New 2008 SCD Came Out- Are Prices Accurate?

[Archive]

Posted By: peter chao

The prices look pretty good on vintage. What's your opinion? Also, if you think a particular price is right on, let us know. Also, if you think a price is way-off, let us know.

They have '34 Diamond-Stars Lefty Grove at 5,000+ in near mint. Are you kidding me? Way too high.

Peter C.

[Archive]

Posted By: Rob Dewolf

Does the new guide make any mention of ranking the prices of cards by the players' positions?

[Archive]

Posted By: peter chao

Rob,

Give me a break. I know that some of my posts are a little silly, but I'm just trying to give people more topics to choose from. I get tired of all the arguments about grading, the auction houses, and outing an E-Bay auction.

Also, I post a lot of new topics, some of them are bound to be silly.

Peter C.

[Archive]

Posted By: davidcycleback

How can we know? It's not 2008 yet.

[Archive]

Posted By: Dan

For the things I look at the prices didn't change from last year and they are way off. I like getting the book but it is kind of frustrating to get a new book and everything in it is the same as the prior year except for the cover. I collect buttons and the 1969 buttons that are listed in the book is almost comical. I think a Clemente lists for $75.00 in the book and one just sold on ebay for $531.00. On the other hand, I realize putting this book together is a huge task and updating the prices must be difficult to do.

[Archive]

Posted By: Joann

Peter,

Not trying to be difficult here, but you are not responsible for making sure people have a variety of topics to choose from. No one asked you to do it, no one voted on you as the person to do it, and I'm not even sure it's a position that one can volunteer for on this board.

I'm definitely not sure that it's a position that's even needed. We get plenty of meaningful threads here every day - about actual cards people own or have acquired, about the history of a card or issue, or genuine questions about vintage cards. Even the old reliables that make people crazy like grading, alterations, etc, are repeated and fought over because they are important to the hobby.

By your own description, some of yours are silly because you post so many. Personally, I'd rather have fewer threads that are weightier than get peppered with topics-lite all the time.

Joann

[Archive]

Posted By: Rob Dewolf

Peter,

With all of the breaks afforded to you by the majority of people on this board, you certainly don't need me to give you one.

And I mustn't forget:

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Rob, I was patiently waiting for your insertion of a smiley. I was going to give it a few more minutes before contacting Leon and demanding that at least one smiley be forcefully placed inside your post.

<----- note double smileys

[Archive]

Posted By: Rick McQuillan

Peter, this is a good question. I have been asking the same question since I received my 2008 SCD last week. I haven't had the time to do a lot of research, but here are a few interesting (to me anyway) findings.

T205's

Near mint commons went from $600 to $700
EX commons went from $90 to $100

But the biggest suprise was the VG's, which I collect, jumped from $35 to $50. I thought that the 2007 VG price was a little light. It was difficult to find solid VG's for $35.

A few higher end T205's

Barger partial B - VG jumped from $120 to $200
Bresnaham mouth open - VG went down twenty five bucks
Cobb took a big jump
Eddie Collins mouth open - VG went from $235 to $300
Gray stats - VG went from $240 to $300


T206's

Near Mint commons went from $550 to $700
Ex commons stayed at $100 - strange
VG commons went from $40 to $50 ($50 for a VG is higher than what people have been paying. $20-$30 is more realistic.)

SL's jumped from $75 to $100 in VG
Jap Barbeau has a typo in the VG price (should be $50-not $200)
Cobb's took a big jump- Red backgroud jumped from $725 to $900 in VG
George Brown Chicago was a common in the 2007 catalog, but now it is double the common price in EX and VG (typo?)
Strangely, some of the VG HOFers have dropped in price.



1933 Goudey's

Virtually no changes. Even the lower end Ruth's, which have been strong lately, aren't changed. The VG common price is much higher than the currrent market price. I can generally pick these up for $10-$15 bucks.

These are the only sets that I collect. Perhaps others will notice changes in other sets.

Take care! Rick

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

I was one of the major price contributors for the 2008 catalog, and supplied information solely for the vintage cards. A few points about how I made my contribution:

While I handle many vintage cards in the course of a year, I haven't sold every card from every issue. Much of my input was intuitive; I know which sets are a little hotter than others, and generally how much the market has appreciated over the course of the year. Likewise, I know the extremely rare issues that were grossly underpriced in the catalog. But most of the numbers were clearly estimated values, and for a typical entry I might offer "mark commons 10% higher, but Hall of Famers should be 20% higher." The point is the Standard Catalog is no more than a guide. None of the numbers are precise, but all should give a sense of a fair market value, and a relative price between one issue and another. If the catalog says such and such a card is worth $35 it might trade for anywhere between $25 and $50 in the real marketplace, but there is only so much precision you can have in a yearly guide.

