PSA 9 52 Topps Mantle sells for $5.2M

[notfast]

I feel like there’s a bunch of salty hot takes in this thread.

Why? Shouldn’t we all be happy the industry is booming and buzzing like this.

I am.

[LincolnVT]

I'm not a Yankees fan, but Ruth and Mantle are household baseball names...known by name better than some U.S. Presidents. Heros of their times and on winning teams. We all know names like Wagner any Musial but the majority of Americans don't. This is why cards with household names may appeal to investors like this outside of the hobby. Safe.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by notfast

I feel like there’s a bunch of salty hot takes in this thread.

Why? Shouldn’t we all be happy the industry is booming and buzzing like this.

I am.

My favorite part is it being called a "waste of money". Buying an extremely prized and established collectible that could easily keep gaining ground....that's just tossing your $ in the sewer

[Fred]

Originally Posted by notfast

I feel like there’s a bunch of salty hot takes in this thread.

Why? Shouldn’t we all be happy the industry is booming and buzzing like this.

I am.

Yeah a bunch of salty dogs on the board. Many years ago when this was a hobby, it was nice to be able to obtain a card without having to get a second mortgage or feel bad for hiding it from the wife (ok, so we used to do it then, also).

With the evolution of card grading for the hobby came an escalation of prices because of the flip/label number game. Sure, the population is low at the upper ends of the scale but those prices also impact pricing at the lower end of the scale and thus there is an impact on a lot of collectors.

I still think of collecting as a hobby rather than an investment. I would hate to think that my pleasure in having/owning a card is diminished because it dropped in value. At that point, I'd just quit collecting this stuff.

For the investors in this hobby, enjoy the ride. If it all comes crashing down and you don't care about the reduced value, then you'll probably figure out that you're truly a collector a heart.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by notfast

Shouldn’t we all be happy the industry is booming and buzzing like this.

Prices like this scare me, as a collector, because I worry that I am going to be shut out of a whole range of additional cards due to price increases. I've wanted a 52 Mantle for a while and with this price on a 9, what's a 2 going to cost? Should I drop $20K-$30K for a beater now, just in case? Not just Mantle--look at the 1952 Topps Robinson lately. My beater is a four-figure card now. I questioned spending $700 on a PSA 3 1954 Aaron a few years ago but I did it; now a $3,500-$4,000 card. I got so frustrated with pricing in the late 2000s that I stopped collecting baseball cards almost entirely and shifted to the other sports and to baseball ephemera because they were cheaper. It feels like it is happening all over again. That's why I cannot applaud the latest, greatest sales.

[Fred]

Here's a thought -

To continue a hobby there has to be new "hobbyists" that also want to collect these cards that are now becoming less and less accessible to the average person because of price escalation.

Fans of the game will just say NO to collecting cards because how much fun is there trying to collect stuff that you can't afford and can only have a few examples.

At some point the only people that will be buying expensive cards are investors that usually have a short attention span. Then when those investors get bored or see the next investment opportunity they'll be off to investing in graded Pez dispensers. Someone is going to be left holding the bag because the smart investors will have already bailed out in time to ensure they're not left holding the $5M Mantle. Sadly the collector/hobbyists that "invested" in the cards will be crying about how much they lost when the card bubble burst.

Now it's time for someone else to write a quick paragraph on how these investors retired early because they invested wisely in cardboard images and how these values will continue to rise and entice more people into buying cardboard instead of using it as a shelter to sleep in.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by Fred

Here's a thought -

To continue a hobby there has to be new "hobbyists" that also want to collect these cards that are now becoming less and less accessible to the average person because of price escalation.

Fans of the game will just say NO to collecting cards because how much fun is there trying to collect stuff that you can't afford and can only have a few examples.

At some point the only people that will be buying expensive cards are investors that usually have a short attention span. Then when those investors get bored or see the next investment opportunity they'll be off to investing in graded Pez dispensers. Someone is going to be left holding the bag because the smart investors will have already bailed out in time to ensure they're not left holding the $5M Mantle. Sadly the collector/hobbyists that "invested" in the cards will be crying about how much they lost when the card bubble burst.

Now it's time for someone else to write a quick paragraph on how these investors retired early because they invested wisely in cardboard images and how these values will continue to rise and entice more people into buying cardboard instead of using it as a shelter to sleep in.

Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.

One thing about price momentum... can go on for a very long time, especially if the fed makes it so there are no longer any economic cycles to create forced sales and temper pricing. Add in the fact that you see inflation expectations finally inflecting, and you know that nominal rates are capped (fed + you can’t raise rates at these debt levels else you bankrupt us), reflecting compression into negative real rates, and you get an explosion in the price of non yielding alternative stores of value, like art, cards, gold and Bitcoin.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.

One thing about price momentum... can go on for a very long time, especially if the fed makes it so there are no longer any economic cycles to create forced sales and temper pricing. Add in the fact that you see inflation expectations finally inflecting, and you know that nominal rates are capped (fed + you can’t raise rates at these debt levels else you bankrupt us), reflecting compression into negative real rates, and you get an explosion in the price of non yielding alternative stores of value, like art, cards, gold and Bitcoin.

I dunno what most of that means but Babe Ruth cards are fun!

[Fred]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.

