PSA/SGC Waiting Lines At 2019 National

[steve B]

Originally Posted by BobC

Also, just because the Blowout guys find scans that show similar marks on supposedly the same card graded twice and bumped up with the second grading, doesn't mean that there couldn't actually be others of those exact same cards with the same, similar marks on them.

On a handful of the cards they've shown, there were few marks. And a few of the marks shown are possibly something that would be on several cards.

But most of the marks are actually dark fibers within the cardstock itself. They're a remnant of the papermaking process, and the odds of one piece of paper having nearly identical dark fibers in the exact same locations would be incredible. Could it happen? I suppose it can't be scientifically ruled out.
Could it happen over and over again and pretty much only on cards that have passed through one particular person? I'm willing to call that one a NO.

The modern cards they began with were serial numbered, which is pretty much certain.

Unless the companies make two identical groups of numbered inserts, there is /was at least one Fleer basketball 1/1 that two examples were found. One was fleers file or backup copy that was bought in the auction.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by steve B

On a handful of the cards they've shown, there were few marks. And a few of the marks shown are possibly something that would be on several cards.

But most of the marks are actually dark fibers within the cardstock itself. They're a remnant of the papermaking process, and the odds of one piece of paper having nearly identical dark fibers in the exact same locations would be incredible. Could it happen? I suppose it can't be scientifically ruled out.
Could it happen over and over again and pretty much only on cards that have passed through one particular person? I'm willing to call that one a NO.

The modern cards they began with were serial numbered, which is pretty much certain.

Unless the companies make two identical groups of numbered inserts, there is /was at least one Fleer basketball 1/1 that two examples were found. One was fleers file or backup copy that was bought in the auction.

Steve, thanks for the additional insight. I didn't think or intend what I was saying to refer to all the cards on the list, just that there could be some that could possibly turn up with similar markings. Obviously if there were sequentially numbered modern cards, and the two graded cards are the same number, that is of course a dead giveaway. Still I was merely pointing out how some attorney could try to argue that the allegations that every card on the list was doctored was not correct. I was not as aware of the issue of the dark fibers in the cardstock, and that is a very telling point that you brought out that goes to show the great work done by the Blowout card guys.

And Peter, I also agree with you that what is being done is wrong and illegal, and please don't think I don't realize that. The amount of evidence seems absolutely insane and the coincidental and hard evidence seems so overwhelming that most would found it hard not to convict the people involved of some level of fraud, at the least. And you are absolutely right that if it does go that far, the prosecution will go after and obtain much, much more information in their case. But that is where it gets even more interesting in that what will that information end up showing? Based on what little we've really seen so far, who exactly does everyone think is truly at fault? Obviously the card doctor(s) are the primary targets, but what about all the other parties involved, sellers, TPGs, dealers, they all have benefited and profited from the exploits of these card doctors it seems. To what level, they did or did not know about the exploits of these card doctors, or should have known, could be devastating. How many times have I seen and read threads where someone mentions contacting these sellers, dealers and TPGs to warn them about the nefarious exploits of these card doctors, shillers, and on and on. And then there are the follow-up posts where everyone complains about how it ends up being business as usual and nothing is ever done. So if something concrete finally does come from this latest issue, what can these dealers, sellers and TPGs use for a defense, they didn't know and/or no one ever told them about such possible issues and problems? If evidence eventually does come out to prove that others besides the card doctors themselves were in on this, hopefully the others involved can't just hide behind such a statement that they didn't know and everyone gives them a free pass. It seems almost implausible that if the level, extent and duration of these various issues and antics have been going on involving all the current participants for as long as they have, how could any one of the major players and participants in all this not know about what was going on and be complicit on some level? You've been diligent and at the forefront in bringing and keeping this issue at the forefront for everyone, and I commend you for that as well.

And then if there does come a major case and blow-up of the collecting hobby and system as we now know it, and the added fallout and impact spills over onto the Registry itself to where that implodes as well, the potential negative affect in values and people's collections could be unbelievably detrimental. Which is why you may call me stupid if you like, but for a lot of people with valuable collections that stand to lose a lot if the worst case scenario comes out of all this, they may want to be quiet and not say another word about any of this and hope it all does go away and that things continue on as they are. And that probably includes a lot of people on this forum.

