I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[Rhotchkiss]

I am bored, sitting ay home, and waiting for football to start. So, to pass the time I am looking at every auction house I can think of. I saw a post here that PWCC extended its monthly premier auction last minute, and so I decided to look at what's in that (still open) auction. Really, there is nothing for me at all, as I counted a total of 3 pre-war cards in the whole auction (including a Magie error); its probably 80%+ new and shiny football and basketball with maybe as much soccer as baseball. Anyway....

Here is what I just do not understand: There is a 2018 National Treasure, Rookie Patch Auto, 7/99, of Luka Doncic, graded BVG 9.5, that is currently sitting at $280,000 before Buyer's premium. There is a also a 1952 Mantle, PSA 7, currently sitting at $240,000 before Buyer's Premium.

Luka Doncic has played in the NBA 3-4 years and has won absolutely nothing. Mickey Mantle is a first-ballot HOFer, who played almost 20 years with the Yankees, appeared in 12 World Series and won 7. He is an icon of his era. This Doncic card comes in at least one other exact same variation, except its numbered to 20; I am sure that same pic is on many other Doncic cards. The 1952 Mantle is likely one of the top 3 most iconic sports cards of all time. Not to mention, there are only 75 non-qualified PSA 7 Mantles, with only 56 non-qualified graded higher (close to the 110 of the Doncic RPAs)

How/why is a 2018 card of Luka Doncic worth over $50k more (with BP) than a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 7???!!!

I get I am a fossil, and I collect cards of dead guys that many young people dont care about, in a sport becoming less popular with each generation. But I am not talking about an E92 Eddie Collins or even a T204 Walter Johnson. I am talking about a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. I simply do not understand and cant help thinking/knowing that the winner of this Doncic (and many similar cards) will take a bath unless he/she flips it ASAP (and I pity the person holding the card when the bottom drops out)

[Peter_Spaeth]

Don't try to think like a millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers, you'll never get it.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Don't try to think like a millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers, you'll never get it.

Nothing wrong with owning a "few" pairs of sneakers.

I have called modern cards a game of hot potato for a long time.

Wonder how much that Yasiel Puig superfractor is worth now?

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Nothing wrong with owning a "few" pairs of sneakers.

I have called modern cards a game of hot potato for a long time.

Wonder how much that Yasiel Puig superfractor is worth now?

Wait..but .it was a 1/1... with 164 different variations

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Don't try to think like a millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers, you'll never get it.

Haha he's talking about you Octavio!

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[brianclat11]

I don't understand it either, other than to say it will probably all end badly for people paying that kind of money for contrived scarcity. I dabble in modern for sports teams and players I like, but at a reasonable level.

[Exhibitman]

Just a pee-pee measuring contest among the new generation of investor-collectors. Besides, it's PWCC. A lot of collectors won't even deal with them and I am guessing that many of them are into vintage and don't trust anything PWCC sells as not having been doctored.

[mrreality68]

Most of us are in the same fossilize boat as you and most of us are in the similar vintage collecting universe.

We appreciate the history of the game and the cards we collect.

Millennial’s and new money put money in the people and subjects they know and do not necessarily know or appreciate the past.

So their purchases will be modern and of those that are known/famous to them

[pawpawdiv9]

Sticking with the older stuff here--Much better than stocking up on Joe Burrow & Crappiolo, Josh Allen, Stafford Rc's...while the Mahomoes & Brady been on a tear.

[egri]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

...cards of dead guys that many young people dont care about, in a sport becoming less popular with each generation.

I think you answered your own question. That, and we're in a bubble right now that has led to all kinds of crazy valuations, not just in cards. Maybe there is an end to it looming; the meme stocks from 2020-21 have been getting hammered these past few months. Or maybe not; I've given up trying to time the market.

[Republicaninmass]

Because someone might pay more for it...someday. greater fool theory in action

[GasHouseGang]

Do you think it's going to be like the junk wax of the 90's? Everyone was so sure the price was always going to go up but they got left holding the bag.

[3-2-count]

Just a few weeks ago I was discussing this very subject with another board member.

This Ruth sold at auction in December for far less than what many Lebron James rookie cards are selling for at the moment.

