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  #1  
Old 01-14-2009, 09:56 PM
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Default Ebay Auctions.... Final 15 Seconds

Posted By: Jamie

With the Magie Error Card that just ended on ebay...I thought to start this thread.. The card was listed with no reserve and was at $4800 all week.. in the final 15 seconds the price went from 4800 to 7100... I was bummed out cause I was trying to get it for 6800...

So the question to the board is what is the most you have seen with a card valued under 15,000 increase in the final 15 seconds of the auction..

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  #2  
Old 01-14-2009, 10:08 PM
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Posted By: doug goodman

IMHO -

Besides not being able to bid during the last minute, there is no logical reason to bid before the 15 second mark. All bidding early does is give your competition time to bid again (assuming yours is the high bid) and you time to second guess yourself by bidding more than you wanted to spend (assuming that your bid was your "max").

Doug


PS - sorry I didn't actually answer your question.

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  #3  
Old 01-14-2009, 10:16 PM
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Posted By: Adam

Think about it this way as well --- what if all the snipe programs froze during those last 15 seconds and the snipes could not be placed.

Someone could get a STEAL of a deal.

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  #4  
Old 01-15-2009, 05:32 AM
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Default Ebay Auctions.... Final 15 Seconds

Posted By: Alan

I never really understand why everyone snipes. Why not just put in the most you are willing to pay & be done with it ? Isn't that how all of the auction houses work ? You can't snipe there, can you ?

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  #5  
Old 01-15-2009, 05:36 AM
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Posted By: Phil

I agree with you Alan......don't really get sniping. I understand what it is, but if you have a maximum you want to pay, "just set it and forget it".

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  #6  
Old 01-15-2009, 05:52 AM
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Posted By: Anonymous

Alan and Phil....

two reasons for sniping as opposed to 'max bids' on eBay.

1) you can change your mind and change the amount of a snipe or cancel it.
2) it saves you money - less of a chance of casual bidders bumping you up during the auction.

edit: spelling.

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  #7  
Old 01-15-2009, 05:54 AM
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Posted By: Jodi Birkholm

Apparently you can snipe Heritage Auctions using gavelsnipe. I haven't tried it, however.

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  #8  
Old 01-15-2009, 06:14 AM
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Posted By: Dave F


What are the odds of this. This was an auction of mine that ended last night. One guy had set a max bid earlier in the day and then with five seconds to go or whatever another guy hits the exact same amount? Maybe it's kind of a common amount to put in..but still...or could the first guy of had a few more cents or dollars in there but it didn't figure that amount because it wasn't quite to the next bid increment?


http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=290287854665

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  #9  
Old 01-15-2009, 06:21 AM
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Posted By: Phil

I think if the first guy had a "few more cents in it", then it would have bumped up to let's say $888.88

To me it looks like they both just put in $888.00 and the first guy gets it.

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  #10  
Old 01-15-2009, 06:23 AM
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Posted By: T206Collector

...but not in the last year or so, so here goes.

If you bid at any time on ebay with more than 15 seconds left to go you are plain and simple giving more money to the seller without any advantage to yourself. Anytime you allow other bidders time to amend their bids based on what your maximum bid may be, you are more at risk for either paying more than you would have had to or losing the auction outright. In addition, you are inviting unscrupulous sellers to shill bid against your max bids.

People who "set it and forget it" are helping all the other potential players in an auction except for themselves. To put it bluntly, sellers love you.



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  #11  
Old 01-15-2009, 06:26 AM
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Posted By: Tim

"I never really understand why everyone snipes."

People snipe for different reasons.

1) You can set your max bid and not have to be in front of the computer when the auction is about to close.

2) It prevents some of us from bidding above our predetermined maximum amount.

3) It prevents others from having the opportunity to counter your max if it is the high bid in the closing seconds.

There are good arguments for both sides sniping vs no sniping, but after a lot of debate I feel it ultimately hurts the seller. It eliminates the opportunity to impulsively bid more than what you orginally determined your max bid to be.

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  #12  
Old 01-15-2009, 06:52 AM
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Posted By: Jb

Like others have mentioned, sniping is great because not only do you not have to be at your pc, but it also keeps shill bidders from running up the auction price. Set your snipe for your max amount and let it roll. Like poker you don't want to show your hand to early.................

