PSA 9 52 Topps Mantle sells for $5.2M

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by Fred

Mind boggling - over 1400 graded by PSA (9 cards that are graded 9 or higher). That doesn't include the SGC graded cards.

Over $5M for that card? Where does that put the PSA 8 Wagner?

I think I could have found a better way to waste that much money. Perhaps a few million bucks to Jeff Bezo's GoFundMe page when he was getting divorced...

Could you imagine if someone like Bezo's got a bug up his ass to collect nothing but the most popular highest graded stuff. He'd beat down every bidder and then the prices would look even more inflated than they are now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJNVKj13R-Q

Chew on this video and let it digest. Specifically, minutes 16:25 - 17:45. The entire video is informative but watch specifically the times above. And don't discount this guy - he owns and has owned some great cards in our hobby.

[Popcorn]

Originally Posted by CJinPA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJNVKj13R-Q

Chew on this video and let it digest. Specifically, minutes 16:25 - 17:45. The entire video is informative but watch specifically the times above. And don't discount this guy - he owns and has owned some great cards in our hobby.

I see it on Twitter and it amazing. Cards are literally positions now.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by CJinPA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJNVKj13R-Q

Chew on this video and let it digest. Specifically, minutes 16:25 - 17:45. The entire video is informative but watch specifically the times above. And don't discount this guy - he owns and has owned some great cards in our hobby.

I heard the word "manipulation" somewhere just past the 17:45 mark. Pretty crazy stuff. What the guy seems to be saying is that rich people are playing this game. What happens when these rich guys get bored and find out that not everybody is going to play this game. For now, it's pretty sad to see this occur because those people are screwing up a hobby for the average Joe hobbyist. Now if average Joe hobbyist bought a ton of stuff a few years back and sells it now, then average Joe can make a few bucks and hope for the bubble to burst so average Joe can buy it back on the cheap.

[Republicaninmass]

I've found it's easy for kids to say " that's before my time" to discredit something that should be known in popular culture. IE Mr Ed posted in a another thread. It was before I was born, but I know it's a talking horse

"The cards market, unlike the stock market can be manipulated. This is why money people are saying "Im getting into cards'"

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by Fred

I heard the word "manipulation" somewhere just past the 17:45 mark. Pretty crazy stuff. What the guy seems to be saying is that rich people are playing this game. What happens when these rich guys get bored and find out that not everybody is going to play this game. For now, it's pretty sad to see this occur because those people are screwing up a hobby for the average Joe hobbyist. Now if average Joe hobbyist bought a ton of stuff a few years back and sells it now, then average Joe can make a few bucks and hope for the bubble to burst so average Joe can buy it back on the cheap.

What's most interesting to me is that, for example, the 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA10 is not rare (unless your definition of rare is 312). It
s surely an iconic card and that certainly has value, but there are 7,700+ PSA8's for goodness sake! Mantle? 3 PSA 10's, 6 9's and 35 8's.....

SO I agree with you on the 'manipulation' - I'd hate to be holding the bag is those Jordan's go up to 400K (...and I know I risk this not aging well)..... just making the comparison, anyway!

[Republicaninmass]

I just look at auction houses (goldin) and when I see 36 jordan RCs in ONE auction, I shake my head. I mean Ken should just go back on the home shopping network and peddle these "investments" to grandmas for their grandkids future

Look what the last peak in the 80s did for modern cards. Now the little 1/1 stamp has sucked in a new generation. Many, like myself "invested" in those peak years 87- 91 and saw our fiti6re 401k plan leave in a uhaul for a pittance. Quite a few of those young collectors never returned to the hobby, and I honestly hope the same doesnt happen this time.