One thing about price momentum... can go on for a very long time, especially if the fed makes it so there are no longer any economic cycles to create forced sales and temper pricing. Add in the fact that you see inflation expectations finally inflecting, and you know that nominal rates are capped (fed + you can’t raise rates at these debt levels else you bankrupt us), reflecting compression into negative real rates, and you get an explosion in the price of non yielding alternative stores of value, like art, cards, gold and Bitcoin.

Josh, great post.

Something else to consider here is that there is more cash on the "sidelines" now than at any other time.

Depending upon what source is used, there is approximately 50 cents on the sideline for every dollar in the market. Ok, that 50 cents includes many things that may not be so liquid but the point is that people are looking to buy something that they feel will appreciate (over time) more than the dollar will.

Just guessing, but the rate of rise/escalation for cards might depend on where in this cycle things are. Has the search for "investments" just started? If so, then who knows what the limit will be. If people have already devoted a good portion of sideline money to other investments then wouldn't that be a precursor to a stagnant investment opportunity? If so, would that be enough to spook "investors" out of card board?

Fun game trying to predict the economy.

Bottom line is that for most collectors, the cardboard is getting too far out of reach. Heck, it might even be an interesting consideration do dump all of the higher priced "cardboard commodities" (assuming you're in them cheap) and look at a different avenue to "invest".

For me, I don't buy for investment. I buy because I like looking a pictures of mostly dead guys on old cardboard. If things get even crazier, I might think of liquidating and hoping to purchase it all back cheaper than what I sold it for, but that's also a crap shoot.

[Casey2296]

I bought a raw, centered 58 Topps Mantle All Star in NM condition this morning for $124.

It was loads of fun.

I also bought a Unicorn T-206 card last week that set me back a substantial amount and made my you know what pucker. Even though I spent a lot of $$ I think I got a good deal for what the card is.

That was loads of fun too.

It's all relative. I'll never own a 52 Mantle nor would I really want to (I prefer the 51 Bowman) but I can still have a blast collecting cards.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

Very few can have a Van Gogh, so others look for alternatives like Banksy or Pollock. So you can be in a situation where you have a paradigm shift in how we view card prices, thanks to TINA asset price reflation. When Ruth’s get priced out, people will turn to Gehrig... or Mays/Aaron for Mantle. And trickle down.

Agree! I don't covet 52 Mantle. But there are opportunities for me outside of that card, Red Cobb, 33 Goudey Ruth. I've turned to photos, Wheaties premiums, and memorabilia. And I love what I purchase. I will never have the money for 52 Matle. But why does that matter when the are 1000s of options. It's cost-benefit analysis.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[Popcorn]

It’s tuff knowing that some of the cards we sold recently are gone forever. I always thought I could buy them back if I wanted but the recent run up there’s no way. I sold my centered psa 3 52 mantle last year and it would cost 2-3x now to get it back.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Prices like this scare me, as a collector, because I worry that I am going to be shut out of a whole range of additional cards due to price increases. I've wanted a 52 Mantle for a while and with this price on a 9, what's a 2 going to cost? Should I drop $20K-$30K for a beater now, just in case? Not just Mantle--look at the 1952 Topps Robinson lately. My beater is a four-figure card now. I questioned spending $700 on a PSA 3 1954 Aaron a few years ago but I did it; now a $3,500-$4,000 card. I got so frustrated with pricing in the late 2000s that I stopped collecting baseball cards almost entirely and shifted to the other sports and to baseball ephemera because they were cheaper. It feels like it is happening all over again. That's why I cannot applaud the latest, greatest sales.

Totally agree! I was perusing an old "traders speak" rag the other night from fall 1980. I was heavy into collecting at this time...but mainly 50's-present.
There were no fewer than 5-6 52 topps mantles available for sale or through auction...ex-mt copies advertised for around 3K...lesser ones in the 1K range. The prices were out of my reach then...just as now!!!

I've passed on so many cards the last 5-8 years that held in the maybe $1500 and less range...and were always available on ebay...ruth strips...goudey ruths...cobb dietsches...joe d's...gehrig/ruth exhibits...and t206 cobbs...they were everywhere all the time!!!!!!

Now they're hoarded in "portfolios!"

In the 40 years since the issue of that trader speaks issue...the hobby has changed, A LOT...40 years before the issue...there was no hobby! What will it be like in 40 more years? Will all t206 cobbs be over 100K??? Or will they all be worth landfill?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by notfast

I feel like there’s a bunch of salty hot takes in this thread.

Why? Shouldn’t we all be happy the industry is booming and buzzing like this.

I am.

I'm on a fixed income, there's only so much I can spend to begin with. Collecting cards is a Hobby, not an investment opportunity for me. I don't plan on selling or flipping my cards to make more money off of them. Would I possibly consider selling some cards to finance the purchase of another? Maybe but I'd still be upset about doing so.

These sky rocketing prices make some of my collecting goals downright impossible. I cannot afford to drop 15K on a PSA 1 1952 Mantle. I do not have that type of money. I love the hobby becoming stronger, but when we start looking at cards as an investment opportunity rather than just something to collect and discuss, I feel like we start losing the soul of the Hobby.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Seven

I cannot afford to drop 15K on a PSA 1 1952 Mantle.

Find me one and I will...

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by notfast

I feel like there’s a bunch of salty hot takes in this thread.

Why? Shouldn’t we all be happy the industry is booming and buzzing like this.

I am.

You must be new here

And I bought a box a couple years ago of 89 UD just to rip for fun. They were only 100 bucks at the time. I did not get a Griffey, but still had 100 bucks worth of fun bring back childhood memories.