Class of 2013 -- HOF prospects

[Peter_Spaeth]

Machado and Arenado have had excellent years, IMO both are on track and even likely at this point assuming they continue to accumulate at least good stats. Cole to me had the potential but seems destined for the hall of very good. I don't see much chance for Yelich at this point. I can't think of anyone else in the running.

[Mike D.]

I agree on Machado and Arenado being well on the path. I mention both in my recent article on hitters on the HOF path.

I also agree on Cole...to me he's the poster child for just how hard it will be for a modern starting pitcher to make the Hall of Fame.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I agree on Machado and Arenado being well on the path. I mention both in my recent article on hitters on the HOF path.

I also agree on Cole...to me he's the poster child for just how hard it will be for a modern starting pitcher to make the Hall of Fame.

Will members of those cheating Astros teams be penalized by voters in the future?

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Will members of those cheating Astros teams be penalized by voters in the future?

My guess is somewhat, but not to the degree that PED users have been.

For example, Beltran will lose some votes when he comes up next year, but I think he eventually makes the hall. How quickly will be interesting to see...if he gets 50% of the vote next year, he'll be on a fast track. Less than that? It'll take a bit longer.

I mean, both fired managers were re-hired right after their suspension was up, so the game can't feel TOO strongly about the scandal. Heck, by losing the Mets managers role and not getting another one yet, you could argue that Beltran has been punished as much as anyone in the whole thing.

Beyond Beltran, Altuve and Correa may be on a Hall of Fame trajectory (if they age well). In the many years between now and when they appear on a HOF ballot, I imagine the outrage will continue to fade.

Of course, if there's one group that will hang onto slights, real or imagined, and who seem to revel in playing "morality police", it's baseball writers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'm not seeing Correa being on a HOF trajectory. WAR does like him though.

[G1911]

Machado is on track, but he has to age well. He needs several more high quality seasons to really meet the general thresholds.

Arenado's 3 HR titles and the first half of his career may be viewed with skepticism as a Rockie. How much remains to be seen, it was basically ignored for Larry Walker but has been held against Todd Helton, though his trajectory is improving rapidly now as the ballot shrinks. 3-4 more good years with St. Louis probably gets him queued.

Cole is on track but also has to age well, even with greatly reduced standards to reflect that Pitchers are no longer expected to play much.

None of these guys have accomplished enough to be elected solely for their peak. All need a few more years.

[Mike D.]

It will be interesting to see how the Hall of Fame standard for starting pitchers adapts over time. I would expect the answer to the the same way it always has...painfully slowly.

There are four active starters I'd say are pretty much HOF locks: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and to a lesser degree Zack Grienke.

After those guys...who's the next active SP who makes the HOF? Sale? deGrom? Cole? Of the three, I like deGrom's chances the best, but even those rely on some re-thinking of the HOF standard.

Beyond those three? Anyone's guess!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Machado is on track, but he has to age well. He needs several more high quality seasons to really meet the general thresholds.

Arenado's 3 HR titles and the first half of his career may be viewed with skepticism as a Rockie. How much remains to be seen, it was basically ignored for Larry Walker but has been held against Todd Helton, though his trajectory is improving rapidly now as the ballot shrinks. 3-4 more good years with St. Louis probably gets him queued.

Cole is on track but also has to age well, even with greatly reduced standards to reflect that Pitchers are no longer expected to play much.

None of these guys have accomplished enough to be elected solely for their peak. All need a few more years.

Cole's stats are a little better than I thought, but his WAR is 33 at age 32, is that really on track? Kershaw is 75 at age 34.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

It will be interesting to see how the Hall of Fame standard for starting pitchers adapts over time. I would expect the answer to the the same way it always has...painfully slowly.

There are four active starters I'd say are pretty much HOF locks: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and to a lesser degree Zack Grienke.

After those guys...who's the next active SP who makes the HOF? Sale? deGrom? Cole? Of the three, I like deGrom's chances the best, but even those rely on some re-thinking of the HOF standard.

Beyond those three? Anyone's guess!

I think these 4 would make the Hall if they retired tomorrow and never pitched again. They are shoe in's.

Sale, DeGrom, Cole are all possible but all have played very little even by the reduced standards of now. Sale has barely played since 2019 and has lost most of his early 30's. Degroom has pitched less than 100 innings since 2019. He has 1,326 at age 34, which even now is extremely low. Cole is 2 years younger than Sale, he might have the best trajectory for the long term.

I don't think anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Cole's stats are a little better than I thought, but his WAR is 33 at age 32, is that really on track? Kershaw is 75 at age 34.

