The Next 100K Card

[dstraate]

Reading other member's posts about "the one that got away" piqued my interest. Since I grew up in a time that produced no (read:NO) cards that will ever be worth 100K, I'd like to know what you all think will be the cards to reach the 100K plateau in the next 15 years.

Larry set the parameters as a card that is significant, rare, and in great condition. I don't really have anything to add, not even a guess as to which card it may be, but I wanted to learn a bit more about the hidden gems in our hobby.

[deadballera]

didn't a Old Judge from the California League sell for $100K last year ?

[AndyG09]

Originally Posted by deadballera

didn't a Old Judge from the California League sell for $100K last year ?

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/auction/2010/1.html

Best,

Andy

[Blunder19]

I think 15 years from now the t206 Plank will be consistently going for 80K-100K

just my 2 cents
Jamie

[bbcard1]

I would agree with Plank. I have always thought it was the toughest of the big three. I think there will be outliers from time to time, but I don't think it will mean anything really.

[mintacular]

Do you think rare backs could ever be part of this discussion or are back collectors too much of a niche crowd?

[philliesphan]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Do you think rare backs could ever be part of this discussion or are back collectors too much of a niche crowd?

I don't see any chance for rare backs to ever approach such levels. Even the Ty Cobb back (which likely isn't even a T206...) has only recently breached those levels, and there is a finite number of them known.

Rare backs will always have a following -- but they will never be $100K cards. Even the hardest of the hard -- Uzit, Drum, BL 460, etc. are still found regularly, and if they breached $10K on a regular basis, I am sure that you would see many coming out of the wordwork.

There is an algorithm, I'm sure, that keeps prices of rare back in relative check with the rest of set. Sure, I absolutely love my T206 rare backs, but even with the humble collection I have, I'm sure it would go a long way to purchasing an entire T206 set (less the Big 4). There is a ratio there that I think will always stay in relative balance.

[glchen]

Is the T206 Doyle (NY Nat'l) already past 100K? If not, I think this card will hit the mark because it's so rare. I also think the T210 Jackson will also go past 100K if it hasn't already.

[g_vezina_c55]

Originally Posted by Blunder19

I think 15 years from now the t206 Plank will be consistently going for 80K-100K

just my 2 cents
Jamie

i hope i hope

[Leon]

Before the several recent ones on the market, and the way they have escalated in price, I almost would have thought the 1869 Peck and Snyder trade card could be one. It still could be but I think it will take quite a bit longer now, if ever. Of course I am biased and have a vested interest...but I really have thought it was one that could get there due to its iconic status in the hobby. Nice subject for a thread.....also, maybe a very high grade '51 Mantle might get there (if it hasn't already).

(no posts then 4 posts in 4 consecutive minutes )

[CMIZ5290]

Didn't the only psa 10 1953 topps mantle bring almost $300k?

[CMIZ5290]

If anyone was ever lucky enough to get a t206 green cobb in a psa 9 holder, you certainly would have a 6 figure card!

[brian1961]

'Tis a grand topic to kick around, even if I'm late to the kicking. The next card to reach a value of one hundred thousand dollars, whatever it finally is, will have to be something very special. Many of the replies have been pre-WWII, natch. I shall take a contrarian view, and select a postwar gem.

I believe the next 100K card should be one currently offered in Robert Edward Auctions. It is lot #853, the 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle in PSA 7 NEAR MINT. That card has enough compelling qualities to easily rate six figures. In fact, I believe it is worth well-ascending six figures, but I doubt at this moment there will be many who would take me seriously. I cannot blame them. If they only knew what I know about that card, they would vehemently agree with me.

Most collectors view the ultimate Mickey Mantle card as the 1952 Topps. I shall not say one derogatory thing about that fabulous card. It is indeed a dream card for many. However, here's the thing: when you ask what is going to be the next 100K, most of us are not going to be in the thin crowd that would go bonkers bidding that kind of money. A collector with that kind of dough to "blow" likely ALREADY has a nice '52 Topps Mick in his collection. What almost all of the high-end collectors do not own is a high-grade Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle, a very rare bird indeed.

Several years ago, I asked that grand ol' dealer, David Festberg, about the Stahl-Meyers. He replied, "oh, they're around." What he did not say was that they are around PSA/SGC Poor with a qualifier, Poor, or Fair. It is pretty hard to work up a lot of excitement for a card that usually comes pretty creased, stained on one or even both sides, and has a factory date code stamped on the front of the card, hopefully not on the player's face. You can find several of them on eBay, where they have sat listed for months on end. Where the highly regarded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle has been written about and portrayed in the media many dozens of times, the Stahl-Meyers have not been featured even once in a hobby periodical.

It took me several years, but I wrote a three-part feature article on a trio of tough Mantles for Sports Collectors Digest. I submitted it in January of 2009. They seemed to like it. The first segment, on a 1962 JELL-O unfolded box of Mantle, appeared in SCD's National issue. The second covered the very elegant 1960 Post Cereal Mantle card that looks like an early 1900s cabinet, and appeared in SCD's first issue of 2010. The third segment was on the 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle. Albeitly, it was a long article, but I put a lot of worthwhile information and fun into it. For some reason, it never ran while T. S. O'Connell was the editor. I like T. S. though; I'm sure he had his reasons.

