Please Help Me Make Some Sense Of It

[SyrNy1960]

My mind can't wrap around these insane prices that graded cards are selling for. It's not like grading is a new thing. And I'm not talking just about graded 10 cards. 6's, 7's, and 8's are selling for big $$$. For the sellers, it's great. For they buyers, not so much. I don't see these prices holding up down the line when it comes time to sell. One guy said, "people are investing in cards to protect their assets, because inflation is so high and no end in sight. I think this will keep driving good cards higher and higher with demand."

Did I fall asleep and wake up in an episode of the Twilight Zone?

Thanks! Tony

[jingram058]

You are in the same boat as me, Tony. I bought my cards, the ones I actually purchased 20 to 25 years ago, to re-build my collection from when I was a kid. I bought them, and other memorabilia for a fraction of what they go for today. So that was my 2nd era of collecting. I got back in about a year ago, when I traded some of dupes, and that got me going on my now complete 53 Bowman set. I was shocked at what had happened. Seems like everything pre-1980 had risen crazy. But pre-war and 1950s-60s cards were exponential. And then Ruth, Mantle, DiMaggio, Cobb and all the others were out of sight, and a select few would make you a millionaire. Now those same few cards will make you a multi-millionaire. Unbelievable but true. Alas, though, only if they are graded, as there are some unbelievable fakes out there, too. None of mine are graded, so while I have some desirable cards, I will just continue to enjoy them as a hobby. The regular posters on the main forum of net54, the pre-war page, are primarily card investors, not regular card hobbyists. I post comments from time to time, but it's all about big money investment for the most part. Occasionally they notice my posts, if I make some extreme comment. But I am not in that league.

[whitehse]

It’s crazy. I completed a popular vintage set with the Hofers all in mid-grades and the rest bring raw. I sold some of the graded Hofers for many multiples of what I paid for them. Hopefully I can eventually go back and purchase raw examples to fill in my set. I could not pass up finally making huge money on my hobby after all these years. It was a no brainer for me.

[ooo-ribay]

I think it’s not just graded cards. I’m about ready to say “enough.” I’ve got plenty of stuff and could stop collecting right now. I could afford to still be in the mix but choose not to be. I’m not sure everyone is making wise “investments”….

[egri]

For my signed 1953 Topps project, I used to think Satchell Paige was overpriced at anything above $1,200. I passed on a whole bunch of them at the time because I figured I could always pick him up later. Now he routinely sells for over $3,000, and occasionally over $4,000. Jackie Robinson I'm glad I already have, because those have been fetching around $10,000 lately. I was talking to another member about it recently, and there's no way I could start the project today, unless I either inherited a great deal of the set or won the lottery. For someone like Mantle, I may need to live with that hole in my set for a while.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by egri

For my signed 1953 Topps project, I used to think Satchell Paige was overpriced at anything above $1,200. I passed on a whole bunch of them at the time because I figured I could always pick him up later. Now he routinely sells for over $3,000, and occasionally over $4,000. Jackie Robinson I'm glad I already have, because those have been fetching around $10,000 lately. I was talking to another member about it recently, and there's no way I could start the project today, unless I either inherited a great deal of the set or won the lottery. For someone like Mantle, I may need to live with that hole in my set for a while.

I'll have hit a financial wall with my Mantle Career Run, once I eventually pick up the 1953 Topps, which hopefully in a few months will not have jumped significantly. But I went from "I can one day afford the 52 If I save up properly" to "The only way I afford it is if I hit lotto"

I try not to let the money interfere with the enjoyment I have in the hobby. I plan on collecting a long time so it's not too much of an issue. I can't definitively say what the card market will look like 5,10,20 or 30 years from now. But looking at the state of things right now, it's a little upsetting I'll have a hole in my collection. But you never know what might happen!

[egri]

Originally Posted by Seven

I'll have hit a financial wall with my Mantle Career Run, once I eventually pick up the 1953 Topps, which hopefully in a few months will not have jumped significantly. But I went from "I can one day afford the 52 If I save up properly" to "The only way I afford it is if I hit lotto"

I try not to let the money interfere with the enjoyment I have in the hobby. I plan on collecting a long time so it's not too much of an issue. I can't definitively say what the card market will look like 5,10,20 or 30 years from now. But looking at the state of things right now, it's a little upsetting I'll have a hole in my collection. But you never know what might happen!

