Hey Big Spender

As best as we can tell there are a dozen companies which run a total of 35 auctions a year. If one is to believe the prices realized reported from these auctions, they produce around $100 million in sales.

A further assumption is that the unduplicated mailing list of the 12 firms is about 25,000 people.

Let's assume that 50% of the sales are for either non-baseball, post 1960 baseball and misc items not relevant to the advanced collector.

Let's also assume of the relevant baseball items, about 70% are under $2000.

That means 15% of the items sold are at least $2000 and the mean price is $5000. Whilst the $2000+ items represent only 15% of the lots sold, we would guess they represent 33% of the overall revenue.

If this is the case than we are looking at pool of $33,000,000. Based on some extensive research and many hours speaking with dealers and auction houses, we estimate that there are about 500 people who spend at least $10,000 a year (in high value items) 200 who spend $50,000 a year or more and 100 folks who spend $100,000 a year or more. To the best our knowledge there are 10 collectors who spend in excess of a million dollars a year.

Whilst the market for the most treasured items is relatively small it appears that the population of knowledgeable, sophisticated wealthy collectors remains strong despite the precipitous drop in prices for more common items.

What do you think?


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[SethY]

I don't get your point.

[Leon]

Mr. elite type card collector,

Even though your original post reeks of elitism there could be a decent debate or conversation concerning the topic. However, maybe "we" could also include the more moderate budgets from say $50 a month to $500 a month too. Maybe that won't be as newsworthy though? I would only say that it is my guess that most, but certainly not all, people's card budgets change over time. best regards

[glchen]

I think a lot of these buyers may be dealers or flippers who are only looking to sell their winnings from the auction houses...

[barrysloate]

How could you possibly know the breakdown of who spends how much in this hobby? I would guess those are just wild estimates.

[Ejm1]

I don't think there is any person in the hobby more driven by cash than yankee51. Congrats, you've turned collecting into an advanced finance problem, keep it up and watch the bottom fall out because of the soul sucking bean counters.

[vintagecpa]

The numbers appear to be reasonable. My best guess is there aren't that many people that spend over $1 million per year on cards. However, there are a large number of people that aren't rich, but are willing to spend big money on a once-in-a-lifetime purchase if the right card or lot ever becomes available. You can never underestimate this group of people.

[mighty bombjack]

Having followed the majority of the larger auction houses' offerings over the past couple of years for the items I collect, I can say that I've seen a significant amount of the same items pop up more than once. That is to say, there may be people spending 50,000+ a year, but they are selling as well, probably quite often buying and selling in the same auction. Collecting is a hobby, but so is flipping.

Barry

Whilst we understand and respect your knowledge, you have not been active in the ultra high market for many years. With all due respect, we think you underestimate the accuracy of our observations..

1) Sales totals for all the auctions are published.
2) With simple math, one can assess the % of items that fall into each of the categories.
3) By constantly surveying auction houses, advanced wealthy collectors, and with 30 years of private contacts, we have a pretty clear picture of who controls the bucks.

As for the gentleman, who indicated all we care about is money

1) we are advanced collectors, and except one personal emergency, we don't sell

2) The compounded growth of our ultra elite collection is grown more than 15% a year over the past 24 years

3) We would think that only place the bottom fell out was your foot which was clearly stuck in your mouth when you made the aforementioned comment.

Our major point is that a select few collectors, less than 250 ,are the market for the ultra rare, expensive, high grade materials. It is these items that attract publicity and drive traffic to the most important auction. Remember that the average lot in the recent REA auction sold for over$ 5,000. That is would certainly eliminate Leon's group of $50 and $500 a month collectors.

We appreciate your interest and look forward to an aggressive buying season in 2011-2012

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[Cat]

We appreciate your interest and look forward to an aggressive buying season in 2011-2012

Lacking sophistication and uber-wealth, the "buying season" is apparently based on some sort of fiscal year that I am unaware of....HELP!

[barrysloate]

Bruce- it's not difficult to determine the total amount of money spent at any given auction, that information is public. But if auction house XYZ sells $1 million worth of cards in their spring sale, how do you know if 100, 200, 300 or more bidders won lots? And how do you know who spent 100K and who bought one $300 card? I know you can extrapolate some information, but I can't imagine it's all that accurate. It's reasonable speculation at best.

