The future of Shohei Ohtani

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by bk400

I think it is interesting that 45% of respondents in a poll of MLB players this year said they would build a team around Ohtani. Aaron Judge was second with 14% of the vote.

And this is a guy who doesn't speak English well, so probably cannot command the clubhouse.

If he has that sort of respect from the players with whom he plays and against whom he competes, it means a lot. And it probably impacts any HOF vote.

I don't think one has to speak English to be a leader, personal energy and field performance speaks to core values as a human and ball player.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I don't think one has to speak English to be a leader, personal energy and field performance speaks to core values as a human and ball player.

I always thought all that locker room stuff was overblown anyhow. You don't win games in the locker room. Leadership is by example on the field.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I always thought all that locker room stuff was overblown anyhow. You don't win games in the locker room. Leadership is by example on the field.

Locker room negativity can definitely have an affect, ala Barry Bonds/Jeff Kent, Otahni brings more to the plate than that.

[frankbmd]

I wonder what Sadaharu Oh (he is still alive) thinks of Shohei Ohtani.

No one knows what Oh would have accomplished if he had come to major league baseball, but he averaged nearly 40 home runs a year for 22 years in Japan.
Oh never won a NPB game or even pitched in one. Oh walked a lot and Shohei is starting to see his walks increase as well. Comparing Oh to Ruth as a slugger is a speculative task. Not many would give the GOAT nod to Oh though.

If the Angels wanted to improve Shohei's offensive counting stats, they should have picked up Gehrig before the trading deadline to bat behind him. Of course a healthy and younger Trout might help in that regard, but Trout and Gehrig are post-prime and post-mortem at this point.

Shohei's future career in baseball is unknown, but it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 10 years. Now we can only guess and not consider our (judge)ments too seriously.

Trivia: Until I checked Oh's stats this morning I didn't realize the Sadaharu's mother was Japanese and his father was Chinese. In China he is known as
Wang Chen-chih. OH MY!

Trivia: Oh was the pitching ace of his high school team as though, but never pitched in the NPB.

Trivia: Oh competed in a home run derby in Japan with Hank Aaron, that Hank won 10-9.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who is going to trade a franchise player for a guy about to become a free agent? The other team might as well just wait and see if they can sign him. Works both ways.

The other team would not trade a franchise guy if I stated wrong I appologize

I meant they would get just a big Haul of Prospects that that could alter the franchise if those prospects develop and make impact in the MLB for the Angels instead of them getting nothing when He just walks away.

[D. Bergin]

I know we want to be all pragmatic and analytical about this, but you don't trade a guy in the middle of a historic season like this, contract year or not.

I have a hard time believing there's a lot of Angels fans out there itching to "stockpile for the future", if it costs them the rest of the season with Ohtani.

Watching Ohtani do what he does, IS their playoffs and World Series, all rolled into one right now.

From an ownership perspective, if you think there's the slightest chance you might re-sign him...you don't even give him a hint that you might be shopping him around.

If you don't think you can re-sign him, you make all the money you can off him right now. Ride that marketing train for this historic season for the next decade and beyond. You trade him now for some teams 2nd and 3rd best prospects...all that comes to an end right now.

I highly doubt MLB in general wants him to change teams either. Will take the shine off his accomplishment if it's split between two teams...while you're also expecting him to just pick up where he left off, in a completely different clubhouse and environment from where he came from.

This guy is already walking a fine line with his health and durability. I don't think anything good can come with the added stress of packing up and moving somewhere else, mid-season.

[packs]

I agree with that. I think if Sammy Sosa or Mark McGwire were impending free agents in 1998 there's no way the Cubs or Cardinals would have traded them.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

I agree with that. I think if Sammy Sosa or Mark McGwire were impending free agents in 1998 there's no way the Cubs or Cardinals would have traded them.