I've been at the office too long and am going home. You guys all have a nice night and lets hope this whole situation can find some resolution that works out best for the hobby as a whole. Only wish I knew what it was. And thank God I basically only collect lower-end stuff and have never gone for the high-end graded items over the years.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobC

Steve, thanks for the additional insight. I didn't think or intend what I was saying to refer to all the cards on the list, just that there could be some that could possibly turn up with similar markings. Obviously if there were sequentially numbered modern cards, and the two graded cards are the same number, that is of course a dead giveaway. Still I was merely pointing out how some attorney could try to argue that the allegations that every card on the list was doctored was not correct. I was not as aware of the issue of the dark fibers in the cardstock, and that is a very telling point that you brought out that goes to show the great work done by the Blowout card guys.

And Peter, I also agree with you that what is being done is wrong and illegal, and please don't think I don't realize that. The amount of evidence seems absolutely insane and the coincidental and hard evidence seems so overwhelming that most would found it hard not to convict the people involved of some level of fraud, at the least. And you are absolutely right that if it does go that far, the prosecution will go after and obtain much, much more information in their case. But that is where it gets even more interesting in that what will that information end up showing? Based on what little we've really seen so far, who exactly does everyone think is truly at fault? Obviously the card doctor(s) are the primary targets, but what about all the other parties involved, sellers, TPGs, dealers, they all have benefited and profited from the exploits of these card doctors it seems. To what level, they did or did not know about the exploits of these card doctors, or should have known, could be devastating. How many times have I seen and read threads where someone mentions contacting these sellers, dealers and TPGs to warn them about the nefarious exploits of these card doctors, shillers, and on and on. And then there are the follow-up posts where everyone complains about how it ends up being business as usual and nothing is ever done. So if something concrete finally does come from this latest issue, what can these dealers, sellers and TPGs use for a defense, they didn't know and/or no one ever told them about such possible issues and problems? If evidence eventually does come out to prove that others besides the card doctors themselves were in on this, hopefully the others involved can't just hide behind such a statement that they didn't know and everyone gives them a free pass. It seems almost implausible that if the level, extent and duration of these various issues and antics have been going on involving all the current participants for as long as they have, how could any one of the major players and participants in all this not know about what was going on and be complicit on some level? You've been diligent and at the forefront in bringing and keeping this issue at the forefront for everyone, and I commend you for that as well.

And then if there does come a major case and blow-up of the collecting hobby and system as we now know it, and the added fallout and impact spills over onto the Registry itself to where that implodes as well, the potential negative affect in values and people's collections could be unbelievably detrimental. Which is why you may call me stupid if you like, but for a lot of people with valuable collections that stand to lose a lot if the worst case scenario comes out of all this, they may want to be quiet and not say another word about any of this and hope it all does go away and that things continue on as they are. And that probably includes a lot of people on this forum.

I've been at the office too long and am going home. You guys all have a nice night and lets hope this whole situation can find some resolution that works out best for the hobby as a whole. Only wish I knew what it was. And thank God I basically only collect lower-end stuff and have never gone for the high-end graded items over the years.

Brent knew. I've already explained how I know that, as if the rest of the evidence doesn't clearly show it anyhow. I also have no doubt many AHs and dealers knew exactly what they were taking from card doctors. Card doctors have been feeding these people for a long time.

[Kenny Cole]

But hey, since he's paying some people back, fraud didn't occur. Just ask Jake. Restitution for theft fixes all. Nothing to see here, move along.

[oldjudge]

Barry—This is a quote from you in a post a few spots up:

“That's the great question and we know that collectors don't all agree on why this phenomenon has occurred. One thing, however, that the grading services have been able to do incredibly well is make money for their customers and themselves. As has been often said, they literally mint money. And unfortunately we know that card doctor's and fraudsters have been among the beneficiaries of it all.”

My question to you is what basis do you have to say that PSA mints money for themselves? Tell me if I’m wrong, but I’d guess that you have never looked at their financials. In point of fact, Collectors Universe is a not particularly profitable company. In 2018, the company made $6.2 million, the low point for the last five years. Their cash flow, excluding a credit line drawdown was over $2 million in the red, and that is with halving their dividend midway through the year. Despite the large volume of submissions they take in at shows, it appears to me that they are struggling to survive.

[barrysloate]

I haven't looked at their financials Jay, you are correct. But I believe they have created one of the most incredible marketing coups with the set registry. How many thousands and thousands of cards have been resubmitted to see if they can get a bump?