I thought I was priced out of Campanella, but then another member here turned up one a few months ago and we were able to reach a deal. I've noticed as I've entered a holding pattern on the project, I've been spending a lot more time with the cards I sent out TTM a few years ago, and dedicating more time to a few side projects that aren't as capital-intensive.

[mrreality68]

My un- educated thought on this is that

A lot of new Money is coming in from people or organizations that are looking to diversify their investments and think collectibles specifically cards in this case are are big opportunity and they read about it.

But since they are uneducated in the baseball collectible realm they rely on things they can quantify and analyze.

So they see graded cards as that means since they can research what past cards in different grades went for and bid/buy accordingly. And as things trend up they can determine/guess what they think the upward trend is and bid in that trend range

Takes away from the collectors and makes it harder to collect what we want but it also increase the value of what we have prior the upwards trends and allows mean to hold or to flip it make a profit and do with that as we like

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

My in educated thought on this is that

A lot of new Money is coming in from people or organizations that are looking to diversify their investments and think collectibles specifically cards in this case are are big opportunity and they read about it.

But since they are uneducated in the baseball collectible realm they rely on things they can quantify and analyze.

So they see graded cards as that means since they can research what past cards in different grades went for and bid/buy accordingly. And as things trend up they can determine/guess what they think the upward trend is and bid in that trend range

Takes away from the collectors and makes it harder to collect what we want but it also increase the value of what we have prior the upwards trends and allows mean to hold or to flip it make a profit and do with that as we like

I think you're right as rain. But it kind of sucks all the fun out of it, doesn't it? It's like everything else in society, all about the money. I've personally got enough money. Unlike Han Solo, I'm in it for the fun.

So yeah, I'll just like and admire the raw cards and other stuff I have, put some of it away in the safe deposit box, and periodically get some that are new (to me) from time to time.

[SyrNy1960]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

My in educated thought on this is that

A lot of new Money is coming in from people or organizations that are looking to diversify their investments and think collectibles specifically cards in this case are are big opportunity and they read about it.

But since they are uneducated in the baseball collectible realm they rely on things they can quantify and analyze.

I do believe I read something similar to what you've stated. That the pandemic kept people and their money (for those who have a lot of it) at home, so many spent a lot of time online, investing, hence the craziness. I also heard that promoting and maybe even a lot of price fixing is going on. Not sure. But I do agree it takes the fun out of it. Many things that were in my reach are now only a dream.

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by 3arod13

I do believe I read something similar to what you've stated. That the pandemic kept people and their money (for those who have a lot of it) at home, so many spent a lot of time online, investing, hence the craziness. I also heard that promoting and maybe even a lot of price fixing is going on. Not sure. But I do agree it takes the fun out of it. Many things that were in my reach are now only a dream.

I suppose you could put cards and memorabilia in your “portfolio” but that doesn’t seem the best way to go (to me). I’ll stick with my financial advisor and my traditional investments.

[Ron]

If u are a collector that is in the hobby for the fun of it and you collect cards,
there are a lot of vintage food issue or premium issue or regional issues you can collect and it would be just as fun as collecting the standard issue cards and probably a lot less expensive

[packs]

I still don't understand where this idea that people are "investing" in cards comes from. Do any of you know one single person who has never thought twice about baseball cards who is now buying things like 1953 Topps Satchel Paige cards? I highly doubt that you do because that would be such a weird way to invest.

Prices are high because of a faux market created by a big seller who is no longer in the market on a particularly popular auction site. I anticipate prices coming way down in the very near future. Hold tight.

[ooo-ribay]

Originally Posted by packs

Prices are high because of a faux market created by a big seller who is no longer in the market on a particularly popular auction site. I anticipate prices coming way down in the very near future. Hold tight.

[packs]

Some big sales of popular cards have come into question. When a 10 sells for huge money it has a domino effect on the card in all grades and that effect creates a basis for future prices. It doesn't have to be a 10 either. It could be any popular card in any grade. When a card hits a new price point it sets the price point for the next card. But if there was no initial buyer then the price point is artificial. I think that tide is evening out. I'm predicting prices come back down because that activity has come into question and markets have come into question too. Like the market for Jordan rookie cards, for example.

[ooo-ribay]

I think people are really out of their minds paying what they’ve paying for Trouts, Bradys, Kobes, etc…..but what do I know?

[SyrNy1960]

Originally Posted by ooo-ribay

I think people are really out of their minds paying what they’ve paying for Trouts, Bradys, Kobes, etc…..but what do I know?

