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#1
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: leon
Just curious as to folks thoughts on what all of the auctions currently will do to ebay prices currently. Might it make the prices go lower....higher ?? regards |
#2
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: vetekbob
In my opinion for what its worth lol, I have been a part of auctions outside of Ebay and in comparing results from outside auctions to the same or similar ones on Ebay, it appears to me that Ebay final price is lower. Granted there are exceptions depending on rarity and grade offered at times on Ebay. I see the shift moving outside of Ebay as to prewar vintage cards. I like Ebay and have been able to amass some great cards from there over the years but from what I have seen in the last 6 months to a year, Ebay doesnt offer the selection in graded vintage cards that it used to and that is a shame. For people like me who are usually upper middle of the road grade collectors and buyers, the auction house prices are well out of my range. It would be nice to see someone come up with an auction site that fills in the nitch between Ebay and the big auction houses. Maybe I am just totally way off base here but I dont see the so called big hitter sellers on Ebay that once were previlant. |
#3
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth
No doubt that ebay final prices will suffer for anything that is not rare or unique. Most collectors do not have high 6 figure card budgets. I think there will also be an increase in listings in an effort for some to free up cash to acquire some of the amazing offerings in Mastro, Lipset, Edwards, Goodwin, etc etc. |
#4
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Scott Forrest
The prices paid in Mastro, etc. auctions for large card lots are tied to the price that the dealer-purchasers think they need to get in order to make a profit breaking them up on ebay. Ebay prices drive Mastro,etc. rather than the other way around. |
#5
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Dave Williams
There are nearly 3000 different auctions for cards pre 1940 on Ebay right now. |
#6
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: warshawlaw
As a bidder, I am pretty much shut out of the major auctions for reasons of budget and lot size. I don't want to buy 100+ cards in each lot and I don't feel like spending my entire year's card budget on a mass lot that I have to break up on ebay to get the ten cards I want. And some of the lotting in these auctions is plain nuts. I can't believe the consignors are happy with it. For the same reasons I don't think I would ever consign to the major auctions. I think my collection would do better pieced out over ebay than mass lotted in a major auction because it is lots and lots of nice items but no spectacular five-figure items. There is also the issue of $ on the table with 30% total juice (buyer and seller combined) and outrageous shipping fees. |
#7
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: martin dalziel
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#8
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: barrysloate
Everything still boils down to supply and demand. Good material does extremely well in any context, particularly when a couple of very aggressive collectors are working on a registry set. Then the price of a card will go nuts no matter where it is listed. The very best material that is in short supply will do great on ebay and anywhere else. The major difference, however, between ebay and the large auction houses is that ebay lots are typically single cards, whereas auction houses offer huge lots. So many collectors buy the large lots from the big auction houses and sell them as singles on ebay, and while the mark-up may be only slightly above cost on most lots, a few of them will go crazy, and that will justify the whole expense. |
#9
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: jay behrens
It will burst. If I could predict when, I'd be a very rich man. In the late 80s everyone was going to retire and send their kids to college with their baseball collections. Then the whole thing blew up and it's just now gotten back to where it was around 1990 or '91. Now is definately not the time to be buying if you are an investor. This is very much a sellers market. When the bubble bursts, 90% or more of the new money will leave because it's no longer a good investment and they will move on to the next flavor of the month. Those of us around for the long haul won't be hurt by the cycles. |
#10
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Chuck R
Personally, I wouldn't expect a huge burst in the vintage bubble. Baseball card investors in the late 80's were buying cases of new and recent cards, hoping for the hot rookie. You can't give that stuff away now. If you look back at prices for the last few decades for things like T206, Old Judge and 33 Goudey, I'd expect you'd see a steady climb a lot like the stock market. Quality, vintage stuff may level off some but I think we're dreaming to think the prices will go way down from where they are now. |
#11
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Patrick McMenemy
For those of us on a budget or for those of us chasing only a handful of type cards, EBAY is where most of my "card money" ends up. Although I enjoy window shopping the major auction companies catalogs, the inflated prices, together with the added "buyers fees" as well as the reality of having to buy a large lot to obtain a single card has placed bidding beyond my reach. |
#12
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: vetekbob
Barry and Jay, you both bring up some very good points that I have wondered about lately myself. As someone that doesnt have a huge amount of money to spend on prewar cards, I have wondered where the ceiling is and are we nearing it. I personally agree with Jay, that if you are a true prewar collector you are in it because you love it and are not concerned about flipping cards all the time for money. Granted, if some sellers on ebay didnt flip like they do, I wouldnt have the ability such as it is to get a nice card here and there and for that I am thankful for. I buy graded for the authenticity issue realizing that at times mistakes can and are made by the grading companies. If I buy a card I want to see the beauty of the artwork and style of it without lots of handling and wear to distract from and handling cards holdered allows me to sit and appreciate such without worry about an accident happening that might would spell disaster if not holdered. I have been known to flip some cards when the scope of my collecting changed and or I had the opportunity to acquire something that struck my eye as a collector even more. |
