Anyone hesitant to buy now?

[Jetsfan]

Just curious what people on the site have been thinking with the recent significant rise in prices for most cards. Given that this appears to involve many cards across the collecting spectrum, seems less likely to relate to any “buyers group.” This, at least in part, seems to be related to people staying home related to COVID-19 and looking for something to do (just my guess). Of course no one can predict the future, but just wondering if any people are holding off on buying right now, to wait and see if things return to some degree of “normalcy” after the COVID situation has become more manageable (vaccine, better therapies, etc.).

Obviously, not all of us are waiting on the sidelines, as someone is causing this spike in prices!

Thanks everyone, and my apologies if this was discussed in another post recently.

Adam

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

Just curious what people on the site have been thinking with the recent significant rise in prices for most cards. Given that this appears to involve many cards across the collecting spectrum, seems less likely to relate to any “buyers group.” This, at least in part, seems to be related to people staying home related to COVID-19 and looking for something to do (just my guess). Of course no one can predict the future, but just wondering if any people are holding off on buying right now, to wait and see if things return to some degree of “normalcy” after the COVID situation has become more manageable (vaccine, better therapies, etc.).

Obviously, not all of us are waiting on the sidelines, as someone is causing this spike in prices!

Thanks everyone, and my apologies if this was discussed in another post recently.

Adam

Hey Adam
I think you answered your own question ie...the spike in prices.

.

[Jetsfan]

Yes Leon. I guess I’m more wondering if there are any folks out there who are actually sitting on the sidelines right now and expecting prices to retreat a little bit. It’s just a bit nutty how much prices have spiked, even in the past few months. I’m certainly hesitant to purchase right now...though I did purchase a couple of things

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

Just curious what people on the site have been thinking with the recent significant rise in prices for most cards. Given that this appears to involve many cards across the collecting spectrum, seems less likely to relate to any “buyers group.” This, at least in part, seems to be related to people staying home related to COVID-19 and looking for something to do (just my guess). Of course no one can predict the future, but just wondering if any people are holding off on buying right now, to wait and see if things return to some degree of “normalcy” after the COVID situation has become more manageable (vaccine, better therapies, etc.).

Obviously, not all of us are waiting on the sidelines, as someone is causing this spike in prices!

Thanks everyone, and my apologies if this was discussed in another post recently.

Adam

I'm not so much "holding off on buying" as I'm "searching for a good deal." Granted the purchases I'm making are nowhere near the level some of the guys on this forum make, but I'm defintely taking my fair share of time hunting for the right cards at the right prices.

I have a hunch things will start going down a little bit more once people are back to a little bit of normalcy in their lives every day. Once shows start up again on a consistent basis, and people are no longer exclusively depending on the internet for buying cards. I feel this more towards the vintage market than anything.

I cannot predict the modern market for the life of me. I don't understand it, it's like people throwing money at Penny Stocks IMO. I understand Tatis Jr. is off to an amazing start and Jasson Dominguez might be the next big thing. However the prices for their cards are flat out ridiculous as we have no idea what the rest of their careers will look like. Especially the Latter. The day I drop $1500 on a card of an unproven 17 year old is the day I also buy the Brooklyn Bridge.

[swarmee]

https://www.net54baseball.com/showth...ht=coronavirus

If you want to read some really interesting threads on blowout about this, the Project 2020 thread on the baseball board and the "cook groups" thread about youtube and discord pumpers will give you a good idea.

There are a lot of cards setting records and not getting paid for, which continually pushes the market higher because now there's a high "sale" recorded. Read some threads about how $2 (last year) Lebron James cards from Panini Prizm are now selling for a thousand a piece. The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

[Jetsfan]

Hi John,

I am almost exclusively a vintage card buyer. Only real exceptions were Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel rookie cards (I’m a Sabres fan...ugh).

I actually was interested in buying a Jasson Dominguez rookie card. But there are so many variations, it’s almost impossible to know which is the base version. I didn’t have this trouble in 1985 with Dwight Gooden.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I actually was interested in buying a Jasson Dominguez rookie card.

