How to put cash value on cards

[Vintage Vern]

that don't come up for sale often? Other than the often sold high value cards, the value guides are worthless IMO, at least for rare uncommon cards. So how do you put a value on something that isn't anything more than an obscure common player that rarely sells at AH or EBay that many people have no interest in. It seems if I find a card it always has a premium price for a common player. So how should I approach this? I basically have 2 options over pay or never aquire a card. Is there any way to reach middle ground? Also how do people track AH for rare uncommon players. Is there a simple way to track a certain player at all AH? I'll just kick this out for an example. PSA says card value is $53.00 the seller wants way more $400.00, but I have little resources with sales recently for guidelines to counter offer. The other issue is these don't come up very often yet still don't have the value. So how do I play the game?

[NiceDocter]

Just a suggestion…. make an offer of what you think is fair based on any or no information that you have. Worst case the seller says no…. or maybe you meet somewhere in between. Just be respectful and unemotional about it…. sometimes you can make a deal and sometimes you can’t. It never pays to be negative about the cards ( oh those are in really poor condition, I can get those anytime for less, etc) Again, be respectful, don’t be afraid to make a reasonable offer….. don’t overpay if you can’t reach a deal, there’s always another card and another deal tomorrow!

[GeoPoto]

You really have to trap your own data, if you want to be confident that you have a real handle on (recent) historical pricing. Keep a spread sheet of any items you bid on or watch and what they sell for. In the early days, you either have to mostly watch or plunge in and risk some amount of "overpaying" and/or "coming up short". Assume anything listed BIN/BO is listed at 2-3 times what the seller thinks it is worth. In auctions, assume that the high bid 24 hours before closing is 2/3 what the "market" thinks it is worth.

[x2drich2000]

If it is truly rare, as you describe, throw whatever PSA or whatever guide you are using out the window. What makes PSA or whatever guide the all knowing dictator of what something is worth and what it should sell for? The question really is just what is it worth to you. Are you willing to spend $400 for the card? If that is the only one you've seen, then its up to you to decide if it is worth getting or not. If it is buy it. If not, you'll need to keep looking which maybe for years or decades.

[Vintage Vern]

Thanks for the replies so far. My problem is length of time between seeing any that sell. I might be able to pull up a card that sold a year ago or ten years ago, but have little between those time frames. I know the seller he will sit on it for years. The issue is if I will capture another for sale. When you only collect 1 player, and they only have about 7 total cards 2 being almost impossible to track down it changes my approach. The E120 in question has a decent population, but still not easy to find, and many are sitting in a registry that aren't for sale. There's little to go off of for raw cards to even know the real total of cards. I have no issue to buy more than 1 of the same if I can get a higher grade or nicer card. This card is a PSA 4 the highest is a 5. I might be able to trade or I may just have to find a 5 then I can sell the lesser card. My other issue is set collectors don't like to sell so it makes it even harder to get low pop cards most under 10 total graded.

[Leon]

I agree on the pricing. It's best to get your own data.
As a rare-type-card collector valuation is one of the most difficult things. Many times I have bought cards with no comps in the last 10+ yrs. At that point it's just how much am I willing to pay. I would rather overpay, than not ever own a card, in a lot of circumstances. Of course, generally, things need to be close.

I am absolutely sure I overpaid for these (shown many times). But the alternative was letting them possibly go to auction and having 2-3 deep pocket collectors go after them. I get a lot of satisfaction out of seeing them in my collection, so even if I ever lose money on them it's still worth it to me. But then again, I love cards more than investing. I try not to make it a habit of overpaying but I am sure it will happen again....and probably soon. And sometimes I will have a card, sell it, and make a few bucks so it's all good.

E221s.

[Vintage Vern]

The last one PSA has listed for sale at auction sold for $25.00 was a PSA 5 grade. Doesn’t list the year sold. I think one sold on ebay same grade might have been the same card have no way to tell because it's gone from ebay sold too long ago to find but, it went for $149.00. I didn't see it listed before it sold or I would have gladly bought it.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by Leon

I agree on the pricing. It's best to get your own data.
As a rare-type-card collector valuation is one of the most difficult things. Many times I have bought cards with no comps in the last 10+ yrs. At that point it's just how much am I willing to pay. I would rather overpay, than not ever own a card, in a lot of circumstances. Of course, generally, things need to be close.

