That T206 Life: "Does the Huge Price Tag for the T206 Magie Error Make Sense?"

[HobokenJon]

Excellent analysis by Luke Lyon, flagging the huge valuation gap between the Piedmont 150 Magie portrait error card (pop 180) and Magee portrait rare backs. For example, the pop reports show 11 EPDG Magee portraits and just 4 Old Mill Magee portraits.

Does the Huge Price Tag for the T206 Magie Error Make Sense?
http://www.thatt206life.com/2017/04/...or-make-sense/

Excerpt:"The Old Mill above is so rare that it’s almost non-existent, and yet it sold for just 13% of the $15,340 that the PSA 3 Magie pictured at the top of this article went for. We know that there is more to value than the supply side of the equation, but I can’t help but come to the conclusion that the Magie Error is over-valued. As long as collectors continue to covet the Magie Error to the extent they have historically, prices will remain high. With more information available to us via the Pop Reports, it’s possible that prices will adjust over time to be more in line with actual scarcity (or the lack thereof)."

[bn2cardz]

Backs only matter to back subset collectors and master set collectors.

The fronts are wanted by everyone that collects the full set. This is where the Demand in "supply and demand" come in. There are very few Magge player runs, master sets, and old mill collectors in comparison to the number of people trying to complete a full "front" set. This also explains the price of they Doyle error in comparison to a rare front/back combo.

[drcy]

Not ever variation is equal. A misspelling of the player's name on the front of the card is a big error.

As collectors, we all think certain items get too much attention and too little demand. I cataloged a big photo auction and, following the sales (but not participating), I was surprised that some photos went for so much while my personal favorite went for the minimum bid.

Though it is worth pointing out great rarities, as Luke has done. Some items are so rare it hurts their value, because they are so rare few collectors are rare of them. I know a collector who had the only tintype on cloth I had ever seen (I knew they existed, but had never in my years seen one). He had trouble selling it for a decent price, because no one had ever heard of one. I suggested he donate it to a museum.

[T206Collector]

A couple of other things to remember about relying on population reports of grading companies --

1. People will have every single "Magie" in existence graded, often more than once, which causes a perception of abundance.

2. Not everyone will have a Magee portrait EPDG graded, regardless of condition.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

A couple of other things to remember about relying on population reports of grading companies --

1. People will have every single "Magie" in existence graded, often more than once, which causes a perception of abundance.

2. Not everyone will have a Magee portrait EPDG graded, regardless of condition.

That's a big part of it.

There was a stretch where I was looking at pop reports (And yes, they're flawed so can only give a general idea of what's common and uncommon)
What I saw in T206s was that the HOF players were generally twice as common as a similar common. The only reason that makes much sense is that people grade them more often.

There are some really tough cards, even in some of the common backs.

Steve B

[JustinD]

My personal opinion:

I refuse to put credence in pop reports ever and the 52 Mantle in my mind will always crush the scarcity equals value argument as there are no less than 25 for sale any day of the week.

Value is in demand and collectors minds.

[MVSNYC]

Justin, but there's more than 25 people who want a 52 MM.

High supply, I supppse...but even greater demand.

Re: Magie, its one of the hobby's most important error cards...greatest error, in the greatest set = high dollars.

[tennisguy]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Justin, but there's more than 25 people who want a 52 MM.

High supply, I supppse...but even greater demand.

Re: Magie, its one of the hobby's most important error cards...greatest error, in the greatest set = high dollars.

Absolutely agree regarding the Magie.

[Jeffrompa]

Originally Posted by tennisguy

Absolutely agree regarding the Magie.

+1

Traditionally it's a highly sought after item .

[HobokenJon]

Luke wrote a fact-driven, contrarian article that bucked conventional wisdom and was surgical in its analysis. The rebuttals I've seen here so far espouse conventional wisdom and not much else.

Tell me something I don't know -- like where one can find another Magee portrait with an Old Mill back. There's always a Magie error card for sale.

[swarmee]

The conventional wisdom in this case is correct. The Venn diagram of Master Set T206 collectors or Magee back run T206 or even graded T206 collectors is a much smaller circle inside the giant circle of T206 collectors overall.
When people talk about the complete set of 524, "Magie" and "Magee" portraits are both on their list. Magee/OM is not on their lists. Magee Portrait is on their list. The backs are mostly substitutable.
A more interesting look, IMO, would be strictly comparing grades of 50/4 graded cards and above. These are the types of cards that people would send in for commons for set registry or resale purposes. Rarities and HOFs would be sent in that just grade AUTH for confirmation that they're real. "Common" players would more rarely be graded at the collector level, since many of those collectors prefer to keep them raw and store in binders.

[iwantitiwinit]

I do subscribe to the thought that there is or will be some increased value assigned to rarer semi-common backs in the future. I believe Ted Z. addressed this rarity in one of his recent posts discussing the relative rarity of several Old Mill poses, known populations of the Old Mills in many cases is very very low. Additionally, the population of these cards could even be lower as the cards could have been submitted on more than one occasion though that could be offset by the fact that backs weren't specified in the earlier population reports. In any case, I think it's interesting to look at those reports and try to accumulate those rarer semi-common backs that have few specimens known, ie Chesbro Sovereign only 1 listed between both PSA and SGC. Would think these type of cards will increase in value especially in a case like Chesbro where both population is low and he is a hall of fame player.

[T206Collector]

++Tell me something I don't know -- like where one can find another Magee portrait with an Old Mill back.++

Here's what happens. I have lots of Old Mills in my collection. No idea who the fronts are. I may be sitting on a gold mine I guess.

A "Generic Collector" finds Magee card in his collection. Looks up value. Sees he has he common Magee version. Puts it back in the shoe box. Did it have an Old Mill back? Who knows. Most people don't care very much and so they never find their way to market.

A lot of this kind of scarcity to me is based on indifference / ignorance.

Piedmont Factory 42 is the best example.

[steve B]

That's a pretty good look at things. Yes there's a lot of indifference but enough cards have been graded and enough people have studied the cards they've handled to get a rough idea of what's actually common and what's not so common.

I can say that for years I tried to get one of each back without bothering with factories. I probably would have bought one of the lighter piedmont 42s if I saw one because it would have been "different". I still don't have one after almost 40 years. (I count from Sept 1977 when I moved to a town with a card shop) I'm convinced it's the last back I don't have that I could actually afford, the rest are just too much.

So figure that one as confirmed as being pretty difficult.

Steve B

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by HobokenJon

Luke wrote a fact-driven, contrarian article that bucked conventional wisdom and was surgical in its analysis. The rebuttals I've seen here so far espouse conventional wisdom and not much else.

I guess you consider me conventional in my wisdom. I want a Magie error and don't care about getting a Magee Old Mill.

[tennisguy]

The Magie error is an awesome legendary card! I am with you Eric!

Originally Posted by egbeachley

I guess you consider me conventional in my wisdom. I want a Magie error and don't care about getting a Magee Old Mill.