Infuriating or Other Predictions for the 2023 Baseball Season and Cards

[jethrod3]

I was thinking about some things that really disappointed me during the 2022 MLB season, and how they will probably disappoint me again during the upcoming season. Some of these may or may not influence the values of cards of different players in the near-future and long-term.

My infuriating prediction is that we will see even more single-pitcher no-hitters broken up by managers pulling their starter due to pitch counts. Never mind that their team may be ahead by several runs, and never mind that the pitcher is still pitching masterfully and will still get at least 4 days of rest. Once you've reached X-number of pitches, you gotta hit the showers!

I hope that this does not come true, but I predict that Shohei Ohtani will flirt with a no-hitter, but will be pulled after 8 1/3 innings after issuing his 3rd walk of the night. Thankfully, this won't influence the value of his rookie cards. However, after completing his best season on the mound and raising his batting average significantly over last year, another MVP award certainly will influence their values!

[packs]

My predictions on the season:

AL ROY - Anthony Volpe
NL ROY - Corbin Carroll

AL MVP - Aaron Judge
NL MVP - Trea Turner

AL CY - Dylan Cease
NL CY - Julio Urias

My prediction on cards:

Unopened hobby and jumbo boxes continue to be irrationally priced. I saw yesterday that 2023 Bowman jumbo boxes are $400 but there are 100 prospects meaning you'll spend $400 for a one percent chance of hitting any one player.

[jethrod3]

Originally Posted by packs

My prediction on cards:
Unopened hobby and jumbo boxes continue to be irrationally priced. I saw yesterday that 2023 Bowman jumbo boxes are $400 but there are 100 prospects meaning you'll spend $400 for a one percent chance of hitting any one player.

I agree it's gotten crazy. I still like to build sets, but I'm sure card companies won't mourn the fact that they've therefore largely priced me out of the hobby such that I now choose one sport and just build about 1 set per year. The best products for me are the ones where I can complete a base set after buying 2-3 boxes that have a couple of hits and surprises and aren't outrageously priced.

[todeen]

The first signs of a full "hard-landing" recession will be evident by September, after continued banking difficulties, dried up credit lines, and another interest rate hike. Inflation will still not be under control. Right now it's a white-collar recession among tech employees. If this continues, we will witness the beginning of an exodus from sports cards by Christmas, and next years card production numbers will be trimmed because breakers are ordering fewer cases since those with the deepest pockets are prioritizing their budgets.

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[packs]

Originally Posted by todeen

The first signs of a full "hard-landing" recession will be evident by September, after continued banking difficulties, dried up credit lines, and another interest rate hike. Inflation will still not be under control. Right now it's a white-collar recession among tech employees. If this continues, we will witness the beginning of an exodus from sports cards by Christmas, and next years card production numbers will be trimmed because breakers are ordering fewer cases since those with the deepest pockets are prioritizing their budgets.

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I don't think so. If anything, having less disposable income will only drive people to breaking. You spend $30 or $40 at a time breaking and you don't realize that you've participated in 10 breaks over the last 4 days because you only spent $40 at a time, which always seems manageable.

Especially when the alternative is paying $400 upfront for a box yourself. Things even out in the end if you buy into a million breaks, but breakers count on you not noticing that.