How many fake autographs out there?

[homerunhitter]

With tpas slabbing a ton of fake autos and now reading on threads that even topps factory certified autographs are being faked and produced by scammers,in your opinion, what percentage of fake autographs do you think are out there in our hobby? Specifically eBay? I would say 70-80%

[5-Tool Player]

Too many fake autographs out there........I'd agree with you to a point, but I'd say at least 60 %

IMO

5-Tool-Player

[Deertick]

Overall on any given day? I'd say 85-90%. Maybe even higher in the entertainment arena. PSA (and some others) are low, but still out there. To paraphrase Jim Stinson "A glass of water with a drop of urine becomes a glass of urine.", so blind acceptance will bite you in the ass WAY more than diligent research.

[homerunhitter]

85-90%!? Yikes!!! I wonder why even collect autographs at this point. And before someone says it….I know I know!!! go do my own research before buying but guess what? When I’m an old fart and go to resell my “researched” autos, potential buyers are not going to give a rats ass that I did my research! They could care less if me, you or do one one else says an autograph is authentic! (They would rather it slabbed authentic by a TPA like psa or Beckett or a jsa sticker on it!)

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

85-90%!? Yikes!!! I wonder why even collect autographs at this point. And before someone says it….I know I know!!! go do my own research before buying but guess what? When I’m an old fart and go to resell my “researched” autos, potential buyers are not going to give a rats ass that I did my research! They could care less if me, you or do one one else says an autograph is authentic! (They would rather it slabbed authentic by a TPA like psa or Beckett or a jsa sticker on it!)

F*#k the TPAs. Biggest scam ever put over on the collecting public. Their self-proclaimed "expertise" is no better--and often far worse--than that of a long-time collector. And that vaunted CoA?



"This Certificate represents my opinion. Nothing more. If I'm ever found out to be wrong, tough shit. I never promised you anything. You have no recourse. (But I still have your money.)"


If selling your collection to a bunch of know-nothings has got you worried, consign it to an auction house. They'll deal with "authentication."

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

It's a source of personal annoyance whenever I see some news reporter saying "90% of all autographs in today's marketplace are fake" with an air of authority. First of all, they know nothing about the subject matter; they're just doing a news story. Secondly, no matter how hard anyone tries, regardless of how much knowledge they may have, an indisputable percentage will never be properly ascertained. It's impossible.

I can say, however, that when taking every athlete's autograph into consideration, the total figure is nowhere near 90%.

Remember, we are talking about counterfeit pieces, not secretarials, not rubber stamps, not autopens, not clubhouse. While those are not authentic, neither are they forgeries. They also represent such a small percentage of the overall number of signed pieces in existence. There's just no way that forgeries account for the 90% figure that's so effortlessly thrown around by the media.

Michael Jordan? Mantle? Lots.

Bobby Shantz? Virgil Trucks? Not so much.

Will somebody forge a nearly valueless autograph? Certainly. I've seen a three inch stack of fake Bob Feller 8X10's, yet the vast majority of his autographed material is of course free of problems.

[Georj]

I would have to agree that the percentage of fake autographs is no where near 90%. I would put that number well below 50% maybe in the high 30-40%.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Georj

I would have to agree that the percentage of fake autographs is no where near 90%. I would put that number well below 50% maybe in the high 30-40%.

Ones that have passed TPA. Far less than that %.

I cant help but wonder when someone says 90% are fakes if one is :

Sore because they got burned on fake autos
Just a curmudgeon
Trying to hurt the market, and secretly buying autos.

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by BillyCox3

It's a source of personal annoyance whenever I see some news reporter saying "90% of all autographs in today's marketplace are fake" with an air of authority. First of all, they know nothing about the subject matter; they're just doing a news story. Secondly, no matter how hard anyone tries, regardless of how much knowledge they may have, an indisputable percentage will never be properly ascertained. It's impossible.

I can say, however, that when taking every athlete's autograph into consideration, the total figure is nowhere near 90%.

Remember, we are talking about counterfeit pieces, not secretarials, not rubber stamps, not autopens, not clubhouse. While those are not authentic, neither are they forgeries. They also represent such a small percentage of the overall number of signed pieces in existence. There's just no way that forgeries account for the 90% figure that's so effortlessly thrown around by the media.

Michael Jordan? Mantle? Lots.

Bobby Shantz? Virgil Trucks? Not so much.

Will somebody forge a nearly valueless autograph? Certainly. I've seen a three inch stack of fake Bob Feller 8X10's, yet the vast majority of his autographed material is of course free of problems.