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  #13  
Old 01-15-2009, 07:32 AM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Although not a card, I once had a rare bound volume of Henry Chadwick's Base Ball Chronicles that I was trying to sell outright for $5500, with no takers. I lowered the price to $5000, then $4500, and fared no better. I finally put it up on ebay, and by midweek the bidding was up to $4100. It sat there until the last few minutes and I assumed that would be it and I would make a small profit and move on.

I refreshed with about a half minute to go and it was still at $4100. I tried one last time at the ten second mark and the screen now read $12,888! It was to date my second biggest sale ever on ebay, but the most I ever had anything jump at the end.

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  #14  
Old 01-15-2009, 07:45 AM
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Posted By: T206Collector

...there was an E222 lot that sold for just over $12,000 on ebay a couple years back. I was watching the auction because it also had a number of T206 HOFers and it was listed poorly. But the snipers won out in the end -- pushing the final total what seems to me was about $10,000 in just a few seconds. That's my recollection anyway....



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  #15  
Old 01-15-2009, 08:18 AM
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Posted By: Rhys

I placed a high bid on an item once with a few hours to go and the person who was the high bidder before me saw he was outbid and placed about 15 bids in the last 2-3 minutes and drove the price from about $100 to about $400. We were the only two bidders and if I had let his high bid stand until the last 10 seconds I would not have given him the time to keep trying to overtake me. SO in that case not setting a snipe cost me about $300. That was the last time I ever did this for an item I really cared about. For cheaper items I throw bids out there all the time, but not for expensive items anymore.

Rhys

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  #16  
Old 01-15-2009, 08:23 AM
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Posted By: rand

i have a very limited budget, if i go after a card i need i like to sit at the computer and manually (count in my head the seconds) plunk down my bid as close to the end as possible. when i do this, i place a bid high enough to win the lot. it is a thrill rush to see what happens when the screen comes back up and where my bid stands especially with 5 secs left to go, the refresh button is like watching the roulette ball just about land in its groove. i probably win 90% of the items i want this way. if i lose, i am not bothered as i will live to fight another day, i have learned that it "pays to wait". meaning i save money the next time around.

ps.. one time i miscounted and bid to late, i was so pissed i didnt sleep the entire night and the card sold for $150 under what i was willing to pay.

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  #17  
Old 01-15-2009, 12:25 PM
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Posted By: Bob

The strangest one I ever saw was years ago on ebay, a T207 Lowdermilk. No one bid the minimum bid of $9.99 until 6 seconds to go and two guys each bid over one thousand dollars. Can't remember the final total but it was around $1200. I am sure the guy who won was happy but also muttering because if not for the other bidder he would have won the card for $9.99! (I know there may have been some 3rd bidder who sniped with less than 6 seconds to go whose bid didn't appear because it was only a few hundred dollars or so, but still it appears there were only two bidders).

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  #18  
Old 01-15-2009, 12:29 PM
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Posted By: Vincent



. . . I agree with Tim. I also have two other reasons why I snipe.


I've tried bidding on items without using a snipe, and my success rate is painfully low. Well below 10%. My success rate using snipes is much higher (better than 50%). Am I a more agressive bidder using snipes ? I don't think so. I think it allows other bidders the opportunity to change their maximum bid.

And that is probably why I snipe. By timing it down to the last 5-6 seconds, the other bidders may get one additional opportunity to top my maximum. While a 50% success rate isn't great, it's certainly better than the >10% success rate from not sniping. And my collection is the better for it.

Thanks.

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Old 01-15-2009, 12:41 PM
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Posted By: ErlandStevens

I don't have deep enough pockets to chase prized items and therefore have never felt the need to snipe. I agree that it's probably the way to go on ebay (although the lack of early bidding action can lead some sellers to accept early offers to close listings).

What I do not understand about sniping is that some bidders seem to occasionally put in ridiculous snipes. If another sniper happens to do the same, then somebody gets stuck with the card at a crazy price. I cannot give an example off the top of my head, but I know some have been posted on this board. In some cases, the over-sniped cards aren't even very rare.

There probably isn't a real explanation. Non-snipers sometimes bid poorly, and snipers sometimes do the same. I guess I assume that snipers are a bit more savvy and less likely to do something crazy.

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  #20  
Old 01-15-2009, 12:43 PM
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Posted By: Alan

So what happens in the Ebay system if 3 or 4 people snipe (the same amount of money) at the same number of seconds before the end of an auction ?

