World Series Predictions?

[bk400]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Even when Ohtani is not hitting well (and again, 2 games is a small sample size to say that after his series against the Mets), just having him in the lineup changes how pitchers approach facing the Dodgers because there is always the potential for him to have a big game. You're right that it's still better to be up 2-0 and have Ohtani hurt (although he is playing in game 3) than be 1-1 with Ohtani 100%, but I still think if he had to be out of the lineup due to the injury in game 2, it could change the outlook of the series. The Yankees pitchers wouldn't have the stress of pitching to him which can only help their confidence.

I agree. He's clearly off tonight, but he still did his job -- drew a leadoff walk and scored a run. I suppose if the Yankees determine that he's a big bluff, then the Dodgers will have to sit him. I still can't believe someone can even pretend to play after dislocating his shoulder less than 48 hours ago.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

I agree. He's clearly off tonight, but he still did his job -- drew a leadoff walk and scored a run. I suppose if the Yankees determine that he's a big bluff, then the Dodgers will have to sit him. I still can't believe someone can even pretend to play after dislocating his shoulder less than 48 hours ago.

They pop it back in, shoot you up, and you're good to go lol. Modern science.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

But again, you're assuming with no basis at all that he continues to play badly, or mediocrely. The small sample size of prior games predicts nothing about his next game. The far more accurate predictor is his overall season. By your logic, the Yankees should just bench Judge. He's sucked, so that surely would not be a costly decision, right?

But I'm NOT assuming that. I'm saying they are winning WHILE he's doing that, so whether or not he is playing at all, or playing well or poorly, I don't think the series hinges on him. Therefore in my opinion it would NOT have been a "costly" loss

Let's put it this way. Aren't you assuming he WILL turn it around to say it would be a costly loss?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

But I'm NOT assuming that. I'm saying they are winning WHILE he's doing that, so whether or not he is playing at all, or playing well or poorly, I don't think the series hinges on him. Therefore in my opinion it would NOT have been a "costly" loss

Let's put it this way. Aren't you assuming he WILL turn it around to say it would be a costly loss?

Nope. I am just calculating, ex ante, his expected value for the rest of the series. And again, ex ante, if other guys have been carrying the team, it's reasonable to expect THEY might cool off. So to me, his value is unchanged. Would you have said before the Series that he wasn't that important to the Dodgers chances? If not, then you can't say it after two games.

PS Judge is COLD.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nope. I am just calculating, ex ante, his expected value for the rest of the series. And again, ex ante, if other guys have been carrying the team, it's reasonable to expect THEY might cool off. So to me, his value is unchanged. Would you have said before the Series that he wasn't that important to the Dodgers chances? If not, then you can't say it after two games.

PS Judge is COLD.

But I wasn't being asked before the series started. I was being asked after they won two games without much of a contribution from him.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

But I wasn't being asked before the series started. I was being asked after they won two games without much of a contribution from him.

The portion of the sentence starting "without much" is irrelevant. I don't understand how you do not see that.

[bk400]

If you're a struggling Aaron Judge, do you really want to see Derek F**king Jeter throwing out the first pitch? The clutch Captain with 5 rings? Why would the Yankees do that?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

If you're a struggling Aaron Judge, do you really want to see Derek F**king Jeter throwing out the first pitch? The clutch Captain with 5 rings? Why would the Yankees do that?

Man, since 2020 Judge is hitting about .150 post-season. Career .199 with .740 OPS.

[bk400]

The Yankees had some mojo until Giancarlo got thrown out at home. I had forgotten how slow he can be:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tmGN3oUFsfY?app=desktop

Obviously, he's a monster bat, but man. Talk about having the wrong guy on the basepaths. I mean, he made Teoscar Hernandez look like Ichiro out there in left.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The portion of the sentence starting "without much" is irrelevant. I don't understand how you do not see that.

Because you seem to think I'm saying that he wouldn't possibly contribute going forward, which isn't even remotely my argument, and is actually irrelevant to what I'm saying. He could have gone 5 for 5 with three home runs every game after game two and THAT wouldn't have altered my argument unless they needed all of those runs produced to win.

My point is his contribution may well be irrelevant to the outcome, hence it's not a costly injury. You can't ever win more than one game at a time no matter how many runs a dominant Shohei might have added. If he had gone 5 for 5 last night the result would've been the same. Considering they're now 3 - 0 and he's 1 for 11 maybe strengthens my argument, but it was never about how good or bad Ohtani would or would not play. It was about the Dodgers not needing his contribution. I only used his performance to that point to as evidence that the Dodgers don't appear to need him to win this series.

[Peter_Spaeth]

You seem to be revising your argument, which initially was keyed entirely to Ohtani's performance.

"Ohtani has basically had no impact in the series and precious little in the playoffs."

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You seem to be revising your argument, which initially was keyed entirely to Ohtani's performance.