You know a lot! Because down the line, they will never maintain those values or even be worth half the amount they're paying today. Simply insane!

[Leon]

Anyone in the hobby today has to be looking at the prices and amount shelled out as some kind of investment. After selling my first collection, when I had all cards and almost no money, it is much easier now. The money being spent is an investment, like it or not. And I am a collector at heart but don't begrudge any flippers or dealers. They have great stuff sometimes. One board member many, many years ago, professed he doesn't collect any of this stuff, he collects greenbacks.

.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I explain it this way. During the real estate boom, not too long ago, condos in Florida were selling rapidly and at ever higher prices. You'd buy a condo, wait a month and flip it for profit. Eventually the people who wanted to LIVE in the condos were priced out. Then, when the market crashed, the price had to come back down to the level that people who wanted to actually use the condo could afford.

[Carter08]

Although I don’t have a lot of it I’m new money into the hobby. I collected now-worthless junk as a kid in the 80s and 90s (and loved it) and always had it in the back of my mind to get back into the hobby. Pandemic boredom got me back in. So I’ve paid really high prices for things like an Aaron rookie 4. That’s about my level of card. What I’m wondering and maybe hoping is all the renewed interest keeps prices somewhat stable on vintage cards like that. I love the cards so I’m sort of ok with a crash and would just buy more if it does. I will say that every time it feels like there’s a softening a card ends at auction strong and puts that thought to bed for me at least temporarily. Although I’m not in it for the money by any means a crash would make me a bit sad overall and make me question some life decisions lol.

If the market starts to slide and anyone wants to unload a bunch of 48 Leafs hit me up!!!

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Leon

Anyone in the hobby today has to be looking at the prices and amount shelled out as some kind of investment. After selling my first collection, when I had all cards and almost no money, it is much easier now. The money being spent is an investment, like it or not. And I am a collector at heart but don't begrudge any flippers or dealers. They have great stuff sometimes. One board member many, many years ago, professed he doesn't collect any of this stuff, he collects greenbacks.

.

Cards are now assets, not collections. It is just the state of the hobby.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Leon

Anyone in the hobby today has to be looking at the prices and amount shelled out as some kind of investment. After selling my first collection, when I had all cards and almost no money, it is much easier now. The money being spent is an investment, like it or not. And I am a collector at heart but don't begrudge any flippers or dealers. They have great stuff sometimes. One board member many, many years ago, professed he doesn't collect any of this stuff, he collects greenbacks.

.

I guess I will have to get some of my stuff graded at some point. My wife and daughter are well aware of that, and what I have. I don't have a lot, but some of it is worth serious money, Ruthian stuff at the top of the list. You are right. Some of these things make me an investor by default. But I am truly not in it for that.

[egri]

I don't know that people are investing in the sense that they've done a thorough analysis of the fundamentals of the card market in general and specific cards in particular and all of the other research that typically goes into an investment, but I'm sure they are investing with the belief that past returns are indicative of future performance.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Leon

Anyone in the hobby today has to be looking at the prices and amount shelled out as some kind of investment. After selling my first collection, when I had all cards and almost no money, it is much easier now. The money being spent is an investment, like it or not. And I am a collector at heart but don't begrudge any flippers or dealers. They have great stuff sometimes. One board member many, many years ago, professed he doesn't collect any of this stuff, he collects greenbacks.

.

Yeah, but

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by egri

I thought I was priced out of Campanella, but then another member here turned up one a few months ago and we were able to reach a deal. I've noticed as I've entered a holding pattern on the project, I've been spending a lot more time with the cards I sent out TTM a few years ago, and dedicating more time to a few side projects that aren't as capital-intensive.

Remember that dude if you ever see a signed 1952 topps!

A little good will goes a long way

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by egri

I don't know that people are investing in the sense that they've done a thorough analysis of the fundamentals of the card market in general and specific cards in particular and all of the other research that typically goes into an investment, but I'm sure they are investing with the belief that past returns are indicative of future performance.

Vintage

Many many many long term people are now bailing

A few new people are coming in


Modern

Seems many are bailing. Goldin has an auction every month. Even other auctions, think it was lelands has 300 modern lots. I cant ever remember seeing modern cards auctions in such droves.