Just let that sink in for a bit!

[Johnny630]

If the Chiefs Bills game is really good tonight like last nights Packers 49’ers this Auction Might Get Extended till Monday, why not, it’s ok to do.

[Tabe]

It's really pretty simple - demand. Modern basketball has a worldwide audience to a level that vintage baseball doesn't.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

If the Chiefs Bills game is really good tonight like last nights Packers 49’ers this Auction Might Get Extended till Monday, why not, it’s ok to do.

Johnny, I think today is going to be wild with 2 Championships on the line and for for those of us with skin in the game, the REA closing tonight. I can see myself stumbling between tv and office to check bids. Should be wild. I think even though it one of their sub prime auctions the bidding is going to be nuts.
And when we talk about dead fossils, let's not forget a very much alive former player dear to our collecting hearts: Willie Mays.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

Just a few weeks ago I was discussing this very subject with another board member.

This Ruth sold at auction in December for far less than what many Lebron James rookie cards are selling for at the moment.

Just let that sink in for a bit!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNhfT5Kg8Oc

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

...I get I am a fossil...

You're not alone. Nearly all the members of this board, even the twenty-somethings, are fossils.

I, for one, am proud (and glad) to be a fossil. While the "millennial social media apps cryptocurrency nouveau riche tshirt wearing guy with 50 pairs of sneakers" types have been buying modern the past two years, I have been acquiring Mantles and T206 HOFers. Had the newcomers targeted vintage instead of modern, my collection might have remained fairly static during 2020-21.

So, let them pay exorbitant prices for the Golden Ticket Rainbow Shimmer Ultrafractor of what's-his-name. Meanwhile, I'll be paying (slightly) less ridiculous prices for "pictures of long dead sporting men."

Credit to Peter Spaeth and Steven Finley for the quotes above

[babraham]

Originally Posted by Eric72

So, let them pay exorbitant prices for the Golden Ticket Rainbow Shimmer Ultrafractor of what's-his-name.

Nice! The Rainbow Shimmer is my favorite variation too.
The extra sparkle means more $$.

[drcy]

Long-term value versus short-term value

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by babraham

Nice! The Rainbow Shimmer is my favorite variation too.

The extra sparkle means more $$.

Naw. Much better to spend exorbitant amounts on 100-year-old cards of what's-his-name because his name is spelled wrong.

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[Exhibitman]

Basketball has been an absolutely brutal market for much of the year. Prices are down 50% or more since they peaked in 2020. Yet the cards that have held their gains the best are the older superstars: Russell, Chamberlain, Alcindor, etc. I think the same will be true of other sports' cards.

One thing that hasn't been discussed are the altered and counterfeit modern cards (and holders). I think we already have experienced a wave of modern card alteration that the TPGs of choice (PSA, Beckett) for modern just do not do a good job of detecting, and we are at the start of the great wave of modern card counterfeiting. Some of the reprints of old-tech modern RCs (like 86 Fleer Jordan) are really, really good and are hard to detect unless you know exactly what to look for.

There's also the question of whether any of these buyers are in it for more than a short term gain or bragging rights among people who are dabbling in the hobby and will readily move on to vintage game cartridges or whatever is the next thing to catch their fancy. Does anyone really think that a Luka Doncic card will inspire the same "from my cold, dead hand" collector mentality as a Ruth or Gehrig RC?

The biggest issue I have with modern is that LeBron James, Tom Brady and Mike Trout are unicorns--Wally Joyner, Kevin Maas and Gregg Jefferies are the norm--but the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent. They are also abundant in top grades, as we see with the Jordan RC, and very volatile; just ask the schmucks who paid over $700K for that card and watched prices drop by 50% in a few months. Buying and selling modern seems like a game of speculative hot potato and I believe that whoever is left with the card at the end is gonna get burned. Vintage has definitely taken some major price leaps forward in the last several months but relative to modern seems a better deal. A Foxx RC sells for a fraction of a Doncic RC? W.T.F.

