The future value of the Honus Wagner Card in the grade of 1

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Posted By: Eric Pugh

I think the dang thing will one day be a million bucks each in any grade. I actually said this back in 2001 or so, but never had the cash to buy one then for 60k or so that they sold for then.

Any of you agree? Do you think this is a bubble in the making, or a time where we will one day wish we all nabbed one for a mere 300k?

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Posted By: leon

At our Net54 Dinner, at the National, Doug Allen said he thought a 1 would go to 400k.....and someone else said 500k....who knows??

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Posted By: Rich Klein

And I'm still convinced that will happen. While it is possible that this card is in a bubble -- I believe that as the price of the PSA 8 continues to increase -- all lower condition Wagners will also increase. I truly think there is a good chance that we will see a $5M mark on the 8 and thus 10 percent of 5M is 500K. Of course, I could be very wrong, but being fortunate enough to be in the audience for the Wagner sale at the National; I'm more convinced of that than ever. I also say that with the long-term price guide experience and even longer-term hobby experience I have.

Now I wish I had about 4K running around in 1976 when the Piedmont Back was sold for that price (as reported by the old TTS).

Regards
Rich

P.S. I'd love to hear everyone else's thoughts on that --

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Posted By: samuel

if I had a choice between this card and the plank portrait, both in the same condition, I would take the plank. there are several cards from this set I would rather have. to be honest, after a certain point, scarcity doesn't mean much to me.

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Posted By: JimB

Samuel,
If you ever get a Wagner, let me know and I will trade you straight up for a Plank in the same grade.
JimB

P.S. Doug Allen's projection was for 400k in the next five years. Of course it will one day hit a million in any grade. The question is: "When?"

If the Jumbo sale brings other nice examples out of the woodworks and they achieve similar prices, I don't know if the lower grade copies would necessarily be hinged to the PSA 8 any longer. They could be hinged to mid-grade examples too. For that matter, if the Jumbo is worth 1.6, then the straight PSA 5 should be well north of 2 mil.

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Posted By: Robert Klevens

I guess it might depend on how many are available for sale. There have been at least 4 of them in auctions in the past year and the price continues to increase. The card I won for a client last year will not be on the market. If there are fewer cards available I am sure the price will increase even faster.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

There was a time that I used to say that I did not understand the appeal of owning a Wagner. That time is long passed. The mystique surrounding the card is tremendous. It's the marquee card in the hobby. And value-wise, there's only upside with this card.

I think Doug did a great job with his presentation, but I didn't find his $400K prediction within five years to be surprising. A 1 just sold for $317,000. A nice-looking SGC or PSA 1 might break $400K if it sold TODAY. I wouldn't be surprised to see one break a half million or even more within the next five years, if the circumstances were right.

-Al

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Posted By: keyway

I was at an auction somewhere around 1987 in New Milford. Ct. Tha auction house had consigned a large BB collection to sell. In it was a Wagner. Not in the greatest cond, but still a Wagner. Would have probably graded a 1 or 2. Anyway it sold for $36,000 to a dealer from Cooperstown. Man I would have loved to have that card, but didn't have the money. What a great investment that would have been.

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Posted By: Dave Hornish

... One MILLION dollars!

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Posted By: davidcycleback

... one million box.

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Posted By: Erick Lewin

It seems like the only way the cards going is up in any grade. However, when it comes to one graded a 1; It all depends on how nice the 1 is. There's probably more variance within this grade than any other. One 1 with great eye appeal, downgraded from something small and technical like a spot of reverse-paperloss, will go for way more than a creased up "hammered" 1. Even Authentic "trimmed" ones with great eye appeal will go for more i think.

Either way it seems like a good investment for people who have one!

Money is just thin paper they make more of everyday. Vintage cards are thicker cardboard that's out of print.

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Posted By: Jim

I was at that auction too, Keyway. So was Keith Olbermann and a group from nearby ESPN. It was in Woodbury Ct, and an old lady found a box full of cards in her barn. We gave the buyer a standing ovation when he announced his plans to donate the card to the Hall of Fame. He turned around and sold the Wagner later that year for 75K.

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Posted By: Bob Manning

I'd like to hear some discussion on why a Plank is worth significantly less than a Wagner in the same condition. They seem to be, roughly, of the same scarcity, and both are HOFers. Of course Honus is one of the original five, but I'm thinking that's not much of a reason for the disparity in price.

It may be simply that Wagner has become the showpiece of the hobby, and there's only room for one of those.

Ideas?

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Posted By: Anonymous

Wagner would make almost everyone's list of the top ten players ever (Bill James as I recall ranked him second) and is either the best or second best player of the deadball era. Plank just doesn't have that mystique, as even in the deadball era he ranks behind at least Young, Johnson, Mathewson, and Alexander.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I think the answer is partly the combination of the last two posts: the mystique surounding the pulling of the Wagner card combined with his status as one of the top players of all-time. The card had taken on a life of it's own, however -- to the nth degree -- for a long time now. Its iconic status dwarfs any reasonable explanation for its value at this point.

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Posted By: Fred C

This is the holy grail. Yes, there are several more cards that are more scarce and much rarer but this is the card that has defined the hobby. As long as there are people with more money than they know with what to do, the price will continue to creep up. $400K, $500K, who knows? When people don't want to sell and someone really wants one you know what's going to happen... $600K???

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Posted By: JimB

I agree with Peter and Jeff. I would not be surprised to see the Plank go up quite a bit as well. Recent sales have been strong on that card too. It lagged for a few years, but I think it is making a comeback.
JimB