Pack the parks and get the television ratings now. Then sell nick nacks and paddy wacks commemorating this season, from now until the end of eternity. That's how you get compensated for losing him at the end of the season.

[D. Bergin]

I hope I'm wrong (and I have been concerning this guy before), if Ohtani's body is as fragile as a lot of us suspect it may be, the Angel's best bet may be to cash in on his fame right now...and let somebody else pay roughly 1/2 a Billion $'s for him, for next year and beyond.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I highly doubt MLB in general wants him to change teams either. Will take the shine off his accomplishment if it's split between two teams...while you're also expecting him to just pick up where he left off, in a completely different clubhouse and environment from where he came from.

Interesting take... wouldn't it be much better for MLB if he was on a team with legitimate championship aspirations? Look at the LAA lineup - he's playing with a bunch of bums.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Interesting take... wouldn't it be much better for MLB if he was on a team with legitimate championship aspirations? Look at the LAA lineup - he's playing with a bunch of bums.

No, because that team would have had legitimate championship aspirations without him, also. He'd be a carpetbagger...a hired gun that got them across the finish line. He'd have no history with them otherwise.

I take this all back, if he goes to another team, wins 2 World Series Games and hits 5 HR's in the same series.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Interesting take... wouldn't it be much better for MLB if he was on a team with legitimate championship aspirations? Look at the LAA lineup - he's playing with a bunch of bums.

Mike Trout might take exception to that characterization. Moniak is hitting well over .300. The problem with the team is the bullpen. No bulls.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Mike Trout might take exception to that characterization. Moniak is hitting well over .300. The problem with the team is the bullpen. No bulls.

He can take exception to it from the bench, which is where he's been for the last month!

[BobbyStrawberry]

And forgive me if I've posted this before, but this remains one of favorites:

https://www.theonion.com/shohei-ohta...ere-1828835846

[mrreality68]

In the short term you are right he will put fans on the seats for the next few months, sell merchandise and get TV ratings.
When he leaves
Long term the seats will be emptier, the fans will buy less merchandise and ratings will be down.
Then someone else will pay the money to have him. And it will cost that team no player or prospects.
LA could have gotten a nice haul in return to hopefully make a winning team to help gain fans in seats, merchandise etc.

We will see what happens but I agree the next 2 months will be great for LA.

The next few years are the bigger question

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

In the short term you are right he will put fans on the seats for the next few months, sell merchandise and get TV ratings.
When he leaves
Long term the seats will be emptier, the fans will buy less merchandise and ratings will be down.
Then someone else will pay the money to have him. And it will cost that team no player or prospects.
LA could have gotten a nice haul in return to hopefully make a winning team to help gain fans in seats, merchandise etc.

We will see what happens but I agree the next 2 months will be great for LA.

The next few years are the bigger question

They may have gotten a couple of future starting caliber players for him, but I doubt they would have pulled a "putting fans in the seats" type of player.

Teams don't normally give those guys up, and the Rookie contracts they are on, for a 2-3 month rental. They might for a full season of a top player...but not that short of a rental. I'm sure there might be a couple exceptions to the rule here, but unlikely the Angels would have struck gold on that front.

...and it's not just the next two months of capitalization for the Angels. This is the type of season they'll be able to merchandise for years to come...whether he's with them or not.

[Seven]

I see him staying on the West Coast. I don't see the Angels retaining him. They are far from a World Series winning, ball club. I would think the Giants, Mariners or Dodgers all have a better chance of signing him.

If he were to come to the east coast, I wouldn't discount the Mets, as Steve Cohen's pockets are very deep.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Seven

I see him staying on the West Coast. I don't see the Angels retaining him. They are far from a World Series winning, ball club. I would think the Giants, Mariners or Dodgers all have a better chance of signing him.

If he were to come to the east coast, I wouldn't discount the Mets, as Steve Cohen's pockets are very deep.

