Rare High Grade Type Cards Hold Their Own

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Despite questions about the survival of the US banking system
and the signs of a GREAT DEPRESSION becoming ever more apparent,
rare type cards continue to realize strong prices and draw attention
from a large number of distinguished collectors

Yesterday, for example, four D 310 Pacific Biscuit cards in grade 80 were
auctioned on E Bay. Each of the five cards was purchased for more than
$900. Four different (albeit well-known) collectors acquired a card.

Four cards graded 70 commanded a price averaging over $830.00

Whilst it is our belief that this is the first time such a large number of high
grade D 310s hit the market at the same time, we were pleased to see that
the current economic abyss did not impact card prices.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: peter ullman

I agree that these d310's commanded strong prices...much to my chagrin...as I was hoping to "steal" one for my collection...I was foiled...to many police present!

pete in mn

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Posted By: Andrew

The D310 is one of the few issues I was missing for my Portland type set.

They were hard to Snipe as I didn't want to win all four (~$4000 price tag), i.e., each ended within two minutes of the last, therefore, I couldn't cancel or edit my JustSnipe.
It's nice when sellers space out these types of offerings by ten minutes or so.

Anyway, I won this one and came in second on two others:





"Take your life in your own hands and what happens? A terrible thing: no one to blame." -- Erica Jong

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Posted By: dstudeba

I think the seller would disagree with you Bruce as they purchased these twenty cards just a month ago for $21,600. That would average to $1,080 per card, yet I don't think a single card even grossed that much.

If you don't believe me, here is a link to the original auction.

Mastro lot of 20 D310s

I am not saying it is the banking crisis that caused the loss, but to say that the card market is holding up when this lot of cards was broken up at a loss of thousands is completely erroneous.

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Posted By: Bob

I agree with Dan, the seller actually lost money on the cards. Surprising because you would think breaking the group up and selling them individually would have made them sell for more. I bid on everyone of them and was unsuccessful but I am not a true D310 set collector and only wanted to pick a few up at "nice" prices. Didn't happen.
I think the high grade scarce cards are going to see devaluation, not increased prices in the immediate future. Sorry Bruce, we disagree.

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Posted By: Dave F

Well, before they were auctioned I had inquired about what he would sell them for and was told 25k for the lot. I didn't even see where they ended on ebay but sounds like he wasn't anywhere close to that for the group (although I see he got them for 21k).

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Posted By: Brian C.

Draw what you will from these figures, but if I've done my math right, the Mastro lot cost $21,600 after buyer's premium, whereas the same cards on ebay sold for around $13,120. That's $1,080 apiece on average in Mastro versus $656 apiece on average on ebay.

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Posted By: Dave F

And if the intention was to pick them up in Mastro and flip them my opinion is you would do a little better not listing them all in the same week..but maybe 2 to 3 at a time. Anybody agree or disagree with that strategy? I'd be more open to going after a few if they were spaced out over a six week period...but I wouldn't want to tie up anywhere close to that amount in money for one week.

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Thanks for your comments.

1) Did not see the lot in the Mastro auction- it was one of their weaker catalogs
and did not spend a great deal of time with it.

2) We agree that breaking up an expensive lot from a Mastro or Robert Edwards
auction and then attempting to sell it on e-Bay does not work.

3) Two months ago- a large lot of high grade T 209's from a major West Coast
auction was broken up for E Bay- not a single card met its reserve. Now that same
group is being offered individually and as a group in the Mile High Auction.

It seems to us that if one is going acquire a large group of high grade cards in
a fiercely competitive auction with a 15-20% buyer's premium, and then hope
to break up the lot and sell the cards- that one better have at 40% room for profit.

4) As for prices holding their own- we may have been incorrect in our assumption-
not knowing about the Mastro results- however, we would not consider the price
drop here a reflection of a softness in the market as much the fact that the
dealer who bought the Mastro Lot made a judgement error in trying to break up
and sell it all at once on E Bay

5) Finally, on higher priced, rare cards, it has been our experience that one realizes
a better price with a Lifson or Mastro than one does with E Bay. As a seller you have to
factor out any fee you pay to the auction house as well as the large buyers fee

This would be an interesting topic.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: barrysloate

Which brings up a good point:

It used to be that it was relatively easy to buy a large group at auction and break it up into individual units and make money. That is simply the break value of the lot.

