WW3 Please SAY NO!

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

It's time to wave the white flag.

I know Zelensky & the Ukraines want to fight, but Zelensky will save a lot of lives if he throws in the towel.

It's going to be the same outcome whether they fight now or not.

At a certain point in a boxing match the manager has to say does he want his guy to continue to take a beaten or stop it and hope for another day down the road.

If you are eliminated there is no new day down the road.

I had dinner with one of my former professors and advisor last night. He heads the history department at the college I attended and is probably one of the top 5 experts on WWI in the United States. His wife is a fellow at a major European political policy institute which is providing some of the most accurate and precise analysis of the war. His analysis is thus:

Starting at 0% from the moment Russia invaded he gives Ukraine a half percent more chance to win (Russian eventual withdrawal with no occupation) with every 48 hours that passes with the Ukrainian government intact and a supply line from NATO forces to Ukrainian.

They are out manned 11-1 and outgunned 100-1, but.... they are arguably much better trained, have better personal equipment, knowledge of the war zone, and most importantly a desire to fight to defend their homeland and democracy. Kyiv will likely become a battle for every building and in that scenario it normally takes 5 highly trained and motivated attackers for every 1 defender. As the world as astoundingly realized, the Russian main assault force has proven to be poorly trained and supported, lacking such basic needs as adequate comms, fuel, and rations.

You are absolutely right that someone should surrender to save more spilled blood - the Russian invading force. I would never expect my nation to kneel to an autocratic invasion and I sure wouldn’t ever ask someone else to do so either.

Zelensky is damned hero in the face of adversity unmatched, or as my friend put it “The world witnessing another Nation’s George Washington in real time.”

I sincerely hope Ukraine fights until the tide turns and the invading snake decapitates itself.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

I had dinner with one of my former professors and advisor last night. He heads the history department at the college I attended and is probably one of the top 5 experts on WWI in the United States. His wife is a fellow at a major European political policy institute which is providing some of the most accurate and precise analysis of the war. His analysis is thus:

Starting at 0% from the moment Russia invaded he gives Ukraine a half percent more chance to win (Russian eventual withdrawal with no occupation) with every 48 hours that passes with the Ukrainian government intact and a supply line from NATO forces to Ukrainian.

They are out manned 11-1 and outgunned 100-1, but.... they are arguably much better trained, have better personal equipment, knowledge of the war zone, and most importantly a desire to fight to defend their homeland and democracy. Kyiv will likely become a battle for every building and in that scenario it normally takes 5 highly trained and motivated attackers for every 1 defender. As the world as astoundingly realized, the Russian main assault force has proven to be poorly trained and supported, lacking such basic needs as adequate comms, fuel, and rations.

You are absolutely right that someone should surrender to save more spilled blood - the Russian invading force. I would never expect my nation to kneel to an autocratic invasion and I sure wouldn’t ever ask someone else to do so either.

Zelensky is damned hero in the face of adversity unmatched, or as my friend put it “The world witnessing another Nation’s George Washington in real time.”

I sincerely hope Ukraine fights until the tide turns and the invading snake decapitates itself.

Well hopefully he studied WWII as well. Look at Stalingrad. Germans had the better army, but in time the numbers win out. The supply lines will eventually be cut off. Putin who already isn't playing fair, will continue to up that. And he'll gladly give up 5 of his for 1 of theirs.

Stalingrad took 6 months. Obviously not exactly the same situation, but similar enough. This will be over in a much shorter time frame.

Sad, but true.

Edited to add - I also do not want to see all those kids and babies grow up without a dad. I understand and respect and am in awe of Zelensky's passion/patriotism/dedication, but I prefer to see him and everyone left live. Zelensky should negotiate a surrender, maybe they can get a third of the country, Putin takes 2/3. Try to get it back down the road. Putin ain't gonna live forever. It would save a lot of lives.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Well hopefully he studied WWII as well. Look at Stalingrad. Germans had the better army, but in time the numbers win out. The supply lines will eventually be cut off. Putin who already isn't playing fair, will continue to up that. And he'll gladly give up 5 of his for 1 of theirs.

It isn't just a war scenario - military vs opposition. The sanctions are absolutely devastating to Russia's economy, and eventually, to its ability and will to continue this. Time is on the side of the Ukranians.

A better combat analogy I think is our own Civil War. Grant keeping Lee at bay, while Sherman was wrecking the South's economy, ability and will to fight.

Sanctions are doing to Putin what Sherman did to the Confederates.

[egri]

Originally Posted by Mark17

A better combat analogy I think is our own Civil War. Grant keeping Lee at bay, while Sherman was wrecking the South's economy, ability and will to fight.

Sanctions are doing to Putin what Sherman did to the Confederates.

Shameless plug for the Navy, which blockaded the southern coast and strangled their trade.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by egri

Shameless plug for the Navy, which blockaded the southern coast and strangled their trade.

The Shermans appreciate it, though a trip to GA isnt on my radar without a name change

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Mark17

It isn't just a war scenario - military vs opposition. The sanctions are absolutely devastating to Russia's economy, and eventually, to its ability and will to continue this. Time is on the side of the Ukranians.

A better combat analogy I think is our own Civil War. Grant keeping Lee at bay, while Sherman was wrecking the South's economy, ability and will to fight.

Sanctions are doing to Putin what Sherman did to the Confederates.

Yah, but unfortunately Zelensky's future is looking like General Custer.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Yah, but unfortunately Zelensky's future is looking like General Custer.

If the Russians assassinate him, they "accomplish" 2 things:

1. They immortalize him as a martyr and rallying call
2. They put the assassination of Putin on the table

[egri]

The Ruble-USD exchange rate is currently 128-1. For context, it was 80-1 a week ago, and 35-1 before the invasion of Crimea.

[irv]

Serious question. How do we know what we are being told about anything is actually factual, true and unbiased?

Seen pics that were taken years ago and vids that have been used taken from Sony play station games.
My faith in trusting anything the media says to me is at an all time low so I'm curious where this stands with other members commenting here?
What do you actually know to be true?