He doesn't have a rookie card yet, since he hasn't played in the majors. Here are all the cards of his that have been uploaded to COMC so far:
https://www.comc.com/Cards,sc,=jasson+dominguez,ot

Most would recommend you purchase the 1st Bowman Chrome BCP-8 as the "prospect" card to own of his, even though it's a year after his Panini cards. Your other base option is the BP-8 "paper" version, at 1/3rd of the price. If you wait a few months for 2020 Goodwin Champions to show up on Upper Deck epack, there will be a flood of 2020 Upper Deck Jasson cards on the market.

[JohnnyKilroy]

Originally Posted by swarmee

The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

I was just talking about that yesterday. It really is crazy, like that Lebron reference post above. 100-1000% jumps in weeks if not days. I’m a new member here.. first post!!... but I also believe there’s an economic downturn coming that will definitely drag the industry with it. I saw a post on Facebook where the guy needed to sell because he was behind on car payments. How many other younger generation are jamming into this, spending thousands, without even a savings account??

[BillMill]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKilroy

I was just talking about that yesterday. It really is crazy, like that Lebron reference post above. 100-1000% jumps in weeks if not days. I’m a new member here.. first post!!... but I also believe there’s an economic downturn coming that will definitely drag the industry with it. I saw a post on Facebook where the guy needed to sell because he was behind on car payments. How many other younger generation are jamming into this, spending thousands, without even a savings account??

I am a Lebron James and Derek Jeter collector. If his career continues the way it is heading. I expect his cards to sky rocket even more. Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame should also sky rocket. There is money out there. My take on this.

[Exhibitman]

FWIW, there is a thread in the basketball section discussing the run-up and now apparently downturn on hoops cards. Looks to me like whoever was pumping is now dumping.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by BillMill

I am a Lebron James and Derek Jeter collector. If his career continues the way it is heading. I expect his cards to sky rocket even more. Jeter getting into the Hall of Fame should also sky rocket. There is money out there. My take on this.

Seems to me that the Hall should be pretty well baked into Jeter prices at this point, but who knows.

[Tyruscobb]

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

Thanks for saving me the time with the great post. I'll buy anything I want but find my want lists are dwindling anyway. You would have to be a legal moron to pay these prices for new cards. If I'm buying, I'm buying vintage. Just like I did in the 1980's when all the 8 year old "Investors" and their parents got SMEARED! LOL....maybe you missed the part where history always repeats itself. Vintage will always be blue chip whether it goes up or down. New stuff will always be Tulip Bulbs. Make a note and write it down kiddies.

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I’m a baseball card collector - not investor. I don’t really worry about whether my purchases appreciate or depreciate. The reason is I never sell, other than when I upgrade a card, and will die with my cards. I’ll let my heirs deal with the profit/loss aspect.

I focus on collector grades and great looking cards just below it. The current spike has moved me to the sidelines. I’m having a very difficult time finding reasonable deals. Although I don’t worry about the investing repercussions, I do want to stretch my dollars so that I can increase my purchase quantities.

Although I hate not buying, I’m still earmarking cash for future purchases. I’ll sit back and continue letting my war chest grow. Hopefully, the market will return to a reasonable level, and I can return to knocking off cards on my want list.

Exactly the same on my end - It appears that I have the "patience of Job" - I am long past buying the 1st thing that pops up - a "war chest" is a good thing.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by swarmee

The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

Except the Dutch Tulip Craze, more or less didn't happen in anything remotely resembling the way we hear about it today. The card thing is real!

[Jetsfan]

John,

Thanks for the Dominguez explanation. At least I know know what to look for!

[JohnnyKilroy]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Except the Dutch Tulip Craze, more or less didn't happen in anything remotely resembling the way we hear about it today. The card thing is real!

Agreed, much different times. But one could argue that with social media, and the acceleration of growth because of it, we could experience the boom / bust on a whole new level. However, I think you are correct. There is a ton of room to grow if managed correctly. The card thing is real and there are a lot of exciting things happening. Yes, supply / demand will dictate the market. Investors are turning more to cards, like crypto currency (sites like starstock too). What I am afraid of the most, is that the bulk of people in this boom right now are not in the upper echelon of income levels. It won’t take much for an economic shift, and the bulk of your demand will start to dry up. I think that shift is coming. Again.. all just my opinion. I stick to vintage, I’m a collector, and I don’t care about the ups / downs these cards take. Although it does make it hard to spread the bank roll around when cards have jumped so much!