I'm not sure I've seen many news reporters throwing around numbers they made up. Usually they are sourced from knowledgeable industry 'experts'. Anyone who says 50% of Ruth autos EVER. cannot be proven, since there is no way to get the total # of autographs of anyone in history. You are basing on a known existing number, which may be a fraction of the true population.
BUT if you say 50% of Ruth autos offered in May 2022, (or last year, or ending today on eBay) are inauthentic, the number may be easily defensible.

I'm not going to get into B.S. COA's or specific TPGs that seemed to be set up for scammers. But if any TPG certifies a photocopy, print, facsimile, stamp, secretarial, clubhouse, or autopen as authentic, that is a mistake that is made a very small percentage of the time overall. (some individual players have a higher incidence).

The OP asked about FAKE (inauthentic) autographs, which is different than FORGED autographs. Any photocopy, print, facsimile, stamp, secretarial, clubhouse, autopen, or non-malicious forgery, ALL get added to the side of FAKE with the actual forgeries when presented as authentic.

My reading of the OPs question was "What is the percentage of inauthentic autographs that are specifically on eBay at any given time?" NOT how many forgeries have been sold in relation to all possible autographs ever signed, or even a subset of fakes TPG slabbed in relation to the pop report.

Hope this makes some sense as I haven't had coffee yet.

[sreader3]

In general I think the fake rate is higher for autos of Hall of Famers and much lower (but not zero) for autos of common players. I will only comment specifically on ‘72 Topps baseball where I have seen tens of thousands of examples. There I would say we’re talking about 10%-15% of autos on eBay listings being fake for HOFers and about 5% for commons. Just a rough estimate. If you stick with TPG your odds improve. There are some sellers who have 100% positive eBay feedback who sell mostly fake autos mixed in with a few authentics—including fake autoed commons! Don’t trust eBay photos of the seller with the player. That is one of the big scams.

[Michael B]

Originally Posted by sreader3

In general I think the fake rate is higher for autos of Hall of Famers and much lower (but not zero) for autos of common players. I will only comment specifically on ‘72 Topps baseball where I have seen tens of thousands of examples. There I would say we’re talking about 10%-15% of autos on eBay listings being fake for HOFers and about 5% for commons. Just a rough estimate. If you stick with TPG your odds improve. There are some sellers who have 100% positive eBay feedback who sell mostly fake autos mixed in with a few authentics—including fake autoed commons! Don’t trust eBay photos of the seller with the player. That is one of the big scams.

I would agree with you on most of this. Anyone who says 90% or some such number is blowing smoke out their rectum. Their eyes and hair are probably brown as they are full of it up to there. One comment was that the reporters always check their facts - really!!! When you are going for big headlines you are going to make outrageous claims not borne out by statistics. If such a claim came from a paid opinionator, they are NOT, NOT, NOT authenticators, they were claiming that as a purported fact to drive business to them.

This broad brush statement is so silly as it is never qualified. What does it mean? It is just baseball? It is all of sports? What is it. Yes, there is a higher incidence of forgery in the well known names. Why? That is where the money is for a forger. Forgeries on lesser known names are usually done by people who know they can do it and get a thrill out of being able to deceive. No one is going to pay more than a dollar or two for a signed 83 Fleer or any similar card. It does not pay.

I am sure there are a lot of old time in person collectors who will tell you stories of players who would sign stacks of cards for a person and think nothing of it. I used to see it for hockey teams. Most players would stand there and sign 10-15 cards for a person, then the same amount for the next. Some basketball players were the same way. I had an acquaintance who saved basketball photos from every possible magazine and newspaper he could find for all college and pro players. When the teams came through town they were more than happy to sign his 4 or 5 photos. Back in 1984 I was the first person to get Michael Jordan in Boston. The night before the game he came in after the team with another player and signed 6 or 7 magazines for me - SI's and High School Sports. The next year a friend gave him literally a shopping bag filled with items - foam mounted magazine photos, magazines, index cards and the such. He took them to his room and gave them back, all signed, the next day.

There are also Olympians, musicians, actors, authors, politicians, scientists, etc. who should be included in any conversation. I can say from personal experience that Olympians are very accommodating. I can show you about 15,000 genuine signatures without trying. I can think of two fakes I have ever seen in that category. Musicians were always very easy and would sign a lot. I have gotten multiples, usually 2 or 3, from even big names at one time - David Bowie, Pete Townsend, Paul Stanley, Elton John, Roger Daltrey, Ted Nugent, etc.

