Graded vs. Raw Rant.......

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I guess it depends on where and in what you deal. What I have seen on whatnot is that most cards are sold raw, even the more expensive ones, but we are not talking 1933 Goudey Ruths. Also, eBay is a huge raw card market. I run collector grade baseball at $0.99 starting price auctions and some of them get very solid prices. There is always a market for collector grade cards for collectors who work with a budget, even in a recession. When I do shows, the boxes of modestly priced raw cards are what sell consistently. Last show I did was in August and I sold yards of them, literally. I had to go back to the office after first day and reload my sorting boxes because I got cleaned out the first day. You wanna see the perpetually busy tables at the National, look for the pickers' booths.

Great points, and also exemplifies how the hobby is and will continue to be doing well, even should the higher-end, higher-priced graded card market ever suffer and start coming down. The collector base is there, and will continue to be there, for at least quite some time to come.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by BobC

Great points, and also exemplifies how the hobby is and will continue to be doing well, even should the higher-end, higher-priced graded card market ever suffer and start coming down. The collector base is there, and will continue to be there, for at least quite some time to come.

Even in 2008-2009, and that was the worst time I can recall in terms of activity.

[Jenx34]

I'm not sure if my take is unique, but I'll add my thoughts anyway.
On Graded cards
Personally my collection, outside of sets, which I am very limited in, when I buy a raw card it either goes into the pile to be graded or to be sold. I'm talking Vintage. If a card is worthy of keeping (with few exceptions), it should be graded. For preservation, primarily, but not just that. I generally like cards with a certain level of eye appeal and that tends to bottom at around a 4 or higher. Granted, my '53 Topps Paige is a 2.5 and one of my favorite cards, so it's not all black and white. I was always a corners guy so sharp corners and great color were more important than centering. That has begun to shift, but not all the say, so now I find the minimum quality of card I prefer a little higher grade than before. In general, I typically would buy 50's and 60's cards in the 4-6/7 range and 70's in the 6-9 range (more on 70's later)

On Buying Raw Cards
Again, establishing that I am a bit of a condition snob and do plan to get most keepers graded. Most raw cards I find at a show or LCS, and Ebay (separate discussion), are not the quality they are sold as, at least not relative to a graded card scale. My biggest issue is with my eyes. In most places I'm viewing raw cards, the lighting is not proper, there isn't a good background, etc. I carry a handheld magnifying glass, but still it's not the same looking at it as when I'm at home using the proper lighting and tools. Almost every time I get a card home and find flaws I didn't see when buying. By all of the threads/comments I see on various sources, of people complaining about the grades they get from PSA/SGC, I suspect that I am far from the minority in that my eyes can't catch enough in a live situation. So I will buy raw cards, but I am very hesitant and guarded when doing so. I know some don't care if a card is EX vs. NM if it looks good. I'm not wired that way. If I am going to pay NM pricing, I want to know that it is at least that. Too many cards are overpriced, and I suspect more for the reasons above than dishonesty. In general, we all think our cards are better than they probably are. And that's probably the biggest reason grading cards became a thing in the first place. The same reason coins, comic books, etc. are graded. There has to be a way to separate a very nice looking item from an elite item.

On Grading 70's Cards
I believe what most are missing here is the effect of Father Time. 1970's cards are now entering the 50 years old range. While you can find nice EX-EXMT examples, I submit there are FAR fewer examples that would grade in the 7-9 range, especially earlier in the decade). I really believe that buying stars in the 7-9 range right now is a great spot for upcoming growth. Think about it. The 70's are 2 decades behind the 50s and one behind the 60s and have great stars to collect. In 10-20 years from now, people will look back on that decade and remember it fondly and with nostalgia, just as they do the 50's and 60's now. As the OP said, it's easy to find EX+ condition in those cards. But is it really easy to find true NM and above condition and know they'll be kept that way? So I do think 70's graded cards are a good thing, at least in terms of the stars and in higher grades. I also agree that getting a card graded that's EX and gets a 5 probably isn't worth doing. Yet, anyway.

