Bursting Bubble

[pherbener]

Originally Posted by Eggoman

I GOTTA agree with Scott!


1987 Topps was EASY to get, but still sold GREAT! 1987 Fleer was HARD to get, but still sold GREAT!

Prices went up every week, every day...

But then, new product seemingly started coming out every week with all of the new companies joining in. It seemed to render Last Week's stuff nearly unsaleable.

I couldn't get rid of Last Week's product fast enough... Manufacturer's met demand so fast. Everyone got theirs and moved on to what was next... Inventory sat on the shelves, but I still bought NEW product.

I was in undergraduate school in 87 and it was near the Topps plant.. I got as many 800 count boxes of Greenwell, Santiago, Joyner, Bonds etc. that I needed. Crazy stuff! Helped put me through school!!

[dio]

Prices are softening. Not much bidder at heritage that ends in 3 days

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by dio

Prices are softening. Not much bidder at heritage that ends in 3 days

The real bidding starts in extended bidding. All those that bought a ticket are just waiting for the show... no need to bid up this early right now...

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

The real bidding starts in extended bidding. All those that bought a ticket are just waiting for the show... no need to bid up this early right now...

Exactly.
I got my placeholder bids in on Day One.
Bidding now is suicide.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

It’s a very basic economic principle... The more people you throw into this, the more people are involved that have no idea what they’re doing.

Could not agree more. A lot of newbies are making it easy for us veterans to make money when the bubble does pop. Sitting on a pile of cash waiting. If it takes a couple of years to pop and flush through to the point of capitulation, that's just fine by me. Stuff I bought up several years ago is selling like hotcakes at a multiple of what I paid for it, so I am selling into it; looking forward to doing it again. Yet we must not forget the most important thing: cards are fun. Speaking of which, this thread needs one:



Ty Says Relax

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by dio

Prices are softening. Not much bidder at heritage that ends in 3 days

To your point, I have just found better places to put my capital (today).... I still have my eye on two lots, but cutting bait on the rest...

[Peter_Spaeth]

If prices are softening, you wouldn't know it by various ebay auctions I saw last night where I felt like, in the words of the Disney song (and very politically incorrect one), I had seen an elephant fly.

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If prices are softening, you wouldn't know it by various ebay auctions I saw last night where I felt like, in the words of the Disney song (and very politically incorrect one), I had seen an elephant fly.

Probstein sold a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson in a PSA 3 on Tuesday night for $4,308. I mean. WTF !!??

Flying elephant right there.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

Probstein sold a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson in a PSA 3 on Tuesday night for $4,308.

Did they, though?

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

Probstein sold a 1950 Bowman Jackie Robinson in a PSA 3 on Tuesday night for $4,308. I mean. WTF !!??

Flying elephant right there.

PWCC has a PSA 4.5 ending tonight that’s at $5500.

[MattyC]

If collectors take a deeper, critical look into the PSA 10 Jordan sale spikes that ignited much of this frenzy or that Rock card that garnered some press, for example, I think eyebrows will be raised at the underlying dynamics. We may ultimately look back and see this whole house of cards, this frenzy, was touched off by actions borne of conflicted interests.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Did they, though?

I saw 10 auctions or more last night that I absolutely could not believe. Funny how many were PWCC. I mean who knows. But 3K plus for a USAIN BOLT??

My favorite was 33K for a not that difficult Messi sticker in a Beckett 9.5.

Stunning.

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

PWCC has a PSA 4.5 ending tonight that’s at $5500.

LMFAO -

Great catch. I have a bunch of early, low placeholder bids on PWCC material that ends tonight just to see if my laptop melts.

[Touch'EmAll]

Someone already pointed out - but the sheer quantity of PSA '54 Banks cards floors me. I thought that was a tough, seldom seen card.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I saw 10 auctions or more last night that I absolutely could not believe. Funny how many were PWCC. I mean who knows. But 3K plus for a USAIN BOLT??

My favorite was 33K for a not that difficult Messi sticker in a Beckett 9.5.

Stunning.