[Exhibitman]

I think another factor in pricing on elite cards is securitization taking out the risk inherent in holding a vastly appreciated card. Collectable offered an IPO of a 1986-87 Fleer basketball wax box, fully funding the offering in minutes at $139,650. Shares were priced at $25 each. The owner of the box retained $44,750 in equity (24%), putting the full value of the box that likely contains at least three Michael Jordan rookie cards at $183,750. New investors who are only in for the price of a bad dinner each can afford to wait and see what the future brings; a single guy holding a vastly appreciated card maybe cannot. Take the pressure off the original owner to sell the item and you reduce supply, hence increase demand on the remainder. Collectors who can afford an elite card then will either have to wait (which none of us are particularly good at; we are all Smeagol-Collectors: "we must have the precious") or chase what is left out there. Some will downgrade and pressure prices on lesser cards, which will ripple across and down the hobby until there is price pressure all across the board. I think this mentality has something to do with why lower grade examples of key cards are rising so fast. A sale like this Mantle sale generates a wave of FOMO across the board and across the chat boards.

In some ways the pressure towards treating cards as investments tracks where collecting life has gone in two respects:

1. Modern collectors are used to this aspect of new card issues. Topps already follows an IPO model for releasing new cards via its online platform and Topps Now programs. You buy a 'share' of the IPO by buying a card or a set without knowing what the total population of the card might be hence how rare it might be. For example (for those who don't know how this works), I signed up for the Topps Now 2020 Dodgers postseason team set: 10 cards plus a bonus card for each round of the playoffs the team made it through (since they won the WS I get 14 cards total; the 14th card shipped last week, finally). A total of 378 fans did so. The 'float' on the base team sets is 378, and there are randomly inserted signed short prints of varying degrees. So collectors of modern cards are already used to a model that mimics a stock IPO and that has price rises and falls much like an IPO.

2. The internet has changed collecting immeasurably for us old farts. I've often said and heard it said that we don't really collect cards, we collect scans of cards. My best cards are buried in a safe deposit box; all I have on hand are the scans. In fact, I haven't seen the actual cards since April because of COVID lockdowns. Is it that far removed from this model of collecting to sell the actual card and keep the scans?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I think another factor in pricing on elite cards is securitization taking out the risk inherent in holding a vastly appreciated card. Collectable offered an IPO of a 1986-87 Fleer basketball wax box, fully funding the offering in minutes at $139,650. Shares were priced at $25 each. The owner of the box retained $44,750 in equity (24%), putting the full value of the box that likely contains at least three Michael Jordan rookie cards at $183,750. New investors who are only in for the price of a bad dinner each can afford to wait and see what the future brings; a single guy holding a vastly appreciated card maybe cannot. Take the pressure off the original owner to sell the item and you reduce supply, hence increase demand on the remainder. Collectors who can afford an elite card then will either have to wait (which none of us are particularly good at; we are all Smeagol-Collectors: "we must have the precious") or chase what is left out there. Some will downgrade and pressure prices on lesser cards, which will ripple across and down the hobby until there is price pressure all across the board. I think this mentality has something to do with why lower grade examples of key cards are rising so fast. A sale like this Mantle sale generates a wave of FOMO across the board and across the chat boards.

In some ways the pressure towards treating cards as investments tracks where collecting life has gone in two respects:

1. Modern collectors are used to this aspect of new card issues. Topps already follows an IPO model for releasing new cards via its online platform and Topps Now programs. You buy a 'share' of the IPO by buying a card or a set without knowing what the total population of the card might be hence how rare it might be. For example (for those who don't know how this works), I signed up for the Topps Now 2020 Dodgers postseason team set: 10 cards plus a bonus card for each round of the playoffs the team made it through (since they won the WS I get 14 cards total; the 14th card shipped last week, finally). A total of 378 fans did so. The 'float' on the base team sets is 378, and there are randomly inserted signed short prints of varying degrees. So collectors of modern cards are already used to a model that mimics a stock IPO and that has price rises and falls much like an IPO.

2. The internet has changed collecting immeasurably for us old farts. I've often said and heard it said that we don't really collect cards, we collect scans of cards. My best cards are buried in a safe deposit box; all I have on hand are the scans. In fact, I haven't seen the actual cards since April because of COVID lockdowns. Is it that far removed from this model of collecting to sell the actual card and keep the scans?

Point number 2, is just I've never thought of it like that until you said it. I haven't been able to transfer some of my cards over to a safety deposit box yet, but it's very true. Once they're in the box, I'll merely be looking at the scans rather than the actual cards itself. It's kinda sad in a way.