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  #21  
Old 01-15-2009, 12:47 PM
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Posted By: Dan Bretta

I think the largest jump I've ever seen was for an 1860's bound volume of sheet music that had a mint example of "The Homerun Quickstep" in it with a beautiful colorful cover. I think my snipe was something like $1200...it was not listed in the sports section and there was no mention of baseball in the book, but it had a nice picture of the one mentioned above....it was somewhere in the $80-$100 range and then just went up to $8,000 in the final seconds. I don't think my snipe even registered.

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  #22  
Old 01-15-2009, 12:48 PM
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Posted By: leon

Sniping won't allow others to run you up.....It happens all of the time. I can't recall how many times I have won something for less than I thought it would go for, by sniping. Last night I had a snipe of $222 on a card...I won it for $10.99 (it was probably only worth $12 but hey, I wanted it)......take care

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  #23  
Old 01-15-2009, 12:54 PM
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Posted By: Ed McCollum

but can you set sniping services to bid at major auction house offerings? I think either holding out for bidding at the last moment, or not entering my maximim bid on a lot earlier this year would have saved me a lot of money. I've started to dabble with Gavelsnipe, and have been happy so far, as it has freed me from watching the computer constantly, but don't think I could say it has saved me any money.

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  #24  
Old 01-15-2009, 12:55 PM
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Posted By: Jim VB

"So what happens in the Ebay system if 3 or 4 people snipe (the same amount of money) at the same number of seconds before the end of an auction ?"

No different than a regular bid in an Ebay auction. If the item has multiple bidders at the same price, the first recorded bid wins. (Even though Ebay only shows bid times down to the second, I'm sure they have records down to the fractions of a second.)

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  #25  
Old 01-15-2009, 12:56 PM
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Posted By: Jim VB

"...can you set sniping services to bid at major auction house offerings?"


I don't believe so. Sniping only works on auctions that have a fixed closing time. The only places where I'm aware of this working is Ebay and Heritage.

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  #26  
Old 01-15-2009, 01:06 PM
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Posted By: Jim VB

We're really talking about a couple of different things here. One is "sniping" and the other is using a snipe service.



"Sniping" is merely entering your best bid at the latest possible time. What Rand described as his procedure is "sniping." He just chooses to do it manually. This usually works fine, assuming you don't want multiple items that are closing at times very close together. Sometimes a seller will use a program to load all their auctions to close at the same time. This makes it hard to snipe them manually. Also, the whole time zone thing makes it impossible for some (me, for example) to stay up late enough to bid on items that close at 2:00 or 3:00 AM.





There is no doubt that "sniping", in some form depresses prices for the sellers, because some people will not enter their maximum bid in an auction. They enter a high enough bid to be "winning". If you snipe, they don't have time to react and bid again.





Once you establish that sniping is the best way to go, the next logical step is using a service to do it for you. These services eliminate all (well, most) of the problems I mentioned.


Edited to add - What is the record for most consecutive posts by the same poster? (non-Dorskind Division)

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  #27  
Old 01-15-2009, 02:04 PM
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Posted By: Jamie

Wow couple cool stories.. i like the one where it was at 4,000 and jumped up to 12,000 thats crazy!!

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  #28  
Old 01-15-2009, 02:37 PM
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Posted By: S Gross

On ebay boxing cards (less collectors sometimes going after still rarer cards), I've seen 5x - 10x jumps in the final 5-6 seconds. Sometimes I see a ~$100 card sitting at 9.99 with a few hours to go. I may not need the card, but will take on a steal. So, I put in a $50 snipe. Now, when the auction is over, I see 2 or 3 guys had put in snipes and the cards goes for $150+. No big deal, I took a long-shot, and lost. But sometimes the long-shots hit.

Although the opposite has been argued, I think sniping can actually help the seller get a higher price. If everyone bid "normally" I would think the card in question would go for a "normal" price. BUT, if you get 2 or 3 guys putting in those "no one in their right mind would put a snipe in this high" snipe ------ then you get some crazy prices. I would say that in the those "Can you believe what this card went for" threads, this was the case.

Example: Leon (hi, Leon) won his $12 card for $10 with a $222 snipe. Now if someone else put in a snipe for $200, then he would have won a $12 card for $201.

Also with manual bids, I think you bring in more action to an auction. This is also good for seller, but bad for me as a bidder.

