What's more important, Supply or Demand?

[mintacular]

I've always favored vintage for many reasons, one of them being that the "supply" was limited so the cards were a safer investment. Yet, recent trends suggest that when I got back into the hobby 15 or so years ago had I bought MJ rookies, PSA 10 UD Griffey's, any Lebron's, etc, I would have done much better (from a financial standpoint) compared with various Clemente, Mantle's, other rookies from the vintage years....

While these mainstay classics have ticked up over the years, never have they exploded like the aforementioned..... That said, from a collecting perspective, I have no regrets-- let me be clear... But were my assumptions all wrong? Did I focus too much on supply and minimize the demand portion? Or is the current frenzy of high grade base rookies a passing faze?

The catalyst to challenging my original mindset is the PSA 7 Jordan RC I own that has gone from $850 when I bought it in 2017? to 4K?-ish or so now while my other vintage stars have just crept up slowly in value. Mind you, the Jordan card is a VAST exception in a narrow window of excitement (due to the "Last Dance") perhaps, or is it? And also, should come back to earth....or will it?

[ALBB]

Im going to say - Demand

If every ball card in existence was avail or incredibly rare, or crazy expensive or dirt cheap.... ..there still has to be the demand

[Chicosbailbonds]

I see both sides of the argument, the demand can change fast though. When the economy turns sour, the money tends to turn to the blue chippers.

Personally I see the market getting soft for earlier Topps sets (pre 70). People die off and the families sell the sets off for whatever. People are buying more stars and fewer sets. Good news for pre 70's set collectors, singles are pretty resonable right now.

[steve B]

Demand is the single most important thing that contributes to price.

If it was simply supply, I'd be doing really well. But even the cards that I believe to be unique aren't particularly valuable.

I think there are three things that lead to something being really expensive.

Demand, especially for sportscards it almost has to be demand for a particular player.
It has to be slightly rare, but not so rare that most collectors don't even know it exists. There are loads of cards that are harder to find than the Wagner T206, Same for the 52 Topps Mantle. Most of them never get close to the price of either.
If there's a good story about why it's rare - wagner didn't want to advertise to kids, the 52 topps Highs were dumped in the ocean.... Even if it isn't true, that's what puts it over the top.

[nat]

Price is where supply and demand curves meet. By definition neither can be more important than the other.

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by nat

Price is where supply and demand curves meet. By definition neither can be more important than the other.

Not sure about that-the curves don't measure "amplitude", just trajectory based upon independent inputs.

[jchcollins]

Supply and demand with vintage cards can be a funny animal. There are far fewer presentable T206 cards on the open market today than 1950’s cards in much better shape - but yet the demand for postwar stars still means that Mantle, Aaron, Williams, Clemente, et al in nice shape are hundreds of dollars per card if not more, depending on the issue. Some of these cards, indeed likely most of them are not what you would consider rare or scarce by any definition of the words. Similarly, the demand side of the equation for modern cards like the ‘86 Jordan, the ‘89 UD Griffey, the SP Jeter, etc. is still just huge. It’s interesting to compare to junk era rookies...why is Chipper Jones worth a comparative pittance to some later 90’s rookies? Was the overproduction ramp-up that dramatic?

All told, I would still be very surprised if anything short of a huge world event (this pandemic so far would not seem to qualify...) significantly damages the vintage market long term - even for postwar HOF’ers. It would take quite a lot for everyone everywhere not to be able to afford stuff to the point where ‘52 Mantles and Rose and Ryan rookies just started falling off the map and wind up with bargain bin price tags.

I digress. Demand is not necessarily less of a factor than supply - witness junk era cards...but I’m just more interested in the demand side of it, at least for the moment.


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