As beautiful as the Stahl-Meyers are, however, one might wonder why they have not been trumpeted. I found many did not know much about them. Even more revealing, those who did know did not wish to discuss what they knew. Most of these people were other collectors. Take a moment or two and reflect upon why they wished to remained closed mouth about them.

Then again, how often has the 1914 Baltimore News cards been written about? It was not even "discovered" until about the mid-1980s. Most collectors only care about one of Jack Dunn's babes anyway, a youngster named George Ruth. That Ruth has already reached, what was it, 517K? To be sure, those cards are by no means mainstream. A beautiful pre-war regional.

There are numerous arguments (discussions) sometimes over mainstream versus regionals. They're both important, of course. When it comes to values, sometimes I wonder if a lot of people would not know a diamond if they held it in their hand. But that statement smacks of "you must collect as I collect", and that is not what I am trying to project at all.

I really do not want to cause a disturbance here, but allow me to use another collectible hobby to illustrate. Most car nuts dream of having a beautifully restored 55 or 57 Chevy or a late 60s Camaro. Yet at a major auction such as Barratt-Jackson, when an all-American dream machine concept car gets rolled to the platform, the crowd begins to gush, "look at that car", "what IS that?!", "I've only seen a picture of that once in a book or magazine". Then a small group of newer bidders start to push the bid to one million, then 2, 2.5, and 3 million dollars and more! It can get just as wild for a vintage Ferrari or Alfa-Romeo, particularly if it was raced by a legendary driver, or won a great race.

Let's go back to The Great Depression for a moment. One of the cars that still brings high dollars are the exotic Duesenbergs. I have been to the wonderful Auburn-Cord-Duesenberg Museum in Auburn, Indiana. They have several key examples of Duesenberg's marvelous craftsmanship. Beside each car is a placard with the date and model of the car, as well as the original price. You would be amazed at the price Duesenberg charged for some of its exotic masterpieces, anywhere from twelve to a little over fifteen thousand dollars! During the 1933 World's Fair in Chicago, at the same time as the first baseball All-Star game, the featured exhibit at the car pavillion was a Duesenberg with a body by Rollston. It was called the Rollston Twenty Grand. To think during this wretched horrible time in our country's history, several hundred people were able to and did spend 12K to 20K for a car, when the typical sedan ran about a grand, give or take a few hundred. Though the Depression eventually took down the company, some of the greatest cars in our country's history were built during some of the roughest years. None of these were mainstream cars. Maybe that's a reason why a Duesenberg was and still is so highly sought.

To the point, mainstream trading cards are like Fords, Chevys, and Chryslers. Topps test issues and rare regionals are like Duesenbergs, one-of-one concept cars, and very rare racing Ferraris. Of course, Ferraris and Duesenbergs have been written about since the day they were made. Regionals and test issues are tough to research and write about, especially when most people will not divulge what they know.

I must backpeddle a bit. By and large, the rare regionals are undervalued, but some have hit some pretty high numbers already. Let me just end where I began and say that the next card to hit one hundred thousand dollars should be that fabulous 1954 Stahl-Meyer Franks Mickey Mantle in PSA 7. What a display piece. What a crowd stopper. What a conversation piece.

I know I could be accused of having a genuine conflict of interest since I do own one of those Mantles. Mine is very, very nice. It is also three full grades below this one. At least I know what I am talking about, and I think I've owned mine longer than the consignor of the one in REA. They are indeed fascinating cards. Wish I could fight to upgrade mine, but I'm quite content with the one I have. Mine moves me very deeply every time I look at it. No doubt it was tough for the consignor to part with that card.

More than enough said. Sorry. Brian Powell

[ls7plus]

Very, very thoughtful, interesting post, Brian. I do believe time will ultimately prove you're right on items like truly rare and significant regionals (after all, the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth and MANY of the M101 Ruth rookies--with various, non-blank backs--are regionals), and some of the better, rarer Topps test issues. Some key unique or near-so and significant Topps proofs might get there too! From a dollar standpoint, we might not want to be so narrow-minded as to limit our considerations to pre-war cards.

Plus I think I know how you feel about your Mantle--I probably feel the same way about my raw, NMt '53-'55 Dormand, bat on shoulder Mantle (just a gorgeous card, and a tough one in high-grade), and '55 Exhibit Postcard Back SGC EX+ Mantle (don't think there are many of these out there, in any grade).

Best of luck in your collecting,

Larry

[drdduet]

My guess is the subject's last name will be Ruth, and the card will be a pre-1930 issue. The Sporting News Ruth, while already having sold >100K, will more than likely routinely sell in the six figures in excellent or better condition. Other Ruth's like Honey Boy, Collins-McCarthey, etc will likely get there as well--just need to see a few more sales of these in decent condition to get to that level. Any good looking period Ruth will appreciate like gold and/or silver.

[ls7plus]

'23 Lections Ruth or Hornsby? Extremely rare, and not likely to change in that respect, given their origin. Condition is generally a big drawback, although that hasn't held the 1914 Baltimore News Babe or W600 Georgia Peach back (yes, I know these are first cards!). And it seems like I saw a high grade Hornsby out there relatively recently.

Thoughts?

Larry