No one is right or wrong, what works for you is the best, but my philosophy is:

Survival of the fittest -------- Snipe or be sniped !! happy.gif

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  #29  
Old 01-15-2009, 03:12 PM
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Posted By: leon

Yes, if some other nut put in a high snipe I would have had to pay up. I was sort of kidding about it being worth $12....it's probably a $100 card but is one I don't have, and have never seen before.....So, I was going to win it unless some other nut wanted to pay more. Even if I paid $222 for it I would have been ok....but $10.99 is a lot better.....You make good points though....best regards

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  #30  
Old 01-15-2009, 08:28 PM
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Posted By: macboube

I thought the snipe from appx. $1k to $2.9k for a '55 AA S. Luckman(sorry - postwar...but see dave h. on his pre-tv take, and the good 'ol days) was amazing last yr. - but a $4k to $12K snipe is awesome.

I have no problem with sniping, and do it within a pre-determined budget all the time.

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  #31  
Old 01-16-2009, 05:17 AM
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Posted By: Vincent



I recall participating in a Jack Smalling autograph auction afew years ago. Jack uses a written ceiling bid methodology with his auction (ie. highest bidder, x% over the second highest ceiling bid).

I lost out on a $75-$100 item, inwhich I placed a full market bid of $101.99 (I wanted the item). Evidently, there were other deep pocketed bidders who had the same idea too. The item sold for over $2000. I've always wondered if Jack ever collected in full?

Did I overlook the rarity of this item ??? I don't think so. Just a couple of crazy kids who placed crazy ceiling bids with the intentions of winning at any cost, and who tangled with another of their own kind. I, believe, on this board, those folks are sometimes referred to as "whales".

I wasn't happy losing out on the item, but it was worth a chuckle.

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  #32  
Old 01-16-2009, 05:47 AM
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Here's a very simple, easy-to-understand, real-life example of how sniping saves you money.

My snipe program usually triggers with 3 seconds remaining in the auction.

Right after last year's National, there was a 1938 Goudey Hank Greenberg in SGC 6 on eBay. I needed the card for my set, and this particular card doesn't make itself available that often in higher grades. So I set a high snipe - something like $1,200. I was willing to pay $1K for the card, but didn't think I would need to.

My sniping software, instead of executing with 3 seconds left, executed with 30 seconds left. My bid became the high bid at $677, topping the bid that had been the top bid at the time.

Except that since there were 30 seconds to go in the auction, the underbidder had 30 seconds to keep placing bids. He managed to squeeze off three bids before the auction closed, bringing the hammer price from $677 (where it was when my snipe executed) to over $1,000. I still won the card, but the failed snipe cost me nearly $400 in the last 30 seconds of the auction.

There were no other bidders at that point, besides me and the person I had topped at $677. If my snipe had executed when it was supposed to, I would have won the card for $677. Because it executed with 30 seconds left, there was a bidding war that wound up costing me $400.

THAT is the perfect example of why you don't put in your maximum bid and "let it ride" until the auction is over. The longer your max bid is in, the longer the other bidders have to push you up to your max bid. If you drop in your max bid at the last second, you circumvent all the furious bidding at the end, but still don't ever go over your max.

-Al

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  #33  
Old 01-16-2009, 05:59 AM
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Posted By: Jim VB

Al,



Ouch! Did we get a new snipe service shortly after?



One thing to be careful of. If you and some other fool (me, for example) enter exactly the same snipe, the bid entered first wins. So I chose not to set my timing at 3 seconds. I have mine set at 10 seconds (and it usually hits between 10-12 seconds before close.) I try to time it so that someone else doesn't have time to react, but I do want to be in before they are.



Edited to say- I actually lost an auction this way about a year ago. I had my settings at 5 seconds. The other guy went at 8 seconds and we had identical bids.


Edit Part deux- Actually, you can lose even if your bid is higher than his. If your bid comes second but is NOT up to the next bid increment, it won't take.

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  #34  
Old 01-16-2009, 06:14 AM
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Posted By: Zinn

Put your snipe in at $109.13. Doubt if someone else will have the same exact amount.

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  #35  
Old 01-16-2009, 06:18 AM
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Posted By: Jim VB

Zinn,

Correct. But if the other guy has his at $109, mine doesn't meet the next increment requirement, so I have to be in first. If I am, his bid of $109 bumps me to my max, but I still win.

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  #36  
Old 01-16-2009, 06:22 AM
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Posted By: Zinn

Well put. I overlooked that.

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  #37  
Old 01-16-2009, 06:46 AM
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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

Jim:

No, I'm an idiot.

Actually, I'm not an idiot, I've just bought so few things on eBay since the summer that it doesn't really matter. They gave me two free snipes for my trouble, which I used on small-ticket items, so essentially I wound up with something like a $2 credit.