If PSA is the weak link here, fine. But how many collector have made a ton of money by getting that bump? How much money do collectors make when they submit a crappy card that has been altered and get it graded a 7 or 8? I'm sure I could come up with a few more, but it's 5:30 AM and I need another cup of coffee.

But I haven't done an audit so perhaps my numbers are less than perfect.

[barrysloate]

Jay- I've come up with an example of how money is minted that I wish to share. I don't speak with many collectors, and I'm sure my story is a familiar one to those who are active in the market. I'll leave out names to protect the innocent.

A number of years ago a good friend of mine had a valuable baseball card graded a 7. He decided to resubmit it to see if he could get a bump. He sent it in again, and again, and again, and again.

The first four times it remained a 7. You would think that PSA was demonstrating some much needed consistency by recognizing the card's limitations. But lo and behold, on the fifth try he got an 8. How did this card suddenly jump a full grade? I have absolutely no idea, nor did he. And let's look at the transaction. PSA got paid five times to grade the same card. Nice work if you can get it. When was the last time you paid your plumber five times to fix the same leak? And my friend, who paid five grading fees and threw them well over $500 (rates were lower then) got back a baseball card that just added around $5000 of value.

So everyone made out like a bandit on that transaction, and absolutely nothing was created or built. All that took place is they passed the same card back and forth to each other. So that's an example of minting money out of thin area. I can't speak for PSA's bottom line, but that one transaction was quite profitable.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Barry—This is a quote from you in a post a few spots up:

“That's the great question and we know that collectors don't all agree on why this phenomenon has occurred. One thing, however, that the grading services have been able to do incredibly well is make money for their customers and themselves. As has been often said, they literally mint money. And unfortunately we know that card doctor's and fraudsters have been among the beneficiaries of it all.”

My question to you is what basis do you have to say that PSA mints money for themselves? Tell me if I’m wrong, but I’d guess that you have never looked at their financials. In point of fact, Collectors Universe is a not particularly profitable company. In 2018, the company made $6.2 million, the low point for the last five years. Their cash flow, excluding a credit line drawdown was over $2 million in the red, and that is with halving their dividend midway through the year. Despite the large volume of submissions they take in at shows, it appears to me that they are struggling to survive.

they are sitting on almost 16 million of cash according to the latest Q. The stock is way up this year. 11.49 on 1/2, 22.23 yesterday. Weren't people clamoring to short it?

[Johnny630]

Would be interesting to know if PSA is paying back PWCC for all the bad cards in their holders that they sold in there auction.Kinda like here keep quiet we will get through this.... PSA to PWCC make it right with your customers buy back the cards in full, apologize make it right...we will take care of you wink wink wink.
It's the right business decison 100% for both compaines. With the caveat our business model and marketing cant be beat these idots are addicted to registry and pop report. We will get through this just do whats right and keep hush......

Buyers Think Oh Wow PWCC is so great they're paying me back in full im so pleased I’ll buy from theses guys again ......they have great cards.......meanwhile the toothpaste has already been squeezed out of the tube. A day late and a dollar short if you ask me. I bet the general buyers will continue to take PSA and PWCC bait hook line and skiner. Who do I blame if they continue to do this? The buyer... All the information is here do with it as you may.....my mind has been made up.
A Fool and his Money are Soon Parted.

[CuriousGeorge]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

they are sitting on almost 16 million of cash according to the latest Q. The stock is way up this year. 11.49 on 1/2, 22.23 yesterday. Weren't people clamoring to short it?

They were added to the Russell 2000 index. Funds need to own it that mimic its returns.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

they are sitting on almost 16 million of cash according to the latest Q. The stock is way up this year. 11.49 on 1/2, 22.23 yesterday. Weren't people clamoring to short it?

Peter--Sitting on sixteen million in cash? They're a public company for gosh sake. How much debt do they have? How many companies in your stock portfolio have less than sixteen million in cash? Their stock is up recently just because some yutzes decided that is was a good idea to short a thinly traded closely held company. It's called a short squeeze. No one is going to confuse CLCT and AAPL.They didn't cut their dividend in half because everything was going great.

Barry-Sounds like your friend thought his card was an 8 and he finally got it. My guess is that it was a borderline 7/8 and with enough submissions he got the higher possibility.