Since I go after the larger groups I do track them, and it seems like a large percentage go for full retail value, sometimes in excess of its break value. I assume most of the people who buy these lots are looking to make money, so why do they go so high? I see this as a small shift in the way the market used to work.

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Posted By: Joe D.

"I assume most of the people who buy these lots are looking to make money, so why do they go so high?"


Barry -

I can only assume that those who are bidding strong see a portion of the big lot as 'upgrades' or just plain 'hole fills' to the set(s) they already have. And if the cards don't come by very often - the bidder(s) don't mind paying the premium / selling off the cards they don't need and taking their lumps a little.


Depending on the issue - I would go stronger than breakup value if certain key cards were in a lot.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Joe- I agree with that, and a large lot of pretty high grade D310's doesn't come around too often.

But I also track mixed lots of T205's and T206's for resale, and I can't touch them. I'll figure out the retail value of the group card by card, and the final price will be higher than its retail value almost every time. That makes no sense because every auction is loaded with groups of those cards.

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Posted By: leon

I won 3 of the D310's last night. I was runner up on about 5-6 of them (I think)....with one of the whales bidding fairly heavily. By my calculation the 20 cards netted the seller approximately -$7000.....(yes that is a negative). I think it was more of an error in calculations on the break value moreso than the market right now. I do agree the market on all but the highest end, very best, is down quite a bit. It's actually a great time to be buying.......regards

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Posted By: Andrew

Leon,

Thanks for "letting me" have mine. :--)

"Take your life in your own hands and what happens? A terrible thing: no one to blame." -- Erica Jong

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Posted By: sagard

Listing auctions on Ebay is a gambler's game. Not sure why that lot wasn't leaked onto Ebay one card at a time with high BIN/BOs.

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Posted By: leon

The D310's weren't leaked one at a time for the same reason (probably) that I put all 5 of my BigEaters in our auction at the same time. I think many of the big hitters will try to acquire groups of cards to get started on a set. I did the same thing on the few sets I am going for. The difference between what I did and what the ebayer did *(who is a board member) was to start them out at prices that, if they sell, won't have a huge downside to them. I have made plenty of errors when buying things so I can't say this seller is the lone ranger in that respect. In the long run flippers/dealers better do more good deals than poor ones or they won't be flipping for long. If you buy and sell a whole lot you will eventually lose a few bucks. Obviously the key is to minimize the losses and mazimize the wins. It's not as easy as many think it is.....

My best "investments" have been with the cards I collect (first) and then sell several years later. regards

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

1951 Parkhurst Set of 66 PSA graded cards
Purchased Mastronet same auction $10800 with kicker
Sold for over $15000 or so..............

T207 Lot of 145 SGC cards
Purchased Mastronet same auction $19200 with kicker
Sold for slightly over $17000.................

Of course, none of the 'sold for' amounts include listing or final value fees..............

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Posted By: LetsGoBucs

Well, I would also agree that vintage baseball cards, non-vintage baseball cards, stamps, coins, etc are all going to experience a period of uncertainty between now and the end of the year.

Lets face it, no one knows exactly where the economy is going and unless your in the category of filthy rich, your at least a little bit concerned with what is happening to the financial system. If you've got multiple millions in the bank then you might continue along like nothing changed, but everyone else will be thinking that perhaps its time to scale back.

There may be some folks that decide its better to "own" something and they'll buy some high end cards. But I also believe there will be many more that get hit by the economic downturn.

Personally I think you'll see prices of high grade commons go down a lot and mid-low grade cards also decline a decent amount.

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Posted By: Chris

I know it's not pre-war (though it is a rare set), but this lot of 1968 3-D cards was purchased for $32,000 (plus the BP) on Mastro and was broken up last night on ebay for $48,000. The same seller broke up a 3 card lot of '65 T FB psa 9's for $3000 after purchasing it on Mastro for $1500.


Original auction:

http://www.mastroauctions.com/index.cfm?action=DisplayContent&ContentName=Lot%20Information&LotIndex=85140&LastLotListing=Lot%20Search%20List&CurrentRow=1>

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Posted By: barrysloate

Don't want to veer too off topic, but today's stock market results were truly scary. It has to be of concern to everyone.

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Posted By: Andrew

Yeah, but Jon Doe Taxpayer gets his righteous win by not bailing out those evil corporations. No bailout equals immediate gratification, but more pain for most later. For those with investments, 401ks, etc., and who are strongly opposed a government rescue, it must be a bittersweet day.

