Is 3000 hits a big deal or overrated?

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

I guess I viewed the question as a comparison, as in is 3000 hits a bigger deal than say 500 hrs or 300 wins. I'm going to refer my list below to the "marginal 3000 hit hofers", like say a biggio. Here is why I think it is a big deal. Most if not all with 3000 hits have:

1. Longevity and health
2. Plate discipline with two strikes
3. A very good eye or terrific hand eye coordination
4. Good on base and high runs scored numbers
5. Great hit and run possibilities
6. Extending innings to roll over lineups

Players like Craig biggio increased the success rates of power hitters like Bagwell. I will concede that some of this is more national league specific, but I am more impressed with a 3000 hit guy than a 500 hr guy, all other things being equal.

+1....Dennis, I could not have said it better my friend. Give me a guy that averages 200 hits for 15 years (this stat still blows my mind). Your other points are spot on as well......Uh Oh, 1952Boy just logged on. I have my crucifix, do you?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

+1....Dennis, I could not have said it better my friend. Give me a guy that averages 200 hits for 15 years (this stat still blows my mind). Your other points are spot on as well......Uh Oh, 1952Boy just logged on. I have my crucifix, do you?

Man i wasnt aware that i logged on at 5 pm.....Not only do you troll but you make time in your life to find out when I log on? Your getting stranger by the day.

[the 'stache]

It's really not that hard to get 200 hits a season if you bat leadoff, and stay healthy. And, to his credit, Ichiro did that just that--stay healthy--for more than a decade to start his career. He also had some real good seasons, average wise. But let's be clear about two things. One, between 2001 and 2010, the "200 hit season streak", he averaged a whopping 734 plate appearances a season. And Ichiro doesn't walk, well, at all. 620 walks in 10,335 plate appearances is pretty piss poor. His .314 lifetime batting average is outstanding. But, comparatively, his lifetime OBP, for a future Hall of Famer, is quite low at .357. It's driven almost entirely by his average. So, he got a ton of official at bats with which to get those 200 hits. In fact, he averaged 678 at bats a season between 2001-2010. With 678 at bats, you don't even have to hit .300 to get 200 hits. In fact, if you hit .295, you'll get 200 hits on the dot.

Ichiro hit only .303 in 2005. That was his fifth season in the Majors, and the fifth in a row he'd get 200 hits. Know how many players, since 1901, have hit .303 and gotten 200 hits? Three, including Ichiro. And the last time it happened was 76 years ago.

2005-Ichiro Suzuki, 206 hits, 679 at bats, .303 AVG
1930-Taylor Douthit, 201 hits, 664 at bats, .303 AVG
1940-Doc Cramer, 200 hits, 661 at bats, .303 AVG

99.999% of the time, the run would have ended right there, and this "200 hit season streak" talk would be a distant memory. The only reason the streak continued was because of the sheer number of times he came to the plate.


Secondly, all he does is hit singles. He had 262 hits in 2004, and 225 of those hits were singles. 24 doubles, 5 triples, 8 home runs. How does a guy that fast only have 29 doubles and triples among 262 hits?

Hand-eye coordination is one thing. And it's certainly hard to hit at the Major League level. Hitting the curve might be the hardest thing to do in professional sports. But it is infinitely easier to hit for high average when you're just dinking the ball into the outfield. When you're not hitting for power, you can shorten your swing. This allows slightly more time for the hitter to pick up the pitch. And of all the hitters with 3,000 career hits, Ichiro has, by a wide margin, the fewest extra base hits. 556 extra base hits, 2,444 singles. As has been mentioned earlier, his career OPS + is only 105. He's 5% above the average Major League hitter for his career because he provides virtually no power. In fact, he's lucky he got to 3,000 hits at all. Between 2011 and 2015, the last five seasons, his OPS + has been 85--15% below Major League average. He's been worth 3.8 bWAR (3.6 fWAR). That's about 0.7 fWAR a season; basically, a fringe replacement level player.

I like Ichiro a lot. Great guy, and a fantastic pure hitter. But all the hyperbole I've been reading, like "he's the greatest hitter of this generation", is making me absolutely nuts. That's patently false. Too many guys have hit for average AND power, and have had a better OBP in the process. Ichiro is a great base stealer, and a real good (but not as great as some believe) fielder. But his dearth of power hurts his all-time ranking. He's a Hall of Famer, and will get in quickly (first year of eligibility, likely, because of his popularity). But he's just not on the level of the all-time greats, and to suggest he is is disingenuous.