My money's on the Dodgers or the Padres. I know it's been a dumpster fire season in San Diego but they have crazy amounts of talent. And the proximity to Japan from the west coast is huge - I just don't see him going East

[Seven]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

My money's on the Dodgers or the Padres. I know it's been a dumpster fire season in San Diego but they have crazy amounts of talent. And the proximity to Japan from the west coast is huge - I just don't see him going East

I would agree on your latter point. I certainly think East Coast is a long shot. If Cohen were to pony up 50 Million more than the next highest bidder though, I wouldn't be surprised if he accepted it. Padres are another interesting team, that I forgot about. California, to me, seems so dominated by the Dodgers and Giants, that I often forget about the Padres when it comes to these discussions!

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Seven

I would agree on your latter point. I certainly think East Coast is a long shot. If Cohen were to pony up 50 Million more than the next highest bidder though, I wouldn't be surprised if he accepted it. Padres are another interesting team, that I forgot about. California, to me, seems so dominated by the Dodgers and Giants, that I often forget about the Padres when it comes to these discussions!

supposedly the 2 biggest things he wants to Stay on west coast and be on a winning team
San Fran and LA Dodgers can both afford to put up a lot of money and LA is deep and a winning team
Cohen can out spend perhaps but not on West Coast and after trading everyone especially Verlander many do not trust their formula for a winning team and do not see them on a good path (at least in the short term for a winning team)

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

They may have gotten a couple of future starting caliber players for him, but I doubt they would have pulled a "putting fans in the seats" type of player.

Teams don't normally give those guys up, and the Rookie contracts they are on, for a 2-3 month rental. They might for a full season of a top player...but not that short of a rental. I'm sure there might be a couple exceptions to the rule here, but unlikely the Angels would have struck gold on that front.

...and it's not just the next two months of capitalization for the Angels. This is the type of season they'll be able to merchandise for years to come...whether he's with them or not.

you might be right but prior to them saying he was not going to be traded most sports news outlets and papers were saying that they would get a tremendous hall for him.

But it a mute point now so they can enjoy their 2 months to say goodby

[rats60]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

you might be right but prior to them saying he was not going to be traded most sports news outlets and papers were saying that they would get a tremendous hall for him.

But it a mute point now so they can enjoy their 2 months to say goodby

Who was offering a haul of prospects? All reports were that the Angels were not getting good offers. If the teams believed that he was only signing with a west coast team, they weren't offering much for a two month rental. The Angels would be better off trying to resign Ohtani and if they don't, take the draft pick at the end of round one instead of taking a bad offer.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by rats60

Who was offering a haul of prospects? All reports were that the Angels were not getting good offers. If the teams believed that he was only signing with a west coast team, they weren't offering much for a two month rental. The Angels would be better off trying to resign Ohtani and if they don't, take the draft pick at the end of round one instead of taking a bad offer.

Here is an article that talks about it from cbs sports as an example

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...-farm-systems/

and another from Sports illustrated as another example

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/07/19/sh...dgers-phillies

[Peter_Spaeth]

Dodgers.

But especially with the team still in the playoff hunt, no way they could have traded him.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Here is an article that talks about it from cbs sports as an example

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...-farm-systems/

and another from Sports illustrated as another example

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/07/19/sh...dgers-phillies

There are no actual trade offers in those articles. Writers like to throw out trades that have no chance of happening just to get clicks.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by rats60

There are no actual trade offers in those articles. Writers like to throw out trades that have no chance of happening just to get clicks.

Has there were no offers because he was not made available or perhaps some were made behind closed doors and we will never know.

I am just showing what writers who no the industry (and some that may not) think offers that different teams would need to make it worth both teams.

They do that in every sport and then they grade the trades they occurs because that is what the mass of sports fans like seeing the analysis and the opinions to get a feel for how their teams and trades did

But again it is all moot since he was not made available for trade and the Angels will have him for 2 months and then we will see where he goes and how the Angels do going forward

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Seven

I see him staying on the West Coast. I don't see the Angels retaining him. They are far from a World Series winning, ball club. I would think the Giants, Mariners or Dodgers all have a better chance of signing him.