Certainly ebay and online have changed the dynamics, but so much was signed and is still legitimately signed that it far outnumbers the fakes and forgeries.

One poster tried to suggest that fakes and forgeries were different. How possibly is that? A forgery is a fake and a fake is a forgery. Autopen, pre-printed, secretarial and the such are not intended to be malicious representations of the real thing. To assert otherwise is just silly. Those are all done with the express knowledge of the person, thus not a forgery or a fake, just not a genuine signature.

[ATP]

Just for fun I went online and looked up the most 20 recent Mickey Mantle autographs that were listed for sale. 16 of them are good, 4 are not. That's actually a better ratio that I would have thought it would be. I might check again in a day or two and see if it's still similar

[tlake22]

Facts:

1. No way to tell
2. Depends on who it is
3. In the end, unless obtained in person, there's no way to be sure of authenticity

[Deertick]

Michael B, I would agree with you on most of this.

Anyone who says 90% or some such number is blowing smoke out their rectum. Their eyes and hair are probably brown as they are full of it up to there.

I spent the better part of 3 years reporting fakes online to eBay and LiveAuctioneers. Hundreds a day. Worked with local auction houses to remove items and refuse to take similar consignments. Gave the State Attorney all the info I gathered about the sources. Months later they called and said that the value of any single transaction didn't meet a threshold. I stopped to save my sanity* once I realized that it was futile reporting "authentic" reproductions passed as original. They are on eBay right now, along with the Garo, Rocchi, and other Operation Bullshit. *(Sorry, maybe I didn't stop soon enough. ) (Not meant as an appeal to authority, but as a look into my perspective, which may be skewed)

One comment was that the reporters always check their facts - really!!!

No one said that.

When you are going for big headlines you are going to make outrageous claims not borne out by statistics. If such a claim came from a paid opinionator, they are NOT, NOT, NOT authenticators, they were claiming that as a purported fact to drive business to them.

Possibly. But what if the source is the FBI, or a State Attorney General?

This broad brush statement is so silly as it is never qualified. What does it mean? It is just baseball? It is all of sports? What is it.

Agreed. Without definition of the set or subset AND a known quantity of each, it is a guess.

Yes, there is a higher incidence of forgery in the well known names. Why? That is where the money is for a forger. Forgeries on lesser known names are usually done by people who know they can do it and get a thrill out of being able to deceive. No one is going to pay more than a dollar or two for a signed 83 Fleer or any similar card. It does not pay.

660 x $1-$2 =

I am sure there are a lot of old time in person collectors who will tell you stories of players who would sign stacks of cards for a person and think nothing of it. I used to see it for hockey teams. Most players would stand there and sign 10-15 cards for a person, then the same amount for the next. Some basketball players were the same way. I had an acquaintance who saved basketball photos from every possible magazine and newspaper he could find for all college and pro players. When the teams came through town they were more than happy to sign his 4 or 5 photos. Back in 1984 I was the first person to get Michael Jordan in Boston. The night before the game he came in after the team with another player and signed 6 or 7 magazines for me - SI's and High School Sports. The next year a friend gave him literally a shopping bag filled with items - foam mounted magazine photos, magazines, index cards and the such. He took them to his room and gave them back, all signed, the next day.

There are also Olympians, musicians, actors, authors, politicians, scientists, etc. who should be included in any conversation. I can say from personal experience that Olympians are very accommodating. I can show you about 15,000 genuine signatures without trying. I can think of two fakes I have ever seen in that category. Musicians were always very easy and would sign a lot. I have gotten multiples, usually 2 or 3, from even big names at one time - David Bowie, Pete Townsend, Paul Stanley, Elton John, Roger Daltrey, Ted Nugent, etc.

Absolutely. But the question is how many are how many of these items are changing hands. If Whitey Ford signed 100,000 items in his life, is it reasonable to think that on any given week 100 of the exact same item would be for sale?

Certainly ebay and online have changed the dynamics, but so much was signed and is still legitimately signed that it far outnumbers the fakes and forgeries.

Again the difference between what exists vs. the subset of what is offered for sale.

One poster tried to suggest that fakes and forgeries were different. How possibly is that? A forgery is a fake and a fake is a forgery.

Agree somewhat. But it is mostly semantics.

Autopen, pre-printed, secretarial and the such are not intended to be malicious representations of the real thing. To assert otherwise is just silly. Those are all done with the express knowledge of the person, thus not a forgery or a fake, just not a genuine signature.