I am absolutely sure I overpaid for these (shown many times). But the alternative was letting them possibly go to auction and having 2-3 deep pocket collectors go after them. I get a lot of satisfaction out of seeing them in my collection, so even if I ever lose money on them it's still worth it to me. But then again, I love cards more than investing. I try not to make it a habit of over overpaying but I am sure it will happen again....and probably soon. And sometimes I will have a card and make a few bucks so it's all good.

E221s.

I'm buying them for me, not as a investment for profit, but an investment to bring it back home. My kids may sell them for profit, but I'm buying them for display at our local city hall. Anything I purchase goes on display. I live in a small town of at best 140 people. We had 2 locals that made names for themselves. The first being Verne James Clemons who played most notably for the St Louis Cardinals the 2nd Sherwood "Sherb" Dick Noble who opened the first Dairy Queen.

[EddieP]

You could do what they do on the Antiques Road Show: they use the last known price and date that the item was sold and plug the numbers in an inflation calculator.

[x2drich2000]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

The last one PSA has listed for sale at auction sold for $25.00 was a PSA 5 grade. Doesn’t list the year sold. I think one sold on ebay same grade might have been the same card have no way to tell because it's gone from ebay sold too long ago to find but, it went for $149.00. I didn't see it listed before it sold or I would have gladly bought it.

Here's a scan of the one that sold on Ebay for $149 in Jan 2021. If you look through cardtarget.com even though it is no longer active there are a number that have sold (mostly raw) over the years. Most were under $50. The one in Jan 2021 is the highest by a good margin. Even the SGC 84/7 that sold in 2015 only sold for $125.

[BobC]

When you are looking for rare players/cards, you also have to remember that even if there aren't a lot (or any) recent sales you can look at for comparisons, that doesn't mean private sales aren't going on behind the scenes that don't normally get reported anywhere. In which case you may also need to expand your your contacts and where/how you look for such cards. Always just going to a mainstream site like Ebay, or the major auction houses that are out there may not yield you the opportunities you want. In which case, coming to a forum like this, and posting what you are looking for on the B/S/T forum, may generate some contacts and opportunities you would not otherwise come across.

Take Leon's story for example, where he says he paid up so the previous owner wouldn't put those items into a public auction. Or even closer to home, you can go to our own B/S/T forum and see members making private sales, or even trades, for certain rare and unusual cards/players. Those kinds of sales and trades normally don't get reported anywhere.

Plus, you also have to be careful that there aren't people out there trying to manipulate the market on some cards. It is fairly well known that on occasions, we have witnessed some rather obvious fake sales on platforms like Ebay, that then get reported on some valuation sites, and make it look like certain cards are currently going for way more than they should be.

Bottom line, as others have opined, is to offer what you feel comfortable with paying. Absent ongoing and numerous sales comps to view and go off of, that is the best you can do when it comes to rare and obscure cards. Good luck.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by x2drich2000

Here's a scan of the one that sold on Ebay for $149 in Jan 2021. If you look through cardtarget.com even though it is no longer active there are a number that have sold (mostly raw) over the years. Most were under $50. The one in Jan 2021 is the highest by a good margin. Even the SGC 84/7 that sold in 2015 only sold for $125.

Thanks a million for this info. I just offered 200 and no dice. I think I will just let one come to me.

[UKCardGuy]

Another way to assess the potential current value is to use other comparable cards from the same set. If there are other similarly hard to find cards from the same set then you have data from those salws too.

I tend to compare the sales history of similar cards and then make an adjustment foe geneeal cards price changes since those sales.

Its not perfect and It doesn't completely solve your problem because the seller might not agree with your logic. But for me it helps me to assess what i think a fair price is.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Another way to assess the potential current value is to use other comparable cards from the same set. If there are other similarly hard to find cards from the same set then you have data from those salws too.

I tend to compare the sales history of similar cards and then make an adjustment foe geneeal cards price changes since those sales.

Its not perfect and It doesn't completely solve your problem because the seller might not agree with your logic. But for me it helps me to assess what i think a fair price is.