[aljurgela]

I believe that Bruce's approximation may be a pretty good one, or at least as good as one could get at this point.... and I am not sure how we would use this data, unless I was an auction house trying to invite the "right" people to a closed high end auction...

But I would add one point... I think that the purchasers of high end material (and probably all collectors regardless of level) should be pretty volatile in dollars spent because they tend to look for certain items and when they become available, they pounce on them making sure that they have "dry powder" for the day that they become available... at least that is my take. So my hypothesis is that some people may spend $100k one year, $10k the next, then $50k, then $200k... it really is a funtion of what is available.

If you believe my hypothesis and apply it to Bruce's numbers, then there would likely have to be more collectors. I would guess that there are about 5 collectors who spend $1 million or more a year.... but I am far less experienced in this "industry" than Bruce or others.

[Shoeless Moe]

Bruce - when u kick the bucket, where does your collection go?

Not being smart, just curious. I wonder what the big cheese do with their collections when the party is over? Ya know the percent that give to their kids, the percent who have it go straight to an auction house for the miss's to cash in on, etc.

[Ejm1]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Bruce - when u kick the bucket, where does your collection go?

Has to much cash to die.

[SethY]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Bruce - when u kick the bucket, where does your collection go?

Men with that ego and sense of superiority probably think they never will kick the bucket. Despite this, he is just like the rest of us No one cares about his collection now, it has made no imprint on history, and no one will remember him or the things he possessed once his life on this earth is done.

[TUM301]

Dambit, "they said there`d be NO MATH" !

[Ladder7]

They won't kick the bucket. They'll just turn a little pail

[sb1]

I think the number of bidders is much too high at 25,000. I would guess that if you collated all of the bidder lists from these various auction houses the number of different bidders/winners would be much more in the 5,000 range and perhaps as low as 2,500 different people on lots over $1,000.

[HercDriver]

I'm confused...of the 500 people who spend $10K a year, how many of them are Bruce?

Take Care,
Geno

Whilst the insane, rude and stupid comments with regard to our health, since we have been quite ill warrant no response, we will share our plans with you. We are single and have no children.

About $250,000 worth of Negro and Cuban items will go the Negro League Museum in Kansas City. Several other important items will be left to the New York Historical Story and Museum of the City of New York- where we serve as consultants. Both of these museums, Mr. Boston College Loser, have displayed our collections.

Those items that are not donated will be sold by REA Auctions. 25% of the money will be donated to a fund we have established, at New York's most important medical center. We will ensure to include a clause in our will that prohibits the medical center for treating you "death lovers"- albeit Payne Whitney Clinic (electric shock treament ) certainly sounds appropriate for your illness.

As for not being remembered, we helped build two different billion dollar companies. We bought one of the most successful web sites in history for $900,000 which, at its peak grew to $5 billion. We also graduated magna cum laude,from one of the top universities in the country- certainly not a second tier business school like yours.

We should, note, however that the former Boston College basketball coach did take our Ivy League team to the final four.

Finally, we wonder if you would be so kind as to mention where your "world class" collection will go when you croke- we might want some decorative items for our butler's pantry


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[SethY]

See this behavior is why you are still single and have no children

I am quite proud of what I am at this point in my life and some bald flabby old dude like you won't really change my mind. My choice on where to attend college was the right one. I chose it over another top university in Washington University in St. Louis because I knew I could succeed whilst having a life at the same time. Sure, you succeeded, but you have no life, no children. Just you and your cardboard.

You sir still have no mark on history. You will be in no encyclopedia, not even wikipedia (unless you or someone you pay sets it up), and will not be featured by any sort of prominent group/organization to be remembered.

Since I am not a materialistic jackass, I don't care where my collection goes. I collect for fun and to buy things I think are cool, not to prove I am better than everyone else.

[Ejm1]

What is up with the We comments. Is a multiple personality involved. It's hard to believe your single with all that cash, maybe you should add a female to your wantlist.