This is true until those non-malicious representations are then misrepresented as "genuine signatures". And the "the such" you referenced above includes reproductions of genuine signatures onto never signed items, or just straight up digital prints of the original, again represented as genuine. And, as opposed to a hand forged item, they can be made by the hundreds (per hour, if desired).

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

with tpas slabbing a ton of fake autos and now reading on threads that even topps factory certified autographs are being faked and produced by scammers,in your opinion, what percentage of fake autographs do you think are out there in our hobby? Specifically ebay? I would say 70-80%

90-95% easy

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

90-95% easy

I'm sorry, but that is a baseless, unfounded, and quite absurd statement.

Athletes spend an astounding amount of time signing their names every single day. As an "in person" autograph hound for over 35 years, I personally stood outside hotels, stadiums, golf courses, fan events, etc. and literally got thousands of signatures from athletes every year...and there were 15 or 20 guys just like me in my primary collecting venue every single day. When you extrapolate that to every major league city in the country (and I was in one of the smallest markets in Cincy), plus every minor league stadium, plus every PGA event, and on and on I could go, there are more authentically signed items than you could ever imagine in existence.

In addition, MANY former players are on a perpetual autograph signing tour through life. I have personally been in the back room at autograph shows like the National. If you have never seen it, it is literally set up like a large warehouse production with thousands upon thousands of items for the signing guests to sign for wholesale dealers throughout the country before and after their public 2 hour appearance. Many of them sit in that back room being fed a continual assembly line of item after item for the entire day (or multiple days). I'm not exagerating when I say it looks like a mountain of items, stacked on table after table. And this goes on all throughout the year, non-stop. The number of private signings, and players charging fees to sign items through the mail...there is a continual glut of authentically signed material pouring into the marketplace every day.

Then there are the card companies...ever notice the numbering on some of the "limited" autographed cards inserted in packs? Sometimes it's in the thousands. Someone above mentioned some of these showing up having been faked...these are rare, few and far between exceptions. (But these miniscule instances grab headlines and therefore become myth-building fodder for the masses.)

And we have the major companies like Fanatics, Tristar, formerly Steiners and on and on who have these guys signing their arms off to keep the product coming...I'm getting annoyed just having to type this stuff just to dispel the asinine "estimates" I see some people just randomly throwing out there. My God...if Pete Rose hasn't himself signed his name 5 million times (at least!) in his life alone I would be shocked.

Are there fake autographs in the market? Absolutely...plenty of them.
Do some people get taken by fraudsters every day? Yes
Do major TPA's mistakenly authenticate forgeries? Yes, it does happen, but this represents a very small percentage of their work... it's the exception and not the rule.
Are 90 to 95% of all autographs in the marketplace fake? If you believe this to be true, I do believe there are billows of smoke blowing out your rectum.

(Disclaimer - While this reply was typed citing Chuck's quote, it is not intended personally toward him...It is a reaction to all of the ludicrous, unfounded statements and percentages being thrown around in this thread as though they are fact.)

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Kaneen

I'm sorry, but that is a baseless, unfounded, and quite absurd statement.

Athletes spend an astounding amount of time signing their names every single day. As an "in person" autograph hound for over 35 years, I personally stood outside hotels, stadiums, golf courses, fan events, etc. and literally got thousands of signatures from athletes every year...and there were 15 or 20 guys just like me in my primary collecting venue every single day. When you extrapolate that to every major league city in the country (and I was in one of the smallest markets in Cincy), plus every minor league stadium, plus every PGA event, and on and on I could go, there are more authentically signed items than you could ever imagine in existence.

In addition, MANY former players are on a perpetual autograph signing tour through life. I have personally been in the back room at autograph shows like the National. If you have never seen it, it is literally set up like a large warehouse production with thousands upon thousands of items for the signing guests to sign for wholesale dealers throughout the country before and after their public 2 hour appearance. Many of them sit in that back room being fed a continual assembly line of item after item for the entire day (or multiple days). I'm not exagerating when I say it looks like a mountain of items, stacked on table after table. And this goes on all throughout the year, non-stop. The number of private signings, and players charging fees to sign items through the mail...there is a continual glut of authentically signed material pouring into the marketplace every day.

Then there are the card companies...ever notice the numbering on some of the "limited" autographed cards inserted in packs? Sometimes it's in the thousands. Someone above mentioned some of these showing up having been faked...these are rare, few and far between exceptions. (But these miniscule instances grab headlines and therefore become myth-building fodder for the masses.)