[Archive]

Posted By: Rich Klein

But; in my years of doing the Almanac at Beckett, this was my order of importance.

1) Get the checklist of a "new set" into the data base and enter that set accurately. In addition, I always wanted to get a listing going in the data base even if it were just one card, so I could have a base in case more cards from that set were found.

2) Second step, get an image of the card in that set. I always preferred having a front and a back image. To me, a big advantage of the Krause SCD is that they picture front and backs of pre-1980 cards. Even though many cards in Beckett have front and back images in the data base, one only sees the front image (and a very small image to boot). I understand with page count restrictions why that was so, but to me, this is now a big advantage for the SCD guide.

3) Get the prices right. The purpose of a guide is to be a guide. However, frankly; unless prices are or were way off, I was just as happy with prices as good as possible. With the lead time you need for an annual, there was no guarantee that prices would be accurate when the book when live.

One imporant difference between Krause and Beckett is the condition the cards are priced in. Krause still uses NM as their condition for vintage cards while Beckett uses ex-mt. That to me is an advantage for Beckett, as the goal is to be closer to the condition that most cards are available in that condition then in better shape.

Regards
Rich

[Archive]

Posted By: Alan U

Does anyone else cut out the modern section of their annual SCD's?

The last couple I've taken a razor blade and cut out the modern section and then resealed the outside with clear packing tape and resealed the inside with clear packing tape too. It works quite well and makes the book more manageable.

For example my 2007 book stops at page 550 and picks up again at page 1733.

-Alan

[Archive]

Posted By: Bill

Dear God. Is this a thread that is off topic or something? Because if it is I am pretty sure I can go find at least 5 on the front of the board started by others much more far off than this one.

People complain about Peter. Fine, I get it. You don't like what he says. Maybe instead of letting it bother you so much, you can simply ignore it. It's not that difficult to do, I promise. If you want to talk about baseball cards, then post about baseball cards. Some of you tell others to just let the threads float to the next page but then you post a statement just as, if not more, outrageous than the one being responded to.

It's not like he floods the board with threads all the time that you cannot find interesting baseball card articles is it?

He started a legit thread here for this board. And the initial responses he gets are pretty much insults. That's great. I'm glad to see the people arguing for the board are just as guilty as Peter supposedly is.

Yes, he wanted to put in a "different" kind of topic. This topic is on target with the board, at least more than some of the threads started by others. So he gets insulted for trying a topic that hasn't been discussed because nobody voted on him for it? C'mon, give me a break.

I lurk a lot for three key reasons here. 1) Learn about different sets I don't collect and might want to. 2) Any time I have posted, it just gets ignored anyway. And no, it's not off topic. 3) I feel like I'm back in high school with the clique feeling in here.



Change your socks, drink water, and drive on.

[Archive]

Posted By: Eric Brehm

Bill -- I agree with everything you just said, including the bit about the 'clique' feeling. There is a lot of hypocrisy here. Having said that, I am interested in what people have to say about the price guide.

[Archive]

Posted By: Paul S

Well, this topic was good for me, as I had bought both the 2007 Lemke and Beckett last spring and was wondering if I needed cough up the money again. My decision? Yes and no. But I'll hold off and leave all coughing up to my cats' and their hairballs.
DavidCB's comment was spot on, by the way.

[Archive]

Posted By: Eric Brehm

I don't own or use SCD or Beckett but I wonder if I should better familiarize myself with their systems. Whenever I go into a card shop that sells mostly raw cards they always whip out Beckett when trying to convince me they are offering me a good deal on something. This is always confusing since Beckett, if I recall correctly, has 'high' and 'low' price columns, uses different reference grades for each issue depending upon its age, and then has percentage factors that get applied to the reference value to determine the value of cards in other grades. It seems like I need a calculator in order to negotiate with the salesman.

[Archive]

Posted By: Paul S

Eric, I almost never pick up the Beckett. I bought them both when I started collecting again after a protracted layoff from the hobby. Lemke I like not just because of the general prices but also in ID-ing some types I am unfamiliar with. Also, sometimes the little descriptive blurbs at the beginning of a set comes in handy (this last part applies to Beckett too.) However, in the end, I am always checking the latest prices on ebay, etc. I know some of this is useless when you're in a store and some guy is giving you the schpeil in the face.