[Ease]

Originally Posted by Yankeefan51

Finally, we wonder if you would be so kind as to mention where your "world class" collection will go when you croke- we might want some decorative items for our butler's pantry.

LOL, great line. The word "whilst" has been used more in this thread than I've ever seen in my life.

[brickyardkennedy]

It's deja vu, all over again.

This thread is Great. You can really tell who the new people on the board is. I feel special to have found out I am 1/200 (most of which gets resold). That makes me a rarity in this hobby. I might just put myself up for sale. Second thought I think I did that once and ended up having to pay anyways

Bruce you are always great for a good read and laugh.

Seth

Since you managed to get into college, and hope to earn a degree in business, you should get your facts straight before making stupid comments.

Of course, if you choose not to get the facts straight before you speak, you may have a great career as a Mass. Democratic congressmen.

On another note, it appears that it is you who has the ego problem. When and if we die(knew you'd love that) we don't care what happens. In the interim, whilst we are very much alive, we are far and away the happiest, and for that matter, most secure person we know.

As the old 1960's song said, come back when you grow up girl, you're still living in a paper doll world. In the interest of the Board, we should terminate this discussion, but do feel free to write to us directly.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[Kawika]

[Ejm1]

Well folks it's been fun but I must go put my authentic 1927 Yankee stadium mens room toilet paper to use.

[scgaynor]

As somebody who has been behind the scenes at a number of high end auctions I can tell you that Bruce's numbers are high, especially in the current market. A number of the big spenders from a few years ago are no longer active.

There are maybe a handful of people who spend $1 million a year. While they might spend a million dollars a year, they are selling alot as well to finance that buying habit or are dealers who are selling for more money than they are spending. They are not dumping a million a year into the hobby and sitting on the stuff.

The typical big catalog auction mailing list is probably about 5,000. There are probably about 500 active bidders in an auction and 100-200 winners. Those numbers would probably be an average.

That $100 million in sales is actually about $50-$60 million. Many "sales" are not really "sales" at all.

I would revise Bruce's numbers to read

"There are about 200 people who spend at least $10,000 a year (in high value items) 100 who spend $50,000 a year or more and 30-40 folks who spend $100,000 a year or more. To the best our knowledge there are 5 dealers/collectors who spend in excess of a million dollars a year."

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Ejm1

maybe you should add a female to your wantlist.

[Shoeless Moe]

Scott, "I" for one would like to say, "we" thank you.

[SethY]

Originally Posted by scgaynor

As somebody who has been behind the scenes at a number of high end auctions I can tell you that Bruce's numbers are high, especially in the current market. A number of the big spenders from a few years ago are no longer active.

There are maybe a handful of people who spend $1 million a year. While they might spend a million dollars a year, they are selling alot as well to finance that buying habit or are dealers who are selling for more money than they are spending. They are not dumping a million a year into the hobby and sitting on the stuff.

The typical big catalog auction mailing list is probably about 5,000. There are probably about 500 active bidders in an auction and 100-200 winners. Those numbers would probably be an average.

That $100 million in sales is actually about $50-$60 million. Many "sales" are not really "sales" at all.

I would revise Bruce's numbers to read

"There are about 200 people who spend at least $10,000 a year (in high value items) 100 who spend $50,000 a year or more and 30-40 folks who spend $100,000 a year or more. To the best our knowledge there are 5 dealers/collectors who spend in excess of a million dollars a year."

And Brucii just told me to get my facts straight. Thanks for the info man!

Bruce, the CURRENT Boston College basketball coach took your Ivy league team to the ELITE EIGHT.

Get your facts straight

With deep regards for your personal health and well being,

A republican.

We were referencing the former Boston College Coach, Chuck Daly
who later coached the Pistons. He coached Penn after Boston College.

We also disagree with Scott Gaynor- the number of different bidders in the REA Auctions who spend over $50,000 is quite high.


As for the items not sold, that is something that may be true- we were only referencing what the auction houses state. If you look at the top 12 auction houses they average well over 90% on items valued at $2000 or more.

Thanks for your good health wishes, Seth.

