Will Jeter beat Pete Rose's Record of 4,256 Hits?

[Wymers Auction]

I am a reds fan so it really pains me to say that he has a really good shot at this.

[CardTarget]

He has to have 180 hits a year for the next 6 years to come close.

10% chance at best....

[D. Bergin]

Jeter is really the only guy with any sort of an outside shot. If he doesn't get it, it might be decades before we see somebody else with a chance.

[bigtrain]

Agreed. He would have to play another six very productive years to have a shot. He will be 38 years old next month. I doubt he will play that long. I'd guess he plays another 3 years or so and finishes with about 3800 hits.

[travrosty]

i think he is going to try hard to get it, cement his legacy, plus what a payday that would be for him and steiner ala 3000 hits if he broke the all time hit record. signed limited edition balls would go for 1000 bucks.

[barrysloate]

No. I think he'll pass 3500, but he doesn't have 1100+ hits left in him.

[39special]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

No. I think he'll pass 3500, but he doesn't have 1100+ hits left in him.

I agree!

[talkinbaseball]

He is having an amazing year.
The one thing with Derek is, he will retire when he feels he is not playing at his level.
He won't hang around just for the record.
he's first class.

john guzze

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Wymers Auction

I am a reds fan so it really pains me to say that he has a really good shot at this.

No way.

He's had a great month, but no way.

Doug

[canjond]

So let's start talking legitimate expectations then. I agree with the above that Jeter's chance at Rose (and for that matter, Cobb) is pretty unlikely. But, I do think Jeter has a very good shot of moving into the #3 spot all-time.

The numbers, as they stand today, are as follows:

3. Hank Aaron+ (23) 3771 R
4. Stan Musial+ (22) 3630 L
5. Tris Speaker+ (22) 3514 L
6. Cap Anson+ (27) 3435 R
7. Honus Wagner+ (21) 3420 R
8. Carl Yastrzemski+ (23) 3419 L
9. Paul Molitor+ (21) 3319 R
10. Eddie Collins+ (25) 3315 L
11. Willie Mays+ (22) 3283 R
12. Eddie Murray+ (21) 3255 B
13. Nap Lajoie+ (21) 3242 R
14. Cal Ripken+ (21) 3184 R
15. George Brett+ (21) 3154 L
16. Paul Waner+ (20) 3152 L
17. Derek Jeter (18, 38) 3142 R

That means, as of today, Jeter is 630 hits away from moving into the #3 spot.

Given Jeter's current production (54 hits on the season), let's assume he has another 200 hit season in him, so at the end of 2012, he would stand at 3288. Let's also assume production will fall off in 2013 and 2014, to 175 and 160 hits respectively (ie, as bad as the 2010 season, and worse). That would then put Jeter at 3623, or roughly 150 hits shy of #3. Even if he is a part-time player at that point, I could see Jeter collecting 75 hits over 2 final seasons to get there.

Jeter's only about 65 hits off of Rose's career hits pace, so I don't see why he couldn't catch Rose if he stays healthy and is willing to do what Rose did: Play until age 45, move to first base (or DH), play at a below-league average performance level for his last 4-5 years and possibly play for teams other than the Yankees (whoever is willing or able to carry an aging player playing at a below-league average performance level).

[talkinbaseball]

He has just passed Robin Yount.

[Wymers Auction]

Originally Posted by Karl Mattson

Jeter's only about 65 hits off of Rose's career hits pace, so I don't see why he couldn't catch Rose if he stays healthy and is willing to do what Rose did: Play until age 45, move to first base (or DH), play at a below-league average performance level for his last 4-5 years and possibly play for teams other than the Yankees (whoever is willing or able to carry an aging player playing at a below-league average performance level).

Ouch!! Obviously not a Rose fan!!!

Originally Posted by Wymers Auction

Ouch!! Obviously not a Rose fan!!!

- No, I actually AM a Rose fan; I was just trying to be factual. I know Rose was always a winner and brought a lot of intangibles to every game he played, but he was only a .256 hitter his last 4 years with an amazingly low slugging pct. of .305. If not for his reputation and the hype surrounding his quest, I don't think any team would have started him, especially not at first base (of course, being his own manager his last couple of years didn't hurt).

My favorite Rose memory was seeing him at a Philly show in the 1980s, where he was signing for $10 (or something like that), but on his breaks he was hawking his auto to people outside the signing room for $2-$3 less. Always Charlie Hustle!

I got 2 autos at the full price, btw.

[barrysloate]

I don't think Jeter will get 200 hits this year, despite his torrid start, and I don't think he will be playing at this level too much longer. I say 3500 hits is a good bet, and 3600 is not out of the question. Beyond that is unclear. Does he want to play past 40 with reduced skills? Can he remain injury free between ages 38-40? Probably not.

[talkinbaseball]

I don't see him in the lineup tonight.
Does he have a night off?


john guzze