Goldschmidt -- HOF chances?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Huge year for him. Previously I would have said hall of very good, but now I'm wondering if he has a shot, especially as he's "only" 34. Thoughts?

[Robextend]

Previously I would have agreed with you as well. But considering he will win MVP barring anything unforeseen, that changes things a bit.

He already has three top 3 MVP finishes, and if he has maybe 3 more years close to this year, that will put him over 400 HR and about 1400 RBI with his batting avg close to 300.

I would say yes if he doesn't completely slow down.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Huge year for him. Previously I would have said hall of very good, but now I'm wondering if he has a shot, especially as he's "only" 34. Thoughts?

I still have him in the "hall of very good" at the moment, but if he remains healthy and has another productive 5 years or so, possibly!!

I'll tell you this though, I sure do miss him in Arizona. Goldy was a fan favorite.

[Seven]

I think he's trending in the right direction. His career batting average is hovering around .300. There's no reason why he won't eclipse 400 homers and 400 doubles as well, barring an absolutely massive drop off. His "Black Ink" score is a 24, for those of you familiar with the Bill James term. The average Hall of Fame first baseman, has a "Black Ink" score of 27. I think it's certainly possible he makes the Hall of Fame. He's only 34. I don't think he's going to have another season like this one, for the rest of his career. But Could I see him averaging at least 25 Homers and 25 Double over the next three to four seasons? Absolutely. Which would probably give him enough of a push to get into the Hall.

[Econteachert205]

3-4 more good seasons and I’d say yes. That trade did not work out for az.

[G1911]

A serious candidate, but not likely. He’s about to turn 35, and the Hall has been tough for 1B in the modern era. Outside of this year, he led the league in some major categories in 2013 in a season which would not normally lead the league (36 homers to win a HR crown is very low these days). Leading the league in walks in 2016 is his only other league lead. His similarity scores are bad. His homer totals are not very high for a 1B candidate. He has 1,700 hits as an on base and contact guy. This year will help a lot but he needs to perform very well through his age 38 season to measure up.

[Peter_Spaeth]

On my thread a few months back I had rated him unlikely but I think I would now say possible.
https://www.net54baseball.com/showth...ht=goldschmidt

[JustinD]

I would say that the hall of fame jumped the shark to the hall of very good years ago. He most certainly has a shot.

[packs]

If he does manage to grind out a triple crown I’d say he moves into lock territory. But if he doesn’t I think he’s still on the fence even with the MVP.

[Mike D.]

What makes a HOF 1st Basemen?

The average career WAR* of the 23 Hall of Fame first basemen is 65.5, although that average includes Lou Gehrig’s 113.7, so the medium is slightly lower.

Goldschmidt is at 57.8 WAR right now, which could bump up a bit by season end.

7.7 WAR in a 2-3 more seasons doesn't sound unreasonable, especially at his current production levels.

He's already got more career WAR than 10 HOF 1B, including Terry, Greenberg, Sisler, Perez, and Cepeda.

* - if it matters, I'm using BB-R WAR here.

[Mike D.]

Goldschmidt is one of several Active Major League Hitters Who We Think Are On The Baseball Hall Of Fame Path.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Trout??

Oh I see this is non locks got it. Barring catastrophic injury I would rank Harper over Betts, I believe a lot of Betts' WAR is from defense and who cares lol. Harper is still not even 30, to me that's amazing.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Trout??

Oh I see this is non locks got it. Barring catastrophic injury I would rank Harper over Betts, I believe a lot of Betts' WAR is from defense and who cares lol. Harper is still not even 30, to me that's amazing.

I think Harper will eventually be a lock for the Hall of Fame. Even with the Injury bug he's had, the guy has already won two MVP's. As long as nothing serious happens to him, that completely derails his career, we're looking at someone who will post a 60+ WAR and has a good shot at the 500 Home Run club.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Trout??

Oh I see this is non locks got it. Barring catastrophic injury I would rank Harper over Betts, I believe a lot of Betts' WAR is from defense and who cares lol. Harper is still not even 30, to me that's amazing.

Yes, Trout is a lock. Here's the article I did on sure thing active hitters and sure thing active pitchers.

Harper and Betts are only a couple weeks apart in age, they both have a good shot. Yes, Betts baserunning and defense adds a higher percentage of his value than Harpers. Harper has played 300 more games, and has more career homers, but their career OPS+ is fairly close (144 for Harpers, 135 for Betts).

My article on active pitchers on the path hasn't been published yet, but that's where it gets tricky. Outside the locks, the pickings get rather slim pretty quickly.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Yes, Trout is a lock. Here's the article I did on sure thing active hitters and sure thing active pitchers.

