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#1
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Adrian Beltre
How likely is he to get 3000 hits and 500 HRs? At this point, I guess I'm just asking how likely do you think he is to get 500 HRs, as it's difficult to hit 75 home runs without getting at least 73 other base hits in the process.
Full disclosure: I have a Beltre card I'm planning to sell, so I hope he gets there, but really I am interested in his place in the history of the game. Is he a first ballot Hall of Famer? Or does he face more of a Blyleven-ish trudge up to eventual 75% support? I have my own formula for ranking players and have him at #72 all-time (right between George Brett and Tom Glavine) if he retires today. |
#2
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I don't think 500 HR is reasonable at his current power levels; it would take him well into his 40s. 3000 hits seems like next season or so. He may end up a Don Sutton in terms of HOF voting.
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#3
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Agree. He'll get to 3000 hits next season if he doesn't get hurt. He needs at least 3 full seasons to get to 500 HR's.
He's 37 now, and taking into account where he came from, he could just as easily be at least a couple years older then is reported. It's not precipitous but his power stats have been slowly declining the last 4 years or so. I think he's a HOF'er, but I'm sure there's tons of people on here who don't think he is. |
#4
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A real good late career shouldn't make up for a largely underwhelming first two-thirds of a career.
100 is Major League average OPS +. Between 1998 and 2009, the first twelve years of his career, he had a 105 OPS +, and he ended below Major League average in six of those twelve seasons. In those twelve seasons, he had one, 2004, in which he received even a single MVP vote. He was never an All Star in those twelve years, and the first seven years, he played in Los Angeles, one of the biggest markets in America. Dodger fans didn't think enough of him to vote him to the Midsummer Classic--not once. Five good, not great, seasons don't make up for eleven disappointing ones. He's played 2,646 games. He's remained healthy--that's why he'll make it to 3,000 hits. While playing that long is an accomplishment, is that worth Hall of Fame induction? His career 162 game averages: .285 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI. .337 OBP/.476/.813. Ask yourself this: has Beltre ever been one of the ten best players in the Majors? If you were to go back over the history of the game as it coincided with Beltre's career, would you put him on your top ten list? I wouldn't. He has a career 115 OPS +. He has four Gold Gloves. In nineteen years, he's led the league in home runs, doubles, and hits one time each. That's it. He's had one season above a 150 OPS +, and only two others over 140. Nothing about Beltre truly impresses me.
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Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps. Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd. Last edited by the 'stache; 07-07-2016 at 09:49 AM. |
#5
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For position players his WAR was in the top 10 eight years. His WAR7 (his best 7 seasons) ranks him 6th all time for 3rd basemen. So yes it is easy to say that he was in the top 10 at points in his career.
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https://www.flickr.com/photos/bn2cardz/albums Last edited by bn2cardz; 07-07-2016 at 11:01 AM. |
#6
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easy hof'er...consistent hitting with elite defense. 3k hits will about seal it, altho he's a hof'er today if you watch any baseball at all. use stats to back up what you're observing. don't just run to b-r as a starting point for everything.
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One post max per thread. Last edited by chaddurbin; 07-07-2016 at 11:03 AM. |
#7
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I guess I see a top ten player differently than most. One great season, followed by several mediocre season, at best, doesn't make for a great player, certainly not one of the ten best players in the game. Consistency over time makes a player great. Anybody can have a career year, and as referenced already, that 2004 season seems suspect, to say the least. He has a 1.017 OPS in '04, and then averages a .759 OPS over the next five seasons, going over .800 only once--barely--in 2007, with an .802.
Then, he goes to Boston, a team notorious for PED use, and boom, he's a .321 hitter with nearly 50 doubles, and 30 home runs, after being a .270 hitter nearly 7,000 plate appearances into his career. Sorry, I just can't vote him in. One great season, and eleven average, or below average, seasons in his first twelve doesn't scream all-time great to me. Quote:
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Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps. Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd. Last edited by the 'stache; 07-07-2016 at 09:46 PM. |
#8
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#9
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in the social media era, guys like beltre david ortiz bartolo colon become imminently more popular due to their personalities and exposure...thus adding to their candidacies (not colon). no one remembers colon was busted for ped, just that he's hitting a home run like homer simpson in a gif, beltre with his weird antics with his teammates, david ortiz for swearing in his speeches and not the mitchell report.
but i remember, and the north remembers...#edgarmartinezin2020 #truekingofdh
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#10
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Nope, I did not know that. Interesting. |
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