Yep I tried to look at that somewhat as well. I offered him 200 said no dice they're in high demand and he wouldn't even take 250 if I offered that. Said they're in higher demand then a lesser pop Williards chocolate v100 I just bought for less with a higher grade. It sucks, but sometimes I guess you just have to pass.

[Vintage Vern]

Would anyone here pay more than $200 for a PSA 4 Vern Clemons E120? I think he wants 275 to 300. He has it listed much higher than others he has listed with same grade for some reason. Has it set at 400.

[ullmandds]

Sometimes if you want a rare card… A card with very few comps, but rarely comes up for sale.… You just have to bend over and take it like a man!!!

[jamest206]

Or get very lucky on the price! I am pretty sure I overpaid for a T206 Lundgren, but at the same time snagged a T206 Demmitt St. Louis that will grade at a 2 for 4k, when I hesitated on here for one at 6200. Timing and patience!

[RL]

I had to overpay a few times, but still did not feel like I got hosed.

Currently I am looking for a card that has several easily available, but way overpriced. For that card, every time I see it relisted, I contact the seller and let them know what I would offer a fair price since it did not sell.

They usually do not reply, or reply saying they already have more than that into the card.

[Rhotchkiss]

I just checked the card out on VCP. There are few recent comps aside from the one DJ pointed out and an SGC 2.5 for $45 in early 2000. If you ask me, the PSA 5 that DJ posted isn’t worth anywhere close to $400- that card did not double in 1.5 years - so no way a lesser card is worth anywhere close to that.

All that said, sometimes you just totally overpay if you just gotta have it. In my experience, every time I do that, another turns up shortly after and sells for much less than I paid!

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

Would anyone here pay more than $200 for a PSA 4 Vern Clemons E120? I think he wants 275 to 300. He has it listed much higher than others he has listed with same grade for some reason. Has it set at 400.

If it was a somewhat rare card I wanted for my collection I would and have overpaid. I wouldn't let 100-150 bucks over dissuade me. If you don't get it and can't find one for the next 2-3 years you'll think about it everyday on how close you came to getting one.

[RCMcKenzie]

I would say it would sell for about $100, maybe less, at auction. Clemons is a common e120. PSA 4 is not high grade for this set. You can search "e120 PSA 4" on eBay past sales and at auction sites, throw out the Hooper and Wheat prices, the star cards.

The eBay sellers that list cards at high prices are waiting for a buyer that wants it right now. It's like me going to the airport today, and buying a first class ticket to NYC. It's going to cost a lot more than planning ahead, and waiting.

I see 27 graded Clemons on sgc and psa pops combined. There are probably another 40 to 75 low grade raw ones in the wild.



I would wait, but I have overpaid before.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

All that said, sometimes you just totally overpay if you just gotta have it. In my experience, every time I do that, another turns up shortly after and sells for much less than I paid!

Ditto.

[bnorth]

I own a lot of extremely rare cards/items. For me they are usually priced way cheaper than I would pay or way more than I want to. If I really want it I overpay and justify it to myself by remembering all the things I got super cheap.

[oldjudge]

I believe that unless they know otherwise, PSA values all non-star cards the same. Their job isn’t to know rarity, their job is to grade cards. If the card is truely rare then, as many others have said, pay what the card is worth to you and forget the guide. I have been collecting for the last 30+ years and the next time I refer to a PSA price guide will also be the first time I have ever referred to a PSA price guide.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I just checked the card out on VCP. There are few recent comps aside from the one DJ pointed out and an SGC 2.5 for $45 in early 2000. If you ask me, the PSA 5 that DJ posted isn’t worth anywhere close to $400- that card did not double in 1.5 years - so no way a lesser card is worth anywhere close to that.

All that said, sometimes you just totally overpay if you just gotta have it. In my experience, every time I do that, another turns up shortly after and sells for much less than I paid!

This!!!!