[Snapolit1]

Height of insanity.

https://goldin.co/item/2020-bowman-c...asson-dom5w961

https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/01/23/y...ight-comments/

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

the modern RCs are priced within a matter of weeks as if every prospect is a James or Brady level talent

Yep. I would bet there are quite a few disappointed Zion Williamson (aka Greg Oden 2.0) "investors" out there atm...

[Gorditadogg]

Modern cards are a whole lot more volatile because the players' stories are not written yet. Looking at individual cards the gains are higher and the losses too. I think for modern you need to look at a basket of cards and see how the value in total has moved over time. Otherwise it's hard to get a true picture.

For example, 10 years ago I bought two rookie cards for $75 each, one Amare Stoudemire and one Yao Ming. Amare is now worth $25 while Yao just sold for $900. These are two extremes but overall I would guess that basketball card values have increased about 5 times in the last 10 years. A little bit better than baseball maybe, but not much.

But I am more confident in the basketball card market than baseball. Basketball has a global fanbase, with total fans 2-4 times baseball. The average basketball fan is much younger than baseball, and basketball popularity has been increasing over the last several years as baseball popularity has declined.

I think the whole sports card market could go through a correction as part of an overall economic pullback, but I really don't see basketball on the leading edge of it.

[Delray Vintage]

In the context of today’s stock market tech valuations, NFT’s, crypto, I understand how Donik and the like sell for astronomical valuations. Ruth will always be valuable and most of these modern created rarities will collapse. To the modern collectors these cards are worth it, but having seen numerous bubbles in my 67 years this sure looks like one. Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.

[babraham]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.

+1

[Delray Vintage]

In the context of today’s stock market tech valuations, NFT’s, crypto, I understand how Donic and the like sell for astronomical valuations. Ruth will always be valuable and most of these modern created rarities will collapse. To the modern collectors these cards are worth it, but having seen numerous bubbles in my 67 years this sure looks like one. Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

In the context of today’s stock market tech valuations, NFT’s, crypto, I understand how Donic and the like sell for astronomical valuations. Ruth will always be valuable and most of these modern created rarities will collapse. To the modern collectors these cards are worth it, but having seen numerous bubbles in my 67 years this sure looks like one. Print a rookie card, paste a piece of a uniform and an autograph and suddenly it is a million dollar card? I am sure there are people out there who can justify it as the new way of collecting. To me it spells B-U-B-B-L-E.

Exactly, next year how many new 1/1 Luca Donic auto/GU cards will they turn out? And the year after that, and the year after that, and so on.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by BobC

Exactly, next year how many new 1/1 Luca Donic auto/GU cards will they turn out? And the year after that, and the year after that, and so on.

Depends. Signed by him or Lulu?

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by BobC

Exactly, next year how many new 1/1 Luca Donic auto/GU cards will they turn out? And the year after that, and the year after that, and so on.

They are not making any more Doncic rookie cards, Bob.

Buying cards of active players is definitely speculative and I guess Luka cards could have a "bubble" if his career doesn't pan out. But overall the basketball card market is pretty solid, the game is popular and the fanbase is global and growing.



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[BobC]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

They are not making any more Doncic rookie cards, Bob.

Buying cards of active players is definitely speculative and I guess Luka cards could have a "bubble" if his career doesn't pan out. But overall the basketball card market is pretty solid, the game is popular and the fanbase is global and growing.



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Aaahhh, didn't realize they were talking only about a rookie card. Still makes no sense for that kind of price though.

[Gorditadogg]

NBA GMs are so wishy washy.

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[Goudey77]

It’s a lot sexier to have a hot commodity that is active and can present volatility based on their current greatness. It’s always been the saving grace for modern card collecting. Vintage is like owning real estate. Modern is your crypto

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Goudey77

It’s a lot sexier to have a hot commodity that is active and can present volatility based on their current greatness. It’s always been the saving grace for modern card collecting. Vintage is like owning real estate. Modern is your crypto

I think Cars is a better comparison. The Modern market, wants to show off the latest Bugatti, Lamborghini, etc

The Vintage would rather showoff a Bizzarini or a Ferrari 250 GT California

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Seven

I think Cars is a better comparison. The Modern market, wants to show off the latest Bugatti, Lamborghini, etc

The Vintage would rather showoff a Bizzarini or a Ferrari 250 GT California

I like the example Martin used better. Crypto could be worthless tomorrow just like a modern card. That Lambo and Bugatti are not going to lose 99.9% of their value like 99.9% of modern cards.

