How Are Grading Cos. Going to Survive?

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Posted By: peter chao

A lot of the pre-war vintage stuff has already been graded. A lot of the shiny new stuff has been so carefully manufactured that grading is unnecessary. So in 5 to 10 years the grading cos. will have little to grade. As a hobbyist, what do the grading cos. need to do in order to stay in business?

Peter C.

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

EDIT: never mind. Sorry.

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Posted By: Kevin Saucier

Ditto Al.

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Posted By: Al Simeone

Ha made you look Peter!
Oh and by the way YAWN. 2 smiley faces you choose them!

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Posted By: Tom Boblitt

you sure you don't mean Sean instead of YAWN.......?

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

C'mon guys...give it a rest please.

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Posted By: howard

Grow up, you guys. If you don't like the post (or, more likely, the poster) then ignore it. Good grief!

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Posted By: davidcycle

Modern cards are graded. If collectors decide to grade 1988 Topps, that's five years of full employment for PSA right there.

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Posted By: Al Simeone

Tom,
Your right! I dont know what came over me! I guess it was the excitement of this post. Im all a tingle!!

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

original post deleted because the old post makes no sense after people completely edit out their original comments.

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Posted By: howard

Can this thread be locked? I have no problem with the intended subject but it was immediately hijacked and most of the responses seem beyond the pale.

Howard

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Posted By: leon

It's not really that bad of a question. I don't know the answer but the more cards that get graded, especially pre-war, the less are left to grade.

Peter- do yourself, me, and the rest of the board a favor....for the next few weeks you might think about only starting card related threads....This should get everyone off of your back....except Jeff ....he is your proverbial "monkey on your back" ....oh, and maybe Peter S. too...

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Posted By: howard

Good post Leon.

Come on guys, Leon thinks the thread is okay. Let's see you ridicule him like you do Peter C.

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Posted By: JK

I echo David's thoughts - there seems to be no shortage of collectors of the shiney stuff who want to get their cards graded. While the cards may be made to exacting standards, the search for the "elusive" 10 (and the financial windfall that accompanies it for some cards) will result in no shortage of gradeable material. As for vintage cards, there is obviously only a limited quantity of authentic stuff. However, there is no shortage of reprints and unaltered cards - they will continue to be sold raw and passed off as real. Further, while there may be a limited quantity of vintage, I doubt we are anywhere near approaching 100% graded. Once we are at that point, there will always be the crossovers and regrades to keep the graders busy.

Lastly, and perhaps a more interesting question, if the graders were to all run out of gradeable material and go out of business, would it matter as far as our niche? What I mean is, lets assume all vintage cards are someday graded by one of the reputable grading companies. If they all went out of business, would the value of the cards previously graded suffer? I dont mean to start a bashing thread here, but I think if values suffered at all (and Im not sure they would) psa's would suffer the most for the same reason they now claim value superiority - the absence of the registry would result in more losses for psa graded cards than those graded by sgc or gai. This also assumes that a better product doesnt take the place of the grading companies and that any "good will" created by psa, sgc and gai remains in our collective knowledge (in other words, we dont forget why the cards were graded and what it signifies - to most).

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

One bad thing about the edit feature on this board is that now my post makes absolutely no sense after David completely changed his post.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Hey! There are lots of new cards to grade! People trying to build PSA 10 sets from the post 1990 era--you are only ho-hum if you have a psa 9 set from 1990-2007 but an all 10 set is really cool!

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Jim, how plausible is it to get an all 10 set of a post 1990 set? IOW how often does PSA give out 10's on newer cards?

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Posted By: MVSNYC

Dan, Howard, etc...

i try to never attack anyone personally, but everyone including Leon has politely told Peter to post less O/T threads...he even posted a question asking if he posted too much, and an overwhelming majority of the board told him, "yes you do"...so what does he do?, he proceeds to start several more O/T threads...doesn't make sense to others and myself...

as far as his question...there are far more raw cards than graded on this planet, and eventually they will be handed-down, sold or traded...so in theory, there will be a constant influx of raw cards to grading companies...as well as baseballs, autographed photos, etc...

edited to add my screen name

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Posted By: sagard

There are all PSA 10 sets from 1989 Score Football, 1990 Leaf Baseball, 1993 Finest Refractors and I'm sure there are others. Plus I would venture that the grading companies do at least twenty times the post war vs. prewar to begin with.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Dan,

As Sagard says not only is it plausible but its been done several times.