If he were to come to the east coast, I wouldn't discount the Mets, as Steve Cohen's pockets are very deep.

Giants have a good chance of backing up the truck for Ohtani after missing out on Judge & Correa (thank god). They have a huge 23 acre development outside of the Park that will generate substantial income for the team. Spend away Giants, spend away...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Shohei Ohtani 2024 Team Odds
Team Odds Implied Probability
Los Angeles Dodgers +300 25.0%
New York Yankees +450 18.2%
San Diego Padres +450 18.2%
New York Mets +550 15.4%
San Francsico Giants +800 11.1%
Los Angeles Angels +1000 9.1%
Texas Rangers +1500 6.3%
Chicago Cubs +2000 4.8%
Boston Red Sox +2000 4.8%
The Field +1150 8.0%

[bk400]

When you look at the Angels and see that he leads the team in every meaningful batting and pitching stat, you just wonder how bad they would be if you replaced him with a bunch of prospects and maybe a three or four Tier 2 veterans. And a previous poster is right in that Ohtani's less than fluent English probably doesn't hamper his ability to lead the team. So I take that back.

I'm going contrarian and predicting that he stays with the Angels long term. He's going to accept a lot less money than what he's worth in order to help them win a championship -- and he's going to go down as a legend in his adopted community. Something tells me he's listening to people like Ichiro, as opposed to the A-Rods of the world. And it would be better for the soul of baseball.

I grew up as a Mets fan, but please please please don't let him go work for that hedge fund guy.

Please.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I hope I'm wrong (and I have been concerning this guy before), if Ohtani's body is as fragile as a lot of us suspect it may be, the Angel's best bet may be to cash in on his fame right now...and let somebody else pay roughly 1/2 a Billion $'s for him, for next year and beyond.

You may right. However, the combination of a finger blister with a broken finger nail does not reach my definition of a fragile body. He had his Tommy John episode (who hasn’t). He never takes himself out of the lineup for aches and pains. He’s missed two games this year.

All in all one can only conclude he is a physical wreck.

I suspect this forum would have had the same pessimism with regards to Ruth in 1920. (Or not)

The future hasn’t happened yet is all I can say. I liked Mays in 1954.

For me it’s say hey for Shohei.

I wish him well.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

You may right. However, the combination of a finger blister with a broken finger nail does not reach my definition of a fragile body. He had his Tommy John episode (who hasn’t). He never takes himself out of the lineup for aches and pains. He’s missed two games this year.

All in all one can only conclude he is a physical wreck.

I suspect this forum would have had the same pessimism with regards to Ruth in 1920. (Or not)

The future hasn’t happened yet is all I can say. I liked Mays in 1954.

For me it’s say hey for Shohei.

I wish him well.

I think it's more of us suspecting the physical toll that pitching once every six days, and hitting the days that he "has off," will catch up to him. Everyone's bodies break down eventually, and he's been doing this for a bit. I'm not saying, it's going to happen, but even the mightiest in this game, have fallen. Father time, catches us all, and he might catch Ohtani quicker than others because of what he puts his body through. This is pure speculation though, and I'm enjoying the ride.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

I wonder what Sadaharu Oh (he is still alive) thinks of Shohei Ohtani.

No one knows what Oh would have accomplished if he had come to major league baseball, but he averaged nearly 40 home runs a year for 22 years in Japan.

Oh was interviewed in Japanese media during the WBC about Ohtani and made some generic compliments about his performance. Oh is a front office executive for the Hawks (whom he used to manage), who were rivals of Ohtani's team (Fighters) so they've never actually met.

Back in the early days of NPB just before Oh came up it wasn't uncommon for players in Japan to do what Ohtani is doing - be both a star pitcher and star batter.