"Take your life in your own hands and what happens? A terrible thing: no one to blame." -- Erica Jong

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Posted By: steve

I was out fishing yesterday - forgot about ebay. But I had my eye on a 1926-29 Exhibit Rogers Hornsby PSA 5, 1 of the 2 finest PSA has ever graded. Couldn't believe it went for a measly $368.76 - jeez I was planning to bid higher (if I was around).

Where was the high price on a rare, nice grade type card of a major HOFer ?

But I have been picking up a few nice T206's at reasonable prices - very happy with these as investments - beats wall street - and they are a whole lot cooler than stock.

steve

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Steve

The set from the Hornsby card comes does not command high prices

See history below for other PSA 5 cards- note prices earlier in the year
for other HOF= and price for a different Hornsby

Whilst you won a nice card at fair price- hardly shocking


Card#DateAuctionPlayer NamePriceExtra
27 9/28/08 Hornsby (Chicago) $368.76
45 8/31/08 Ruth (Pose) $1,689.17
28 8/23/08 Johnson $677.68
46 6/7/08 Ruth (Batting follow through) $2,284.59
19 2/17/08 Grove $430.08
24 2/5/08 Heilmann $113.09
21 2/5/08 Harris $82.59
58 11/25/07 Traynor $114.59
16 9/27/07 Gehrig (Portrait) $1,124.70
26 9/29/08 Hornsby (Boston) $427.55
49 9/29/08 Simmons $143.31
66 9/29/08 Wilson (Hack) $414.99
11 9/29/08 Foxx $666.00
34 9/29/08 Meusel $74.00







Pi

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Posted By: steve

How does a rare high grade type card get huge price vs. rare high grade type card that does not get huge price?

example - the 1926 Hornsby I mentioned is:
1) Very rare, 1 of 2
2) High grade - doesn't get any higher than its grade of EX
3) Big name, Hornsby is top tier HOFer
4) Eye appeal, Hornsby card is real photo, very nice

A T206 Wagner is not that rare compared to the Hornsby - its not like the T206 Wagner is a 1 of 1, not plentiful, but they DO exist in small numbers.

Look at a Colgan's Wagner or Cobb, still not as rare as the Hornsby, yet commands bigger prices.

As far as I see, its 100% demand driven. The Hornsby must have little to no demand, hence the sub $400. price. The T206 Wagner has HUGE demand, hence the $100k + price. The Colgan's must have more demand than the Hornsby, hence its $2k price.

Both the T206 Wagner and the Colgan's in my example are more plentiful than the Hornsby.

It appears rare and high grade are not enough - there must also be a goodly amount of DEMAND. Kinda like a new business should look for location, location, location - a rare type card must have demand, demand, demand.

steve

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Posted By: leon

edited......

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Posted By: boxingcardman

“As for prices holding their own- we may have been incorrect in our assumption-not knowing about the Mastro results- however, we would not consider the price drop here a reflection of a softness in the market as much the fact that the dealer who bought the Mastro Lot made a judgement [sic] error in trying to break up and sell it all at once on E Bay.”

Yeah, don’t let the evidence get in the way of a good theory, Bruce.

Leon: I agree entirely on the Darby; it is an orphan issue that should get a lot more love than it does. I am still kicking myself for not buying a mostly intact one in Cleveland in 2004 for $400.


Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Bob

I will never be convinced that buying mid grade cards is not the way to go. I know I am in the minority here and won't ever see huge turnarounds but the midgrade cards, especially caramels and tougher regional T sets, hold their value well while high graded cards flop all over the place and are much more subject to wild swings. I love the cards anyway so the value is not the one paramount concern but with a rather limited budget compared to many here, I'll stick with the midgraders, enjoy them, make a little money flipping them to buy more cards and not worry about the high grade problems.
As long as a Republican sits in the White House it will be a good time to buy cards as the economy is going in to the toilet and I cringe each day when I check my retirement portfolio. I'm personally not using cards as a hedge against inflation (depression?) but I'm afraid the economy may drive some collectors either out of the hobby or at least cause them to sell part of their collection...

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Posted By: Jeff Prizner

it's not really about true rarity vs. pop reports or a tough low grade card vs. an ultra high grade one and which is better to collect... it's more about whatever the whales are currently collecting. Their impact on the market is amazing.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Agreed Jeff. It's as if there are two separate hobbies.

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Posted By: steve

what the whales are collecting .... aka demand.

