Anyone watching the insane basketball card prices?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Vintage hockey has gone up a little bit, but nothing worthy of discussion.

Now, let's get back to basketball cards because there is something I want to point out to all of you on here:

1972 Topps J. Erving PSA 8 eBay sales in US dollars:

Aug 23 - $9,600
Aug 24 - $7,600
Aug 31 - $7,001
Aug 31 - $7,400
Aug 31 - $8,100
Sept 7 - $3,850
Sept 7 - $3,700
Sept 7 - $3,550.71
Sept 7 - $5,100
Sept 10 - $3,935

Whoa!!! What the hell suddenly happened? How the hell does a card lose thousands of dollars in just a couple of weeks? What happened to all the NEW MONEY now, huh?

Your table is selective. This PSA data run is a more complete one (qualified card sales removed):

9/11/2020 $3,935.00 8 373188936799 eBay probstein123 1 43398000
9/8/2020 $5,100.00 8 383696317759 eBay probstein123 1 26597579
9/8/2020 $3,550.51 8 373176595500 eBay probstein123 1 28698213
9/8/2020 $3,700.00 8 363089218562 eBay probstein123 1 11244668
9/8/2020 $3,850.00 8 174417779408 eBay cardkast 1 02525478
9/7/2020 $4,938.00 8 274474367911 eBay pkrface Auction 06341751
9/5/2020 $6,500.00 8 224116457849 eBay kjam6885 3 27081984
9/1/2020 $8,100.00 8 402373764131 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 24736345
9/1/2020 $7,400.00 8 402373763798 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 26880780
9/1/2020 $7,001.00 8 402373763793 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 40890222
8/27/2020 $7,500.00 8 264844802944 eBay heyticketguy 3 06040208
8/25/2020 $1,540.00 8 (OC) 373152398426 eBay probstein123 Auction 19202030
8/25/2020 $7,600.00 8 383681510477 eBay probstein123 Auction 30884321
8/24/2020 $9,000.00 8 224128905953 eBay dand52261 Best Offer 25052507
8/24/2020 $7,000.00 8 402367199324 eBay allstar-cards Auction 23767118
8/24/2020 $10,766.00 8 143682543527 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 17134304
8/24/2020 $9,600.00 8 402361549305 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 14761030
8/24/2020 $9,600.00 8 143682543448 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 15717326
8/21/2020 $7,800.00 8 373148122396 eBay probstein123 Auction 40007138
8/16/2020 $9,500.00 8 224119415187 eBay dand52261 Best Offer 25052507
8/15/2020 $9,500.00 8 233680871242 eBay thecrimsonchild Best Offer 30376241
8/12/2020 $8,750.00 8 254684751727 eBay cbjoe Best Offer 25800102
8/11/2020 $8,080.00 8 Is PSADNA 363066455830 eBay probstein123 Auction 22787604
8/11/2020 $810.11 8 (OC) 154032821749 eBay flabledec Auction 47117710
8/8/2020 $6,499.99 8 133487902934 eBay lilybethtaylor37 Best Offer 09037750
8/7/2020 $5,200.00 8 303638834203 eBay eevans1552 Auction 02008685
8/6/2020 $5,995.00 8 363063453158 eBay icaancards Buy It Now 44210520
8/4/2020 $4,599.00 8 363059514181 eBay probstein123 Auction 50069088
8/2/2020 $5,555.00 8 203064842853 eBay exhibitman Buy It Now 28920782
7/30/2020 $4,799.99 8 264813410421 eBay the-eleven-club Buy It Now 26311199
7/30/2020 $5,677.88 8 353144777757 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 18737805
7/28/2020 $4,500.00 8 303631051655 eBay dr.sportzcardzenmore-scs Auction 05016321
7/27/2020 $4,500.00 8 333667008189 eBay djoppan-66 Buy It Now 25568929
7/27/2020 $4,500.00 8 283959942576 eBay rochester9002 Buy It Now 14993384
7/27/2020 $4,300.00 8 363058844697 eBay tbh39 Best Offer 44704777
7/24/2020 $4,600.00 8 373117534771 eBay probstein123 Auction 30899904
7/23/2020 $3,383.99 8 143654274282 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 22034630
7/23/2020 $3,410.00 8 353135923739 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 23556592
7/22/2020 $2,995.00 8 363053869399 eBay icaancards Buy It Now 40732438
/7/2020 $2,459.99 8 254609225712 eBay graded_psa_cards Best Offer 02012346
7/6/2020 $1,425.00 8 254636781845 eBay nolacali2 Auction 02085183
6/27/2020 $1,850.00 8 133449445410 eBay jackmay Buy It Now 46894492
/22/2020 $1,925.00 8 274390399232 eBay ez01 Best Offer 60117972
6/13/2020 $1,650.00 8 333614881923 eBay selut-14 Best Offer 26566064
6/12/2020 $1,459.09 8 124215022217 eBay kencope Auction 30376241
6/7/2020 $1,850.00 8 233604685400 eBay thiel12 Buy It Now 27081984
6/3/2020 $1,818.00 8 383563060432 eBay probstein123 Auction 06318666
6/1/2020 $1,913.00 8 402270041474 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 25325982
5/31/2020 $1,850.00 8 264735280718 eBay sportssource2 Best Offer 02147479
/26/2020 $1,620.00 8 44178 Heritage Auctions Auction 02005029
5/22/2020 $1,483.00 8 264731235157 eBay honestjackcards Auction 01084409
5/21/2020 $1,791.00 8 402257335001 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 15606771
5/5/2020 $1,680.00 8 373034658494 eBay probstein123 Auction 43261729
5/1/2020 $1,341.00 8 143585894677 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 01084409
4/22/2020 $1,109.00 8 143578316417 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 27337477
4/20/2020 $1,020.00 8 2261 Robert Edward Auctions 2020 Spring Auction 06088847
4/20/2020 $1,110.00 8 2262 Robert Edward Auctions 2020 Spring Auction 27958112
3/27/2020 $1,099.00 8 254550547893 eBay wildavi-28 Buy It Now 27320761
3/25/2020 $915.76 8 114155220433 eBay goldustnrouge Auction 45816396
3/22/2020 $1,125.00 8 402157198613 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 03693313
3/22/2020 $1,236.00 8 143553760087 eBay pwcc_auctions Auction 31636188
3/9/2020 $982.00 8 362932131281 eBay probstein123 Auction 28212796