The guy who had the single season hit record in NPB before Ichiro broke it (Fumio Fujimura) also had a 34-11 career record with a 2.43 ERA on the mound.

Michio Nishizawa, who led the league in batting average and RBIs in 1952 also had 60 career wins on the mound (though playing for the Dragons he had a losing record).

There are a few other HOFers with similar hitting/pitching resumes. By the time Oh came up in 1959 it was a lot rarer and eventually died out until Ohtani came along.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by bk400

When you look at the Angels and see that he leads the team in every meaningful batting and pitching stat, you just wonder how bad they would be if you replaced him with a bunch of prospects and maybe a three or four Tier 2 veterans. And a previous poster is right in that Ohtani's less than fluent English probably doesn't hamper his ability to lead the team. So I take that back.

I'm going contrarian and predicting that he stays with the Angels long term. He's going to accept a lot less money than what he's worth in order to help them win a championship -- and he's going to go down as a legend in his adopted community. Something tells me he's listening to people like Ichiro, as opposed to the A-Rods of the world. And it would be better for the soul of baseball.

I grew up as a Mets fan, but please please please don't let him go work for that hedge fund guy.

Please.

Cannot disagree about most of your points. You are right. I am not concerned about the language.
But we will see how they replace all that production next years and the years going forward without those prospects and players they would have had.

Neither side is wrong in keeping or not keeping him. I just feel getting 2 months of Ohtani vs the long term potential of what they could have gotten is really going to hurt them.

and WOW #40 Last night and raising his average to .310 and on base to .413 is simply amazing.
Hopefully he is ok pitching short and long term as he had to stop pitching after great innings do to another minor issue.

[bk400]

Perhaps I am too much of a believer in motherhood and apple pie, but I'd like to think that the Angels had a man to man discussion with Ohtani in June and came to a gentleman's agreement about what his long term contract would be for 2024 and beyond. If Ohtani plays for two months and then leaves for another team, it would be such a tremendous loss of face for the Angels, and I just don't think Ohtani's camp would want that for the team that gave him his start in the MLB.

I also suspect that Ohtani has figured out that Tom Brady is a god in New England, Ichiro's money is no good at any bar in Seattle, and the whole world outside of Saudi Arabia thinks that Messi is awesome and Ronaldo is...less awesome.

Not that I would know, but I'd like to think that for athletes like Ohtani, legacy is the asset that they want to maximize.

[packs]

Originally Posted by bk400

Perhaps I am too much of a believer in motherhood and apple pie, but I'd like to think that the Angels had a man to man discussion with Ohtani in June and came to a gentleman's agreement about what his long term contract would be for 2024 and beyond. If Ohtani plays for two months and then leaves for another team, it would be such a tremendous loss of face for the Angels, and I just don't think Ohtani's camp would want that for the team that gave him his start in the MLB.

I also suspect that Ohtani has figured out that Tom Brady is a god in New England, Ichiro's money is no good at any bar in Seattle, and the whole world outside of Saudi Arabia thinks that Messi is awesome and Ronaldo is...less awesome.

Not that I would know, but I'd like to think that for athletes like Ohtani, legacy is the asset that they want to maximize.

The Angels owner isn't exactly known for his strong sentimental attachment to his team. Or even known for improving it. I wouldn't hold my breath.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by packs

The Angels owner isn't exactly known for his strong sentimental attachment to his team. Or even known for improving it. I wouldn't hold my breath.

Yeah, you got me on that one.

[Seven]

No one has any idea of what Arte Moreno thinks at any moment, guy is a bit of a nut job. Certainly seems to have no issue spending money, but does it in the wrong places, on the wrong guys.

Ohtani has admitted that playing for a losing team is exhausting. This team is at best a wild card team, with Trout and Ohtani. I think the chances of him staying with them, are slim to none.

[mrreality68]

Too bad Moreno did not sell the team.