[buymycards]

I don't even think about buying Trout, LeBron, etc. However, there are a lot of good deals to be had right now, with pre-war, 50's and 60's cards, vintage non-sports and with many other genres. In the past 3 months I have purchased more cards than I have ever purchased during a 3 month period. Many of these were cheap enough that I am able to flip them for a small profit on eBay, and some were for my personal collection. Just stay away from the Cobbs, Mantles, high grade slabs, and watch for the bargains in lower grades. It takes a lot of time and a lot of searching, but there is no reason to stop buying at this time.

[drcy]

There are two reasons price guides are unreliable: 1) Shilling and 2) You don't know which which sales were actual sales. Many surely were not.

Originally Posted by swarmee

https://www.net54baseball.com/showth...ht=coronavirus

If you want to read some really interesting threads on blowout about this, the Project 2020 thread on the baseball board and the "cook groups" thread about youtube and discord pumpers will give you a good idea.

There are a lot of cards setting records and not getting paid for, which continually pushes the market higher because now there's a high "sale" recorded. Read some threads about how $2 (last year) Lebron James cards from Panini Prizm are now selling for a thousand a piece. The scope and scale of the bubble is like the Dutch tulip market 500 years ago...

[Kingcobb]

I collect PSA 5 T206's, commons I was paying 75 to 100 dollars are now gong for $200 and up, and HOF'ers are insane. I can't bring myself to pay these prices I have only picked up 1 card the past year. If these prices continue I will probably cash out its very tempting could double or triple my original cost.

[Ronnie73]

I am somewhat sitting on the sidelines since the price increases but occasionally I still do purchase a T206 for my set when the price is super reasonable. I also collect other items such as coins and I've had really good luck purchasing rare varieties at common prices. The deals are still out there. There just isn't as many as there used to be. I'm still spending all of my monthly budget so basically I'm still staying pretty busy and I feel that the items I'm purchasing are more stable than the dollar currently is.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Kingcobb

I collect PSA 5 T206's, commons I was paying 75 to 100 dollars are now gong for $200 and up, and HOF'ers are insane. I can't bring myself to pay these prices I have only picked up 1 card the past year. If these prices continue I will probably cash out its very tempting could double or triple my original cost.

I believe these price increases are real and not the result of shilling, no-sales, or other price manipulation. There are many cards whose values are truly up, including PSA 5 T206s.

If you can afford them and are willing and able to hold for the long term (5-10+ years), I believe T206s, Cobbs, Ruths, Jacksons, Wagners, other rare pre WWI issues and blue chip HOFers are great investments. I have watched them increase consistently in value for 35 years (since I started collecting in the early 80's) and I do not see that changing. This is true also of Mantle, Clemente, Koufax, Aaron, Robinson, etc., but these are too "common" for me personally. Baseball cards of blue chip players will go up in the long-term. Just like stock. If you believe this, and I do, then there is no sense in trying to "time the market". Rather, believe in the investment.

[jjp3rd]

Good question. My answer may not make sense, but yes I think there will be a price retreat (I.e. bubble burst), and yes I continue to buy. I am a collector, and if I see something I want or need, I buy it if the price is right. I have overpaid on a few things, for certain, but I am buying to hold and I don’t want to pass up the opportunity to obtain cards that I have targeted for a while when they appear.

I know there is an investment aspect, but it’s not my problem—I plan to die with most of these cards in my possession, so their value won’t matter. My kids will be happy with whatever they get out of it.


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[midwaylandscaping]

Originally Posted by jjp3rd

Good question. My answer may not make sense, but yes I think there will be a price retreat (I.e. bubble burst), and yes I continue to buy. I am a collector, and if I see something I want or need, I buy it if the price is right. I have overpaid on a few things, for certain, but I am buying to hold and I don’t want to pass up the opportunity to obtain cards that I have targeted for a while when they appear.

I know there is an investment aspect, but it’s not my problem—I plan to die with most of these cards in my possession, so their value won’t matter. My kids will be happy with whatever they get out of it.


