Production Estimates / Print Run Archive

[JUrsaner]

@West - That is what I'm talking about! Love that post - gives a lot to think about for estimates

Was that claim of 80b+ trading cards supposedly an annual figure?

[nat]

Why not call the companies? They might just tell you.

[West]

Originally Posted by nat

Why not call the companies? They might just tell you.

Very few, if any employees remain from the pre-1995 era. Some undoubtedly have passed away. I've reached out to several folks who were involved with the industry. I was only able to get one person to respond.

This is the most helpful article I've found in which a former employee has gone on the record about information that was not publicly available at the time.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...hn-tassoni-jr/

I'm not aware of any other articles that go behind the scenes of production, besides a Topps Magazine piece from 1991 that was more of a publicity piece. I shared that article in a different thread.

[homerunderby]

Take this info for what its worth but its from some research I did awhile back.

1975 Topps: 380,000 sets (Source: Beckett 3 estimate published 1981)
1979 Topps: 315,000 sets (Source: Beckett 3 estimate published 1981)
1991 Donruss: 5mm sets (Estimate from extrapolating from print run of Elite, average number of cases for the hit)
1992 Donruss: 5mm sets (see above)

[JUrsaner]

Originally Posted by homerunderby

Take this info for what its worth but its from some research I did awhile back.

1975 Topps: 380,000 sets (Source: Beckett 3 estimate published 1981)
1979 Topps: 315,000 sets (Source: Beckett 3 estimate published 1981)
1991 Donruss: 5mm sets (Estimate from extrapolating from print run of Elite, average number of cases for the hit)
1992 Donruss: 5mm sets (see above)

Hadn't seen this comment, but tried to incorporate into ranges. I'd calculated closer to 2m sets for 1992 Donruss extrapolated from the Elite print run - although have read 1992 production was reduced from prior years

The 2 million estimate is essentially equivalent to 1:1.5x case odds for Elite (excl. legend/signature series)
1 case = 20 boxes
1 box = 36 packs
1 pack = 15 cards

1 case = 20 boxes = 720 packs = 10,800 cards
1 Elite = 1.5x case odds = 16,200
10x Player Elite Set /10,000 = 100,000 Elite Cards = ~1.6b cards
792-card set (including Series 2 "bonus cards") = /2,000,000+ per card

[insidethewrapper]

1994 Studio : Total 8,000/20 box cases = 160,000 boxes
6,000 Hobby and 2,000 Retail

35% reduction from 1993 Studio

1993 Studio : Estimated 12,500 /20 box cases = 250,000 boxes

[JUrsaner]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

1994 Studio : Total 8,000/20 box cases = 160,000 boxes
6,000 Hobby and 2,000 Retail

35% reduction from 1993 Studio

1993 Studio : Estimated 12,500 /20 box cases = 250,000 boxes

I love the Silver and Gold stars series. Traded for a silver Juan Gonzalez - was my first ever "serial numbered" card

[homerunderby]

Originally Posted by JUrsaner

Hadn't seen this comment, but tried to incorporate into ranges. I'd calculated closer to 2m sets for 1992 Donruss extrapolated from the Elite print run - although have read 1992 production was reduced from prior years

The 2 million estimate is essentially equivalent to 1:1.5x case odds for Elite (excl. legend/signature series)
1 case = 20 boxes
1 box = 36 packs
1 pack = 15 cards

1 case = 20 boxes = 720 packs = 10,800 cards
1 Elite = 1.5x case odds = 16,200
10x Player Elite Set /10,000 = 100,000 Elite Cards = ~1.6b cards
792-card set (including Series 2 "bonus cards") = /2,000,000+ per card

It all depends on the odds for the Elite, this article claims 1 Elite for every 75 boxes, which I think is closer to the truth. I didn't keep the worksheet for the math but I think this article is what I based it on. I guess you have to figure in the number of factory sets also, which I guestimate at about 100k-200k. https://baseballcardpedia.nfshost.co...sertion_Ratios

The article on 1992 Donruss at Baseballcardpedia notes that it is believed that Elite came 1:55 boxes, which jibes with the lower production runs claimed.