The lack of innings will greatly lower this generations WAR, as it is a counting stat. Nobody is going on track to get 75. They're going to either not elect people, or switch to rate metrics.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by G1911

I think these 4 would make the Hall if they retired tomorrow and never pitched again. They are shoe in's.

Sale, DeGrom, Cole are all possible but all have played very little even by the reduced standards of now. Sale has barely played since 2019 and has lost most of his early 30's. Degroom has pitched less than 100 innings since 2019. He has 1,326 at age 34, which even now is extremely low. Cole is 2 years younger than Sale, he might have the best trajectory for the long term.

I don't think anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

Originally Posted by G1911

The lack of innings will greatly lower this generations WAR, as it is a counting stat. Nobody is going on track to get 75. They're going to either not elect people, or switch to rate metrics.

Felix Hernandez would benefit from adjusting our perceptions of a starting pitcher. He played for absolutely stinky teams that ruined some of his counting stats. He should have had one more Cy Young at least. If he doesn't get elected, I'm not sure deGrom will get elected.

https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/...er-of-all-time

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[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don't think anyone else is a serious contender at this point.

I'm with you, although I'll put deGrom ahead of Cole on my list. When deGrom does pitch, he racks up the numbers. in 11 stars this year, he's got 1.5 WAR. In 15 last year he had an insane 4.4.

Any of them will need to get and stay healthy. A tall order for any pitcher in their 30's.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If the reduced innings per start are the result of data about ineffectiveness in later turns though the lineup, perhaps someone will conclude it makes sense to go back to the four man rotation. At today's norms I don't think these guys are in any danger of burning their arms out and may be underutilized.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by todeen

Felix Hernandez would benefit from adjusting our perceptions of a starting pitcher. He played for absolutely stinky teams that ruined some of his counting stats. He should have had one more Cy Young at least. If he doesn't get elected, I'm not sure deGrom will get elected.

https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/...er-of-all-time

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

The problem with Felix is he started in 2005, when pitchers threw a lot more than now. He was done at age 28. By age 31 he was a detriment to his team. He had 3 great full seasons, 3 good ones, and a handful slightly above the league. King Felix was the man, but I don't see how he ever gets in. It's a real shame he burned out so fast.

Degrom has only 4 qualifying seasons in total. His rates are great, my personal opinion is a guy who barely even plays is not a Hall of Famer any way you slice it, but I sense this is a minority opinion now.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If the reduced innings per start are the result of data about ineffectiveness in later turns though the lineup, perhaps someone will conclude it makes sense to go back to the four man rotation. At today's norms I don't think these guys are in any danger of burning their arms out and may be underutilized.

For these 3 specifically, 2 struggle to stay in the rotation and even pitch at all. Considering the tens of millions they are paying for ace pitchers, the absurdly low inning counts they get these days just doesn't seem worth it. There will be have to be some return to more innings in some way, or we will just have no true starters to save money and everyone will be effectively a reliever.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Maybe Dave Roberts this year will yank all his starters after 3, instead of after 4. Much better to go with fungible journeymen than the four starters with a collective era of about 2.30.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Maybe Dave Roberts this year will yank all his starters after 3, instead of after 4. Much better to go with fungible journeymen than the four starters with a collective era of about 2.30.

Don't get me started on Dave Roberts

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Don't get me started on Dave Roberts

I've never seen a manager try so hard to lose. And at some point I don't care about the computer models, if I have the best pitcher in the league cruising with command after 4, I'm not yanking him in favor of some mediocre journeyman.

[packs]

It makes me wonder what people don't see in Mattingly. Both times he's been passed over (for Girardi and Roberts) the team sticks a mannequin in the dug out and thinks they're a genius only to find out later when the team needs an actual manager that they have no idea what they're doing.

[D. Bergin]

Anthony Rendon looked like he might have an outside shot. 30 WAR by his age 29 season...and then he joined the Angels, and everything fell apart...which by now seems like a self fulfilling prophecy.

Maybe Yelich can have a resurgence, but looking at his career as a whole, his two great seasons seem to be the anomaly, when looking at the rest of his career.

[D. Bergin]

I think if Gerrit Cole can get to 200 Wins and 3000 strikeouts before the end of his career (both pretty attainable), he'll have a pretty good shot.

Of course that will depend on if he becomes one of those pitchers that stays somewhat dominant throughout his thirties, or if he starts to fade away in his early 30's like most guys naturally seem to do.

He needs to get there through longevity. He was never dominant enough to have a short-ish career and get in anyways.