And we have the major companies like Fanatics, Tristar, formerly Steiners and on and on who have these guys signing their arms off to keep the product coming...I'm getting annoyed just having to type this stuff just to dispel the asinine "estimates" I see some people just randomly throwing out there. My God...if Pete Rose hasn't himself signed his name 5 million times (at least!) in his life alone I would be shocked.

Are there fake autographs in the market? Absolutely...plenty of them.
Do some people get taken by fraudsters every day? Yes
Do major TPA's mistakenly authenticate forgeries? Yes, it does happen, but this represents a very small percentage of their work... it's the exception and not the rule.
Are 90 to 95% of all autographs in the marketplace fake? If you believe this to be true, I do believe there are billows of smoke blowing out your rectum.

(Disclaimer - While this reply was typed citing Chuck's quote, it is not intended personally toward him...It is a reaction to all of the ludicrous, unfounded statements and percentages being thrown around in this thread as though they are fact.)

search the #1 most searched autograph and report back to me, LOL "Mantle, Mickey", Then Jordan, Michael, Jeter, Derek...Koufax, Sandy. Trout trout pretty little trout. One more splash and come right out. 99% FORGERIES. Try "Autograph cuts" 99.9 % FORGERIES. I'd rather have cold cuts from San Carlos Deli. No chance of fake Nitrates.

Almost as absurd as my statement 3 years ago that baseball cards is a "billion dollar fraud." Members thought I was nuts. Now most with just a sliver of a brain can clearly do the math. It's a multi billion dollar fraud.

[Deertick]

Apparently the "reporter" made up talking to PSA , FBI, and UDA. This was 17 years ago. I'm sure it has gotten better, not worse. Right?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sign-of...ke-autographs/

"Only six percent of all autographed Beatles memorabilia is authentic, according to PSA/DNA Authentication Services, a California-based organization that examines collectibles. Only 24 percent of Marilyn Monroe and Elvis Presley signatures PSA/DNA has examined were genuine, and only 33 percent of more than 10,000 Woods and Michael Jordan autographs they scrutinized were real."

This is a long read, but interesting:

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/a...wFullText=true

[ullmandds]

In my opinion...too many fakes out there to ever invest/spend any serious money on them.

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

search the #1 most searched autograph and report back to me, LOL "Mantle, Mickey", Then Jordan, Michael, Jeter, Derek...Koufax, Sandy. Trout trout pretty little trout. One more splash and come right out. 99% FORGERIES. Try "Autograph cuts" 99.9 % FORGERIES. I'd rather have cold cuts from San Carlos Deli. No chance of fake Nitrates.

So now it's "99% and 99.9% FORGERIES"...I suggest you don't stand near a smoke alarm. Every one of those Last Name, First Name guys you mentioned have tons of forged autographs in the marketplace. They also all signed their arms off for many, many years. There are tons of legitimate authentic signatures available as well (even on eBay). Your percentage figure is absurd, and you are making a case for yourself that you may indeed be nuts...no need to just rely on the members here just thinking you are.

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Almost as absurd as my statement 3 years ago that baseball cards is a "billion dollar fraud." Members thought I was nuts. Now most with just a sliver of a brain can clearly do the math. It's a multi billion dollar fraud.

If you truly believe that that's all it is, then why are you here day after day participating? Are you nuts?

Chuck, I don't disagree with you that there are large numbers of fraudulent components within this hobby/industry...I just also happen to believe (know for a fact) that there are large numbers of legitimate, honest, well-intentioned components in this hobby/industry. I don't assert that you are nuts. (I don't know you and can't make that judgement.) I do assert that the hyperbolic numbers you are spouting are completely nuts. And I'm guessing you already know this.

[sreader3]

I think it is beyond dispute that the higher priced the auto, the more likely it is to be a fake. So, in the case of 72 Topps baseball, if it is a Clemente or Munson, the chances that it is a fake are extremely high — well over 50% (perhaps 90% or more). But those are the exceptions. If we are talking about Fred Scherman or Tom Burgmeier, or even Rollie Fingers (HOF) or Bert Blyleven (HOF), almost all of the autos on eBay are good (and there are a lot of them available). I’ll stick with 5% bad for commons and 10-15% bad for Hall of Famers averaged out—although it may be somewhat higher.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Kaneen

If you truly believe that that's all it is, then why are you here day after day participating? Are you nuts?

.

MULTI BILLIONS!!!

"The GMV, or gross merchandise value, of cards sold on the platform totals over $2 billion so far this year, roughly $1 billion in each quarter. The number represents a 175% increase from the same six month period in 2020. " every sale was a fraud!

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

MULTI BILLIONS!!!