Another thing to think about is were there retail returns and how many? Were a large amount of the returns destroyed? Cases of this stuff was available in the mid-late 90's for $20 in any kind of quantity. We'll never know exactly.

[JUrsaner]

Odds were never stated, but odds of 1:55 boxes would be close to 1:2000 packs. Take almost 3 cases per Elite? I've never pulled one, so just guessing, but that seems higher than observed odds from most people who have done multiple case breaks, etc.

Agree that there are a lot of variables. The factory sets is something I hadn't thought much about. Bigger question for me is how much has been "consumed" by kids / the hobby over the past 25-30 years. For instance, I know that I threw away almost all of my base cards from the late 1980s-1990s after my parents sold their house - and very few of them were in gem mint condition anyway. I'd imagine a huge number of cards have had similar fate - although not enough to make a big enough dent in production figures

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by West

Very few, if any employees remain from the pre-1995 era. Some undoubtedly have passed away. I've reached out to several folks who were involved with the industry. I was only able to get one person to respond.

This is the most helpful article I've found in which a former employee has gone on the record about information that was not publicly available at the time.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...hn-tassoni-jr/

I'm not aware of any other articles that go behind the scenes of production, besides a Topps Magazine piece from 1991 that was more of a publicity piece. I shared that article in a different thread.

I have several friends and a few relatives that worked for Score for years. They all cared about cards as much as most of us care about playing with Barbie dolls.

Even when working there they knew little to nothing about anything but the crappy job they done. Now about the only thing most remember is Score gave them those "damn worthless" cards instead of bonuses for Christmas(holidays).

[seanofjapan]

If I recall correctly, Donruss in its advertising for the 1992 set claimed that it was scaling back production to 1985 levels, so I am pretty sure there is less 1992 Donruss out there than there was for the years immediately preceding it.

[JUrsaner]

That would be interesting if we could find a source for that because I'd actually calculated a bunch of the junk wax years based off 1992 Donruss. I think that print figure of 2m/card is going to be fairly accurate because can back into it from Elite. Odds were never stated but a lot of empirical evidence of around 1:1.5x per case

Would mean even higher numbers for 1989-1991

[insidethewrapper]

Donruss and Leaf cut back stating with the year 1994. I'll post shortly with their releases.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by JUrsaner

That would be interesting if we could find a source for that because I'd actually calculated a bunch of the junk wax years based off 1992 Donruss. I think that print figure of 2m/card is going to be fairly accurate because can back into it from Elite. Odds were never stated but a lot of empirical evidence of around 1:1.5x per case

Would mean even higher numbers for 1989-1991

Yeah, its possible I'm remembering that wrong and getting it mixed up with another set.

This is going to bother me though as I definitely remember reading an ad (probably in one of the major hobby publications) in 1992 claiming that a set that year was being limited to 1985 production levels. Maybe it was Leaf or Fleer, I bought a lot of packs of them that year too.

[West]

Originally Posted by JUrsaner

@West - That is what I'm talking about! Love that post - gives a lot to think about for estimates

Was that claim of 80b+ trading cards supposedly an annual figure?

It was an annual figure. I've seen it reported in several places, here is one link:

https://slate.com/culture/2010/03/th...rd-bubble.html

"Unfortunately for investors, each one of those cards was being printed in astronomical numbers. The card companies were shrewd enough never to disclose how many cards they were actually producing, but even conservative estimates put the number well into the billions. One trade magazine estimated the tally at 81 billion trading cards per year in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, or more than 300 cards for every American annually. "

I'm not sure what trade magazine the original estimate came from. Could we posit that Topps produced as much as 40% of that 81 billion? I know there was a ton of Fleer, Donruss and Score out there, but Topps had been the industry leader for decades and Upper Deck was just getting on its feet. Some kind of market share data (or an annual report, as Steve B mentioned) from that era would get a better estimate.

Since Topps became publicly traded I was able to download annual reports from as far back as 1995. But the junk wax era reports are not available as Topps was privately held at that time and employees and subcontractors all had strict non-disclosure stipulations in their contracts.