[Archive]

Posted By: E, Daniel

Haven't bought a Beckett's Baseball for a few years, but remember that comparing pricing between it and the Standard Catalog usually showed reasonably close estimates, with some very obvious differences here and there.
In participating in this latest SCD, you will probably be able to tell me.....is there some copying and colluding between these two guides that goes on? Do you reference Beckett's most recent guide to get a sense of whether your potential estimate is close or within the ball park of other guides predictions?

Rich is super welcome to join in if he reads this to give us some Beckett perspective....



Daniel

[Archive]

Posted By: Eric Brehm

Paul, thanks, I'll check out Lemke. I just got back in the hobby also after a long hiatus and have been buying mostly graded cards. I can see that the raw card market is a different ballgame. Of course, that's the way the whole hobby operated before the advent of third party grading. If nothing else, the wide acceptance of numerical grading seems to have forced people dealing in raw cards to be a little more precise about terms like "Near Mint" and so on.

[Archive]

Posted By: Paul S

Eric, of course the Lemke is just a general operating manual, and hardly the last word. Almost all people here tend to prefer it IF referring to a guide, but use other online resources for accuracy, because the guide can often be way off.
And, although grading has forced some raw sellers to try and be conscientous about their grading, they are naturally subjective - to their benefit, of course Get good scans and trust your eyes. And if you haven't read it here already, as almost everyone says about graded cards: "Buy the card, not the holder." (Sorry, don't mean to be elementary in your direction, but I came online here as you do, a pre-graded-era collector after a long layoff -- this is how it was imparted to me, and might save you the time of sifting through posts.)

[Archive]

Posted By: Eric Brehm

Paul, point well taken. For one thing, I think the grading companies are too liberal with their allowances for centering, at least according to my tastes. In most cases I would prefer a well centered '5' with a little honest corner wear than a grotesquely centered but sharp-cornered '7'. For this and other reasons, I do not buy graded cards sight unseen. And I have found that most eBay sellers and auction houses are willing to send higher quality scans when the ones in the auction listings are too small to discern adequate detail.

Of course, another important aspect of grading is authentication, i.e. verifying that a card has not been altered, but that is a whole subject unto itself, which has been widely discussed here (to say the least).

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

Hi Daniel- I actually inputted both guides, and they were sent to me about the same time. I posted the information into each one but I never played one against the other. I can't say if there is any copying going on between the two, as they are independent, and in theory prices should be very similar. It's not as if one guide prices something at $100 and the other prices the same item at $300. That would make no sense, as you would expect both to be consistent if they reflect the market.

[Archive]

Posted By: Rich Klein

The prices should be similar if both publications read the market correctly. One of the biggest price differences, and I'll return to a point I made earlier is that Beckett is ex/mt for pre-48 and Krause is NM for pre-48.


Other than that, how pricing is done was always an individual matter to Bob and myself. I'm sure we each had our little tricks for pricing.

Regards
Rich

[Archive]

Posted By: E, Daniel

looks like you pricing gurus keep your secrets close to the chest , maybe even under a knitted vest - Barry especially.
Well, I guess it's understandable as you don't want just any t/d&h applying for such plum positions .


Daniel

[Archive]

Posted By: Rich Klein

Daniel; I'm not at Beckett any more nor is Bob at Krause (F&W) but pricing is bot a bit of an art and a bit of a science. No right way or wrong way to price, but it's a mix of knowledge, instinct and math. No evasion, just no set answer

Regards
Rich

[Archive]

Posted By: Bobby Binder

Barry,

Are you using information from my site to come up with your values?

[Archive]

Posted By: E, Daniel

It was more of a retrospective, but I didn't write it that way..sorry.


Daniel

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

Bobby-actually not. It's all intuitive. For example, if I'm looking at E94 prices from last year's guide, and they are way too low, I may just add a note: raise all prices 50% across the board. I make no attempt to be any more precise than that because even if I spent hours analyzing every card, by the time the guide came out there's a good chance prices will have changed anyway.

Also keep in mind the final printed prices are (I think) an average of all the input they receive. So if ten dealers give price input on E94's, and all ten are averaged in some way, they probably end up pretty close to real market value. But with prices increasing so rapidly, the catalog quickly seems behind the times.

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

...it is remarkable to me that people actually care about a book of prices that is updated annually with all of the excellent on-line resources for card pricing that is not just more accurate, but reflects the ONLY relevant pricing data---the most recent sales.