[Vintage Vern]

Well basically he's stating the demand has changed since January 2022 when he sold his last PSA 4 Clemons card for $175.00 haven't verified that yet, but even if he did I doubt it gained that much value from 6 months ago. I'm going to dig to see if I can find the cert number. He may be selling the same one he claimed he got $175.00 for. I know he had them because at that time he had them priced high as well. I missed the PSA5 for $149.00 , and offered him $125 he had the 4 listed for $240 then dropes it to $200 and he declined my offer. I'm trying to justify it, but just can't even though I want the card. If it had the highest grade which is a 5 it would help. Being it's not even the top grade it makes it harder to justify. If a 5 just sold for $400 it would be different. He's a good guy, and has lots of nice stuff yepbg is his ebay name.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I would say it would sell for about $100, maybe less, at auction. Clemons is a common e120. PSA 4 is not high grade for this set. You can search "e120 PSA 4" on eBay past sales and at auction sites, throw out the Hooper and Wheat prices, the star cards.

The eBay sellers that list cards at high prices are waiting for a buyer that wants it right now. It's like me going to the airport today, and buying a first class ticket to NYC. It's going to cost a lot more than planning ahead, and waiting.

I see 27 graded Clemons on sgc and psa pops combined. There are probably another 40 to 75 low grade raw ones in the wild.



I would wait, but I have overpaid before.

This is how I view it as well. I looked at other commons that have the same pop, and selling price. This is above most others in the same company for price. When people say they over paid is it double the price it should be selling at?

[drcy]

With a rarely sold card, your sale is in part establishing the price

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

This is how I view it as well. I looked at other commons that have the same pop, and selling price. This is above most others in the same company for price. When people say they over paid is it double the price it should be selling at?

If you are in the hobby for the long haul, I would say wait for a better deal. If you really want the card, and plan to keep it, it's not an insane price, it's a high price.

I've been looking for a T213-1 Rhoades for 10 years and hope yepbg is the dealer that finds one, so that I have time to see it, and buy it, before someone else scoops it up.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by drcy

With a rarely sold card, your sale is in part establishing the price

He just sold one 6 months ago for $175.00 now he's asking $400 for the same graded card. I offered him $200. He already told me he wouldn't even accept $250. I'm pretty sure he wants $300.

[RCMcKenzie]

All of the vintage sellers read this board. He probably already knows that you are his best customer for this card.
Like the Rhoades I'm looking for, there's no hobby in general demand for the e120 you want. DrCy is right, that a higher sale of a 33 Goudey Gehrig raises all boats, but for obscure commons, the high prices are thrown out for future sales.

If you think you might resell in 6 months, don't buy it unless it's okay to take the loss.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

yepbg is his ebay name.

Yepbg is notorious on this site. He has been mentioned many times over the years here. He ranks up there with Deans as an eBay seller who completely overvalues his stuff.

I have dealt with Yepbg. About 4 years ago I paid way up for an e105 Wagner throwing that I needed. I think the value in 2022 has finally caught up to what I paid! But he had the card and I needed it, so I bought it. The card came on time and as described. I am almost positive I did another deal with him where I made a strong offer below his ask but above FMV and he accepted. He certainly has some nice and rare stuff and aside from price, I have had nothing but solid experiences. But he certainly prices high and he does not move much.

It all comes down to how badly do you want the card, now. Because another will 100% come up in the next 1-2 years (and Yepbg may compete against you to buy it!)

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Yepbg is notorious on this site. He has been mentioned many times over the years here. He ranks up there with Deans as an eBay seller who completely overvalues his stuff.

I have dealt with Yepbg. About 4 years ago I paid way up for an e105 Wagner throwing that I needed. I think the value in 2022 has finally caught up to what I paid! But he had the card and I needed it, so I bought it. The card came on time and as described. I am almost positive I did another deal with him where I made a strong offer below his ask but above FMV and he accepted. He certainly has some nice and rare stuff and aside from price, I have had nothing but solid experiences. But he certainly prices high and he does not move much.

It all comes down to how badly do you want the card, now. Because another will 100% come up in the next 1-2 years (and Yepbg may compete against you to buy it!)

this is spot on. if you have to have it...now...you have to pay up. this is what the hobby has become.

I was trying to complete my e97 nichols run...had been working on it for a few decades...I never could pull the trigger on the color phil variation because prices were crazy. Eventually I did...and then I got another a few months later for 1/2 the price.