"The GMV, or gross merchandise value, of cards sold on the platform totals over $2 billion so far this year, roughly $1 billion in each quarter. The number represents a 175% increase from the same six month period in 2020. " every sale was a fraud!

LOL, Yes Multi Billions, Autographs and cards Multi Billion dollar frauds, both of them. And yes, I'm nuts but not stoopid

[gonefishin]

I've collected autographs for quite a while. There is, no doubt, a lot of fake autographs. It would be hard to place a percentage of fake vs authentic autographs. I find that if you look beyond an autographed card, and look at items from the 50's and prior, there is a much higher percentage of authentic autographs than fakes. I try to put all the pieces in perspective when I buy an item. If it's a group of items let's say from the 50's, and there is an autographed score card that contains the autograph of Warren Spahn and other autographs from the Braves - and it passes the "sniff" test (a real signature, compares with other known examples you have, etc.) - then it probably is the real deal. I try to take everything in the group into consideration; other items from the period such as cards, letters, pennants, etc. When I do this, and send the item to PSA it is ALMOST 100% authentic.

If someone buys an autographed ball that was made AFTER the player that supposedly signed it was deceased - SHAME ON BOTH THE BUYER AND THE SELLER! The buyer made a very uneducated purchase and the seller committed a crime (if he knew it was fake).

I do think that PSA, JSA, etc. sometimes take the easy way out by stating a particular autograph was "Secretarial". That's kind of like grading a card an 8 and then adding "MC". The autograph is real but it's "Secretarial" and the card is an 8 but it's Miscut. Crazy stuff.

[homerunhitter]

Why even collect autographs at this point?

[gonefishin]

I enjoy collecting them because it is something that has a direct link to the player and the game. Yes, there's a lot fake stuff out there from crooks. Yes, it crazy that players like Mike Schmidt charge a small fortune for their autograph.

The vintage stuff is cool to collect when you collect something, such as a letter, that contains the players thoughts, etc. Also, there are still authentic autographs out there - Warren Spahn for example (debatable but probably the best left handed pitcher to ever play the game; most wins by a lefty, 4th on the all time wins list, etc.) - that are still quite affordable. I didn't really start out collecting autographs, just kind of got into it while collecting cards. Now I really enjoy it. You know the saying "Try it, you might like it".

[homerunhitter]

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

Anyone who makes a claim like this is just blowing hyperbolic smoke to further a narrative. There is no way to know with any amount of accuracy what the percentage number would be. There are tons of real autographs...there are tons of fake autographs. There may be certain highly sought after HOFers who are often the target of forgers (Mantle, DiMaggio, etc.) that perhaps could approach that 90% threshold (who really knows)...but "90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged!" is a ridiculous statement.

[homerunhitter]

hey Kevin,

I always appreciate your thoughts. thats what i thought as well when i read that. perhaps he was meaning 90% of high end HOFers are forged which would make more sense. Ill have to go re read that as maybe I misread it. (even though I thought I read it somewhere on the internet or maybe even on these boards that 80-90% forgery rate was standard for HOFers.) even though i dont think anyone is forging doerr, feller, dawson , fingers or gossage!

with that being said, without taking into account what he said in his book. what percentage of fake HOFers do you guys think is out there realistically? thanks

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

The bottom line: Don't waste time pondering what percentage are fake. That answer will never be known. To throw a number out there just looks foolish. Instead, spend your time learning the subject matter so you can avoid the fakes.

[homerunhitter]

i knew i read it somewhere, i did a google search and this is what pops up on google. below is a quote from the article that I was reading on google.


“The vast majority of Hall Fame autographs are forged,” claims Ron Keurajian, author of the indispensable reference guide, Baseball Hall of Fame Autographs. When it comes to pre-World War II autographs, Keurajian told me that he believes that 90 percent of the Hall of Famers are not real, particularly those of immortals such as Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Lou Gehrig, Honus Wagner, and Cy Young."


what is your interpretation of this paragraph? (maybe i misunderstood what i read) what do you say? thanks

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

I was just reading the book “baseball hall of fame autographs” by Ron Keurajian and did I read correctly that it’s estimated that 90% of all HOF autographs in existence are forged! (Including those with a TPA) yikes!

I would guess the percentage is similar to high end vintage cards being altered included the ones in slabs. So yes a very high percentage.

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I would guess the percentage is similar to high end vintage cards being altered included the ones in slabs. So yes a very high percentage.

