The Willie Mays price boom

[GregMitch34]

As I noted here last week, I have returned to collecting after a four-year break (and an unfortunate sell off of most cards BEFORE the recent value surge) to finish another book and two films. So I am looking around with fresh eyes and noticing some amazing things. I'll do a separate thread on the astonishing t206 surge but for now, what about the steady climb (and still going) for all decent Willie Mays cards? Why now and why him? Of course, he was my favorite growing up, and now "greatest living player," but that's been true for quite awhile....

So why now--and will it continue?

And are all '50s-60s greats now about to follow in his wake? Someone mentioned last week that several giants have not surged, such as Frank Robinson. Well, last night at PWCC a Frank Robby 1961 PSA 8 more than doubled its previous high. Will Koufax and Aaron follow etc.? Or maybe there will be just a NM and above frenzy....Anyway, it's clear the HOF '50s and '60s are hot. Maybe it's because to older people, that era--after more and more years have passed--now seems like a century ago, and these cards feel more and more like pre-war and not from our childhood. And certainly to younger, news collectors, they certainly seem ANCIENT.

[cgjackson222]

I think there is a lot of room to go with Willie Mays card values.

Many think he is not only the greatest living player, but the greatest player period. For example, the Athletic (Behind a paywall), has Willie Mays #1 and Babe Ruth #2

Buster Olney (ESPN analyst) has said Willie Mays is the greatest player ever as well.

And yet, you can buy Willie's '51 Bowman rookie for just over half of what Mickey Mantle's costs. This is not a knock on Mickey Mantle, but they were both Centerfields, and Willie Mays was better at basically every facet of the sport, with the exception of maybe clutch hitting in the playoffs.

I think as far as investments in post-war go, Willie Mays is up there with the best going forward.

[Rich Klein]

A while ago, inspired by a local young person who proudly showed me a 51B Mays 5MC which he had purchased for a few thousand under "comps", Dr. Beckett and myself did a 15 minute podcast about Mantle V Mays.

I suspect many of the topics to be discussed in this we touched upon

https://beckettinsights.podbean.com/...th-rich-klein/

Rich

[Frankish]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Many think he is not only the greatest living player, but the greatest player period. For example, the Athletic (Behind a paywall), has Willie Mays #1 and Babe Ruth #2

Buster Olney (ESPN analyst) has said Willie Mays is the greatest player ever as well.

It's interesting. I've always liked Mays better than Mantle and think he was the better all-around player (although I do find some arguments to the contrary have merit). But it's never been a surprise that Mantle was the more popular player and that his cards ended up being worth more.

1. Yankees
2. All-American Aw-Shucks WHITE player
3. World Series Titles 7 to Mays' 1 (see Yankees) and playoff HRs 18 to Mays' 1
4. The 1961 HR race
5. Yankees

No matter how great an athlete Mays was, how superior a defensive player and base stealer, how close (or some would argue superior) a hitter, he just can't over come the 1 ring, 1 playoff HR, note being a Yankee.

And Ruth was in a league of his own. My personal opinion/analysis is that Athletic and Olney are way off. Yankees mystique aside, you have a guy hitting more HRs one season than any other TEAM in baseball. I'm not a slave to WAR but think it really supports Ruth as the GOAT. But that's for another thread....

I agree Mays is probably a good buy relative to the other top players. It's nice to see his cards and those of some other great players really make a good run up in value, and I expect he has some distance het to go. He certainly deserves more credit, whether or not that is ever perfectly reflected in card prices (at least relative to Mantle RC and Ruth cards).

[JollyElm]

I don't want to say it, but at 91 years of age, it needs to be said...

422. Mourning Track Power
Buying up cards of a very old former player, for the sole purpose of selling them at exorbitant prices on the gigantic bubble that will surely come after he passes away.

In the last few years, cards of every all-time great who had suddenly passed away skyrocketed in value. Add to that the sheer legendary status of 'The Say Hey Kid' and you better buy now while the (overpriced) getting is good (not as badly overpriced as it could be).

Again, not happy to be a realist here.

