Is the baseball card market a "perfect" market? The Demise of the "price guide"

[arc2q]

I agree they are growing in obsolescene from the days when a price guide was the primary source of such information. It seems almost comical when you see auction descriptions say something like, "The card is worth $1500." It is worth what it sells for at auction -- something you will find out conclusively in 6d23h. Auctions are not a perfect market but they are far more reliable as a price determination than a price guide which may be based on total speculation.

I wonder why price guides like SMR have to be published every month? They seem to be using up a lot of content space for reprinting the same list (which is dubious to begin with) each month -- and they never change. They only list certain sets and then refer you online for other sets. Why not vary which sets are included in the price guide each month?

The thing that bugs me in price guides are the modern card listings (I have said this before so it is almost like my mantra). They throw around values that you know are totally made up and it is what leads to ridiculous bubbles. How does anyone know what the limited edition, signed, orange chrome, refractor card of the next supposed superstar rookie would really be worth when it has only been printed and available for two weeks and has never properly been exposed to the market? Yet they'll stick some number like $10000 next to it. Who would pay $10000 for a card printed last week of a player who probably has 3,000,000 different cards in print anyway?

[Rich Klein]

there are far more people interested in those happy shiny cards then they are in vintage cards -- and the market is actually very active on those cards.

While we can discuss the merits of planned scarcity/rarity against the natural selection of scarcity/Rarity; just remember that is a very active market (obviously not on this site) and those cards and players are traded very actively.

In many cases (not all) a Mike Trout signed to 25 is going to be priced farily closely to another signed Trout of 25. This does not work for all sets but more than you think there is.

In oither words, for about 99 percent of the market; NEW is where it is at and if you don't get pricing up ASAP -- the natives get very restless.

Rich

[glynparson]

in the vintage market on many/most items.

[arc2q]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

there are far more people interested in those happy shiny cards then they are in vintage cards -- and the market is actually very active on those cards.

While we can discuss the merits of planned scarcity/rarity against the natural selection of scarcity/Rarity; just remember that is a very active market (obviously not on this site) and those cards and players are traded very actively.

In many cases (not all) a Mike Trout signed to 25 is going to be priced farily closely to another signed Trout of 25. This does not work for all sets but more than you think there is.

In oither words, for about 99 percent of the market; NEW is where it is at and if you don't get pricing up ASAP -- the natives get very restless.

Rich

Rich-
You're absolutely right; I am being a vintage card snob in my comments. It is true that they are very popular (and I like them too -- I have a couple of the latest higher value cards of players I like). It just seems that reliance on pricing guides was more relevant/necessary when knowledge was harder to obtain. But with eBay and other online sites that track actual sales it would seem more appropriate to base value on what these cards actually sell for rather than what one magazine says it ought to be worth.

I shouldn't disparage modern card so much though. I do secretly still buy them.
Andy

[tschock]

Originally Posted by arc2q

I wonder why price guides like SMR have to be published every month? They seem to be using up a lot of content space for reprinting the same list (which is dubious to begin with) each month -- and they never change. They only list certain sets and then refer you online for other sets. Why not vary which sets are included in the price guide each month?

I think there are at least 3 reasons for this.

A ) To promote TPG (specifically, PSA).
B ) To promote the idea that there is "real" value to TPG cards.
C ) To act as an actual TPG "price guide".

This is my view on order of intent, but that can be argued.

And speaking of never changing...

I have March 2003 (monthly) Beckett VINTAGE magazine (remember those?) that I carry around to shows. Not as a price guide, but more as a reference. The interesting thing about the price guide aspect, as it relates specifically to POST-war cards, is that for all but a few star cases and some commons, the prices are NO different in this 10 year-old magazine than they are in one of the latest monthly baseball Becketts. Food for thought as to the "value" of those cards or the necessity for monthly "update" price guides.

[Rich Klein]

There has been movement in the vintage card world and that will eventually get into the magazine and annual guides as well.

Some cards will move up. some will move down -- but overall if you think about that, a 1960 Hank Bauer is not really going to change much in price for a long long time.

Ridh

[h2oya311]

I was just thinking about this yesterday. With VCP and ebay completed listings, there is so much more price transparency than there was in the past. I see many cards of similar grade sell for almost exactly what the previous one had on VCP (for graded cards, of course).

For this reason, I think card prices will likely stay around their current values for some time, despite or regardless of the state of the economy.

Access to markets for everyone (esp via eBay has really tightened up the disparity, although I feel that many folks simply don't know about the auction houses, so there is still a little slippage at times because some buyers don't know that there are other avenues to get cards thy want and they only buy on eBay.

Of course, this is just my opinion.

[Theo_450]

In 1982, when I became aware of my Dad's collection, we bought a price guide from the bookstore (imagine that). We will never know if those prices were close, because the thought of selling the cards did not enter our minds.

What that price guide did accomplish was to highlight the high dollar cards.
No matter if the prices were accurate, when you saw a couple extra zeros, you knew you had something good.

With all the information readily available in this day and age, that book seems pretty basic (I think we still have it somewhere). I wonder what it is worth?

[mrvster]

AGREED
I have never used a price guide.....market determines price

[JollyElm]

Price guides are a joke.

The sellers who rely on them to establish the price points for their merchandise are the same people who have the exact same cards at the exact same prices showing in their display cases year after year after year, show after show after show...

[Julz24]

And speaking of never changing...

I have March 2003 (monthly) Beckett VINTAGE magazine (remember those?) that I carry around to shows. Not as a price guide, but more as a reference. The interesting thing about the price guide aspect, as it relates specifically to POST-war cards, is that for all but a few star cases and some commons, the prices are NO different in this 10 year-old magazine than they are in one of the latest monthly baseball Becketts. Food for thought as to the "value" of those cards or the necessity for monthly "update" price guides.[/QUOTE]

Interesting. I actually do the same thing In a way. The only price guide I use as a reference is a modern card checklist from 1999. If the price in the checklist is around $50, I know I should be able to pick it up for less than $10. If the price is $100, I can probably find it for $10-25. There are however a handful of cards that are actually worth more than they used to be.

My wallet is always thanking me for not collecting heavily during the late 90's - early to mid 00...