The trend in Wagner cards

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

Hey Brunswick, just a heads up, you have the e286 Ju Ju Drums Wagner listed as a portrait on your checklist. It's actually a batting follow through action pose. I used to own one, sadly, it rests in someone else's collection now.

Not a portrait… total graded pop is 3-5, two may be crossovers from SGC to PSA

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

REA’s 10-day extended summer auction started today, and this m116 Sporting Life Wagner portrait (blue background total POP of 65) is already over $15K from nearly 70 bids (not my card, nor bidding on it):
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=153632

Based on the last 1910 Authentic graded Tip Top Bread auctioning for $30K, and % increases for other portrait issues like this, are Wagner portrait’s baseline moving in the direction of 1952 Topps Mick? With 739+/- total graded Wagner portrait cards across all issues and 2,500+/- 52 Topps Micks, there certainly are significantly fewer Wagners than Micks.

Hardly a typical 1.

[brunswickreeves]

Thanks, Excel and analysis updated.

[Brian]

Great job, Brunswick!

Can you break down the two types of M116s? Did you conflate them for a reason (Beckett)? It would be nice to see how the blue and pastel compare on the Excel. Just thinking.....

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As stated I own two 5s so I am delighted with the price, but I am curious what comps made you think going in it would go that high?

Maybe it was the house. Didn't PWCC do that with their clients? Probably not all that uncommon with most houses who have clients who are close with the house. Personally I would not be having chats about the value of cards I am interested in with an auction house.

Cannot say if he got a great deal or not, long or short term but he definitely set a comp and those who fear missing out will use that sale as the current benchmark. Expect to see even stronger prices paid on these for the near future.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Maybe it was the house. Didn't PWCC do that with their clients? Probably not all that uncommon with most houses who have clients who are close with the house. Personally I would not be having chats about the value of cards I am interested in with an auction house.

Cannot say if he got a great deal or not, long or short term but he definitely set a comp and those who fear missing out will use that sale as the current benchmark. Expect to see even stronger prices paid on these for the near future.

Yeah I remember a guy who posted about a PSA 9 52B Musial here who was actually bragging about how he had reviewed his target price with Brent (I guess it made him seem self-important?) and lo and behold that's where it went. LOL. And not surprisingly it later was identified by Blowout as recolored. Oops.

No idea about the Wagner except still waiting to hear from the winner on what he based his expectancy of a 50K price.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah I remember a guy who posted about a PSA 9 52B Musial here who was actually bragging about how he had reviewed his target price with Brent (I guess it made him seem self-important?) and lo and behold that's where it went. LOL. And not surprisingly it later was identified by Blowout as recolored. Oops.

No idea about the Wagner except still waiting to hear from the winner on what he based his expectancy of a 50K price.

Based on his last post I am guessing he is not reading this thread closely (due to excitement...his word not mine). Maybe he is not here to provide answers but merely to make announcements.

Amazing, if true, on the dude with the 52B Musial. Seems a lot of PWCC's buyers trusted him to have conversations about card values.

[Casey2296]

Always nice to see a run up in values on cards that long time collectors now have a choice to cash in or not. I've always had a sense during the run up that "investors" looked for guidance from hobby "experts" on where to invest their money for the greatest ROI, unfortunately some of those experts own an AH, which is a recipe for a conflict of interest disaster.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Based on his last post I am guessing he is not reading this thread closely (due to excitement...his word not mine). Maybe he is not here to provide answers but merely to make announcements.

Amazing, if true, on the dude with the 52B Musial. Seems a lot of PWCC's buyers trusted him to have conversations about card values.

The guy just came on here like he was so cool. A big shot. (The Musial guy)

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Always nice to see a run up in values on cards that long time collectors now have a choice to cash in or not. I've always had a sense during the run up that "investors" looked for guidance from hobby "experts" on where to invest their money for the greatest ROI, unfortunately some of those experts own an AH, which is a recipe for a conflict of interest disaster.

This hobby is a walking conflict of interest. Starting with owners and employees submitting their own cards for grading, and it goes from there. Just how it is. Stuff.... oh I need not say it again.

[RCMcKenzie]

I don't see where he posted anything unusual. He said "Hey, gang, I bought this card." like everyone else does.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I don't see where he posted anything unusual. He said "Hey, gang, I bought this card." like everyone else does.

The Musial guy.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This hobby is a walking conflict of interest. Starting with owners and employees submitting their own cards for grading, and it goes from there. Just how it is. Stuff.... oh I need not say it again.

Which always leads me back to the collector/investor dichotomy, I don't know the first thing about investing in cards, my gig is real estate, I do know exactly what I want to collect for my PC with no regard to investing.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Which always leads me back to the collector/investor dichotomy, I don't know the first thing about investing in cards, my gig is real estate, I do know exactly what I want to collect for my PC with no regard to investing.