#13
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: jay behrens
True, you when the bubble bursts, you are not going to see a huge drop in prices on vintage cards. But you will see a dip and flattening of the market. There is just no way that the price increases we are seeing can be sustained. When the bubble bursts is going to depend more on the economy, than anything else. With gas prices going the way they are, a lot discretionary income is going to disappear from the economy. This will lead to a potential bubble burst. |
#14
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Julie
THIS time, although the great demand had brought 19th century cards to the marketplace--the price will probably not go down (he was speaking specifically of Old Judge, but I think it applies to all of it), because the demand is so great, with no end in sight. There just ain't that many 19th century cards! |
#15
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: barry arnold
Barry Sloate has penned quite eloquently what i have been incubating for some |
#16
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: barrysloate
A lot of good points have been made on this thread, and of course nobody knows the answer, not even me. Vetekbob regrets that there are no baseball card shops anymore and is thankful for ebay; the fact is ebay may be the reason that the baseball shop can no longer survive. Why pay high rent when ebay costs pennies to list and can reach thousands of people who would never even know your store exists? That is how the information age has altered the landscape. As far as a bubble bursting I feel that there can certainly be an exodus of well heeled collectors and investors one day if their collections aren't performing the way they would like, but there can't be a bubble bursting at the level of the dot.coms. When a stock tanks, you have nothing but a worthless piece of paper that says you own the stock. But if vintage cards lost value, you still have your collection and you can still enjoy it; and of course, some won't care and will continue collecting, others will have a bad taste in their mouth and bail out. That increases the supply, and lessens the demand, and there's your market cycle. It's like real estate- it seems to go up forever, but even if it went south, you still have a house to live in. I just think that the incredibly high prices you see for great rarities is populated by a very thin market; those cards are more volatile than a T206 in VG-Ex condition, which will never go too high or too low. But how about the guy who is buying a 1955 Topps common in PSA-9 for a $1000 for his registry set? After he's spent 150K to put his 55 Topps set together, where does he go to sell it when the market tanks? It's a matter of recognizing a good value and a bad value. The whole set registry craze is an amazing coup and marketing scheme for the grading companies, but that is probably the area of the market where someone is going to get his head handed to him. The N172's, T206's, and other classic sets will probably hold their value a little better. There's just something intrinsically appealing about them and they will always be collected. There can always be market dips but I don't think the classics will tank. |
#17
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: warshawlaw
A very interesting discussion. |
#18
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: leon
For some reason, in about 95% of your posts, I completely feel the same way and agree with you. That's scary. I agree about the price of gas not affecting prices too much either. At my restaurants (fast food)it's another story. For those folks it's sometimes either gas or a dinner out. Not so in our space...for the most part.....see ya later |
#19
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: warshawlaw
You know how you make a small fortune in retaurants? Start out with a large one |
#20
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: barrysloate
Vintage cards are what they are but here is an area of the market I don't understand. Let's take T210's as an example of this. Years ago they sold for $10-20 apiece because very few collectors cared about them and most never heard of the players. Now they are red-hot and often sell for $100 each. Why? Is it that these suddenly obscure players became so appealing or is it that everything else has become so expensive they are the only cards left that anyone can afford? If the latter is the case, what does that say about the market? And if a set is red-hot, does that suggest it will eventually cool off and become less appealing, and therefore less expensive? To this day I don't get what makes a set that's been around a century suddenly get hot. |
#21
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: leon
Adam- I've heard that before. How true it is. |
#22
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: warshawlaw
The same could be observed for T207 and E cards. I remember scoffing at a grouping of Tinker-Evers-Chance portraits because they were E cards not T206. Now, I would have to reverse my thinking on the two lots. |
#23
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Robert
I personally have not paid much attention to EBAY for the past few weeks because of the bug Auction houses all seem to be happening at the same time. Superior just ended then Mastro, now we have REA, Goodwin and if I was not banned from Oldjudge that as well. With them having so much quality product and I have placed a lot of bids and waiting to see how they are all going to play out, I just don't want to even mess with EBAY at the moment. It would be nice if the auction houses could some how get together and work out a schedule so that they are not all running at the same time. I think that would be wise for them and probable would bring in more $'s. I was wondering how many people that buy on EBAY know about the auctions in a percentage basis, do you think it is less of more then 50%. I don't think that the people who buy lower quality are effected or partake in the big auction houses only the high enders and wholesale dealers. Once the big house auctions ends you will start seeing a lot of that material on EBAY. |
