (not manufactured), the players are long gone and their legacies set in stone, and they are names that transcend the sport: Ruth, Cobb, Jackson, Robinson, Mantle, Young, Wagner (mostly bc of T206), Aaron, Koufax. These names are Americana, not just prodigious hitters or pitchers. They have awards or candy bars named after them, there are movies and books about them, they are part of folklore, etc. Most importantly, this is the 5th decade that I have witnessed (1980-2020) where their cards are selling for more than the decade before. That is a great track record and one that I will invest in all day long.

I pretty much agree with this, and its why I think the current hobby is sort of really misaligned.

With the exception of Mike Trout, it seems insane to look at most all of the current MLB players, especially those under 30, and pay anything close to a huge premium for them. For the price you have to pay for a Tatis 1st Bowman auto, the price assumes hes going to become an all time great, a top 50ish player. It is kind of hard to assume any current player will do that until they have 10+ years of sustained performance. Even Trout is a good example, he has really struggled to stay healthy the last few years. He is going to go down as an all time great, but there is a lot of room between him already being HoF worthy, and him being in the same HoF ring as Mantle or Mays.

Nothing is going to happen to Ty Cobb or Matty or Cy Young at this point to change their legacies, and there are a finite number of their cards available. There is almost no world in which the price of a Red Cobb will decrease in the next 10 years, unless civilization literally falls apart.

A PSA 5 Red Cobb in a P350 back sold for $13,000 a few days ago. 2 years ago it sold for $5900. And I bet 5 years before that, it sold for about $2500. The growth may not be exponential like that in 2 years time, but unless someone discovers a box of thousands of pristine Red Cobbs in the future, the supply is not going to increase, but the demand likely will.

[obcbobd]

As a collector, the large increase in cards I would like to buy has a been a disappointment. As much as I'd love to see a market crash to prices 30 years ago, I realize it is not going to happen anytime soon. I enjoy the cards I bought ages ago (33-34 Goudey sets, some pre-war) and work on less expensive sets - finishing the Topps/Bowman runs (minus a few biggies). Heck I just started the Reneta Glasso All Time Greats set at a quarter a card. Maybe someday I'll be able to talk myself into the big $ cards I need to finish a few sets, but for now I'll hit the $1 boxes and a few $50-200 cards here and there.