Reminds me of the SNL New Shimmer commercial:

Wife: New Shimmer is a floor wax!

Husband: No, new Shimmer is a dessert topping!

Wife: It’s a floor wax!

Husband: It’s a dessert topping!

Wife: It’s a floor wax, I’m telling you!

Husband: It’s a dessert topping, you cow!

Spokesman: Hey, hey, hey, calm down, you two. New Shimmer is both a floor wax and a dessert topping!

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Brian

Great job, Brunswick!

Can you break down the two types of M116s? Did you conflate them for a reason (Beckett)? It would be nice to see how the blue and pastel compare on the Excel. Just thinking.....

Yes, have updated the Excel to break out M116 POP by color and updated the %es.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Reminds me of the SNL New Shimmer commercial:

Wife: New Shimmer is a floor wax!

Husband: No, new Shimmer is a dessert topping!

Wife: It’s a floor wax!

Husband: It’s a dessert topping!

Wife: It’s a floor wax, I’m telling you!

Husband: It’s a dessert topping, you cow!

Spokesman: Hey, hey, hey, calm down, you two. New Shimmer is both a floor wax and a dessert topping!

Yea, I don't know how to do that with cards, I'm fortunate that the cards in my PC have increased in value but that's not by design, it's my PC and I'm a collector at heart. Now if someone here would just sell me their Zeenut Jimmy Lewis I would be able to sleep more soundly.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The Musial guy.

Oh, I see, I don't remember him. Thanks for clarifying.

[toothcutter]

I based my 50k rational on previous sales. Tip top bread wagner went for 120k in may heritage auction. In that same auction i paid 31k for a 5 pastel portrait. In the current REA auction the blue bckgrnd Wagner is now up to 25k (w the vig) and its a 1 rated. I guess i just felt comfortable paying 50k. I also picked up the 21 Koester Ruth PSA 6 in memory lane , 1929 Roger Peets Ruth, and 1916 Globe store Ty Cobb.

[brianp-beme]

Thanks brunswickreeves for adding the E91C to your list. I checked the PSA pop report, and they show 60 total, so that amount could be added as well.

And a couple of little cleanup items on the list:

E254 Colgans Chips have two separate listings that should be combined, with
"1909-11 Colgan's Chips" and "1909 Colgan's Chips Stars of the Diamond". I think the best combination title for it would be "1909-11 E254 Colgan's Chips Stars of the Diamond".

And the Tom Baker Game listing should read "Tom Barker Game".

Great list...I really like the collaborative efforts of the community when it comes to making lists like these be the best they can be.


Brian - eduted to correct net54 ID of brunswick...I originally identified him as brunswicksteve !

[brianp-beme]

Just noticed that E105 Mello Mints is duplicated on the list.

Brian

[Peter_Spaeth]

When did prices on the pastel and blue diverge so much? I paid fairly similar prices for mine in the same general time frame.

[Danny Smith]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

Just noticed that E105 Mello Mints is duplicated on the list.

Brian

I noticed that too and sent him the info earlier today.

Here is the breakdown for the e105 Mello Mints:

Batting - PSA: 12 / SGC: 13 / Total: 25
Throwing - PSA 7 / SGC 1 / Total: 8

I own one of each pose.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

When did prices on the pastel and blue diverge so much? I paid fairly similar prices for mine in the same general time frame.

In my experience blue (for all M116s) have always been more expensive and desirable than the pastel. Maybe that margin has grown lately, but I don’t think so- I just think the price of both types of Wagners have grown such that $5k vs $8k is now $50k vs $80k

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

Thanks brunswickreeves for adding the E91C to your list. I checked the PSA pop report, and they show 60 total, so that amount could be added as well.

And a couple of little cleanup items on the list:

E254 Colgans Chips have two separate listings that should be combined, with
"1909-11 Colgan's Chips" and "1909 Colgan's Chips Stars of the Diamond". I think the best combination title for it would be "1909-11 E254 Colgan's Chips Stars of the Diamond".

And the Tom Baker Game listing should read "Tom Barker Game".

Great list...I really like the collaborative efforts of the community when it comes to making lists like these be the best they can be.


Brian - eduted to correct net54 ID of brunswick...I originally identified him as brunswicksteve !

Thanks, all suggested edits made to Excel and %es. Agree, is a fun collaborative project!

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Danny Smith

I noticed that too and sent him the info earlier today.

Here is the breakdown for the e105 Mello Mints:

Batting - PSA: 12 / SGC: 13 / Total: 25
Throwing - PSA 7 / SGC 1 / Total: 8

I own one of each pose.

Thanks, have made suggested edit to split out in the Excel.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Thanks, all suggested edits made to Excel and %es. Agree, is a fun collaborative project!

Thanks for doing all the hard work. Now here is some more...the E254 Colgan's Chip listing should be highlighted blue, as it is one of the right facing cards.