Interested to know the basis for that comment. As someone who has collected thousands of MLB autos in person and through the mail I think the idea that the aggregate forged % for MLB autos is above say 10 or 15% is just wrong. If you are talking specific high value players like Ruth or Mantle or Clemente then of course the % is high. But nobody is forging Mick Kelleher or Marc Sullivan or Garth Iorg.*

*I should say almost nobody. There is at least one guy who is happy to forge any common player for a buck. eBay seems fine with that. And the feds have shown no interest yet.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by sreader3

Interested to know the basis for that comment. As someone who has collected thousands of MLB autos in person and through the mail I think the idea that the aggregate forged % for MLB autos is above say 10 or 15% is just wrong. If you are talking specific high value players like Ruth or Mantle or Clemente then of course the % is high. But nobody is forging Mick Kelleher or Marc Sullivan or Garth Iorg.

I have been emailing with former pitcher Brian Hollman off and on for many years. Ever hear of him, probably not but you can go on eBay and find fake autos of his. So yes even people you never heard of that will happily sign anything for free have their autos forged all the time.

I honestly would only trust an auto I personally got directly from the player while watching them sign the item. Just my opinion.

[Kaneen]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

The bottom line: Don't waste time pondering what percentage are fake. That answer will never be known. To throw a number out there just looks foolish. Instead, spend your time learning the subject matter so you can avoid the fakes.

Amen to that...My thoughts exactly.

[sreader3]

Yes I know who Brian Holman is. I stand by my statement that the aggregate forged % is very low, but not zero, for autos of common players.

Forged autos generally follow the money—although scumbags who take photos of themselves with famous players and then forge signatures of those players (as well as common players) and pawn them off on eBay ad infinitum are admittedly out there. I have had trouble getting authorities interested in these cases.

[theshleps]

My son batboyed in the Arizona fall league and also worked in the clubhouse. He was asked by a player to sign all his fan mail for him. This player was not a big star. We also new an NHL player (minor star) whose wife would sign for him. TTM stuff should be compared to IP for sure but I do think most TTM for non stars is fine. As to fakes on ebay there are definitely some sellers who sell 1000's of forgeries and have wonderful feedback. I've mentioned a few in the past as have many others here. I think for the most part the sellers are legit but with ebay selling millions of autographs monthly at least 1000s get through that are forgeries. And obviously a % of fakes still get slabbed by TPA though if it is one of the bigger TPA the % is small but those guys are probably not as good as some of the folks here.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by billycoxdodgers3b

the bottom line: Don't waste time pondering what percentage are fake. That answer will never be known. To throw a number out there just looks foolish. Instead, spend your time learning the subject matter so you can avoid the fakes.

+100

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Why even collect autographs at this point?

Maybe because it's a fun hobby and if you're smart about it, you will minimize the forged examples in your collection. I'm guessing that, by and large, knowledgeable collectors, like many on this forum, set the market for in-demand autographs, including those slabbed by the big boys, not those trying to peddle bad ones. You can bet that any that seem to "fall through the cracks" in major auctions and eBay, etc., and certainly any at shows presented for sale at a big discount, have been judged by that community to be suspect. So if you want to think you're getting a bargain by paying less than the current marketplace, fine, but then don't complain about all the forgeries in the hobby or do get out of it entirely. Do some digging to find out who among the TPAs seem to really know their stuff, and even better do a lot of homework and become an expert yourself like many here have done.

[Republicaninmass]

100% of coaches corner autos are forgeries.


So there's that


I guess I'm not looking in the right place.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

100% of coaches corner autos are forgeries.
So there's that. I guess I'm not looking in the right place.

Roaches Corner would be Exhibit A in any tutorial about smart collecting under rule #1: "If it seems too good to be true, it probably is."

[Klrdds]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Maybe because it's a fun hobby and if you're smart about it, you will minimize the forged examples in your collection. I'm guessing that, by and large, knowledgeable collectors, like many on this forum, set the market for in-demand autographs, including those slabbed by the big boys, not those trying to peddle bad ones. You can bet that any that seem to "fall through the cracks" in major auctions and eBay, etc., and certainly any at shows presented for sale at a big discount, have been judged by that community to be suspect. So if you want to think you're getting a bargain by paying less than the current marketplace, fine, but then don't complain about all the forgeries in the hobby or do get out of it entirely. Do some digging to find out who among the TPAs seem to really know their stuff, and even better do a lot of homework and become an expert yourself like many here have done.

I agree 100%.
Self education is the safest road to take but this won’t happen fast or be easy . Also develop a few knowledgeable collectors as friends to trust and network with but always trust yourself first and foremost . I have found self education better than any TPA for the most part except in rare instances. If you want to rely on TPAs that is ok but seek out the best ones with your own research.