Bruce

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Yankeefan51

Whilst we are very much alive, we are far and away the happiest, and for that matter, most secure person we know.

Putting aside that they admit they are a person (singular), can someone who is considing the insecurity of the people he knows be, at the same time, the most secure person he knows? I think this could only be true if the only person he knows was himself, which means he is also the most insecure person he knows.

I wrote a lot more about how much I dislike his posts, but I erased it because what's the point.....?

[mark evans]

I think the answer to Bruce's initial inquiry turns on whether the population of wealthy collectors will increase, decrease or remain constant during the period in which he continues to collect. I don't know the answer. But based upon Scott's statement that current figures show a downward trend, my concern would be a continuation of that trend due to adverse economic conditions and aging baby boomers. Even assuming such a continuing trend, though, I suspect that true rarities would be more likely to retain their value (or perhaps even increase in value) than more common pre-war cards and memorabilia.

[scgaynor]

I agree that Rob has more people spending 50K in an auction than the average auction, however I think that is because he only has one auction a year, and his per lot average is probably higher than everybody else for that reason.

Lets say Rob has 30 people spend over 50K in his auction. Those 30 people probably spend about that much in all other auctions combined over the course of a year.

Mark absolutely hit the nail on the head. The good stuff is always good. Collectors and Investors both want it keeping the price high. It is that way in coins, stamps, cards, etc. Everything else will rise and fall depending on the economy or a couple of collectors entering or leaving the market.

[HRBAKER]

"croak"

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by Yankeefan51

Whilst the insane, rude and stupid comments with regard to our health, since we have been quite ill warrant no response, we will share our plans with you. We are single and have no children.

About $250,000 worth of Negro and Cuban items will go the Negro League Museum in Kansas City. Several other important items will be left to the New York Historical Story and Museum of the City of New York- where we serve as consultants. Both of these museums, Mr. Boston College Loser, have displayed our collections.

Those items that are not donated will be sold by REA Auctions. 25% of the money will be donated to a fund we have established, at New York's most important medical center. We will ensure to include a clause in our will that prohibits the medical center for treating you "death lovers"- albeit Payne Whitney Clinic (electric shock treament ) certainly sounds appropriate for your illness.

As for not being remembered, we helped build two different billion dollar companies. We bought one of the most successful web sites in history for $900,000 which, at its peak grew to $5 billion. We also graduated magna cum laude,from one of the top universities in the country- certainly not a second tier business school like yours.

We should, note, however that the former Boston College basketball coach did take our Ivy League team to the final four.

Finally, we wonder if you would be so kind as to mention where your "world class" collection will go when you croke- we might want some decorative items for our butler's pantry


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

Seriously regretting my "Yes" vote in allowing you to return to the board.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

"croak"

Jeff, in the Ivy Leagues it's spelled "Croke"...get your facts straight man.

[theseeker]

Unless he is a siamese twin, that "we" stuff is leading me to a question...are we going to the national this year?

My being there is based on how he/we answers.

[rdixon1208]

Is this guy who's bad mouthing someone over the university they went to the same guy who threatened to sue Archive?

[forazzurri2axz]

been in a lousy mood today--was about to hit the sack and instaed read all this---I've been laughing for 10 straight minutes for the first time today!!!

bill latzko

[Theoldprofessor]

"Finally, we wonder if you would be so kind as to mention where your "world class" collection will go when you croke- we might want some decorative items for our butler's pantry."

Gee, you'd think that the world's smartest men having graduated froma real school somewhere high up in New England, having founded two businesses, each worth a billion bucks, having swum Mont Everest and climbed to the top of the Pacific Ocean, you'd think that these guys would know how to spell "croak."

[buymycards]

So what is the point of this post? There isn't one. If there is a point - who cares? It is meaningless. No one cares.

Rick

[Ejm1]

We care.

It rather amuses us that so many people get so emotional when we raise the issues of high value collectibles. One does not speak about the world of art
without a long discussion on Impressionist paintings. And in the world of coins there are well over 5000 US coins sold in each year with a value of 100K or more.

The questioning with regard to what we do with our money was not one we raised. We are playing by the rules, Dan Bretta.