PSA 10s are not that unusual for modern cards.

Not my cup of tea to pay multiples of a 9 for a modern 10 but to each his own.

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Posted By: Marc S.

I saw that PSA recently added a 1980s Topps "Super Set", which presumably includes all the Topps cards that were produced in the 1980s. That alone is worthy of nearly ten thousand submissions. You get thirty-three Crandell types trying to complete it in PSA 8 or better, thrown in a Spence or Ireland, and you have a business model that should be sustainable for at least a decade or two.



(as if there was any doubt...but PSA's Registry did recently add such a Super-Set)

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Posted By: Steve

They'll survive just fine due to the Registries. Worried a bit about Global however.

http://www.psacard.com/set_registry/registry_news.chtml

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Posted By: Al C.risafulli

I did not edit my post because I wanted to be disrespectful to Peter. I edited my post because the post itself could have been viewed as disrespectful.

My feeling - and the tone of my original post - is that there are still plenty of cards left to grade, and drawing the conclusion that the grading companies are going to run out of material in 5 to 10 years is based on nothing but gut feeling, and one that I feel is off base.

My own gut feeling is that there is no danger of grading companies running out of material in anywhere near that amount of time, and that by the time it truly is an issue, grading companies will have expanded their product offerings to include many other items that are not currently being graded.

-Al

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Posted By: howard

MVS, not everyone told Peter this in a polite manner. many posters were deliberately obnoxious and had been well before this came to a head. In any case, it seems to me that Peter did eventually heed the advice and until today had not posted for quite a while. Furthermore, as grading is an important part of vintage collecting, this post is not o/t and yet he still got hit with rude responses (two of which have been deleted).

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Al, I wasn't referring to your post. I never even saw it before you deleted it....I was referring to David Rudd's where he compared Peter to Sean...after he completely edited his entire post out and changed it, it made my post nonsensical to where I had to at that point delete mine as well.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Didn't Sean get banned for being inadvertently obnoxious?

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Posted By: peter chao

Guys,

I'll admit it, I deserved the flak I got for the No. of O/T posts I made. I knew I was out of bounds. But I didn't think I deserved, Jeff L. and Peter S. hounding me. Then it became a battle of egos and that's not good for anybody. I'm trying to shape up so give me a chance.

Card grading is the focus of their business. Going into other areas of memorabilia would be a dead end. Each year the card manufacturers produce better quality cards.

Just look at this year's Allen and Ginter cards, there's almost no reason to get these cards graded. A whole stack of these cards toppled over on my hobby room rug and none of the corners got dinged. The cards are beautiful and centered. There's no reason to get them graded.

Eventually this will also happen for Topps base set. When that happens there will be less for the grading cos. to do.

People do not grade '80s and '90s stuff because it is barely worth grading.

Peter C.

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Posted By: davidcycle

I did compare Pete's and Sean's questions, as they are much alike. A few good questions mixed in with a lot of filler questions. For example, this thread's question is moot, as its stated basis in fact is incorrect-- that no one grades modern cards. It's a non-question, as my dad would say, referring to questions that are worded or premised so that they are unanswerable even when all facts are known.

I'm clarifying rather than criticizing. As stated, I feel a number of Pete's questions have been good topics for discussion.

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Posted By: Al Simeone

Howard,
Just for the record I think you need to go to the memorabilia side of the posting and read that Pearl "An Offshoot of the First Amendment The Freedom To Post" Before you tell us to grow up.
Second this post is about How are grading Cos. Going to survive I just read all 4 of your posts here and NOT ONE OF THEM has anything to do with this posting. All they deal with is telling us to stop picking on peter. Peter C. himself admits that the FLACK is well deserved and is trying to change! Peter just for the record I like you WELL YOU KNOW!!! But change? You are very far from that!

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Posted By: peter chao

Okay, how about this question? Is this a topic that is related to pre-war vintage cards?

Peter C.