[Exhibitman]

Substitution Effect. The decrease in sales for a product that can be attributed to consumers switching to cheaper alternatives when its price rises.

As collectors are priced out of prewar superstars they are going to turn to postwar stars instead. Just as collectors priced out of higher grade cards will turn to lower grade cards instead.

[jchcollins]

Willie is 91 years old, and is more or less considered the greatest position player of all time. Morbid or not, there is speculation on his cards right now in what is assumed to be a run-up to his death. When Hank Aaron passed last year, I know there were at least subtle whispers of Willie being the only player of that caliber left. That's not exactly wrong.

Some cards, like the '52 Topps Mays - were almost criminally undervalued for years in comparison to even garden variety Mantle cards. That at least is no longer the case. It's also nice however to see even midgrade 60's Willie cards getting their due in the value department.

Frank Robinson - eeeh, yeah. But that guy has been undervalued for the entire history of the retail hobby for more than 40 years now. He could eventually get his due much the way Jackie and Satchel cards eventually exploded - but honestly it would be surprising. There are others like that - where besides a rookie card, things are widely affordable. Stan Musial, Willie McCovey, Bob Gibson, Mike Schmidt, Tom Seaver - take your pick. Many other A, A- and B list HOF'ers still have a lot of room for growth in their card prices in my opinion.

[Volod]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I don't want to say it, but at 91 years of age, it needs to be said...

422. Mourning Track Power
Buying up cards of a very old former player, for the sole purpose of selling them at exorbitant prices on the gigantic bubble that will surely come after he passes away.

In the last few years, cards of every all-time great who had suddenly passed away skyrocketed in value. Add to that the sheer legendary status of 'The Say Hey Kid' and you better buy now while the (overpriced) getting is good (not as badly overpriced as it could be).

Again, not happy to be a realist here.

You may be right, but where is the rationality behind the phenomenon, if any? None of those guys were lowered into the ground with their coffins stuffed with thousands of their cards, so what is driving the "bubble" expectation? There is, of course, the projected scarcity of autographed collectibles, but that aspect of the market is relatively small compared to vintage cards in general. So, is the anticipated skyrocketing in value simply due to Willie's unexpected longevity compared to his contemporaries, with marketers getting anxious that he might even outlive them and cause them to lose out on the bubble expansion?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Volod

You may be right, but where is the rationality behind the phenomenon, if any? None of those guys were lowered into the ground with their coffins stuffed with thousands of their cards, so what is driving the "bubble" expectation? There is, of course, the projected scarcity of autographed collectibles, but that aspect of the market is relatively small compared to vintage cards in general. So, is the anticipated skyrocketing in value simply due to Willie's unexpected longevity compared to his contemporaries, with marketers getting anxious that he might even outlive them and cause them to lose out on the bubble expansion?

I suspect it’s mostly a function of the attention and tributes that come when the end arrives. We humans, and Americans in particular, have a real short attention span coupled with an extreme recency bias. Something that grabs our attention and causes us to focus a bit on a particular person is likely to drive increased interest in that person, at least for a while. While not the end, think about how much Jordan’s pieces spiked in value simply because the attention from the ESPN 30 for 30 special. Similar phenomenon here, with maybe slightly less attention than the special received.

It would be interesting to see how long the phenomenon has lasted in the past, and whether some portion of the price increase sticks long term. Naturally, you would have to filter out the more general market increases (or decreases) to try to isolate just this element.

[Gorditadogg]

It's not just Mays. Aaron, Jackie Robinson, Frank Robinson, Bob Gibson, Minnie Minoso: there were a lot of players that were undervalued that have been taking off compared to the Mick.

Just looking at 63T for example in PSA 8. Mantle is up 100% from May 2018, basically doubled from $2300 to $4600. Mays is +220%, Aaron is +230%, Frank Rob +150%, Gibson +120%. To look at some non HOFers, Rocky Colavito is up 200%, Earl Wilson is up 130%.

Just one year and one grade level, I know, but I think if you expanded your search to other players you would see there is a whole class of players that have been popular over the last few years.



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[GasHouseGang]

Maybe Mantle has just always been overpriced?