Do love me some exotic cars though.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I like the example Martin used better. Crypto could be worthless tomorrow just like a modern card. That Lambo and Bugatti are not going to lose 99.9% of their value like 99.9% of modern cards.

Do love me some exotic cars though.

Very True. And don't get me started on some of the classics! I think if I was a millionaire all I would buy are cards and cars

[ctownboy]

I just watched Doncic play the Pacers and it's no wonder he plays well as many times as the refs let him get away with walking. A LOT of players could be better than they currently are if they got away with what Doncic did tonight.....

David

[Gorditadogg]

Well done. I've given my sons a card for Christmas each year since the 90s. Sometimes it was Kris Bryant but other times it was Mike Trout. They both still have them all and overall their collections have done well. Now I have started with my granddaughters haha.

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[maniac_73]

In the end, we’re all just paying money for cardboard pictures of dudes


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[bnorth]

Originally Posted by maniac_73

In the end, we’re all just paying money for cardboard pictures of dudes


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Actually it is even worse than that. We are older men paying money for pictures of young athletic men in uniforms.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Actually it is even worse than that. We are older men paying money for pictures of young athletic men in uniforms.

Some collectors have different tastes...

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Eric72

Some collectors have different tastes...

Mr Colon is younger and in way better shape than a lot of us.

[drazz5]

Being a 20-something t206 collector, I find I do not have the typical collecting habits of my generation. From my perspective, the "manufactured" scarcity of modern cards completely cheapens the hobby. T206 cards, and all vintage cards for that matter, intrigue me because their value is determined by external limiting factors on a mass produced product that was never intended to be scarce. Age, wear and tear, poor storage practices, and historical significance (as OP mentioned) are what drives the desirability and therefore value.

For the modern card counterpart, a card manufacturer can change the printing settings and slap a x/10 on the card, and it seems like we are just expected to assign the same desirability. One seems organic, the other feels like I am getting duped into a profit taking scheme.

Less than 15 years ago, I was spending my allowance money to buy the latest /20 jersey relic card for $50. Those same cards are worth $3 today. I have a hard time believing cards that have the same basic components 15 years later, with prices that have inflated 10,000%, will ever retain their value as well as vintage...but I guess we will see.

[Rhotchkiss]

[QUOTE=drazz5;2206326]Being a 20-something t206 collector, I find I do not have the typical collecting habits of my generation. From my perspective, the "manufactured" scarcity of modern cards completely cheapens the hobby. T206 cards, and all vintage cards for that matter, intrigue me because their value is determined by external limiting factors on a mass produced product that was never intended to be scarce. Age, wear and tear, poor storage practices, and historical significance (as OP mentioned) are what drives the desirability and therefore value.

For the modern card counterpart, a card manufacturer can change the printing settings and slap a x/10 on the card, and it seems like we are just expected to assign the same desirability. One seems organic, the other feels like I am getting duped into a profit taking scheme.

Less than 15 years ago, I was spending my allowance money to buy the latest /20 jersey relic card for $50. Those same cards are worth $3 today. I have a hard time believing cards that have the same basic components 15 years later, with prices that have inflated 10,000%, will ever retain their value as well as vintage...but I guess we will see.[/QUOTE

Thank you for an on-topic post.

Regarding manufactured rarity, we are Badgers, and a few months ago my 13 year old son got (or I bought him) a 2020 Pannini Red Wave, auto, Jonathan Taylor rookie (I hope I said that right). He is into modern and I love that he is interested in cards and I want to do stuff with him so I indulged, especially a Badger. So the other day I started to contemplate what if we did a “color run” in that card? We looked up what would constitute a color run and it made no sense. There are like 10 different, but that’s just the start. There are many different other colors and versions based on which boxes you are opening. All in all, if you got every available card in that pose (from all the different boxes that could have that pose), it would be like 40 of them. Several are red, but one is wave and one is cracked ice and one is prizim, same with blue and green. And some have signatures and some dont. Some are 1 of 1s or 1 of 5 bc they are gold or black and bc it says it on the back. Some are camouflage and are worth more than signatures bc the cami is rarer (despite no auto). But anyway you slice it, there are many variations of that Jonathan Taylor pose - same pic, just different color, or auto, or limited edition (number on back). The pose is hardly rare. In fact, it’s super common. The rarity is the color, or background, or number.