I recently got my last dots miller to complete my run...and I paid up...because I was ready to be done and who knows when another will turn up.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

All of the vintage sellers read this board. He probably already knows that you are his best customer for this card.
Like the Rhoades I'm looking for, there's no hobby in general demand for the e120 you want. DrCy is right, that a higher sale of a 33 Goudey Gehrig raises all boats, but for obscure commons, the high prices are thrown out for future sales.

If you think you might resell in 6 months, don't buy it unless it's okay to take the loss.

I think he is banking on someone that is trying to build a registry set. He claimed the E120 are hot, and in high demand. He may be 100% correct I just don't like being the guy that paid double for something I could have had less than a year ago. Anyone think the E120 is really that hot right now?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

I think he is banking on someone that is trying to build a registry set. He claimed the E120 are hot, and in high demand. He may be 100% correct I just don't like being the guy that paid double for something I could have had less than a year ago. Anyone think the E120 is really that hot right now?

Except for Ruth and Cobb, E120s are no hotter than they have been in the last 5 yrs...
.

[Vintage Vern]

The people that say they bought a card then found one cheaper soon after. That's exactly what happened to me with the Clemons Williards Chocolate V100 PSA 5 I bought off of yepbg then found another before the first arrived that was a PSA 5.5 the highest card registered. I own 2 of the 5 total registered through PSA, and own the only card higher than a 5 for Clemons.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by Leon

Except for Ruth and Cobb, E120s are no hotter than they have been in the last 5 yrs...
.

Thanks for that. I kind of figured that much.

[JLange]

If you have already made a reasonable offer and the seller has declined, your next best alternative is to wait it out, taking the rarity into consideration. With time, one of the following tends to occur:

1. You get more and better information over time that helps establish the price. If you come to realize that similiar items or other suitable comps when they finally do come up for sale will go for about the same higher price, you can go back and pay the seller’s number with confidence. If the opposite is true you can feel good about sticking the seller with an unsellable item (at their higher price)

2. The seller may grow tired of waiting to sell at the higher price and either offer to you eventually because you expressed interest or put the item up for auction to see what the market price really is, and you can win it at a lower price possibly

3. You find another copy of said item at a more reasonable price, and buy it!

I have learned to trust my own eyeballs, having looked at so many items up for sale or auction over the years. If I see something I haven’t seen before, I tend to buy it right away. The likelihood that ten more examples are around the corner is low, or else I would have seen it over the years. This is my personal gauge of rarity, largely based on the frequency with which items come up for sale. I recently bought a beat up PC of Bob Feller because the last one I saw available for sale was over 10 yrs ago. Of course I want a better copy but my experience tells me I might need to wait another 10 yrs 😀 to find it. Who wants to do that?

[clamendo]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I believe that unless they know otherwise, PSA values all non-star cards the same. Their job isn’t to know rarity, their job is to grade cards. If the card is truely rare then, as many others have said, pay what the card is worth to you and forget the guide. I have been collecting for the last 30+ years and the next time I refer to a PSA price guide will also be the first time I have ever referred to a PSA price guide.

Ditto


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[EddieP]

Originally Posted by JLange

1. You get more and better information over time that helps establish the price. If you come to realize that similiar items or other suitable comps when they finally do come up for sale will go for about the same higher price, you can go back and pay the seller’s number with confidence. If the opposite is true you can feel good about sticking the seller with an unsellable item (at their higher price)

2. The seller may grow tired of waiting to sell at the higher price and either offer to you eventually because you expressed interest or put the item up for auction to see what the market price really is, and you can win it at a lower price possibly

3. You find another copy of said item at a more reasonable price, and buy it!

I’ve dealt with this seller before and this is what I found with him:

1. Yes
2. No
3. Yes

He does not budge on his asking price. I think he uses the “Best Offer” option to gauge interest in his cards.

Oops, just read Rhotchkiss’ post…I agree with everything he says

[Exhibitman]

Seems to me that if you are asking the question you already know the answer...skip it and wait for the next one.

[Vintage Vern]

Well he sold it for $300. Or let's say he made it look like he sold it for $300. I find it hard to believe with all the others he sold for much less Vern Clemons sold for that much as a PSA 4. Dean's cards is also marking them up like this. It's amazing he sold a psa 4 like this in January of this year for $175, and now this went for $300.