#24
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: barrysloate
Leon and Adam both make good points and I agree with Adam that vintage cards will always outperform Mark McGwire rookies in the long run. But there is still another aspect of the market that troubles me: can't the cost of vintage cards, at every price tier, become so expensive that collectors just get tired of laying out so much money and just give up? There's a mortgage to pay, the kids need braces, the older ones are off to college, and common E94's are $300-400 apiece and Youngs are $2000 apiece and I've had enough and I'm throwing in the towel. Is everyone getting so rich that price is no object? I still maintain prices can't go up forever. At a certain threshold, and please don't ask me what it is, collectors start dropping out. I did; I can afford some of today's prices but cards at these levels have lost their appeal. I'd rather do something else with my money. Granted, as a dealer I get a chance to handle great cards and since I subsequently sell them I'm not actually tying up my money. But at today's levels, someone else can own them. Are there others who feel the same way? Or have I just been doing this too long? |
#25
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: runscott
... |
#26
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: LGB
Its really a matter of supply and demand...I too have some trouble believing that there are lots of people paying the prices that are on ebay...but I also remember stamps in the mid and late 70's...same type of runup on older material...much of it bought initially by investors and later both investors and collectors. But in the early 80's in combination with some tough economic times (less demand) and a combination of investors unloading their holdings and older collectors passing away (supply) prices tanked...and when they tanked they went down big-time...I can remember a UN mini-sheet that at one point sold for about $700 that now routinely sells for $40....even some of the "classic" early US stamp series lost 50%-60% of their value and have never reached the same levels. I do believe that much the same thing will happen with cards..with true scarcities of popular sets/players holding up but everything else getting back to levels that collectors only will sustain. |
#27
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: barrysloate
Don't mean to hijack this thread, but with Leon's permission I'd like to comment on the stamp analogy and will try to wind it back to baseball cards. Coincidentally, I have a major American stamp collection (my own) going up on ebay late this Monday night. And since I check stamps on ebay nearly every day (but with the sale of my collection I will be done),I can say that stamps that were once considered rare- the first American stamps from 1847, the $5 Columbian,etc., can be bought off ebay several times a day, seven days a week. They in fact are beginning to look rather common. Imagine if the same thing happened with baseball cards, where every day you could buy half a dozen T206 Cobbs and the supply seemed limitless. That would surely affect prices. As you said, it all boils down to supply and demand. No guarantee the demand for baseball cards will always be at this fever pitch. |
#28
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: jay behrens
Gas prices won't directly affect cards, but in the overall economic picture, gas is a big driver. When gas starts getting very expensive, people start tightening their belts and stop spending extra money, no matter your tax bracket. |
#29
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth
If the "bubble" does burst, it will not be from a lack of funds but a lack of passion or interest in collecting. Many of the newcomer collectors of vintage material, like myself, feel that prices are not that high. Some of us were not smart enough, old enough and therefore fortunate enough to be buying in 1974 when Cobbs and Wagners sold for $12 and if you bought 3 the 4th was free. |
#30
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: barrysloate
Greg- Sounds like you know more of these set registry collectors than I do. Isn't a lot of it just competing with others to prove that your set is better than the theirs? It's 'I drive a cadillac, you drive a chevy, so I'm a better man than you are.' And it's so easy to assess. An 8 is always better than a 7, a 9 is always better than an 8, etc. There isn't even any thought that needs to go into it. Just own more numbers closer to 10 than the other guy. You almost wonder to what degree they care about the card versus what they care about the number. I find it all very amusing, but it is a sport for the superrich only. No mortal collector can compete with a guy spending $500-$1000 for each 1971 Topps common (you can buy the whole set Vg for the price of a few PSA-9 commons). But you're right, if you have the cards and you have the customers, it's a dealer's dream. |
#31
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: warshawlaw
At $500 each? I'd he happy to part with mine... |
#32
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth
Barry, |
#33
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: barrysloate
Greg, |
#34
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: JimB
Spending $7,800 for a common card certainly seems crazy to me, but because somebody can afford and wants to have a super high-grade set does not make them any less of a "collector" than anybody else on this board. Just because they have more money doesn't mean they love the cards less. Though I am not one of the folks that spends thousands on commons, it sounds like there is some petty jealousy here. One can certainly raise ethical questions about people doing more worthwhile things with their money, but that is case regardless of whether the card is worth three figures or five figures. |
#35
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Auction dollars spent vis a vis ebay dollars spent
Posted By: Bottom of the Ninth
Jim |
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