Production Estimates / Print Run Archive

[homerunderby]

Take this info for what its worth but its from some research I did awhile back.

1975 Topps: 380,000 sets (Source: Beckett 3 estimate published 1981)
1979 Topps: 315,000 sets (Source: Beckett 3 estimate published 1981)
1991 Donruss: 5mm sets (Estimate from extrapolating from print run of Elite, average number of cases for the hit)
1992 Donruss: 5mm sets (see above)

[JUrsaner]

Originally Posted by homerunderby

Take this info for what its worth but its from some research I did awhile back.

1975 Topps: 380,000 sets (Source: Beckett 3 estimate published 1981)
1979 Topps: 315,000 sets (Source: Beckett 3 estimate published 1981)
1991 Donruss: 5mm sets (Estimate from extrapolating from print run of Elite, average number of cases for the hit)
1992 Donruss: 5mm sets (see above)

Hadn't seen this comment, but tried to incorporate into ranges. I'd calculated closer to 2m sets for 1992 Donruss extrapolated from the Elite print run - although have read 1992 production was reduced from prior years

The 2 million estimate is essentially equivalent to 1:1.5x case odds for Elite (excl. legend/signature series)
1 case = 20 boxes
1 box = 36 packs
1 pack = 15 cards

1 case = 20 boxes = 720 packs = 10,800 cards
1 Elite = 1.5x case odds = 16,200
10x Player Elite Set /10,000 = 100,000 Elite Cards = ~1.6b cards
792-card set (including Series 2 "bonus cards") = /2,000,000+ per card

[insidethewrapper]

1994 Studio : Total 8,000/20 box cases = 160,000 boxes
6,000 Hobby and 2,000 Retail

35% reduction from 1993 Studio

1993 Studio : Estimated 12,500 /20 box cases = 250,000 boxes

[JUrsaner]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

1994 Studio : Total 8,000/20 box cases = 160,000 boxes
6,000 Hobby and 2,000 Retail

35% reduction from 1993 Studio

1993 Studio : Estimated 12,500 /20 box cases = 250,000 boxes

I love the Silver and Gold stars series. Traded for a silver Juan Gonzalez - was my first ever "serial numbered" card

[homerunderby]

Originally Posted by JUrsaner

Hadn't seen this comment, but tried to incorporate into ranges. I'd calculated closer to 2m sets for 1992 Donruss extrapolated from the Elite print run - although have read 1992 production was reduced from prior years

The 2 million estimate is essentially equivalent to 1:1.5x case odds for Elite (excl. legend/signature series)
1 case = 20 boxes
1 box = 36 packs
1 pack = 15 cards

1 case = 20 boxes = 720 packs = 10,800 cards
1 Elite = 1.5x case odds = 16,200
10x Player Elite Set /10,000 = 100,000 Elite Cards = ~1.6b cards
792-card set (including Series 2 "bonus cards") = /2,000,000+ per card

It all depends on the odds for the Elite, this article claims 1 Elite for every 75 boxes, which I think is closer to the truth. I didn't keep the worksheet for the math but I think this article is what I based it on. I guess you have to figure in the number of factory sets also, which I guestimate at about 100k-200k. https://baseballcardpedia.nfshost.co...sertion_Ratios

The article on 1992 Donruss at Baseballcardpedia notes that it is believed that Elite came 1:55 boxes, which jibes with the lower production runs claimed.

Another thing to think about is were there retail returns and how many? Were a large amount of the returns destroyed? Cases of this stuff was available in the mid-late 90's for $20 in any kind of quantity. We'll never know exactly.

[JUrsaner]

Odds were never stated, but odds of 1:55 boxes would be close to 1:2000 packs. Take almost 3 cases per Elite? I've never pulled one, so just guessing, but that seems higher than observed odds from most people who have done multiple case breaks, etc.

Agree that there are a lot of variables. The factory sets is something I hadn't thought much about. Bigger question for me is how much has been "consumed" by kids / the hobby over the past 25-30 years. For instance, I know that I threw away almost all of my base cards from the late 1980s-1990s after my parents sold their house - and very few of them were in gem mint condition anyway. I'd imagine a huge number of cards have had similar fate - although not enough to make a big enough dent in production figures

[homerunderby]

Who knows ultimately. It's my opinion that the BaseballCardPedia numbers are pretty close. Problem with case breaks is that you would have to break 50-100 cases to even get an educated guess on the ratio of Elite.

Anyway I reran the numbers based on the BaseballCardPedia numbers. In 1991 you would effectively get 55 sets per Elite, in 1992 I guessed about 35-40 per Elite.

That gave me a number close to 5mm of each 1991 and 4.2mm of each 1992. There are a lot of variables I don't know, like rack packs, cello packs, factory sets, etc, but it sounds right that 1992 Donruss have a lower (but still ridiculously high) print run than 1991.