[homerunhitter]

Absolutely wonderful write up Chris. Is was very helpful. You answered a question that I was going to ask so thank you! That question was, was is an "acceptable" grade for topps vintage that most people look for. for 50s, 60s, and 70s, and you broke it down perfectly. now i know how to focus my searching for vintage topps graded cards.

I do find interesting that while searching for a card that I like on ebay, I found one in a psa 4 and one in a psa 6, the interesting part is the psa 4 looked better and had better centering than the psa 6! I was going to buy the psa 6 but then realized that the psa 4 had better eye appeal and coloring!

[Jenx34]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

Absolutely wonderful write up Chris. Is was very helpful. You answered a question that I was going to ask so thank you! That question was, was is an "acceptable" grade for topps vintage that most people look for. for 50s, 60s, and 70s, and you broke it down perfectly. now i know how to focus my searching for vintage topps graded cards.

I do find interesting that while searching for a card that I like on ebay, I found one in a psa 4 and one in a psa 6, the interesting part is the psa 4 looked better and had better centering than the psa 6! I was going to buy the psa 6 but then realized that the psa 4 had better eye appeal and coloring!

I'm going to try not to be as wordy this time. Two things....
1. The biggest caveat I have is to buy what you like, and don't focus on the grade too much. Some people enjoy buying older cards in 1s and 2s because they are affordable and it allows them to buy more cards. Theoretically, you can always upgrade later, so the theory is get in the door and buy a card you want even in a lower grade. But the most important thing is buy what you like. As an investment, it gets a little more cloudy. I think you're good with Star HOF's in most any grade pre-1970s. In the '70's I'd stick to higher grades when possible, but I'm convinced that 20 years from now, PSA 4s and 5s of Pete Rose, Nolan Ryan, George Brett, etc. will be in demand and have value.
2. Cards can earn a grade for a few reasons. It can be one single flaw that lands a card at a certain grade level, or several minor flaws that on their own wouldn't add up to much. Combine that with centering and you can definitely find lower graded cards that look better than a higher graded example. That's why buying the card is so important and making sure you like it. A 70/30 centered card won't look as nice as a 55/45 card when holding it in front of you, assuming there are no major flaws on either surface. But that 70/30 card may have nice crisp corners and little edge wear, whereas the 55/45 could have softer corners and more edge wear. In the end, they may attain the same grade. The key is which looks good to you. To my eyes, 80% of cards look EXMT-NM when held at arms length, which is why I look closer. For me, balancing what a card would grade with eye appeal is the sweet spot. For someone else it may be all about eye appeal or simply about owning that card. To someone else they may be fixated on a possible grade only. There are lots of different flavors and why this hobby is great, because not everyone collects the same way.

[Lucas00]

I only have a few words to say on Graded vs Raw. My philosophy is this,
You can always Break a graded card out. So it doesn't matter if the card is graded or not, I see them as the same thing. Just a fancier Top loader that is sealed

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

You can always Break a graded card out. So it doesn't matter if the card is graded or not, I see them as the same thing. Just a fancier Top loader that is sealed

Exactly. For pretty much this reason, I've never bought the "preservation" argument for grading. A PSA slab does not protect your card more than putting it in a One Touch and sealing that up in a bag. It just doesn't. And even with toploaders and card savers, unless you are just a novice that doesn't know what you are doing - your cards are going to be extremely well protected assuming you don't leave them out in the rain in a shed with a leaky roof or something.

Yes, grading preserves cards, but you don't have to put cards only in holders they can't be taken out of to preserve them either.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

I only have a few words to say on Graded vs Raw. My philosophy is this,
You can always Break a graded card out. So it doesn't matter if the card is graded or not, I see them as the same thing. Just a fancier Top loader that is sealed

Nice to know I'm not the only collector who's had that thought.