Okay, maybe I'm an idiot.

-Al

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  #38  
Old 01-16-2009, 03:35 PM
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Posted By: Jim VB

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=280301664756&ssPageNam e=STRK:MEWA:BIDN


This was a train-wreck of an auction for several reasons (bad scans, no mention of PSA, 0 feedback seller, etc.) but the initial bidder put his best bid out there a couple of days ago. It worked fine until the last 3.5 minutes!

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  #39  
Old 01-16-2009, 03:48 PM
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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Al, that story sucks. I would have been out of my mind angry had that happened to me. I think you would have been lucky to have lost that card. Also, I find that a three second cushion is really cutting it close. I use a six second cushion and occasionally have seen my bids put in at less than three seconds prior to the end of the auction.

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Old 01-16-2009, 04:36 PM
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Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

Here is a recent example of sniping at its finest (this isn't a pre-war Baseball auction).

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=250348267566

The lot was on ebay at roughly $100 for almost the entire auction, and there were a bunch of us waiting till the end to throw out our bids hoping others hadn't noticed one of the Non-Sports Card "Holy Grails" sitting in the middle of the picture... but it was listed in the right category and it wasn't meant to be, my snipe didn't even register.

-Rhett

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  #41  
Old 01-16-2009, 04:41 PM
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Default Ebay Auctions.... Final 15 Seconds

Posted By: leon

I would be flying to PA to pick that one up on person. A 0 feedback ebayer and a card that is a 90k card for 21k?.....a plane flight would be a cheap insurance policy...regards

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  #42  
Old 01-16-2009, 04:54 PM
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Default Ebay Auctions.... Final 15 Seconds

Posted By: Jim VB

Leon,

Notice the seller doesn't say "PSA 8" or even "PSA graded" anywhere. I'm sure it's a scam. I bet your fight wouldn't even get you a little bag of peanuts.

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  #43  
Old 01-16-2009, 05:10 PM
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Default Ebay Auctions.... Final 15 Seconds

Posted By: Anthony N.

Ok, maybe Al's right and I'm a bit OCD, but if it's a must have item I use 2 sniping services. Justsnipe gives you 5 free per week, so that is my backup service (since they aren't nearly as reliable as bidnapper, my primary snipe)
I have no doubt that snipe has saved me tons of money, I'm always amazed that it would even be questioned. The only good argument against sniping is that if the seller doesn't see bids they are more likely to end the auction early for an offer. But there are certainly ways to combat that.

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  #44  
Old 01-16-2009, 05:31 PM
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Default Ebay Auctions.... Final 15 Seconds

Posted By: Chris Mc

I am technologically challenged so I enter a fractional amount of what the item is worth at the start of the listing and bid with about 20 seconds left. What it really comes down to is the one with the deeper pocket wins the prize.

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Old 01-16-2009, 05:51 PM
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Default Ebay Auctions.... Final 15 Seconds

Posted By: jay wolt

"THAT is the perfect example of why you don't put in your maximum bid and "let it ride" until the auction is over. The longer your max bid is in, the longer the other bidders have to push you up to your max bid"

Not only can you be pushed up to your max
you may even lose the card you covet altogether
by a few cents when the underbidder keeps bidding
and surpasses your maximum bid.

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  #46  
Old 01-16-2009, 08:21 PM
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Default Ebay Auctions.... Final 15 Seconds

Posted By: Al

I use esnipe for all my bidding. Long ago and far away, I used to bid manually at the 10 second mark, but I learned quickly that I was compelled to be online to do so. Sniping simply frees up my time to do other things. I do my homework, decide what I'm willing to pay for the card, put in the snipe and forget about it. Many West Coast sellers are still wide awake at 9PM their time when it's midnight on the East Coast...why on earth would you wait up so late to put in a bid manually?

I also think that putting in a bid say on day two of a seven day bid just exposes your position. Invariably somebody is gonna nip, nip, nip away till they top you. Esnipe points aren't that expensive.

As for auctions, you still have the option of selecting a high bid, as bids are incremented at 10% levels. The key to auctions IMO is to pick the sweet spot price and select it before someone else does, so in a way that's kinda sniping.

Sniping IMO is the only way to go, place your bid and do something else. Wake up the next AM and see how you did, works for me. Besides, you can't type fast enough to bid on multiple cards you may want that end within a minute or so of each other, at least I can't do that.

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