With all due respect, it seems like you’ve been stunned by prices for as long as I’ve been on this board.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by MattyC

If collectors take a deeper, critical look into the PSA 10 Jordan sale spikes that ignited much of this frenzy or that Rock card that garnered some press, for example, I think eyebrows will be raised at the underlying dynamics. We may ultimately look back and see this whole house of cards, this frenzy, was touched off by actions borne of conflicted interests.

It’s hard to imagine an auction house receiving $40mm in investment, with all the legal and financial due diligence that goes into such transactions, if there were a number of fake sales, and therefore, false financials, on the books.

[MattyC]

I'm not at all saying the sales were fake.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

With all due respect, it seems like you’ve been stunned by prices for as long as I’ve been on this board.

Was I wrong to be in 2016?

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Was I wrong to be in 2016?

Lol. Yeah, I think you were right that year.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

Lol. Yeah, I think you were right that year.

On a serious note, it's not that hard to manipulate prices if you have a deep pocket. The sales don't have to be "fake" in the sense of being unpaid. People see rising prices and FOMO then takes over.

[Exhibitman]

I've been talking to a number of middle class longtime collectors. Expect a wave of collections being liquidated; the money is just too good. It would already be under way but for the fact that so many of them have raw collections and would need a TPG to slab the cards for sale.

[troutbum97]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

PWCC has a PSA 4.5 ending tonight that’s at $5500.

That 1950 Bowman J. Robinson PSA 4.5 sold for $5,877.

Did you see the 51 Bowman Mantle / PSA 3? Hammer price: $29,100

A centered PSA 4 Clemente 55T RC hit $6,377.

[dio]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

That 1950 Bowman J. Robinson PSA 4.5 sold for $5,877.

Did you see the 51 Bowman Mantle / PSA 3? Hammer price: $29,100

A centered PSA 4 Clemente 55T RC hit $6,377.

The one psa 7 aaron sold today for 23k, that's a weaker one
There's a few lower grade one went lower than previous few weeks, i think the death affect has worn out now starting to stabilize

the mantle psa 3 not as good as the one sold here a month or two ago , i think the price is about the same.

[moogpowell]

PWCC (Prices Will Consistently Climb)

[pokerplyr80]

An 82T Ripken sold for 20k last night. I thought 10k last week was crazy. A few cards may have slowed down, but others sure are speeding up. There may be a group buying some of these cards as they were in 2016. Possibly just buying cards from each other. But I don't see key Mantle, Ruth, Gehrig, and Cobb cards coming back down. Some of these 80s cards feel like a bubble ready to burst anyday.

[dio]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

An 82T Ripken sold for 20k last night. I thought 10k last week was crazy. A few cards may have slower down, but others sure are speeding up. There may be a group buying some of these cards as they were in 2016. Possibly just buying cards from each other. But I don't see key Mantle, Ruth, Gehrig, and Cobb cards coming back down. Some of these 80s cards feel like a bubble ready to burst anyday.

Yup.some continue to be strong like you said. Some are softening. And I think key hof even soften will have strong support

[dio]

Last night's heritage auction ends pretty well.
51 mantle psa 8 over 600k with BP
Honus t206 2.5 mil authen
52 topps mantle psa 8 only at 880k. although it's not greatly center, but I would expect in a mil range
Ricky psa 10 came down a bit

Everything seems to be holding pretty well

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by dio

Prices are softening. Not much bidder at heritage that ends in 3 days

Ha ha. That's a good one.

A Jackie photo sold last night in Heritage for $360,000, that I'm pretty sure I once took a pass on for $22,000. A card I sold a friend for $9,000 two years ago sold for $75,000. Yep, it's the beginning of the end.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by troutbum97

That 1950 Bowman J. Robinson PSA 4.5 sold for $5,877.

Did you see the 51 Bowman Mantle / PSA 3? Hammer price: $29,100

A centered PSA 4 Clemente 55T RC hit $6,377.

Allegedly.

[dio]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Ha ha. That's a good one.

A Jackie photo sold last night in Heritage for $360,000, that I'm pretty sure I once took a pass on for $22,000. A card I sold a friend for $9,000 two years ago sold for $75,000. Yep, it's the beginning of the end.