We do think that we bring a level of energy to the Board that appears to lack, so we wonder on "what grounds" you could possibly raise an objection.

Finally, whilst baseball memorabilia is a hobby, it is certainly first and foremost (like coins, art, antiques) a business. Otherwise the providers of material would not be called Dealers.

In every hobby there is fierce competition. Whilst grading services and lists of who owns what is limited to comic books, coins, stamps and cards (because of grading), the very fact that there are hundreds of collectible auctions every year is testimony to the American love for competition.

In auctions, like in life, you either win or lose. We are fiercely competitive,
and when we want an item that we can afford, we will spare nothing to determine a way to acquire. We view all of those who collect what we do as
the competition. And we love the battle.

Albeit on occasion we make a typo, we enjoy the Board. In fact, our last three BTW have resulted in 8 purchases.

Hope all of you have a good weekend. Don't lose your sense of humor or your sense of reality. We already have that problem in our Congress
(Democrat and Republican)

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com

[Sterling Sports Auctions]

The rest of "we" is going to be pissed when they find out everything is in Bruce's name and they are not in the will.

[novakjr]

Hi Bruce.

I think Leon pretty much summed it up in post #3. I'm honestly at the exact opposite of the spectrum as you when it comes to collecting. I honestly probably have one of the junkiest collections out there. Sure there's some great stuff, but I've been able to amass a pretty diverse and satisfying collection on a budget due to my lack of care for perfection. However, I do understand and appreciate exactly what you were getting at with your initial post.

To address that, I believe what you were looking to discuss is that the very top of the high end, collector-wise has seemed to remain somewhat steady at about 10 collectors. And that you feel that the market for that high end material will continue to be safe while the lower and middle ends of the market have slowly dwindled, and will probably continue to do so, with collectors dropping like flies due to financial issues.

To that extent, I can agree. However, the collectors in the market for that high end stuff will eventually dwindle and (to put it in simple terms) die(no offense), with no one to step in once one leaves. Eventually the safe 10 that you're referring to, will be 7, 5, 3 and at some point maybe zero. It's not like the last big spending collector left will be king. At some point financially, all that will be left to sell to are the middle-grounders, and I guarantee once you're selling down into a different collecting bracket, money will be lost.

Now the low end of this market is where the most growth and contraction will take place. Honestly, if you were to look at this from an investment standpoint, that volatility should make it potentially the most profitable area of the collecting market. At the same time it could make it the most costly, with some mistakes. All that aside, most of us at the low-end of the spectrum aren't actually any different than you high-enders, despite our obvious differences in financial ability, as our collections seem to be more for the enjoyment of collecting, as opposed to investing. Nobody's here competing with each other to see who has the best collection. Honestly if we were to handi-cap it golf style based on financial ability, I'd sure as hell have to say I'm about as happy as I could be to have my collection where it currently is. I guess that would make me the winner. YAY!!!

Anyways, now that that's out of the way. We're all just here to collect and share knowledge, information and ideas about the hobby. Despite the fact that what you shared here is completely irrelevant to me, and I'll assume most of us here, I really do appreciate getting to read every bit of it, and learning from the big timers. It's like Baseball itself. Do I really need to know everything that I know? F*** no, but I sure as hell enjoy the sh*t out of knowing it. And learning more can often times be every bit as satisfying as buying a new card. That's just my simple view on the hobby.

[barrysloate]

What clouds this issue a bit, as has been cited, is the amount of material that gets recycled, again and again. There are plenty of collectors who after they drop 100K in an auction, consign 75K of duplicates to the next one. So if you say that every year these big auction houses sell tens of millions of dollars worth of material, you shouldn't underestimate how much of it has appeared two or more times in a short period of time. I'm sure there is someone who buys a T206 set only to merge it with the one he already has, then consigns his duplicate set to a future sale. So much of this stuff goes round and round that it's hard to get an accurate gauge of how much collectors really spend.

If I buy a card for 10K and then sell a different one for 10K, that's 20K worth of sales, but I in fact have spent nothing.

[soflphillyfan]

The Bruces - "We put the a$$ in assumption."