any guess on how many 52 mantles exist??

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by brian1961

It seems to me Jake has identified the most crucial question in this discussion. There might be "a ton" of ungraded 1952 Topps Mantles, but come on, do you really think their technical grades would come out that high? Remember all those stories you've heard in your life about someone saying, "I'm sure it will grade MINT, or at the very least "NEAR MINT - MINT". Then it's graded by PSA or SGC and ....

I think my stance on that was pretty clear in post 12 when I put -

"I have a different opinion than most, but I do not feel the Mantle is rare at all other than in pristine form."

Yes, in pristine it's crazy rare, but still not as rare as tons of other cards like Rutherford. There are only three 10's, but there are still 10s. I think those owners are likely all high level collectors that got them from the Mr. Mint find already brought up. I doubt there are many, if any, 9 or 10s in non-collector hands. Maybe an attic find someday like black swamp, but it's pretty unlikely. The hidden cards are likely low or mid grades that were purchased or well played with years ago.

My point is that if at any time between Ebay, shops and auction houses (and even leon's on this site) I can find 40+ examples daily. How can that be a rare card unless every one is selling theirs every two weeks? Even throwing the large number of cards being sold daily to the wind, there are still more PSA 10's of Mantle than every other card in the set.

[midmo]

There's still tons of raw stuff out there. How much, who knows. I have a friend with a pretty nice 52 Mantle that has had it since the 70's, ungraded and doesn't need to sell it. There are still plenty of old school set collectors with cards in binders. I don't have the 52 set, but I do have nice 53, 54 and 56 sets in binders with no desire to grade them. A co-worker once brought in a shoebox of Leaf cards to show me (multiple Ruths, Robinsons, Williams, Musials, etc.) that he inherited from his grandpa. They were sentimental to him so he didn't want to sell any. I know a local show dealer that sells only raw cards (pre-war to 50's). He doesn't like computers so I guess all his inventory is "unknown to the hobby". These examples are just in my little bubble so there has to be a lot more out there...

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Yes, in pristine it's crazy rare, but still not as rare as tons of other cards like Rutherford. There are only three 10's, but there are still 10s. I think those owners are likely all high level collectors that got them from the Mr. Mint find already brought up. I doubt there are many, if any, 9 or 10s in non-collector hands. Maybe an attic find someday like black swamp, but it's pretty unlikely. The hidden cards are likely low or mid grades that were purchased or well played with years ago.

My point is that if at any time between Ebay, shops and auction houses (and even leon's on this site) I can find 40+ examples daily. How can that be a rare card unless every one is selling theirs every two weeks? Even throwing the large number of cards being sold daily to the wind, there are still more PSA 10's of Mantle than every other card in the set.

I know the OP concerns a guess as to how many 52 Topps Mantles exist. You speak well that in pristine it's crazy rare, but your thrust focuses on the idea the card is not "rare". Threads and in-person "discussions" have taken place on this matter for decades. The arguments were hot and heavy:

It's a double-printed card.

It should not be worth more than the real rookie, the '51 Bowman.

It's not like Mantle was that good; a bunch of guys have hit more home runs than Mantle. If he'd taken better care of himself, the big dummy, ....

I need not remind what the first post-war card was to sell at a public auction for 7 figures? Yes, most of us don't know about the private sales. Maybe the '51 Bowman PSA 10 did transact for seven figures first. But what does it matter now? A PSA 8.5 1952 Topps Mantle sold for over 7 figures.

Amazing.

This talk about Rutherford's rarity is pointless. I know Johnny played for the Brooks, but beyond that, his card is pure common. The hobby has changed, because the price point of ultra-high grade examples from '52 Topps has made collecting that set impossible for all but a very, very, very select few collectors. There are guys who will work to build a '52 Dodgers team set, but at what grade can they afford?

In the final analysis, the sheer demand for Mickey Mantle cards, particularly his 1952 Topps, will trump everything anyone has to say to argue about the real merits of other cards in the landmark 1952 Topps set. The supply for that beauty is high, but the demand goes on all day long, out the door and around the block, across the street, and clear out of town.

I wish I had mine back.

It's all good, bro. I do distinctly recall in about 1980-81 when it was discovered Mickey, Jackie, and Bobby were each double-printed, in order for the sheet to comprise to the right number. A key star from each New York team was chosen, Topps's biggest market. Dr. Beckett promptly cut their current values in half. Within months, or perhaps days, sellers ignored the "guide" and charged more for Mick. The buyers for that beautiful card were now sprouting like spring dandelions. They didn't care they were being charged more than "guide", and the quotes are meant to emphasize the guide nature of a guide price. They WANTED THAT CARD---NOW!!!!!!!!!!!

It's oh so true, the finds of cards in the future involving raw collections--unless the cards were preserved with the tools of our trade that work, their technical grades will be no better than high mid-grade.

The only chance of ultra-high grade cards coming out of the woodwork would be some from Mr. Mint's Find, providing they took care of it again (I.E. and NOT put them in a four-screw acrylic holder, and screwed down AS FAR AS THEIR STRENGTH WOULD ALLOW), or original unopened wax packs, a box, or the impossible---another case.

Sometimes I think we dream too much. Lots of fun, though. OK, time to shut up.

All the best, with respect, bro. ----Brian Powell

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by brian1961

All the best, with respect, bro. ----Brian Powell

No worries Brian!

I am just debating in good fun, thanks for adding.