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Makes perfect sense here, same strategy. I put a base 03 Topps LeBron James on eBay, first eBay sell listing for me since 2010. I took the money from the sale and turned it into PSA graded 78 OPC(7) & Topps(8) Eddie Murrays, a PSA 7 66 Philadelphia Bob Hayes, a 79 Topps PSA 7 Ozzie Newsome, a 56 Topps PSA 2(great eye appeal) Roosevelt Brown from Levi 707, and a 32 inch LG Smart TV. Wanted the LeBron gone, got things I wanted that will be with me for years. Well, the tv may not last decades

[jjp3rd]

Originally Posted by midwaylandscaping

Makes perfect sense here, same strategy. I put a base 03 Topps LeBron James on eBay, first eBay sell listing for me since 2010. I took the money from the sale and turned it into PSA graded 78 OPC(7) & Topps(8) Eddie Murrays, a PSA 7 66 Philadelphia Bob Hayes, a 79 Topps PSA 7 Ozzie Newsome, a 56 Topps PSA 2(great eye appeal) Roosevelt Brown from Levi 707, and a 32 inch LG Smart TV. Wanted the LeBron gone, got things I wanted that will be with me for years. Well, the tv may not last decades

That’s a great haul! I’ve heard some of my friends tell similar tales...selling modern and putting the money into vintage. You’re the first one to add a TV, though! Great stuff.


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[pokerplyr80]

I owned a few modern cards that were up quite a lot over what I paid. I sold most of them and it covered a good portion of the CJ Jackson I picked up here. I'm still buying, but none of the cards that have experienced the huge run ups (other than a Goudey Ruth).

[seanofjapan]

I think a lot of this is explicable by people re-allocating money they would have spent on other stuff like holidays to sedentary hobbies like ours which you can do at home by yourself.

The interesting question is what happens when the pandemic ends. Do people just snap back to their previous spending habits and stop pouring money into cards like they are now? Or has some of this changed behavior become permanent - people having been turned into hardcore collectors staying that way?

Either way, I would “hold” on any major purchases now since its obviously a seller’s market.

[joshuanip]

If the market tells you anything, buying on momentum is a winning strategy. Your IRR is better on increasing price momo versus sitting on intrinsic value.

Other rationale includes the boat of liquidity by the fed pushing money into all assets, including cards. And cards are similar to gold - alternative store of value. As the dollar debase, assets valued with dollars rise...

[joshuanip]

I should read earlier posts... (says the doppelgänger)

[swarmee]

Yeah, but how are cards a good store of capital when sectors like modern basketball are in hyperinflation? Again base cards of LeBron James and Kobe Bryant which used to sell for DOLLARS last year are now selling for THOUSANDS. This is not a good investment at these prices, because the money has to dry up. This would be like silver at $300/oz or DJIA at $400K... if you would invest in modern cards now, it would be the equivalent to me.

[Yoda]

when the card market corrects from its current dizzying heights, as it most certainly will, I hope that vintage pre-war cards hold up better than the deep pools of Mike Trout rookies. This board is supposed to be about vintage not the hottest rookie.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Yoda

when the card market corrects from its current dizzying heights, as it most certainly will, I hope that vintage pre-war cards hold up better than the deep pools of Mike Trout rookies. This board is supposed to be about vintage not the hottest rookie.

I would happily watch the value of my prewar collection plummet if it meant I could then afford some things that are currently out of my reach.

[Jcosta19]

Can you imagine paying 40-60k for a Jasson Domingez card?
He hasn't even played a real minor league game yet.

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[rjackson44]

i buy vintage its like fine wine ..the new stuff i flip so fast you have to.

[BobbyVCP]

Some really great stuff posted....

The point about not knowing if a sale is real or not really does not pertain to the vintage material for the most part. At VCP we see a lot of it in the modern material for a card that does not have a recorded sale so the seller tries to set a standard with a fake BIN sale, then lists the same card in a regular auction which generally sells for about 1/3 of the fake sale. At least on our site it is blatantly obvious what is being done because you can see that they are the same card in the same case and listed 10 days later. Of course we catch these and delete the fake price. We are in the process of putting in some new software to catch these as they happen so we can get the old ones deleted as the new listing is put up so that there is no record of the fake sale on VCP to sway a potential buyer.

Basketball was the craziest section by far and away and in the past week or two I have seen it start to cool down.

