Card prices skyrocketing

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

You left out the relevant part of that sale though. It wasn't just some random PSA 4. It was an extremely well-centered PSA 4, which for this particular card, easily doubles it's value over an off-centered 4. See pic below of the card you're referring to.

Worth noting is that this sale was from Goldin on 3/7. However, in that exact same auction, ending on the same day was a decently centered PSA 5 that sold for $116k, and a PSA 8 that sold for $1,353,000. That exact same PSA 8 (cert #09044593) which fetched $1.3M in the same auction as the PSA 4 just sold last month at Goldin for $2,029,500, a profit of nearly $700k in less than 8 months.

If that PSA 4 were to be relisted today, it probably sells for more than $150k.

Yes that card had decent centering, but so did the one that sold for $75k after that. It is not a card that would go for anywhere near 200% VCP, there are cards like that out there but that is not one of them.

My best guess is 2 guys got a bad case of FOMO and massively outbid on that card. It's an example of what was happening 9 months ago.

The PSA 8 pricing is interesting. There wasn't a dip on that card, although the $1.3m sale in March was less than a $1.6m sale in January which is unusual, since the market was climbing steadily from December through March. And all those cards look like really strong 8's.

I think it is hard to generalize from just a few sales. I have been tracking 100 centered Mantle cards for the last 3 years. I have posted about it before and don't want to get into the weeds of that on this thread, but if you are interested just PM me your email and we can talk further about it.

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[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yes that card had decent centering, but so did the one that sold for $75k after that. It is not a card that would go for anywhere near 200% VCP, there are cards like that out there but that is not one of them.

My best guess is 2 guys got a bad case of FOMO and massively outbid on that card. It's an example of what was happening 9 months ago.

The PSA 8 pricing is interesting. There wasn't a dip on that card, although the $1.3m sale in March was less than a $1.6m sale in January which is unusual, since the market was climbing steadily from December through March. And all those cards look like really strong 8's.

I think it is hard to generalize from just a few sales. I have been tracking 100 centered Mantle cards for the last 3 years. I have posted about it before and don't want to get into the weeds of that on this thread, but if you are interested just PM me your email and we can talk further about it.

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1 or 2 sales here and there can certainly create illusions with respect to the braoder market. And there are so many factors that can cause any one card to be worth considerably more or less than other "comps". I'm a statistician, so I'd love to look at the data if you've been tracking 100 Mantles. I'll send you a PM.

[Yoda]

To grade is human.