[Archive]

Posted By: Rich Klein

For the informational blurbs; checklists; and images are all in one spot. And there are times when computers are not accessible. So; in an "encylcopediac" reference about cards; you'd like the values listed to be as accurate as possible.

Barry is right; pricing on a global scale like that is intinitive; because in the days when I worked on the Almanac; if I had the time to scour Bobby's fine site on a card by card basis for book pricing, the deadlines would never be met.

Regards
Rich

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

...but, if you want another huge book with lots of numbers on the cheap, I have a few extra telephone books that can tell you almost as much about the current market for cards as the 2008 SCP.

I recognize the idea of having all the data in one easily flippable place, but if the numbers aren't up to date -- or are even open to debate -- then you don't have any meaningful data.

The most, if not only meaningful value for a card is what the last person paid for it on the open market.

[Archive]

Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I think the 2008 Standard Catalog is a fine work. A good, useful reference.

But then I'm not a fan of paying a third party grader to tell me what my cards are, or their condition. Nor am I a fan of websites that charge for opining about card values.

I'm content to have the Standard Catalog, other old references like Mr. Lipset's fine books, watch eBay prices, and then, when a card comes along that I want I can offer up to what I'm willing to pay, and be content with winning or losing. The Standard Catalog gives me an idea, I set my price.

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

<<Nor am I a fan of websites that charge for opining about card values.>>

I don't pay for an opinion -- that's what SCP is. I pay for objective facts -- that's was VintageCardprices.com provides.

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

The Standard Catalog and Beckett Almanac would have been more accurate if prices were fairly static throughout the year. But over the last five years we've witnessed such drastic price increases that it is impossible for them to stay current.

Bobby's site is much different than any printed catalog. Bobby does not editorialize; if something went for $82.47 on ebay last night, he doesn't determine if that is too high or too low. It simply gets posted as is to his website.

Putting together a yearly almanac takes some decision making. If Barry Sloate says T206 commons in NR MT are worth $2000 each, editor Rich Klein has to make a decision if that price is accurate or if perhaps it is too high. Maybe someone else suggested they are worth $500 each so now he has a decision to make. It's a very different process.

Bobby's of course is more accurate, but that is the advantage of the internet.

[Archive]

Posted By: Matt

VintageCardprices.com does provide facts, but they are somewhat inflated. Any sale that doesn't take place via auction isn't there. The difference is significant - take for example an ebay listing that sells for $1,000. After ebay and Paypal fees, say the seller only sees $925 (something like that) of that. At a card show, that deal gets done for $925 cash. I don't know how VCP handles the "juice" from auction houses but that could be an even more significant difference %15-%20. So, part of what gets rolled into the card's value on VCP is the cost of advertising and running the auction, which, of course, is not part of the value of the card at all.

You could make a case that the only thing relevant to the card's value is how much someone is willing to pay for it, and since the buyer pays the "juice", that should be included in the value of the card. Even so, the fact that the same transaction occurred for $925 at a card show and that is not factored into the VCP average is a flaw. If the VCP prices were only used for determining auction prices, then maybe it's no problem, but when VCP prices are used for transactions such as here on the BST, then it's inaccurate.

If I am mistaken on any of my facts, please correct me.

[Archive]

Posted By: Steve Murray

Each price on VintageCardPrices shows from where the price derived, ebay, Mastro, REA, etc. The prices reflect what the market is for a particular card, i.e. what a willing buyer was willing to pay. What the seller nets, after paypal fees, ebay fees, juice, etc., is, I think, irrelevant.

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

Matt- the one part of your argument I disagree with is the influence private transactions have on determining prices. Most private transactions are exactly that- private. And many are exaggerated and can't be documented. It would be extremely irresponsible to post word of mouth prices on the website.

I'm pretty certain Bobby's prices do include the juice, as that is what the real selling price is. And you can't factor in a company's overhead, that is irrelevant.

Typically, house sales are recorded and are publicly available. They don't factor in the broker's fee, or the fact that you paid an exterminator $150 to check for termites before you made the sale. Just the selling price is recorded and posted.

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

1) VCP includes the "juice".


2) A transaction that occurs between two individuals either at a card show or on this B/S/T thread is IRRELEVANT for determining card values because the market never had a chance to weigh in on the price.

If I sell a Ty Cobb T206 for $10 or even $50 through the B/S/T, why on earth should that factor into the value of a T206 Cobb? However, if that card is open for bidding to the public at large and only nets $50, well then you have a realistic value for that card -- you have some idea what people generally are willing to pay for that particular card, which is, of course, what a price guide should be.