People are buying I guess, I just cant rationalize it. Seems an awful lot like 1990 "you just cant lose " methodology

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by 3arod13

My mind can't wrap around these insane prices that graded cards are selling for. It's not like grading is a new thing. And I'm not talking just about graded 10 cards. 6's, 7's, and 8's are selling for big $$$. For the sellers, it's great. For they buyers, not so much. I don't see these prices holding up down the line when it comes time to sell. One guy said, "people are investing in cards to protect their assets, because inflation is so high and no end in sight. I think this will keep driving good cards higher and higher with demand."

Did I fall asleep and wake up in an episode of the Twilight Zone?

Thanks! Tony

Yeah, it looks like you've been asleep for the past two years cause' this subject has been discussed a million times on here!

[SyrNy1960]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Yeah, it looks like you've been asleep for the past two years cause' this subject has been discussed a million times on here!

Yeah, I have been! Mainly a Gamed Used Memorabilia Collector. When GAMEUSEDUNIVERSE became a ghost town, I drifted off to sleep. Finding NET54 got me back looking at the card side again. Thanks! ��

[glchen]

I've had a hard time wrapping my mind around the huge increases in prices for a lot of cards, but I've finally come around to it. It is what it is. Basically, this is the new reality. The fact is inflation is running around 5%, and the stock market had done exceedingly well in the last year. Many folks have much more in savings than pre-pandemic, so you figured that you can now buy all of those cards that you wanted in the past but had no money for. Now you have the money. However, the problem is that the card prices have gone up even more than your savings has, so you're back to the beginning, perhaps even worse off comparatively. Life goes on.

[Yoda]

Whether it is quantitative easing, the Treasury buying up fresh Gov't bonds, Covid relief packages, the huge deficit, there is a massive amount of cash floating around the country and, as a result, I feel the U.S. dollar is being debased.
One prop for the $ has always been that international commodity contracts are denominated in our currency, eg. gold and oil. If that arrangement is somehow changed, and it would be hard to do so, there would be a run on the dollar, benefiting those holding foreign currencies, Yen, Euros etc. Inflation would also hit hard, affecting all of us.
I operate mainly as a wholesaler for the AH's. My buying side over the last 1.5 years has been practically non-existent due to prices. I feel I am fighting against other bidders on Ebay who either don't know what they are doing or are these mysterious cartels. Perhaps autographs are a realistic alternative, although the top ones are, like cards, rising quickly. Just look at Satch.

[Jewish-collector]

Other hobbies like photography, gardening, computer gaming, playing sports, etc,... are more about techniques and skill rather than money. There are some expenses to them of course, but not to the degree of as this hobby has become. We low end collectors need to find other aspects of this great hobby that gives us happiness enjoyment, and fulfillment.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by egri

I don't know that people are investing in the sense that they've done a thorough analysis of the fundamentals of the card market in general and specific cards in particular and all of the other research that typically goes into an investment, but I'm sure they are investing with the belief that past returns are indicative of future performance.

I very much view my collection as an investment. Yet it is also very much a collection and I am very much a collector.

I am 47 years old. I have collected off and on since I was 6. My brother and I sold our first collection in 1993 (at a card show). I sold my second collection in 2001-02 to pay for school debt. Sometime in the early 2010's, I took my family to a Chantilly Show (VA) to meet John Elway. There were cards everywhere and I immediately became nostalgic. I spent much of the day walking around looking at cards and it was very clear to me that prices of all the cards I had sold in 2000 were higher-to-significantly higher in the present day. This made sense, since cards I collected in the late 80's were worth more in the late 90's when I put my second collection together.

Around 2015, I started making excess money and I had to decide where to "invest" it. I do not like the stock market (although I own stock), and I am heavily invested in real estate, so I was looking for something else. Knowing, from first hand experience, that the good cards have consistently increased in value from the 1980's to the 2010's, I thought cards could be a sound investment. PLUS, I love cards and I understand them. So unlike stock, this could be an investment I could enjoy and feel I have some control over. So, in 2015 I bought the first card of my 3rd collection - a T206 Cy Young throwing, which has sentimental value for me.

Then I bought the Mantles, Clementes, Aarons, Mays, Robinsons, etc -- all the big boy cards of the early 1950's - as well as Brady and Manning rookies, a Gretzky rookie and a few other more recent cards. I figured these were the best investments. BUT, my love is in the T206 era, and eventually I sold all that stuff (way too early) and started collecting -- yes collecting -- prewar. But, I do view cards assets, so I decided to collect that cards I felt were the most likely to retain value and/or go up. So I jumped into T206 (specifically rare backs HOFers), Wagner, Ruth, Joe Jackson, and rare and iconic cards from the 1900-1922.