Brian

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

In my experience blue (for all M116s) have always been more expensive and desirable than the pastel. Maybe that margin has grown lately, but I don’t think so- I just think the price of both types of Wagners have grown such that $5k vs $8k is now $50k vs $80k

Hmmm... either I got an exceptional deal on the blue, or I paid too much (at the time) for the pastel. More likely the latter lol.

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

Thanks for doing all the hard work. Now here is some more...the E254 Colgan's Chip listing should be highlighted blue, as it is one of the right facing cards.

Brian

Originally the blue highlights were right facing portrait cards in color, and green highlights were for both right and left facing portrait cards in non-color.

I’ve edited the Excel so it now summarizes by right facing portrait in color (blue highlight), right facing portrait in non-color (gold highlight), left facing portrait (green highlight) and batting/throwing/other (no highlight), as well as by grand total # and %.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Originally the blue highlights were right facing portrait cards in color, and green highlights were for both right and left facing portrait cards in non-color.

I’ve edited the Excel so it now summarizes by right facing portrait in color (blue highlight), right facing portrait in non-color (gold highlight), left facing portrait (green highlight) and batting/throwing/other (no highlight), as well as by grand total # and %.

E254 Colgan's Gold it will be!

Brian

[sb1]

makes me wonder what this 1 of 1 is worth in todays market...

[benchod]

Beauty , Scott!

[benchod]

I like symmetry in my collection

How it began

[benchod]

How it ended

[terjung]

Those are gorgeous, Craig! I'd never seen that last one before. Thanks for sharing those!

[Rhotchkiss]

Craig, is that a CDV? How big is it? I have the same image in a cab-photo. Can’t be many of these images around…

[molenick]

Originally Posted by molenick

There are also two different 1911 T5 Pinkerton Cabinets poses. If I am reading the pop reports correctly, PSA has one of pose 853 (vertical, fielding) and one of pose 872 (horizontal, batting) and SGC has four of 853 and one of 872.

I did not see these added to the spreadsheet. Example attached for reference.

[Webster]

Nicely entertaining thread, Peter.

The 1913 Voskamps Coffee card appears to be missing from the list (could just be my eyes). Great spreadsheet, BTW.

[Brian]

Can there really be only 37 copies of the 1916 M101-4 Sporting News "golfing" Wagner (well, 38 if you include mine, which is, unfortunately, in the original GAI holder from 20 years ago)?

[Delray Vintage]

I am not surprised at growth in Wagner prices. The t-206 has some influence on other Wagners. For example the Tip Top Wagner has about the same population as the T-206 and is a beautiful card but is still available at about 5% cost of the t-206. So not surprising there is room to go up significantly. I see the Heritage Tip Top is already at 100k.

[Vintagedeputy]

Has the updated spreadsheet been posted yet?

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

Has the updated spreadsheet been posted yet?

Yes I’ve updated the Excel with the Pinkerton Cabinets and Coffee cards. If any errors or omissions, please advise and I’ll revise further. In the meantime, I’m looking into the M101-4 issues and counts. Thanks and happy collecting!

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Yes I’ve updated the Excel with the Pinkerton Cabinets and Coffee cards. If any errors or omissions, please advise and I’ll revise further. In the meantime, I’m looking into the M101-4 issues and counts. Thanks and happy collecting!

Is there a link? I must have missed it.

[molenick]

There is no link but there is a screenshot in post 15 that is updated as new information becomes available.

[brunswickreeves]

For most of us asleep by 11pm last night, this Fan Craze hit eBay and sold in under an hour for nearly $10K!

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by molenick

There is no link but there is a screenshot in post 15 that is updated as new information becomes available.

So simple, no wonder I missed it. Thanks!

[RCMcKenzie]

REA results for m116 Wagner blue 2017 SGC 20 $2400, 2018 SGC 40 $3600.

Why has it gone up 10 fold?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

REA results for m116 Wagner blue 2017 SGC 20 $2400, 2018 SGC 40 $3600.

Why has it gone up 10 fold?

10x would only be 36K but the PSA 3 just sold 53K, so 15x. Several posts above have offered explanations, but it's still hard for me to fathom.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

10x would only be 36K but the PSA 3 just sold 53K, so 15x. Several posts above have offered explanations, but it's still hard for me to fathom.

Feels more to me like a fear of missing out.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Feels more to me like a fear of missing out.

Perhaps, but I think a card still has to start moving a lot before that fear kicks in and then it feeds on itself?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Perhaps, but I think a card still has to start moving a lot before that fear kicks in and then it feeds on itself?

When a card that has had a relatively stable price all of the sudden jumps, it could at first be due to another factor but after a sale or two it will catch the eye of other collectors who will want to get in on the ride, imo and fear missing out. What made the first persons (since it supposedly takes at least 2 real bidders) bid more might not be why the next interested parties are bidding even more he next time the card is offered.