If he did a new owner or ownership group might have been able to produce both the money and the plan to win to potentially convince him to stay.

But no sale and no plan means Bye Bye Birdy.

Would be great to see him stay and even better if the team could compete each year
Would love to see him and trout in the playoffs

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Seven

No one has any idea of what Arte Moreno thinks at any moment, guy is a bit of a nut job. Certainly seems to have no issue spending money, but does it in the wrong places, on the wrong guys.

Ohtani has admitted that playing for a losing team is exhausting. This team is at best a wild card team, with Trout and Ohtani. I think the chances of him staying with them, are slim to none.

Last night's game was a perfect microcosm of their season - Ohtani pitches lights out, single-handedly ties up the game (IBB, SB, scores on a "no shift rule" single), and then their closer blows the game in epic fashion. Without Trout they are basically a one-man team

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Last night's game was a perfect microcosm of their season - Ohtani pitches lights out, single-handedly ties up the game (IBB, SB, scores on a "no shift rule" single), and then their closer blows the game in epic fashion. Without Trout they are basically a one-man team

And with Trout they still have the same crappy bullpen. The problem with the team is the bullpen.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And with Trout they still have the same crappy bullpen. The problem with the team is the bullpen.

They have had 22 pitchers this year who have not started a game and arguably the best of the lot walks the first three batters on 14 pitches and then surrenders a grand slam to a fellow who is not exactly well known named Marlowe.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Well, the Angels are now 0-6 since the trade deadline. I wonder if their fans are starting to accept that not trading him when they could was a colossal blunder. Now they won't get anything for him!

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Well, the Angels are now 0-6 since the trade deadline. I wonder if their fans are starting to accept that not trading him when they could was a colossal blunder. Now they won't get anything for him!

I hope for their fans they play better down the stretch and at least make it competitive because as of now 7 games out of the WC with several teams in front of them.

And if they were hoping to convince him to stay this losing streak is not helping any.

[packs]

As mentioned, can you guys think of another instance in which a player having a historic year, like Ohtani is, was traded midway through the season?

Maris didn't get traded. The Yankees didn't trade Judge. Williams didn't get traded while hitting 400. Neither did Bill Terry. Denny McClain won 30 games for the Tigers. McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds, all not traded.

Can you think of anyone?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by packs

As mentioned, can you guys think of another instance in which a player having a historic year, like Ohtani is, was traded midway through the season?

Maris didn't get traded. The Yankees didn't trade Judge. Williams didn't get traded while hitting 400. Neither did Bill Terry. Denny McClain won 30 games for the Tigers. McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds, all not traded.

Can you think of anyone?

Maybe McGwire when he got traded from Oakland to St. Louis? He had 34 Homers through 105 games, and then went on a tear and came close to equaling Maris in 1997, when he finished with 58 homers, cumulatively.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Seven

Maybe McGwire when he got traded from Oakland to St. Louis? He had 34 Homers through 105 games, and then went on a tear and came close to equaling Maris in 1997, when he finished with 58 homers, cumulatively.

Don't think so. Griffey had 30 by the All Star break that year. McGwire had one extra home run. I have no recollection of a chase between him and Griffey.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Seven

Maybe McGwire when he got traded from Oakland to St. Louis? He had 34 Homers through 105 games, and then went on a tear and came close to equaling Maris in 1997, when he finished with 58 homers, cumulatively.

…..and they got straight up garbage in return for him.

[bk400]

The Angels managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last night. Painful to watch.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by bk400

The Angels managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last night. Painful to watch.

Their bullpen is remarkably consistent.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by bk400

The Angels managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last night. Painful to watch.

7 Loses in a Row since the trade deadline. That is not what their fans were hoping for in their final 2 months of his Angels Career. They were in the 3rd Wild Card spot playoff hunt. Now they are fading fast and 8 games behind.

and Yes their Relief Corp is the most Consistent in the League. Sadly they consistently Suck