Agree with Jeff also.

another example: the 1926 Ruth exhibit, pose. A super hobby classic photo, super low pop, even posters have been made with this shot. But, about $2k give or take gets you one of the finest in existance (if you can find one for sale). Obviously not high enough demand to bring what the card should be worth, IMO.

Probably never sell my 1926 Ruth pose PSA 5 - gorgeous hobby classic, but until the price goes way high, no sell for me, thats ok, I get to enjoy the beauty for quite some time I am sure.

steve

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Posted By: Wil Jordan

After reading "The Card" you have to wonder how many of these high grade cards are origional and not restored or altered in some way.

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Posted By: CoreyRS.hanus

"it's more about whatever the whales are currently collecting. Their impact on the market is amazing."

While the term "whale" might endure, the individuals who comprise them are apt to change. At least that has been my experience.

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Posted By: Pennsylvania Ted

That is the real QUESTION ! ?

And to BOB M's comment...."As long as a Republican sits in the White House it will be a good time
to buy cards as the economy is going in to the toilet"

Hey Bob, the DOW dropped 2800 pts. on Sept 12th 2001 to 8500. Subsequently, I guess George
Bush must of did something right....since the DOW eventually climbed to 14,000 by 2006.

Then the Democrats took over Congress in 2007.....and it's been DOW-nhill since then; and, Gas
prices went up above $4.00.

So, don't give us this crap about Republicans. It was the Democrats like Barney Frank, Chris Dodd,
and Franklin Raines (Clinton's buddy) that defended the sleazy lending practices of FREDDIE MAC
and FANNIE MAE that has resulted in the financial crises that we are currently in.

Both George Bush and Fed. Chairman Greenspan in 2003 warned these two Companies to correct
the way they were conducting their business. So, let's get the facts straight,we are in this mess
because of political patronage by a handful of sleazy Democrats and their influence on irresponsible
lending practices by FREDDIE MAC and FANNIE MAE (and other lending institutions).

And, now the idiots in Washington want a 700 Billion "bailout"......I say take this 700 Billion and
distribute it amongst the 50 Million Homeowners in order to help them with their Mortgages and
their expenses......instead of the politicians and the failing Banks.

That would result in each Homeowner getting 14,000......now that's a deal everyone would be
happy about.

TED Z

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Posted By: Jim VB

From the Network Forum Rules section:

"Politics and religion are also not permitted on the board and posts concerning this subject matter will be deleted. "

(Leon cuts some people way too much slack.)

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Posted By: jdrum

Jim,
He's just being "fair and balanced."

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Posted By: barrysloate

Well I agree with Ted that all the money should be given to those who need it most, not the Wall Street crowd who caused this mess.

But this country has had very little leadership over the past eight years, and our quality of life has eroded over that time. There's nobody to blame but the guys in charge (and that includes both parties).

Edited to add that while religion never has a place on the board, the connection between politics and our economy is fair game as it relates to our hobby (in small doses, of course).

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Posted By: jdrum

There's plenty of blame to go all the way around, but @ the heart of it all, greed as always.

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Posted By: Dan Koteles

let the middle class continue to pay these bills and bail everyone else out......this is rediculous

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Posted By: Brian Martin

I do agree with two things that Mr. Zandakis said. The $700 billion does need to go to those who need it, rather than the investment bankers who caused the mess in the first place.....and they will get us into another mess years from now, if bailed out. And I will go even further, regarding Christopher Dodd. Dodd is a traitor to the American people and what is left of our democracy. Thanks to his bill, which traitorous lawmakers passed into law, starting in 2011, the government will track every electronic payment. So they will know when you buy a roll of toilet paper with your debit card, or receive payment for your Ty Cobb T206. Unless the transaction is paid for with cash.
You could have picked any bum off of a street corner, like in the movie Trading Places, and he couldn't have done any worse than these billion dollar pencil pushing suits who moved toxic CDOs from Table 1 to Table 2, producing nothing tangible and destroying Wall Street in the process.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Definitely pencil pushers, no doubt about it. They produce nothing but deals.

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Posted By: jdrum

Brian,
I have since beginning on ebay paid for everything by money order. Now granted if it is lost in the mail it is a pain. I am no fan of paypal and no fan of anyone tracking my purchases. I'll send a check to folks I deal with on the BST occasionally but I agree that is scary to me.

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Posted By: Scott Fandango

do you use cash to purchase your money orders?