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  #51  
Old 10-03-2021, 03:34 PM
jayshum jayshum is offline
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Assuming Toronto can hold a 10 run lead against the team with the worst record in the AL with 3 innings to go, there will be 8 possible outcomes with 6 of them resulting in some kind of tie-breaker.
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  #52  
Old 10-03-2021, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by nineunder71 View Post
Clearly, all this excitement has clouded some of our brains
No it is because what he says makes no sense. He wants to concede the division to his hated rivals to play the Cards in the WC. He should want to beat the Giants to make them play another game and get the winner in LA. Aren't the Dodgers defending champions with 105 wins going into the last game? He acts like they are lucky to have a winning record.

I guess it doesn't matter. The Padres are tanking to the Giants just like 1971. The Dodgers hate the Giants, but everyone else in the Division hates the Dodgers.
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  #53  
Old 10-03-2021, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Casey2296 View Post
Giants pitcher Logan Webb just hit a two run shot to increase their lead 9-1.
Until today his BA was .096. Watching him bat must be an exciting time.
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  #54  
Old 10-03-2021, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Until today his BA was .096. Watching him bat must be an exciting time.
Webb has scored as many runs today as the entire Boston Red Sox team has in their game...
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  #55  
Old 10-03-2021, 03:58 PM
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Yes, This!


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Attachment 481426

“It was my understanding that there would be no math.”
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  #56  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:16 PM
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And now Mariners and Jays fans become Nationals fans for the next hour...
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  #57  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:21 PM
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And now Mariners and Jays fans become Nationals fans for the next hour...
Unless Seattle can score some runs, it won't matter to them what the Nationals do.
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  #58  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:22 PM
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Unless Seattle can score some runs, it won't matter to them what the Nationals do.
Edit - Yes. Mariners also need to win.

Last edited by BobbyStrawberry; 10-03-2021 at 04:22 PM.
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  #59  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:25 PM
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No it is because what he says makes no sense. He wants to concede the division to his hated rivals to play the Cards in the WC. He should want to beat the Giants to make them play another game and get the winner in LA. Aren't the Dodgers defending champions with 105 wins going into the last game? He acts like they are lucky to have a winning record.

I guess it doesn't matter. The Padres are tanking to the Giants just like 1971. The Dodgers hate the Giants, but everyone else in the Division hates the Dodgers.
It's pretty obvious that I'd want the Dodgers to beat the Giants. But you made my point for me in your second paragraph. I don't think anybody who follows baseball thought that the Padres would give it their all today. It was pretty clear that the Giants were going to win the division no matter what the Dodgers did. So why not save Buehler, who has been on a roll recently, for Wednesday? Scherzer is obviously no slouch, but he has pitched horribly lately and is mediocre in the postseason (7-5).

As for Urias, I'd award the CY to his 20-3/2.96 over any of the other contenders by a mile.
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  #60  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:31 PM
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Webb has scored as many runs today as the entire Boston Red Sox team has in their game...
Check again bro.
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  #61  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:36 PM
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Damn that Devers


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It's pretty obvious that I'd want the Dodgers to beat the Giants. But you made my point for me in your second paragraph. I don't think anybody who follows baseball thought that the Padres would give it their all today. It was pretty clear that the Giants were going to win the division no matter what the Dodgers did. So why not save Buehler, who has been on a roll recently, for Wednesday? Scherzer is obviously no slouch, but he has pitched horribly lately and is mediocre in the postseason (7-5).

As for Urias, I'd award the CY to his 20-3/2.96 over any of the other contenders by a mile.
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  #62  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:37 PM
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NYY@BOS should be fun.
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  #63  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:37 PM
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Sorry, didn’t mean to quote you On that last comment
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  #64  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:39 PM
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Agreed, but not as fun as Cards @ Doodies for us NL folk

Go Arenado!!