Some dude's opinion based on loads of undisclosed evidence and theory and then put into print on an annual basis sounds like the opposite of a good idea for determining a card's value.

[Archive]

Posted By: Matt

Steve & Barry -
I don't know how Beckett does it now, but for years, their monthly prices were done via reports of card show sales.
Even if you disagree with my first argument, the second point that deals are going on at card shows for %5-%20 less then the VCP prices listed and that those sales are not reflected has to be seen as a flaw in using VCP as a basis for non-auction sales.

Edited to add bolding for clarity.

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

If you walked around a show asking dealers what they sold their cards for, I doubt you would receive accurate information. Some dealers will forget, others will inflate the sale price to make it look like they get the highest prices, etc. That's an awfully unscientific method.

[Archive]

Posted By: Matt

barry - I agree it's very unscientific. My point is we know such sales exist, we also know that sellers would be making those sales for %5-%20 less then at auction since they'd be making the same profit, so that needs to be factored in somehow when using VCP as a price-list for non-auction sales. We can't just ignore all of those sales since we have no 100% accurate way of measuring them.

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

I suppose you can look at VCP prices and interpret them as you choose.

[Archive]

Posted By: Bobby Binder

We do add the hammer into the final price of all auctions when applicable. Which means the final price is what a buyer was willing to pay...exclude the shipping. What people are actually paying for cards at shows and in the B/S/T is great but I would not include that in our data. All of our prices are verifiable and we provide a link for you to further investigate the card. We have been offered many times prices on back room deals that I won't allow. Not going to be a place that sellers can manipulate by saying they sold card "X" for $10K add it to our site then see it for sale on eBay.

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

...VCP does not even include BIN sales on ebay for the very reason that when a seller gets his asking price on a card it tells you very little about the market for that card, other than there was one person willing to pay that amount on that date for whatever reason.

Again, auction prices for cards is the closest thing we have ever had to real-time valuation of baseball cards. Nothing else comes close.

If Dealer X sells a card to Customer Y for Price Z, how does that help you determine the value of that card? Please try to explain that to me. Why should I care about Dealer X's asking price or that Customer Y cared to pay Price Z for it? Remember, that a final auction price at least tells you what two people, if not more, were willing to pay for an item. Put that on ebay -- an international forum with gobs of collectors looking at the cards every second -- and you are talking about a global marketplace that tells you a zillion more things about values of cards (and other goods, frankly) than your local card show.

BIN's or private sales are much less meaningful and can only be judged as accurate when compared against recent auction sales of the same card.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimCrandell

I love VCP and use it as my primary guide on what to pay for cards either in private transactions or what to bid on ebay. I usually buy the annual SCD and it gets barely looked at.

As far as private transactions go, if anything the prices at shows are greater not less than ebay prices although maybe less than those obtained by the "Evil Empire".

[Archive]

Posted By: Bobby Binder

True we have not include BIN's in our sales because IMO and other we feel it is not a true measure of what a card is worth. For the most part they are way over inflated prices and the seller is fishing for a registry guy to bite the hook. But for the past few months we have been working on a way to incorporate this data. It should start being available soon and will not be averaged in to the current system. When there is BIN sales another button will show allowing you to view those transactions.

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

T206 Collector- I pretty much agree with everything you say here....except.....

Being an addict and doing quite a few private deals on esoteric cards, AND keeping up with auctions and ebay, is the best way for me to personally determine value. I have also used Bobby's site too.....but there is no way a perfect value could be ascertained on the Boston Garter I got last week. There is one other Herzog graded a 30.....so that is when experienced buyers and sellers get to have fun. As my good friend Roger Neufeldt always says...."The deal has to be good for both of us"......I think some of the give and take is what makes the hobby fun.....especially when it's with good friends and other Net54'ers......regards

[Archive]

Posted By: T206Collector

...that there is a reason to have a guide for items that rarely come up for auction, if for no other reason than cataloguing purposes. But how the guys who create the guide come up with those numbers is more or less a crap shoot.

[Archive]

Posted By: Matt

I just want to interject that this has been a wonderfully entertaining discussion; everyone seems to have a slightly different opinion on the matter, yet everyone explained themselves logically and coherently and there was not even a hint of the prevalent message board subtle tone of "if you disagree with me you must be an idiot."
Thanks for the mature discussion!

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

I think in the end there is no such thing as an exact price for any item. All cards sell within certain parameters, and it's up to buyer and seller to work out the details.