Harper and Betts are only a couple weeks apart in age, they both have a good shot. Yes, Betts baserunning and defense adds a higher percentage of his value than Harpers. Harper has played 300 more games, and has more career homers, but their career OPS+ is fairly close (144 for Harpers, 135 for Betts).

My article on active pitchers on the path hasn't been published yet, but that's where it gets tricky. Outside the locks, the pickings get rather slim pretty quickly.

Yeah four locks I assume, then I guess Cole and DeGrom might be on track, then I dunno. Can't see Wainwright, Bumgarner seems to have imploded, Lance Lynn eh, who else?

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah four locks I assume, then I guess Cole and DeGrom might be on track, then I dunno. Can't see Wainwright, Bumgarner seems to have imploded, Lance Lynn eh, who else?

Cole might be get there, but it's a long climb. The two SP's I see with a shot are Sale and DeGrom, and I gotta say Sale's chances are kind of nosediving.

Other than that, there's a couple relievers with a shot, but it's mostly pretty...bleak.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

Cole might be get there, but it's a long climb. The two SP's I see with a shot are Sale and DeGrom, and I gotta say Sale's chances are kind of nosediving.

Other than that, there's a couple relievers with a shot, but it's mostly pretty...bleak.

Sale is a tragic story, I just don't see it.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Sale is a tragic story, I just don't see it.

Yes, like so many others, he was on the path...then his elbow blew up. And he broke his back. Then he broke his finger trying to catch a comebacker. Then he broke his wrist falling off his bike.

Ouch.

[ronniehatesjazz]

I think he’s in without having 3-4 more years like this. He will have 4 top MVPs. 7x AS, likely an MVP, and probably cross 2,000 hits if he just hobbles around for 3 more mediocre seasons. Also, was one of the dominant power hitters of his era, and actually stole some bases as well. The only way he doesn’t get in is if something tragic happens and he’s out of the league in a year or two or something else off the wall (e.g. PED use). I’d also say if he gets the triple crown this year he could retire immediately after and still get in.

[packs]

I'm wondering why you think that though. I don't feel like Goldschmidt has accomplished all that much in his career other than being an above average player.

I do agree that if he manages to win the Triple Crown this season, that makes him an automatic HOFer just by virtue of the accomplishment. I don't see how you keep a borderline guy out after he wins a Triple Crown.

But without the Triple Crown, the MVP award still makes him look an awful lot like Joey Votto to me, and I don't believe Joey Votto is a HOF player. I don't think he was as good as Todd Helton either and I also don't really see a HOFer in Helton.

[RayBShotz]

I believe he's in.
When the era 2010s and 2020s is looked at retrospectively Goldschmidt will stand out.
RayB

[Elberson]

Goldy is no Harold baines but with 3 to 5 more years, I think he’ll make it

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by RayBShotz

I believe he's in.
When the era 2010s and 2020s is looked at retrospectively Goldschmidt will stand out.
RayB

I'm not convinced of this. Trout, Betts, Harper and Altuve come instantly to mind as players who started the same time or slightly later who are better. I think Arenado is probably better. Machado. I would guess two or more of Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr. and Devers will surpass him. Etc.

[packs]

even at his position I still think Joey Votto and Todd Helton were superior players but I also don't think they're HOFers either.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

even at his position I still think Joey Votto and Todd Helton were superior players but I also don't think they're HOFers either.

I don't disagree on the merits but I think Votto will make it because of the whole career with one team thing. And his numbers are pretty good, it wouldn't be a Baines situation.

[packs]

I think Votto has the best chance of all three (unless Goldschmidt grinds out a triple crown). But I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up in Keith Hernandez-like purgatory.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I think Votto has the best chance of all three (unless Goldschmidt grinds out a triple crown). But I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up in Keith Hernandez-like purgatory.

Part of Hernandez' purgatory is drug issues, no?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Honestly, I believe all of them will get in. Votto will get in after a couple years on the ballot. Helton will get in sooner rather than later on the veteran's committee, and I actually think there is enough of a push to get Hernandez in by committee as well. Maybe I'm wrong, but if I were forced to wager, it would be that within 10 years, all three of them will be in.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Part of Hernandez' purgatory is drug issues, no?

Oh, really? I honestly don't know I just know he ran out his time on the ballot but has always been a point of contention.

[Peter_Spaeth]

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...679-story.html

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-...gs-mlb-scandal

I would think like Parker it hurt his chances but I don't know.