QUOTE=BobbyStrawberry;2150548]NYY@BOS should be fun.[/QUOTE]
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  #65  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:42 PM
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Agreed, but not as fun as Cards @ Doodies for us NL folk

Go Arenado!!
That one should be fun too. I am happy for Arenado. (And anyone who gets out of COL, honestly)
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  #66  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:44 PM
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Fear the Wainwright.
Doesn't seem right that a team with 100 wins is out if they lose one game, but such is baseball.
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  #67  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:50 PM
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I agree with your reasoning but I have not lost hope, short series, a few guys get hot and a few opponents get cold, and presto.
I admire your optimism but decades of being a Sox fan tell me otherwise. I would also note that there is way too much math here. I went to law school to avoid maths other that .1 or .25 for billing purposes and have even avoided that for the last twenty four years
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  #68  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:52 PM
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Fear the Wainwright.
Doesn't seem right that a team with 100 wins is out if they lose one game, but such is baseball.
Just win your division and then you don't have that problem. If there was still just one wild card, then the Giants and Dodgers would have had little motivation to play hard down to the wire since winning the division wouldn't get you much more than being the wild card would. Home field advantage would be about it.
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  #69  
Old 10-03-2021, 04:58 PM
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Agreed, but not as fun as Cards @ Doodies for us NL folk

Go Arenado!!


QUOTE=BobbyStrawberry;2150548]NYY@BOS should be fun.
[/QUOTE]

Both wild card match ups should be fun.

Just amazing that a 106 game winning team is in the wild card game.
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  #70  
Old 10-03-2021, 05:09 PM
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Unfortunately, no tie breakers needed.
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  #71  
Old 10-03-2021, 05:11 PM
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For you easterners, it’s kinda like the Pats missing the playoffs with 11 wins, remember that? Shit happens in all sports, go Cards!!

106 wins & watching the playoffs next round from Beverly Hills

Wain will be Right




QUOTE=mrreality68;2150562][/QUOTE]

Both wild card match ups should be fun.

Just amazing that a 106 game winning team is in the wild card game.[/QUOTE]
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  #72  
Old 10-03-2021, 05:25 PM
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Just win your division and then you don't have that problem. If there was still just one wild card, then the Giants and Dodgers would have had little motivation to play hard down to the wire since winning the division wouldn't get you much more than being the wild card would. Home field advantage would be about it.
Right but then one of them wouldn't be facing single elimination.
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  #73  
Old 10-03-2021, 05:34 PM
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If ands and buts were candy and nuts…………

We’d all have a merry Hanukkah

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Right but then one of them wouldn't be facing single elimination.
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  #74  
Old 10-03-2021, 05:51 PM
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Right but then one of them wouldn't be facing single elimination.
True, but I think one of the main reasons they added the second wild card (aside from more tv money) was to reward teams for winning their division and to provide incentive to do so.
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  #75  
Old 10-03-2021, 06:04 PM
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True, but I think one of the main reasons they added the second wild card (aside from more tv money) was to reward teams for winning their division and to provide incentive to do so.
I doubt that, I think it had much more to do with making scenarios like today possible, where more teams remain in contention until the very end.
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  #76  
Old 10-03-2021, 07:23 PM
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I doubt that, I think it had much more to do with making scenarios like today possible, where more teams remain in contention until the very end.
Keeping more teams in contention was part of it as well, but there were definitely seasons when there was just one wild card that teams didn't play for the division at the end so they could rest players or get their pitchers lined up for the playoffs because the only difference between winning the division vs the wild card spot was one home game in a series. Having to play a single elimination game now with two wild card teams makes winning the division much more worthwhile.
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  #77  
Old 10-03-2021, 08:16 PM
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Keeping more teams in contention was part of it as well, but there were definitely seasons when there was just one wild card that teams didn't play for the division at the end so they could rest players or get their pitchers lined up for the playoffs because the only difference between winning the division vs the wild card spot was one home game in a series. Having to play a single elimination game now with two wild card teams makes winning the division much more worthwhile.
One home game in a best of five series is a pretty big deal, no?
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  #78  
Old 10-03-2021, 09:31 PM
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I doubt that, I think it had much more to do with making scenarios like today possible, where more teams remain in contention until the very end.
It definitely was that. With 1 Wild Card 5/17 or 29.4% won the World Series. That meant that a Wild Card team had a better chance to win than a division winner. Since they changed, it has dropped to 2/9 or 22.2%, now division winners are winning at a higher rate because of that one game. I understand these are small samples, but it is all we have. There definitely was lots of complaints about how many Wild Card teams were winning before they added the second team.
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  #79  
Old 10-03-2021, 09:50 PM
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It definitely was that. With 1 Wild Card 5/17 or 29.4% won the World Series. That meant that a Wild Card team had a better chance to win than a division winner. Since they changed, it has dropped to 2/9 or 22.2%, now division winners are winning at a higher rate because of that one game. I understand these are small samples, but it is all we have. There definitely was lots of complaints about how many Wild Card teams were winning before they added the second team.
OK but seems a stretch to me. The only explanation I can come up with is that sometimes the worse of the two wild card teams is winning the one game playoff and is not as likely to win going forward, but it still seems like small sample size.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-03-2021 at 09:52 PM.
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  #80  
Old 10-04-2021, 09:50 PM
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Both wild card match ups should be fun.