"Ohtani has basically had no impact in the series and precious little in the playoffs."

Yes I said that, and yet the Dodgers are where they are, so they are not reliant on a good performance by Ohtani to win. I feel like I keep saying the same thing pretty consistently.

[egri]

I saw on one of the other sites that Aaron Judge is hitting .140 this postseason. Lou Gehrig hit .143 in 1939 when he had ALS.

[bk400]

I have a feeling that Judge is due. I think he goes 3 for 5 with two home runs tonight.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Yes I said that, and yet the Dodgers are where they are, so they are not reliant on a good performance by Ohtani to win. I feel like I keep saying the same thing pretty consistently.

It's a straw man. No team is THAT dependent on one player, no team at a high level anyway, that they couldn't win without him. So by that definition, there is nobody who would ever be a costly loss. But that's not how most people would define a costly loss.

[John1941]

Originally Posted by bk400

I have a feeling that Judge is due. I think he goes 3 for 5 with two home runs tonight.

Aaron Judge is my favorite player and so I'd love to believe that, but I can't see it. He's not just not hitting - he's flailing; missing fastballs and expanding the zone piteously on breaking stuff. His batting average this postseason isn't due to bad batted ball luck or something - it's about his 20K in 43 at-bats.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by bk400

I have a feeling that Judge is due. I think he goes 3 for 5 with two home runs tonight.

He might be due. Having a baby later today would explain a few thing.

[ClementeFanOh]

I predict the Dodgers make it a clean sweep.

Aquarian/Scott- I see you've been force fed the PeterSpaeth cocktail:

1) 1 part unwanted advice

2) 3 parts making everything about him AND twisting the topic

3) 1 part false amazement that you could ever doubt his "perfect" logic

Pull the rip cord! Trent King

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

I predict the Dodgers make it a clean sweep.

Aquarian/Scott- I see you've been force fed the PeterSpaeth cocktail:

1) 1 part unwanted advice

2) 3 parts making everything about him AND twisting the topic

3) 1 part false amazement that you could ever doubt his "perfect" logic

Pull the rip cord! Trent King

You're pathetic. Scott and I were just having a friendly discussion about how to assess what the loss of Ohtani would have meant, and he hardly needs your advice. Uh, maybe you can stop trolling and spewing out your hateful ad hominem drivel? I know that would omit most of your posts, but still...

[Beercan collector]

After watching the top of the first I’m predicting nine Yankees pitchers .

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's a straw man. No team is THAT dependent on one player, no team at a high level anyway, that they couldn't win without him. So by that definition, there is nobody who would ever be a costly loss. But that's not how most people would define a costly loss.

Well without Freddie Freeman this series they might have been lost lol.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Well without Freddie Freeman this series they might have been lost lol.

There we can agree lol. So much for whatever injury he had.

[Shoeless Moe]

ankle sprain

DNP Game 6 vs Mets

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

ankle sprain

DNP Game 6 vs Mets

The sprain came in the last game of the regular season and the initial prognosis was out several weeks. Either it wasn't as bad as originally diagnosed or Freeman is a BAAAAAD man.

[bk400]

The Dodgers have so many ways to beat you. It's been a different set of guys each series in the playoffs.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Interesting choice for starting pitcher in a WS game for sure.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Interesting choice for starting pitcher in a WS game for sure.

Yeah that was a pretty weak choice. Dodgers lucky to get out of those 2 innings as they did.

[Snapolit1]

Dodgers acting like they aren't too concerned with winning this game.

[Smarti5051]

The first base umpire sure is trying to extend this series. Two Dodgers out calls in two innings reversed. He would have gotten away with it too if it wasn't for those meddling video replays.

[samosa4u]

LOL! Did you guys see what those two Yankees fans did to Mookie in the 1st inning?

[bk400]

Well, at least I'll have one more baseball game to watch before I have to sit through 9 more weeks of Giants football.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

LOL! Did you guys see what those two Yankees fans did to Mookie in the 1st inning?

Everybody else in the country was saying "Well what do you expect from Yankee fans?" Certainly not decorum.

[D. Bergin]

Couple of dudebro idiots. Claimed they were "Playing D" in their area. If so, they played terrible "D". Don't think I've ever seen a fan grab somebody's glove before. They're lucky they didn't injure him in the process, the way his arm was extended.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by bk400

Well, at least I'll have one more baseball game to watch before I have to sit through 9 more weeks of Giants football.

I'm in the same boat.

On the other hand, I did just finish watching "The Comeback" on Netflix. Be nice if they could replicate what the Red Sox did to them 20 years ago. Huge long shot, I know.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I'm in the same boat.

On the other hand, I did just finish watching "The Comeback" on Netflix. Be nice if they could replicate what the Red Sox did to them 20 years ago. Huge long shot, I know.