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Posted By: leon

You know me pretty well and know (as everyone does) that I try my hardest to be neutral on all issues while trying to maintain the focus of the board and have some harmony. Not always an easy task (actually never an easy task ). To answer your question. "no", Sean didn't get banned for off topic posts, inadvertantly posted. He got banned (for a period of time) because he didn't do as I asked him to do (in formal warnings). I hate to sound like that but that is they way it was...If I have to warn someone about something and they keep doing it then I will ban them. I have no choice or this place will be total anarchy. Thank God it's only happened a few times as I really hate to do it....Some folks say it's no big deal to ban someone but to me it is a big deal. I can't help the way I feel. I do think this particular thread is on topic, though I do wish Peter C would concentrate on more card things than other things....but this one is fine to me...and most others...and is a question I have asked many times. One last thing...I saw someone say something like "well, Leon doesn't think it's off topic so ......" Guys, it's very well known that my vote counts as "1" in the big picture. Since the very second I took over moderating the board I have never said anything about anyone posting a question about a pre-war baseball card.. It's really not that difficult to participate on this forum. It's also self policing for the most part...though sometimes there might be a tad too much of it.....best regards

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Peter, if you think my criticism of you is a 'battle of the egos' you're more far gone than I had previously thought. What you're doing, plain and simple, is continuing to post your idiocy in order to show the rest of us that you will continue to post no matter the outcry against you. You can pin the 'hounding' on Peter S and myself but as we all know it is nearly every poster on the board that has had enough of this mindless drivel.

I also don't appreciate what I see as your constant attempts to generate pity used as a weapon against the rest of the board. What a bizarre personality trait.

The fact is, I don't hate you in any way. I just have a very low tolerance for this sort of annoying, passive-aggressive behavior. The truth is Sean got the shaft compared to how you are treated; I suppose it is easier for grownups to discipline a child than it is to discipline a grown man, which many feel is unseemly.

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Posted By: Paul S

Well, if there ever comes a time when the grading companies find themselves grading less and less cards, they'll just jack up the price several times per-card-graded. Imagine that T206 mid-grade common costing you more to grade than to buy.

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Posted By: Joann

"I'll admit it, I deserved the flak I got for the No. of O/T posts I made. I knew I was out of bounds. But I didn't think I deserved, Jeff L. and Peter S. hounding me. Then it became a battle of egos and that's not good for anybody. I'm trying to shape up so give me a chance."

OK Peter. Clean slate. If you are genuinely rethinking your posting habits based on general acclaim here, I am more than willing to start new.

But I am a little skeptical, and hope you can understand why people here have you on such a short leash and are all in such short temper about it. Why it may take some of us a little while to calm down and cut you a break.

Here is a medly of recent posts:

10/14: Give me a break. I know that some of my posts are a little silly, but I'm just trying to give people more topics to choose from. I get tired of all the arguments about grading, the auction houses, and outing an E-Bay auction.

Also, I post a lot of new topics, some of them are bound to be silly.


10/15: On the memorabilia end there should be a strong committment to the first amendment. People can post on anything remotely connected to memorabilia.


10/16: Come on guys...just admit it you've become the establishment. I'm just here to liven things up.


10/17: For the time being the Establishment has won and we continue to plod along.


10/20: On the main board, there is a thread started by Lee Behrens about the direction of our forum. It looks like the Establishment is starting to worry and the Resistence Movement is getting stronger...hurrah for the First Amendment.


10/21: Remember, change is good, without people willing to change there would be no internet.


All of these, both individually and collectively, tell us that you are fully aware that your posts have been silly sometimes and that you were intentionally posting in quantity, not quality. They scream that you are dissatisfied with the tenor and focus of the board, as established by participants, and of your determination to behave however you want regardless of what anyone else thinks. You have, over the past week or so, brazenly and even mockingly given a lot of people here the big "FU!" and suggested that you will not stop.

This is what has brought some of us to this.

But I will tell you that if the first quote above is genuine and it does get better, I will be the first one to give you all the credit and high regard in the world. Sean occasionally posts here now, and I enjoy responding to him as he has dialed down his tone substantially during his return. So ... just as you say you can change, I will say that I'll do everything I can to reset my thinking and give you every opportunity - letting the past be in the past as long as it stays there.

Joann

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Posted By: Brian Collie

I have a feeling a few of you were picked on a lot as little kids. By god, get a life. I feel like I'm reading a board populated by a bunch of guys like the Comic Book Guy from the Simpsons (i.e., someone who knows a lot about something that means very little in the big scheme of things and looks down on people who don't have similar knowledge). All Peter is trying to do is create some interesting topics for people to talk about - his most recent one actually being a very interesting question for those with a passing knowledge of economics and supply/demand. If you don't like his posts, why then do you waste time reading them? You're like the little kid who knows not to touch the hot stove but can't help from doing it over and over and over and over and over and over again. Remind me again, who is the idiot????