There is a lot of money that just came into this hobby, I talked to a new member of VCP to help him set up his My Collection and since this July he has bought over $3 mil in card.....CRAZY. He started off with modern basketball but quickly got into vintage baseball buying PSA 8 Goudey Ruths, etc

We are experiencing a different time and we will see how this all shakes out in the next year or so....I do believe things should start to level off but not crash.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

Some really great stuff posted....

The point about not knowing if a sale is real or not really does not pertain to the vintage material for the most part. At VCP we see a lot of it in the modern material for a card that does not have a recorded sale so the seller tries to set a standard with a fake BIN sale, then lists the same card in a regular auction which generally sells for about 1/3 of the fake sale. At least on our site it is blatantly obvious what is being done because you can see that they are the same card in the same case and listed 10 days later. Of course we catch these and delete the fake price. We are in the process of putting in some new software to catch these as they happen so we can get the old ones deleted as the new listing is put up so that there is no record of the fake sale on VCP to sway a potential buyer.

Basketball was the craziest section by far and away and in the past week or two I have seen it start to cool down.

There is a lot of money that just came into this hobby, I talked to a new member of VCP to help him set up his My Collection and since this July he has bought over $3 mil in card.....CRAZY. He started off with modern basketball but quickly got into vintage baseball buying PSA 8 Goudey Ruths, etc

We are experiencing a different time and we will see how this all shakes out in the next year or so....I do believe things should start to level off but not crash.

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line” to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line" to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

I knew there was something I liked about you Ryan

[Exhibitman]

I am sure that some of the runs on marquee cards were manipulated by clever shillers and touts. Those gains won't hold. Many of the other price increases are genuine and will hold to some extent. For those here who aren't hobby old farts, just remember that this is not the first time prices have surged and fallen back. There were eras (late 1970s, early 1990s, mid 2000s) where prices on vintage and established stars went up then down. Usually the 'down' does not fall all the way back to the previous lows and stay there. Absent a black swan event, anyone looking for a 2010-era pricing structure on vintage cards to emerge and hold is likely to be disappointed.

What is different now than in say 1989 is data flow. Owing to social media and eBay, the speed of the rises and falls has increased, as has the prompt widespread understanding that something is going on. Pre-'net you could take advantage of all sorts of information deficits, like buying Yankees in Los Angeles and selling them in New York; now anyone can just look up the item online and get an idea of what it is worth in seconds.

One other factor that will stabilize prices is that people often will hold a card as it declines rather than sell into a price decline because they do not want to admit to the loss; as long as they hold the card they can tell themselves that it may make money eventually. Dealers do this too. I've had repeated conversations with other collectors about how some dealers frustratingly will keep cards at overpriced levels for years in their eBay stores rather than take a smaller gain and move on to the next deal. Excluding extreme rarities where it can make sense to hold out for a huge payday from a collector who wants the item and cannot find it elsewhere, a rational seller would liquidate stale inventory and reinvest the proceeds in new inventory, because moving money in and out of deals is more lucrative in the long run than tying it up in slow moving inventory that earns nothing as it sits.

[Bobbycee]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Great post Bobby. VCP is an absolutely critical tool for any collector (I literally just re-upped my gold membership last night), and it’s good to know that you continue upgrading the tool’s technology.

The bit about the recent investor who started off modern but then turned to vintage is interesting and instructive. I think it indicates (certainly does not determine), that ultimately, vintage baseball is king and the natural tendency for new collectors is to start modern, or with the guys they know/grew up with, but then to “take a ride backwards down the number line” to the vintage stuff. (Phish reference).

Ryan, T206 is selling quite well right now as witnessed by the frenzy of prices paid for 5's & HOF's in recent auctions. Is T206 safe from any bursting bubble in the card market? I've never seen T206 prices drop. I'm hoping, at worst, that if there is a correction in the card market, this great set is not affected much, if at all.

[bbnut]

I buy a mix of it all in baseball. In 21st century cards,, I'm only buying established stars, and packs at MSRP. I'm not going to feed the flippers or obsess over PSA 10s (no graded cards for me). If I can get a few hot rookies for $5 or under, sure. I'm not paying big prices for 18 year olds. Too many sure things weren't. Collect what you enjoy, and don't try to invest long-term.

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