Nope, bubble not bursting, tonight's heritage still strong

[Brian Van Horn]

This period of time is simply hilarious.

[Chicosbailbonds]

I would think it will remain strong thru the next round of $1400 stimilus checks, then watch out.

[bbcard1]

I think a lot of the big money that came into it has taken those cards out of circulation for the longterm. There are warehouses full of art no one will ever see. I actually think people began seeing baseball cards like art.

While I think things will level off, I don't think there's going to be a bubble pop unless there is a baseball work stoppage. People don't care what basketball and football players do...the fan base is enthusiastic but their view of history is short term. Baseball fans take every labor issue and new record contract as a personal affront and start whining about how they will never be able to afford to go to a game again. Fact of the matter is that during the 2020 season you could get often get tickets for less than the price of a movie in many markets so long as you were not wanting weekend tickets or to see one of the super popular teams (Yankees, Red Sox, etc.).

Personally I never worry about the business side of baseball. For those who gave up on it in 95 or 96, I'm sorry you felt that way but you missed some amazing players.

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Ha ha. That's a good one.

A Jackie photo sold last night in Heritage for $360,000, that I'm pretty sure I once took a pass on for $22,000. A card I sold a friend for $9,000 two years ago sold for $75,000. Yep, it's the beginning of the end.

Hi steve lol your funny

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

Hi steve lol your funny

I sold a board member a Jackie Leaf SGC 60 for I think $9000.

I need to let it go as the song goes. . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0-j-EJOzRA

[The Nasty Nati]

Originally Posted by Chicosbailbonds

I would think it will remain strong thru the next round of $1400 stimilus checks, then watch out.

I think the stimulus checks are barely making any difference with the way the card market is going.

It mostly has to do with people who don't qualify for stimulus checks having nothing to spend their disposable money on.

[egri]

Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati

I think the stimulus checks are barely making any difference with the way the card market is going.

It mostly has to do with people who don't qualify for stimulus checks having nothing to spend their disposable money on.

I think it depends on the card. The ones that get most of the headlines here, you're right, they aren't being driven by the checks, but a lot of the cards that used to be in the $100 range and are now high hundreds or more, I could see the checks moving the needle on those. There was a thread here the other day about the 1954 Topps Jackie Robinson in PSA 3? 4? going from $75 a year ago to ~$400 today, and it wouldn't surprise me if the checks had something to do with that.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by egri

I think it depends on the card. The ones that get most of the headlines here, you're right, they aren't being driven by the checks, but a lot of the cards that used to be in the $100 range and are now high hundreds or more, I could see the checks moving the needle on those. There was a thread here the other day about the 1954 Topps Jackie Robinson in PSA 3? 4? going from $75 a year ago to ~$400 today, and it wouldn't surprise me if the checks had something to do with that.

I think Checks certainly contribute to the lower end cards going up. I would agree in that regard, also raising the prices of lower grades that are normally cheaper.

[dio]

Originally Posted by Seven

I think Checks certainly contribute to the lower end cards going up. I would agree in that regard, also raising the prices of lower grades that are normally cheaper.

Another round of stimulus and tax refunds are coming too

[Exhibitman]

I think it is mostly a FOMO and downward adjustment effect. If I see prices soar on nm-mt 1954 Robinsons I am now paying attention, and I may decide to get one I can afford just in case. That's exactly what I did with early Mantle cards in 2015.
Paying off nicely now. Meantime the collectors who were serious about owing one before--doing a player run, doing a 1954 set, etc.--are now going to move on it. Can't afford the 8? Buy a nice 6. The sellers, meantime, are thinking "Hey if the PSA 8 is worth $6,000, why shouldn't a PSA 3 sell for $400?" I'd even think that you could argue the three should sell for $600 or more--why not 10% of the 8 price, if that card stabilizes in that price range?