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Brian, if you'd read Peter's threads you wouldn't need reminding.

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Posted By: Brian Collie

over and over and over and over ....

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Posted By: Joann

Brian,

Your comments, in order of appearance:

1) Nope. Not really picked on as a kid.

2) Have a life. Too much of one sometimes.

3) Know a lot about something meaningless. Maybe. Look down on others? No.

4) Peter is trying to create interesting topics. Not his job, not asked for, and in many cases not appreciated. This has come up in other threads.

5) Interesting economic question. Well, yes to the part about passing knowledge. In context, this topic got less slack being from Peter than it would have from others. But as Jeff said, the totality of all posts lately makes the reason for the lower tolerance more clear.

6) Why do you waste time reading them? Well, first because sometimes they are sprinkled here and there among other threads and are unavoidable. In cases where he started threads, it was to see if there was any sign at all that this might be coming to some resolution.

7) Remind me again, who is the idiot???? Thanks, but I'll pass on that invitation.

OK. I'm getting way too involved in this whole thing. It's making me crazy. I am hoping that Peter's comments upthread are genuine, and that this all blows over in the next week or so.

Joann

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Posted By: Al Simeone

Thanks Joann!!
My fingers were starting to get a little tired!! Im glad you stated it all so well!!!!

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Posted By: Brian McQueen

I'll list a few things that I think will keep them in business -

All postwar issues....50s through present. Keep in mind that even when discussing stuff from the 50s...there is just SOOOOO much of it in some cases that I'd think they'll have plenty of cards to grade for a long time to come

Cards from other sports. Prewar football, boxing and hockey just to name a few

Coins - a rapidly growing market

autographs - see "Coins"

Comic books - always popular

Even role-playing card games are now being graded. I was on PSA's site just yesterday and noticed that Magic the Gathering cards are now being slabbed. I used to love playing that game.....

There are probably other totally different areas that they haven't expanded into yet (or have they???). Bottlecaps....license plates?? Seems silly, but you never know what they'll do to increase revenue and get a leg up on their competition.

-Brian

PS...are they grading tickets yet??

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Posted By: E, Daniel

that sometime in the next 5 years, one or all of the grading companies will introduce computer software assisted grading that will completely recalibrate the grading system. I'm predicting a 1-100 point scale, perhaps broken up into 5 catagories instead of 4, that will rely on a scanned image of the card to undergo minute and exacting examination, one that will put to bed the notion of which grader looked at the card and what side of the bed they got up on.
Then, slowly all cards graded under the old systems will be encouraged to be re-graded because of greater prices achieved under the new flip/slab combinations.
That takes care of the next 25 years I would think.


Daniel

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Posted By: Mark Evans

I share Brian Collie's view that the Board has been overly harsh on Peter. And, I'm baffled by the feuds. So, he posts more O/T and marginal threads than he should. Some of the threads engender substantive discussion, so somebody thinks they are worthy. As to the others, they can be readily ignored. Frankly, I admire Peter's good spirit and humor in the face of such criticism. Mark

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Posted By: peter chao

Mark,

Thanks a lot for the kind words. And Joanne, I don't mind your criticism at all, I think it's very fair and well reasoned. I expect you to do very well when you get out of law school.

I would not be surprised if there will be greater utilization of grading programs by the grading cos.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Kevin Saucier

If anything Peter is entertaining...most of the time. Seems to be good natured and certainly not one that attacks.

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Posted By: keystone cop

I think this is a good and relevant question.
I think they will survive based on a combination of shiny stuff, commons, crackouts, and finds. Probably there will only be two companies left and one will be essentially a niche company.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Peter S--did you change your name because people were getting you confused with the other Peter?

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Posted By: peter chao

I suppose Peter S. changed his name because I called him and Jeff L. Keystone Cops...it's all fun guys, let's not take it all too seriously.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Mike

This is just starting in coins and might happen in cards. A separte grading company is grading the grade. It will put stickers on the slab. Sticker will grade the grade. So, an eight could have a sticker saying superior for the grade or even a number for the grade. Sounds like fun

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Posted By: JimCrandell

I didn't know that--Kevin Saucier business model.

I think it will catch on with graded cards. I know I would bid on a graded card without hesitation if it had Kevin's seal of approval. Without it, I am unlikely to touch it.

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

Jim, have you stopped buying graded cards then?