[G1911]

Only a crazy person would break a graded card out of a slab.

[rugbymarine]

Originally Posted by G1911

Only a crazy person would break a graded card out of a slab.

That is a great picture!

[homerunhitter]

Good to see that both graded and raw are in demand!

[homerunhitter]

But now hearing that fake graded cards are flooding the hobby now.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

But now hearing that fake graded cards are flooding the hobby now.

Fake or altered?

And just how flooding is flooding?

Certainly there are reports about graded altered cards (with number grades) being ubiquitous. I think there's room to debate precisely how ubiquitous they are. And we each have our theories, which tend to run the gamut.

Graded fakes seem less likely to be flooding in. My sense is it's more of a trickle, at least relative to the overall volume of graded cards.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

But now hearing that fake graded cards are flooding the hobby now.

Could you be more vague?

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

But now hearing that fake graded cards are flooding the hobby now.

Fake cards in genuine holders (the TPG graded a fake)

...or...

Cards in fake holders (someone manufactured a counterfeit slab)?


EDITED to add: I'm asking the group, not just the anonymous user who apparently spotted some flooding.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Eric72

Fake cards in genuine holders (the TPG graded a fake)

...or...

Cards in fake holders (someone manufactured a counterfeit slab)?


EDITED to add: I'm asking the group, not just the anonymous user who apparently spotted some flooding.

I think we've seen some cards in counterfeit slabs. Probably not enough to constitute flooding. But it's certainly not zero.

I thought I heard somewhere that some goons were running around with their own supply of slabs and a machine for making it happen.

From what I've seen, the cards they snuck into those slabs, when closely inspected, suggested that there was clearly a problem. Cards that should grade at maybe a 5, but were in a 9 slab, etc. Before one of the TPG haters suggests that even the genuine ones experience this overgrading phenomenon, my experience is that such an extreme outcome is a real outlier.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

I think we've seen some cards in counterfeit slabs. Probably not enough to constitute flooding. But it's certainly not zero.

I thought I heard somewhere that some goons were running around with their own supply of slabs and a machine for making it happen.

From what I've seen, the cards they snuck into those slabs, when closely inspected, suggested that there was clearly a problem. Cards that should grade at maybe a 5, but were in a 9 slab, etc. Before one of the TPG haters suggests that even the genuine ones experience this overgrading phenomenon, my experience is that such an extreme outcome is a real outlier.

Yes there are several posts on this forum about "Copperfield" and his scam out of Mexico, including one about a recent arrest of a guy in Denver. I helped out a guy who bought what was almost certainly one of these cards out of a Goodwin auction. As I discovered, it had the same cert as a completely different and clearly legit card with the same grade, and obviously Copperfield had replicated the cert on an inferior card. To our shock, PSA blessed the card and put it in a new cert. A true WTF moment.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I helped out a guy who bought what was almost certainly one of these cards out of a Goodwin auction. As I discovered, it had the same cert as a completely different and clearly legit card with the same grade, and obviously Copperfield had replicated the cert on an inferior card. To our shock, PSA blessed the card and put it in a new cert. A true WTF moment.

The last part seems pretty nuts. Maybe they assumed some sort of database entry problem, and just went on their merry way with processing it into a new cert? Even if that were the case, I would expect they would look at those a bit more closely for these types of shenanigans.

[homerunhitter]

weekend bump!

[homerunhitter]

here is a question that I saw on another message board.

for those that like graded vintage, do you prefer PSA or SGC?

[Exhibitman]

Whichever is cheaper if the cards are comparable. As a collector, it is a blondes or brunettes question.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by homerunhitter

here is a question that I saw on another message board.

for those that like graded vintage, do you prefer PSA or SGC?

I'm fine with either. To me, the card inside the holder is the important thing.

I'm typically buying cards in the $50-$500 range, if that data makes a difference.