[gonefishin]

Seems like there are still some pretty strong believers out there, one way or the other.

I think we can all agree that no one - no one - knows the number of times anyone has ever signed there name to something. No one - no one - even knows how many times they have signed there own name, much less anyone else. So the percentage will always be unknown.

I have several thousand autographs on various types of media; balls, photos, cards, etc. I only have a few that I obtained in person, such as Randy Jones when I was visiting with him at a Padres game. Randy owned a bar-b-que venue at the stadium (Jack Murphy at that time) and he was there all the time - visiting with people, signing autographs and just representing the Padres. Good man.

Through the years I have submitted several to PSA or JSA for authentication. They have ranged from Walter Johnson on a type 1 photo to Louis Armstrong on a type 1. I would say that maybe 1 in 20 submissions are returned as questionable or "not able to determine - such as a Henry Ford auto". The majority of "club house" versions seems to always be on baseballs.

The general thought out there is that every autograph is either stamped, forged, of secretarial. It is so bad that I wanted to share this photo of an auction lot that I recently won. It was from the estate of Lefty Gomez. It contains an autographed photo, autographed HoF cards, and a letter from Bill Dickey's wife to Lefty Gomez. Look closely at the bottom of the letter, she says "Lefty, the autographs aren't stamped!"

[homerunhitter]

The problem about getting self education on autographs is when you go to sell them unless it has a TPA saying it’s authentic, potential buyers can give a rats ass about the sellers “self education!” Or expertise! For example is I’m looking to buy an autograph on eBay, If it’s unauthenticated, I could give a rats ass if big boy bubba says that his self education says it’s real!

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

The problem about getting self education on autographs is when you go to sell them unless it has a TPA saying it’s authentic, potential buyers can give a rats ass about the sellers “self education!” Or expertise! For example is I’m looking to buy an autograph on eBay, If it’s unauthenticated, I could give a rats ass if big boy bubba says that his self education says it’s real!

Yes, and to me, that's the marketplace pretty much deciding that the major TPAs know what they're doing. That sounds like a big generality, but I can't think of a better example of "money talks, and bulls**t walks."

[homerunhitter]

Totally agree with you! However potential customers don’t care what you, me or the man on the moon says about our “Self education” of autographs is. Abs thats a fact Jack! But I totally get it because as a buyer is much rather go with a PSA or jsa authenticated autograph vs the word on Jim Bob that’s been collecting for 40 years! Because I don’t know Jim Bob! And jim bobs opinion is like buttholes, everyone has one!

[mrmopar]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I have been emailing with former pitcher Brian Hollman off and on for many years. Ever hear of him, probably not but you can go on eBay and find fake autos of his. So yes even people you never heard of that will happily sign anything for free have their autos forged all the time.

I honestly would only trust an auto I personally got directly from the player while watching them sign the item. Just my opinion.

A nobody player could easily become a target of fraudulent autographs simply by avoiding signing. His lack of signature supply then creates the opportunity for someone to assist with team and set builders. Of course, if they never signed much, identifying what the signature should and does look like becomes more difficult.

I collect Dodger autographs and often wonder if the handful of Bob Wilson autographs I see out there are ALL fakes or real, as they all seem to look similar. He is pretty obscure and his autographs don't seem to pop up often.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Wilson the Dodger had beautiful penmanship. Thankfully, the other Bob ("Red") Wilson usually signed with his nickname later on, thereby mostly avoiding the two players with the same name from being mixed up too often.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Totally agree with you! However potential customers don’t care what you, me or the man on the moon says about our “Self education” of autographs is. Abs thats a fact Jack! But I totally get it because as a buyer is much rather go with a PSA or jsa authenticated autograph vs the word on Jim Bob that’s been collecting for 40 years! Because I don’t know Jim Bob! And jim bobs opinion is like buttholes, everyone has one!

Again, true, but if you're going to be spending real money on autographs you at least need to educate yourself on the TPAs. I'm sure Roaches Corner and its ilk all come with some sort of LOA, but they're worthless, whereas the big four or five authenticators offer a reasonable assurance of legitimacy. Your advice basically is to never buy raw, and that's not an unreasonable position to take and in line with today's marketplace. But for those who have made themselves experts in what they collect, like some of the posters here, such restraints needn't apply and they likewise aren't totally dependent on the TPAs.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Couldn't agree more, Hank. I don't see how this hobby could possibly be any fun if I had to have my hand held every time I wanted to add an autograph.