[Johnny630]

Stuff is already coming down. Factored in By money Being Spent on Travel, leisure, and entertainment from the reopening, along with higher taxes and increase in gas price it’s going to stabilized the last 3-4 months was mostly IMO emotional buying.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Stuff is already coming down. Factored in By money Being Spent on Travel, leisure, and entertainment from the reopening, along with higher taxes and increase in gas price it’s going to stabilized the last 3-4 months was mostly IMO emotional buying.

It isn't coming down for anything I want to buy LOL.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It isn't coming down for anything I want to buy LOL.

Mine either, lol. It’s cause we have such good taste in cards !!

A lot will be the modern, it won’t make sense for them to send in modern for 10’s
The price increase that should stop a lot of that over inflated stuff.

[Yoda]

I think one factor that bears consideration is the huge cards that are sitting with the TPGers, many that have been there since the dawn of time. As these cards slowly make their way to the marketplace, particularly the marquee players, the supply/demand equation will begin to change. If a dozen or so Jordon 9's and a couple of 10's hit the market, I don't know what the demand will be if most of the high rollers already have one tucked into their portfolios. Price decline or more bidders who want to join the party? Still, I doubt that there are too many #53 Goudey Ruths 6 or 7's waiting in the pipeline.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If and when Jordan 10s come down I think it much more likely will be because the lunatic maximum prices were manipulated/deliberately pushed rather than that supply will outpace demand.

[mintacular]

Kinda hard to answer this question, but here I go:

(1) We will never go back to a normal of pre-2020 when many cards were underpriced--now that the investor class has sunk their fangs into our hobby

(2) The 10M backlog at PSA if and when it ever gets resolved will significantly whack many overproduced junk era or modern base popular rookies (think 90 OPC Jagr--I currently have 15 at PSA)

(3) Vintage classics/iconic cards (like Gretzky RC, Clemente RC, etc.) might cool/come down a bit but won't ever return to a pre-2020 price level due to their (relative) scarcity

(4) True collectors will buy mostly raw (yes I understand there are exceptions, buying high dollar graded cards is ok) and the investor/flipper class will rely (and overpay) on TPG's since they don't know anything about cards and can't grade for themselves due to their incompetence/ignorance

JMO, Who the hell really knows ? LOL!!! Enjoy the hobby!!

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Kinda hard to answer this question, but here I go:

(1) We will never go back to a normal of pre-2020 when many cards were underpriced--now that the investor class has sunk their fangs into our hobby

(2) The 10M backlog at PSA if and when it ever gets resolved will significantly whack many overproduced junk era or modern base popular rookies (think 90 OPC Jagr--I currently have 15 at PSA)

(3) Vintage classics/iconic cards (like Gretzky RC, Clemente RC, etc.) might cool/come down a bit but won't ever return to a pre-2020 price level due to their (relative) scarcity

(4) True collectors will buy mostly raw (yes I understand there are exceptions, buying high dollar graded cards is ok) and the investor/flipper class will rely (and overpay) on TPG's since they don't know anything about cards and can't grade for themselves due to their incompetence/ignorance

JMO, Who the hell really knows ? LOL!!! Enjoy the hobby!!

I agree, but I am "The Cooler" on this forum. Anytime I post a reply on most any thread, it's the kiss of death...no more replies.

[JollyElm]

For my money, I think the cream of the crop superstars/HOF'ers/etc. will continue to rise (or stay put in their already elevated state) and sorta stay in the ionosphere going forward. But the bubble is going to have to burst regarding the 'lesser' cards which were thrown aboard the quick-moving baseball card market escalator. I mean, seeing the asking prices of some vintage higher grade commons is just crazy.

[Seven]

Be prepared for another rise. With the new set of stimulus checks hitting bank accounts, I won't be surprised if some of the lower end of vintage gets affected more.

$1400 Is one of an early Jackie, Mantle, DiMaggio or Williams in lower grades.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Seven

Be prepared for another rise. With the new set of stimulus checks hitting bank accounts, I won't be surprised if some of the lower end of vintage gets affected more.

$1400 Is one of an early Jackie, Mantle, DiMaggio or Williams in lower grades.

agreed! i've been hoarding high grade brady anderson rookies...I think they're ripe to take off!