Just amazing that a 106 game winning team is in the wild card game.
Yet another reason why people often say "baseball is all luck". The Dodgers were the best team in baseball this season (and by a sizeable margin as well). They have an SRS of 1.6 vs the Giants 1.2, which is a better predictor of playoff success than is total wins or even Pythagorean wins (and they had 109 PWs vs the Giants 101). Yet, here they are in a one-game playoff just for a shot at a series against the inferior Giants (albeit with a slightly better record).

Here's an interesting and relevant excerpt from The Drunkard's Walk that I often reference when discussing statistical probabilities in baseball with my friends...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonard Mlodinow
…if one team is good enough to warrant beating another in 55% of its games, the weaker team will nevertheless win a 7-game series about 4 times out of 10. And if the superior team could beat its opponent, on average, 2 out of 3 times they meet, the inferior team will still win a 7-game series about once every 5 match-ups. There is really no way for a sports league to change this. In the lopsided 2/3-probability case, for example, you’d have to play a series consisting of at minimum the best of 23 games to determine the winner with what is called statistical significance, meaning the weaker team would be crowned champion 5 percent or less of the time. And in the case of one team’s having only a 55-45 edge, the shortest significant “world series” would be the best of 269 games, a tedious endeavor indeed! So sports playoff series can be fun and exciting, but being crowned “world champion” is not a reliable indication that a team is actually the best one. (p. 70-71)

Last edited by Snowman; 10-04-2021 at 09:51 PM.
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  #81  
Old 10-05-2021, 05:16 AM
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Yet another reason why people often say "baseball is all luck". The Dodgers were the best team in baseball this season (and by a sizeable margin as well). They have an SRS of 1.6 vs the Giants 1.2, which is a better predictor of playoff success than is total wins or even Pythagorean wins (and they had 109 PWs vs the Giants 101). Yet, here they are in a one-game playoff just for a shot at a series against the inferior Giants (albeit with a slightly better record).

Here's an interesting and relevant excerpt from The Drunkard's Walk that I often reference when discussing statistical probabilities in baseball with my friends...
You say it, but that doesn't make it true. Baseball is a situational game. Games are decided by performance in clutch situations such as getting a two out hit with runners in scoring position or on the other side getting the third out to get out of the jam. Pythagorean wins are just a bunch of nonsense. All they do is tell how much a team under performed or exceeded expectations in crucial situations. They aren't real.

That is a really ironic quote. The Giants and Dodgers played a 162 game schedule and the Giants won more games. However, you have decided because of " theoretical" wins, those 162 games should be ignored and the Dodgers are the best team. Why even have a playoffs? Just give them the title because you said so.
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  #82  
Old 10-05-2021, 02:50 PM
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Go Yankees Go
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  #83  
Old 10-06-2021, 03:41 AM
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You say it, but that doesn't make it true. Baseball is a situational game. Games are decided by performance in clutch situations such as getting a two out hit with runners in scoring position or on the other side getting the third out to get out of the jam. Pythagorean wins are just a bunch of nonsense. All they do is tell how much a team under performed or exceeded expectations in crucial situations. They aren't real.