Aren't the chances of winning three games in a row one in eight, assuming roughly even odds for each game? Of course this may be complicated by the fact that one loss ends it, but not sure the odds are THAT long.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Aren't the chances of winning three games in a row one in eight, assuming roughly even odds for each game? Of course this may be complicated by the fact that one loss ends it, but not sure the odds are THAT long.

Well, it's 4 games in a row in total (not willing to remove that from the odds just because they got one of those out of the way), and as far as I know, the only team that's ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, is that Red Sox team against the Yankees.

I wish I could be more optimistic. Maybe Judge will break out of his slump....but Betts and Ohtani could also start lighting it up at any time.

As a cynical New York fan, I believe they are just one Gleyber Torres single off the wall, that he inexplicably thought was an upper deck Home Run away (or Clay Holmes in a high leverage situation) from blowing this series.

I'm not normally one to nit-pick stuff like this, but feel like I'm the only one who noticed he was barely out of the batters box last night, when his 3 run opposite field HR, landed just over the wall into the 1st row seats......which BTW, is pretty typical Gleyber behavior.

I mean, I don't care if you stop and stare and throw a giant bat flip at a no-doubter 30 rows up.....but Gleyber man...you ain't Barry Bonds or Aaron Judge. You might have a little bit of pop for a 2nd Baseman, but you haven't hit many "no-doubters" in your career.....especially to the opposite field.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Well, it's 4 games in a row in total (not willing to remove that from the odds just because they got one of those out of the way), and as far as I know, the only team that's ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, is that Red Sox team against the Yankees.

I wish I could be more optimistic. Maybe Judge will break out of his slump....but Betts and Ohtani could also start lighting it up at any time.

As a cynical New York fan, I believe they are just one Gleyber Torres single off the wall, that he inexplicably thought was an upper deck Home Run away (or Clay Holmes in a high leverage situation) from blowing this series.

I'm not normally one to nit-pick stuff like this, but feel like I'm the only one who noticed he was barely out of the batters box last night, when his 3 run opposite field HR, landed just over the wall into the 1st row seats......which BTW, is pretty typical Gleyber behavior.

I mean, I don't care if you stop and stare and throw a giant bat flip at a no-doubter 30 rows up.....but Gleyber man...you ain't Barry Bonds or Aaron Judge. You might have a little bit of pop for a 2nd Baseman, but you haven't hit many "no-doubters" in your career.....especially to the opposite field.

The results of past coin flips do not affect the odds of the next one. As I understand it, we calculate the odds going forwards.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The results of past coin flips do not affect the odds of the next one. As I understand it, we calculate the odds going forwards.

I don't quite see these games as coin flips, especially with 2 of them in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers resting their best relievers during Game 4.


Even if it was the same as flipping a coin, and you ignore the previous "heads" flip, 12.5% odds are still a pretty big long shot to me.

I hope I'm wrong.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I don't quite see these games as coin flips, especially with 2 of them in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers resting their best relievers during Game 4.


Even if it was the same as flipping a coin, and you ignore the previous "heads" flip, 12.5% odds are still a pretty big long shot to me.

I hope I'm wrong.

Sure, but when you said huge long shot, it sounded like you were thinking 1 in 100 or worse.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Sure, but when you said huge long shot, it sounded like you were thinking 1 in 100 or worse.

Well, based on past Playoff History, the actual results have been 1 in 40. Maybe that means the Yankees are due to bring those odds back into a realistic figure.

I hope you're right. Following this team all year, they just don't seem built for it.

[D. Bergin]

Thanks for trying to keep me optimistic BTW!

[1952boyntoncollector]

down 3-1 in best of 7 right now yankees are +550 to win the next 3 on hard rock bet..

dolphins 100-1 to win superbowl right now i think are much better odds.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Yankees have by far their best starting pitcher going tonight. If they can get this one I think we'll all start feeling those 2004 ALCS vibes

[John1941]

Aaron Judge is looking like Aaron Judge again. Very very happy to be proved wrong here.

[bk400]

Collars tightening in LA

[Snapolit1]

Somehow I think Roberts may be wearing "bullpen game in the WS" for a longtime. What a dumbass decision.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Somehow I think Roberts may be wearing "bullpen game in the WS" for a longtime. What a dumbass decision.

Who would you have started instead? They did the same thing against the Mets because they really only have 3 starters right now.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Who would you have started instead? They did the same thing against the Mets because they really only have 3 starters right now.

Any one of the journeymen middle relievers with some real experience would have made more sense. No way to know if it mattered of course, but still.

[TUM301]

Wow, what a friggin inning for the Yanks. OUCH

[jayshum]

The starter (opener) for the Dodgers gave up 1 run in 2 innings. It was the second pitcher who gave up 4 in 1 inning, but he had only given up 1 run in 6 postseason outings so hard to question bringing him in. I still don't know what the Dodgers could have done differently considering their starting pitching situation.