Now, removing the PWCC and Probstein results because, you know, they strike some as about as genuine as a stripper's boobs:

9/8/2020 $3,850.00 8 174417779408 eBay cardkast 1 02525478
9/7/2020 $4,938.00 8 274474367911 eBay pkrface Auction 06341751
9/5/2020 $6,500.00 8 224116457849 eBay kjam6885 3 27081984
8/27/2020 $7,500.00 8 264844802944 eBay heyticketguy 3 06040208
8/24/2020 $9,000.00 8 224128905953 eBay dand52261 Best Offer 25052507
8/24/2020 $7,000.00 8 402367199324 eBay allstar-cards Auction 23767118
8/16/2020 $9,500.00 8 224119415187 eBay dand52261 Best Offer 25052507
8/15/2020 $9,500.00 8 233680871242 eBay thecrimsonchild Best Offer 30376241
8/12/2020 $8,750.00 8 254684751727 eBay cbjoe Best Offer 25800102
8/11/2020 $8,080.00 8 Is PSADNA 363066455830 eBay probstein123 Auction 22787604
8/8/2020 $6,499.99 8 133487902934 eBay lilybethtaylor37 Best Offer 09037750
8/7/2020 $5,200.00 8 303638834203 eBay eevans1552 Auction 02008685
8/6/2020 $5,995.00 8 363063453158 eBay icaancards Buy It Now 44210520
8/2/2020 $5,555.00 8 203064842853 eBay exhibitman Buy It Now 28920782
7/30/2020 $4,799.99 8 264813410421 eBay the-eleven-club Buy It Now 26311199
7/28/2020 $4,500.00 8 303631051655 eBay dr.sportzcardzenmore-scs Auction 05016321
7/27/2020 $4,500.00 8 333667008189 eBay djoppan-66 Buy It Now 25568929
7/27/2020 $4,500.00 8 283959942576 eBay rochester9002 Buy It Now 14993384
7/27/2020 $4,300.00 8 363058844697 eBay tbh39 Best Offer 44704777
7/22/2020 $2,995.00 8 363053869399 eBay icaancards Buy It Now 40732438
/7/2020 $2,459.99 8 254609225712 eBay graded_psa_cards Best Offer 02012346
7/6/2020 $1,425.00 8 254636781845 eBay nolacali2 Auction 02085183
6/27/2020 $1,850.00 8 133449445410 eBay jackmay Buy It Now 46894492
/22/2020 $1,925.00 8 274390399232 eBay ez01 Best Offer 60117972
6/13/2020 $1,650.00 8 333614881923 eBay selut-14 Best Offer 26566064
6/12/2020 $1,459.09 8 124215022217 eBay kencope Auction 30376241
6/7/2020 $1,850.00 8 233604685400 eBay thiel12 Buy It Now 27081984
5/31/2020 $1,850.00 8 264735280718 eBay sportssource2 Best Offer 02147479
/26/2020 $1,620.00 8 44178 Heritage Auctions Auction 02005029
5/22/2020 $1,483.00 8 264731235157 eBay honestjackcards Auction 01084409
4/20/2020 $1,020.00 8 2261 Robert Edward Auctions 2020 Spring Auction 06088847
4/20/2020 $1,110.00 8 2262 Robert Edward Auctions 2020 Spring Auction 27958112
3/27/2020 $1,099.00 8 254550547893 eBay wildavi-28 Buy It Now 27320761
3/25/2020 $915.76 8 114155220433 eBay goldustnrouge Auction 45816396

This presents a more complete picture of the price movements since the start of the pandemic run-up.

I generally agree that there was a bubble of prices that hit its height last month and may have started downward this month (need to see a few more sales to confirm a trend, I think). My guess as to why is the various stimulus packages running out. When the government was throwing free money at us, people spent it on cards and the fact that they were skyrocketing made it seem like a smart bet. That looks to have ended starting 7/31 with the end of extended unemployment benefits and (more important, I think) the start of the end of the spending of the 2nd wave of money from the SBA loans under the PPP program (for those who don't follow it, these were loans that you could have forgiven if you shoveled the money out the door on payroll and overhead expenses--and the initial law required you to spend it in eight weeks--so many small business owners were able to use the loans to pay themselves as employees of their entities, effectively getting a free pool of money).

What will be interesting is to see if the pattern holds for other cards that have had strong run-ups over the last six months. Even more interesting will be to see if the prices drop all at once.

FWIW, I thought the Dr. J. RC was grossly undervalued at the levels of a year ago. My thinking was that $1500-$2000 is about right for a PSA 8 caliber example.