That is a really ironic quote. The Giants and Dodgers played a 162 game schedule and the Giants won more games. However, you have decided because of " theoretical" wins, those 162 games should be ignored and the Dodgers are the best team. Why even have a playoffs? Just give them the title because you said so.
The great thing about statistics is that we don't have to guess at who is right or wrong. We can test out different theories and see which ones are more predictive of future success. Pythagorean wins are not "a bunch of nonsense". They are more predictive of future success than regular wins are. It may be a statistic you don't care about, but that doesn't mean it's not useful or informative. I've been building predictive baseball models for years using advanced statistical techniques (I also work in this field). I've beaten the Vegas spread 8 of the last 9 seasons. I am well tuned into what makes one team better than another, and spoiler alert, it's not their record of wins & losses. I assure you, on a neutral field, the Dodgers in a 7-game series would be favored against any team in baseball this season at every sportsbook across the country. But that doesn't mean they will win the World Series. There is a tremendous amount of variance and short-term luck in baseball. Far more than in any other major sport. The worst team in the league can beat the best team on any given night. This almost never happens in football or basketball. It's just the nature of the game. The difference between a game-winning double in baseball can be a bad hop where the ball catches a seam on the bounce, or whether or not the seam on the ball makes contact with the bat, causing the ball to shoot off at a different angle, or the launch angle can be changed by just 1 millimeter difference in the swing plane. A player has little to no control over many of the most important variables that ultimately determine the outcome of a game. Anyhow, I could go off on this topic for hours, but nobody wants to read that. I'm either preaching to the choir or arguing with someone who has no idea what they're talking about. I'm not breaking new ground here though. This stuff isn't exactly a secret.
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  #84  
Old 10-06-2021, 05:21 AM
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I like to sit in the bleachers at Fenway, get a sunburn eat pretzels and watch the game.
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  #85  
Old 10-06-2021, 05:24 AM
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I like to sit in the bleachers at Fenway, get a sunburn eat pretzels and watch the game.
Good Problem to Have and Great Stadium to enjoy it in

Sadly my team will be sunning on the beaches in Florida
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  #86  
Old 10-06-2021, 06:08 AM
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All the post mortems on the Yankees will talk about a lost season and what a mess it was. Yep, team 21 games over .500 and it was a complete
and utter train wreck and heads should roll. The depths of Yankee fan entitlement never ceases to amaze me all these years later.

Some guy is putting his 27 rings leather jacket back in the closet for a long winter. Outraged that somehow one of more teams performed better than the Yankees. Not how it was pre-ordained.
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  #87  
Old 10-06-2021, 06:15 AM
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All the post mortems on the Yankees will talk about a lost season and what a mess it was. Yep, team 21 games over .500 and it was a complete
and utter train wreck and heads should roll. The depths of Yankee fan entitlement never ceases to amaze me all these years later.

Some guy is putting his 27 rings leather jacket back in the closet for a long winter. Outraged that somehow one of more teams performed better than the Yankees. Not how it was pre-ordained.
Hi

I am not sure which Yankees fans are feeling entitled or which are bitching about the season.
I hope you were not implying I. I was just saying to H Murphy that it was a good problem to have and enjoy it and my team will not be since his team beat mine.
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  #88  
Old 10-06-2021, 06:22 AM
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Originally Posted by mrreality68 View Post
Hi

I am not sure which Yankees fans are feeling entitled or which are bitching about the season.
I hope you were not implying I. I was just saying to H Murphy that it was a good problem to have and enjoy it and my team will not be since his team beat mine.
No Jeff. Honestly didn’t see your message.
Just on Twitter this morning reading one hand wringing outraged post after another.
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Old 10-06-2021, 06:55 AM
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No Jeff. Honestly didn’t see your message.
Just on Twitter this morning reading one hand wringing outraged post after another.
Thanks for the clarification Steve.
my misunderstanding (especially since it came right after my post.
Like any fan of a team that lost I am frustrated about last nights game. But
1. I respect and enjoy what they have done this season
2. Respect the fact that they got beat in the wild card game and wished their fans to enjoy their run (I cannot wish the Boston Team a good run since we consider them the arch enemy )
3. Even choose the picture of the card for the game of ruth "NY Card" wearing the Boston uniform as a tie in)
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  #90  
Old 10-06-2021, 07:07 AM
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The Yankees and Red Sox are both very good teams. They played 20 times this year with an 11-9 split. That game could have gone either way.