I do back runs and back sets. I love talking cards and going to shows. I have made many friends in this "hobby" and I often "overpay" for things because I need them or want them for my collection. But I am very mindful that my collection is, in fact, a substantial asset and that is very much in mind when I buy a card. I am a collector and an investor, and I suspect many on this board are the same.

I am thrilled with the recent increase in prices. Sure, it makes buying things tougher, but my net worth has increased a lot bc of cards, and that is a very healthy spoonful of sugar to take with the bitter pill that is me having to pay way up for some cards I need/want. As a collector, who does not currently need the money, I hope my collection becomes my kids' problem when I am gone (in 40 years). But its great to know that if I need money, I am a few cardboard sales away from having that money.

Cards have ALWAYS been an investment; at least since I started collecting in 1983. Cards cost real money back then and people bought and sold them for profit. That is no different today. The numbers are just larger today. There is a lot of new money in the hobby, but new money has always been coming into the hobby. While I agree that the current situation is a little more inflamed and significant, its nothing new. Since at least the 1980's cards have been an asset and people have invested in them, and that will not change.

As for Packs' declaration that the market will fall out - I strongly disagree with respect to blue chip, prewar cards. There are a finite number of these cards, the scarcity/rarity is real (not manufactured), the players are long gone and their legacies set in stone, and they are names that transcend the sport: Ruth, Cobb, Jackson, Robinson, Mantle, Young, Wagner (mostly bc of T206), Aaron, Koufax. These names are Americana, not just prodigious hitters or pitchers. They have awards or candy bars named after them, there are movies and books about them, they are part of folklore, etc. Most importantly, this is the 5th decade that I have witnessed (1980-2020) where their cards are selling for more than the decade before. That is a great track record and one that I will invest in all day long.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

As for Packs' declaration that the market will fall out - I strongly disagree with respect to blue chip, prewar cards. There are a finite number of these cards, the scarcity/rarity is real (not manufactured), the players are long gone and their legacies set in stone, and they are names that transcend the sport: Ruth, Cobb, Jackson, Robinson, Mantle, Young, Wagner (mostly bc of T206), Aaron, Koufax. These names are Americana, not just prodigious hitters or pitchers. They have awards or candy bars named after them, there are movies and books about them, they are part of folklore, etc. Most importantly, this is the 5th decade that I have witnessed (1980-2020) where their cards are selling for more than the decade before. That is a great track record and one that I will invest in all day long.

I pretty much agree with this, and its why I think the current hobby is sort of really misaligned.

With the exception of Mike Trout, it seems insane to look at most all of the current MLB players, especially those under 30, and pay anything close to a huge premium for them. For the price you have to pay for a Tatis 1st Bowman auto, the price assumes hes going to become an all time great, a top 50ish player. It is kind of hard to assume any current player will do that until they have 10+ years of sustained performance. Even Trout is a good example, he has really struggled to stay healthy the last few years. He is going to go down as an all time great, but there is a lot of room between him already being HoF worthy, and him being in the same HoF ring as Mantle or Mays.

Nothing is going to happen to Ty Cobb or Matty or Cy Young at this point to change their legacies, and there are a finite number of their cards available. There is almost no world in which the price of a Red Cobb will decrease in the next 10 years, unless civilization literally falls apart.

A PSA 5 Red Cobb in a P350 back sold for $13,000 a few days ago. 2 years ago it sold for $5900. And I bet 5 years before that, it sold for about $2500. The growth may not be exponential like that in 2 years time, but unless someone discovers a box of thousands of pristine Red Cobbs in the future, the supply is not going to increase, but the demand likely will.

[obcbobd]

As a collector, the large increase in cards I would like to buy has a been a disappointment. As much as I'd love to see a market crash to prices 30 years ago, I realize it is not going to happen anytime soon. I enjoy the cards I bought ages ago (33-34 Goudey sets, some pre-war) and work on less expensive sets - finishing the Topps/Bowman runs (minus a few biggies). Heck I just started the Reneta Glasso All Time Greats set at a quarter a card. Maybe someday I'll be able to talk myself into the big $ cards I need to finish a few sets, but for now I'll hit the $1 boxes and a few $50-200 cards here and there.