Admittedly, the t206 Cobb pose is on different cards, as is the case with many of the Horner portraits and/or early cards (e107 has many same poses as t206, w600, etc and e92 has same poses as e101-106 and t216 etc). So I concede that even my beloved prewar uses the same poses over and over. But for some reason I can follow that but get lost looking at 2020 Jonathan Taylor cards.

[drazz5]

[QUOTE=Rhotchkiss;2206401]

Originally Posted by drazz5

Being a 20-something t206 collector, I find I do not have the typical collecting habits of my generation. From my perspective, the "manufactured" scarcity of modern cards completely cheapens the hobby. T206 cards, and all vintage cards for that matter, intrigue me because their value is determined by external limiting factors on a mass produced product that was never intended to be scarce. Age, wear and tear, poor storage practices, and historical significance (as OP mentioned) are what drives the desirability and therefore value.

For the modern card counterpart, a card manufacturer can change the printing settings and slap a x/10 on the card, and it seems like we are just expected to assign the same desirability. One seems organic, the other feels like I am getting duped into a profit taking scheme.

Less than 15 years ago, I was spending my allowance money to buy the latest /20 jersey relic card for $50. Those same cards are worth $3 today. I have a hard time believing cards that have the same basic components 15 years later, with prices that have inflated 10,000%, will ever retain their value as well as vintage...but I guess we will see.[/QUOTE

Thank you for an on-topic post.

Regarding manufactured rarity, we are Badgers, and a few months ago my 13 year old son got (or I bought him) a 2020 Pannini Red Wave, auto, Jonathan Taylor rookie (I hope I said that right). He is into modern and I love that he is interested in cards and I want to do stuff with him so I indulged, especially a Badger. So the other day I started to contemplate what if we did a “color run” in that card? We looked up what would constitute a color run and it made no sense. There are like 10 different, but that’s just the start. There are many different other colors and versions based on which boxes you are opening. All in all, if you got every available card in that pose (from all the different boxes that could have that pose), it would be like 40 of them. Several are red, but one is wave and one is cracked ice and one is prizim, same with blue and green. And some have signatures and some dont. Some are 1 of 1s or 1 of 5 bc they are gold or black and bc it says it on the back. Some are camouflage and are worth more than signatures bc the cami is rarer (despite no auto). But anyway you slice it, there are many variations of that Jonathan Taylor pose - same pic, just different color, or auto, or limited edition (number on back). The pose is hardly rare. In fact, it’s super common. The rarity is the color, or background, or number.

Admittedly, the t206 Cobb pose is on different cards, as is the case with many of the Horner portraits and/or early cards (e107 has many same poses as t206, w600, etc and e92 has same poses as e101-106 and t216 etc). So I concede that even my beloved prewar uses the same poses over and over. But for some reason I can follow that but get lost looking at 2020 Jonathan Taylor cards.

Agreed, what a perfect example. As a side note, I was piddling around the PSA registry today and came across what I would assume is your set. Beautiful collection! Congrats on 100%.

[Snowman]

While Morant is again sidelined due to another injury (knee), the Grizzlies continue to demolish every other team in the league. They just beat the Bucks, with a healthy Giannis, by 25 points the night before last. Tonight, they're up 63 to 37 over the Warriors at halftime.

All this talk about how Morant single-handedly turned them into a top team is hilarious. The soon to be 18-2 Morantless Grizzlies are the best team in the league when Morant isn't on the floor. That 90% win rate drops to 62.5% when he's out there (35-21). Again, don't get me wrong, I LOVE me some Ja Morant, but I'm getting really sick of this narrative about him being the reason for the Grizzlies' success this season. He's an absolutely electric player and so much fun to watch. But he's also a considerable defensive liability. Not as bad defensively as Trae Young (who just so happens to be the worst defensive player in the past 40+ years, literally), but he is certainly a below average defender.