Baseball is a strange sport in that over the course of a season, the best teams win 3 out of 5, and the worst teams win 2 out of 5.

The unpredictability of any given game is part of its appeal I think.
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Old 10-06-2021, 07:17 AM
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Yankees are GONE. Breaks my heart. NAAAAAAAAAAA
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Old 10-06-2021, 07:59 AM
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If you don't play well enough over the course of 162 games to avoid being caught up in a single game Wild Card game, you've got no one to blame but yourself.

Love the Yankees (as much as they aggravate me at times), but they but they fell short of what was required.
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Old 10-06-2021, 08:43 AM
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Yankees are GONE. Breaks my heart. NAAAAAAAAAAA
For us fans it is a heartbreak. (same for any team that had a chance to make a run)

Especially since our NY Football Teams seasons ended before it started and as a result we have a long fall and winter sports season.
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  #94  
Old 10-06-2021, 09:40 AM
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You say it, but that doesn't make it true. Baseball is a situational game. Games are decided by performance in clutch situations such as getting a two out hit with runners in scoring position or on the other side getting the third out to get out of the jam. Pythagorean wins are just a bunch of nonsense. All they do is tell how much a team under performed or exceeded expectations in crucial situations. They aren't real.

That is a really ironic quote. The Giants and Dodgers played a 162 game schedule and the Giants won more games. However, you have decided because of " theoretical" wins, those 162 games should be ignored and the Dodgers are the best team. Why even have a playoffs? Just give them the title because you said so.
On paper the Dodgers do look like the superior team, but it's hard to argue with the Giants' success. As I recall the Giants teams that won the WS three times in the 2010s weren't overwhelming on paper either.
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Old 10-06-2021, 10:01 AM
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Martinez' injury is of concern. With a not so great staff, the best path to victory is to score a shitload of runs lol.
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Old 10-06-2021, 10:25 AM
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Martinez' injury is of concern. With a not so great staff, the best path to victory is to score a shitload of runs lol.
Doing that against Tampa's pitching will be quite a challenge. But Alex Cora has proven he knows how to find, ahem, ways to win...
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Old 10-06-2021, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by mrreality68 View Post
Thanks for the clarification Steve.
my misunderstanding (especially since it came right after my post.
Like any fan of a team that lost I am frustrated about last nights game. But
1. I respect and enjoy what they have done this season
2. Respect the fact that they got beat in the wild card game and wished their fans to enjoy their run (I cannot wish the Boston Team a good run since we consider them the arch enemy )
3. Even choose the picture of the card for the game of ruth "NY Card" wearing the Boston uniform as a tie in)

Yeah, I thought the Yanks did well to even make the "Wild Card" game. Half way through the season, they didn't look like a team that should even be a part of the playoff picture.

Part of me wishes they would do a 3 game series for that spot, rather then a 1 and done. Makes things kind of anti-climatic, but it is, what it is. More for a team like the Dodgers this year, rather then the Yankees.

I'm an odd sort of Yankee fan I guess, in that I'd probably root for the Red Sox, if they were to get to the World Series. I'd rather the AL East team that beat out the Yankees win, then the NL team I'm more unfamiliar with. Unless maybe the Brewers get in the series. Then I might have to root for them to get their 1st title.
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Old 10-06-2021, 02:26 PM
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Doing that against Tampa's pitching will be quite a challenge. But Alex Cora has proven he knows how to find, ahem, ways to win...
Short series, one can always hope.
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Old 10-06-2021, 04:44 PM
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How 'bout Brewers vs. the Astros

Wait.......who's the NL team and who's the AL team?
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Old 10-06-2021, 05:55 PM
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Yeah, I thought the Yanks did well to even make the "Wild Card" game. Half way through the season, they didn't look like a team that should even be a part of the playoff picture.
I'll be curious to see if they bring Aaron Boone back. He did bring them back from the dead, but he also had them at .500 in July, and although I don't follow them too closely, he seemed like he pulled a few headscratchers during the season.
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