Thoughts on card pricing.....

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Posted By: Scott Levy

As many of you know I've been selling off many of my graded T206s. Lately (specifically within the past month) I feel like the market has gotten extremely thin for this issue and also for others. I am starting to lack confidence that my better cards will get a reasonable price on ebay -- as some of them have brought very, very low bids (e.g. Evers Cubs - PSA 5 $565, Westlake SLer PSA 6 - $406).

Even private transactions have seemed to dry up a little lately. For example, I'm really shocked that I didn't blow out a T205 '4' Cobb at $1650. Did I just pick a bad few weeks to sell ... or are we starting to see a major shift into much lower (more affordable) prices?

How do others feel?

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Scott, there are a number of factors that go into whether cards sell, many having nothing to do with the economy.

Yes, the economy is down and you're selling cards that are readily available in any market. However, you're selling on ebay and you're not committing fraud -- this is a problem. You've got auction houses that engage in obvious fraud and you've got consignors that shill their own cards as well in auctions. Both actions give the appearance that the market is stronger for such cards than what reality would dictate, hence your disappointment.

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Posted By: Darren

It's kinda like a house of cards.

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Posted By: andy becker

timing might not be the greatest. we just finished spring break here.

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Posted By: Fred C

A "4" T205 Cobb at $1650 sounds reasonable (from a year or so ago). If the stock market dropped a ton maybe it's not so unreasonable for the card market to drop. If the card market followed the stock market then we're probably still not at the low point because the card market may lag the stock market by a few months in time. The more available cards in mid grade condition will probably see the largest changes.

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Posted By: Scott Mt. Joy

My ebay sales have been soso lately, I mailny sell exhibits and the only difference I have seen from this year vs last is my cards that are $50+ are very soft, either not selling or selling for 20-50%. The funny thing is the inexpensive ones from $1-20 have been selling very strong. I start them all at .99 nr, last year about 30% failed to get a bid and my average sale was $3.16, over the last 3 months, 92% have been selling with an average price of $4.81. My take is people still want to buy new cards but they have just moved down in price range.

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Posted By: J Levine

Scott,
A t205 Cobb 4 for $1500-1700 is reasonable and right were things SHOULD be. I track T205 prices and a lot of low and mid grade t205s are not selling for as much as they used to. The high end graded is still strong but can be all over the place...see the prices in the Mile High Auction recently. The Stahl was huge while others were mediocre at best. Raw T205s are taking a beating as well. A p-f t205 used to sell between $12-$15...now I can get them for $7-$10. Not a huge difference until you look at the percentages. Raw g-vg T205s are also lower. What used to be $25-$35 for a raw card can now sell for between $20 and $25. I recently purchased three t205s on ebay that I had large bids on and won them for half my snipe amount. Also, people keep dropping their prices even on the BST side of things. Just some observations.

Joshua

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Posted By: Michael C

I've noticed that the mid grade t205s are very soft right now. PSA 3s can be had for a tad over $20 bucks and PSA 4s can be had for a tad over $35. (i bought a 3.5 common last night for $23)

It does seem that most of the cards on eBay are not exactly midgrade anymore. Most are very low grade. If you want to buy beaters go to eBay.

As for t205 HOFers they are still pretty strong unless you are talking about the big ones like Christy, Cobb and Young. There just aren't enough people who are willing to pay $1000+ for a card to drive up the price to what you would have gotten a year ago. But there are a lot of folks who will pay $150 for middle of the road HOFers in a 4.

It has always been hit or miss on eBay. It just seems that sellers are missing more and more and therefore keeping good stuff off eBay.

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Posted By: rob

I have found ebay to be erratic as well. I am usually willing to give a decent discount on the b/s/t for this reason and several others. Most notably, the risk of low prices on ebay, fees associated with ebay and paypal, reliability and ease of dealing with members of the N54 community.

Rarely have I been blown away with prices of my own sales on ebay, so i try to do as much here as possible. like i said, it is much easier to discount here than deal with all the risks associated with the above. Plus, i like knowing where my card are going.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Scott- I've been selling on ebay recently and while my lower end stuff is soft, when I put up something better it generally does well. I don't think $565 is that bad for an Evers in a PSA 5, and the PSA6 Southern Leaguer sold for about market price. I think you have to work with the market we have, or simply hold onto them. But it might be awhile before you see a price spike with T206. Fact is, they are too plentiful.

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Posted By: Mark L

I have not been selling in this market, but my experience as a buyer is that the bottom has not fallen out by any means. For many of the issues that I buy, the prices are where they were a couple of years ago. In my opinion, the card market is holding up fairly well in light of economic conditions.

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Posted By: leon

OK....I realize ebay has a huge market and huge audience. That is wonderful and I still buy there but seldom sell there. I am selling a few things right now for a friend, and might sell some stuff in the future, but I am not sure right now.

What I don't understand is how someone can win something in auction, maybe even the one Scott and I run, then immediately put it on ebay and hope for a much larger price. I was tracking a $410 (after BP) B & L lot of one of our cards from our last auction that ended on ebay last night. It was a nice card and in the correct section. It sold for $317 and change....or about a 25% discount on ebay. I am not saying all cards would do that but I think there is a good reason to consign to auction houses vs doing ebay....and of course I am biased. I am not sure ebay is the safe bet anymore. regards

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Posted By: peter ullman

As a collector...who rarely sells anything...I echo Barry's sentiment that the lower grade common stuff has come down in price a fair amount on ebay...even the less common stuff in lesser grades has come down...ie...e94's...e99's...e100's. But...the higher grade stuff...especially the scarcer, more obscure stuff has held pretty strong.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Leon- to play devil's advocate I do not buy into the notion that things sell for a discount on ebay. In your example many bidders may have recognized it had just come out of your auction and that may have hurt it.

As an example: a couple of months ago I listed about 7-8 scarce books on BST at reasonable prices. I sold only one and didn't even get inquiries on the others. I began listing them on ebay one at a time and sold each for 50-75% more than my BST price. I listed my Anson book on BST at $225 with no takers, then sold it on ebay last week for $369. And all the others did about the same.

I do not believe things sell for less there because you are in fact catering to a larger audience. What hurts ebay are the endless overpriced BINS, the quick recycling of items, and that in general dealers save their lesser quality pieces for that venue. All things be equal, there is nothing wrong with selling on ebay. The fact that the fees are too high is a separate issue.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

I see different segments of the market going in different directions.

1)There seems to be no let up in pricing for most psa 8 and better pre 1960
cards and no let up for most psa 9 pre 1968 cards.

2)Off condition cards--particularly psa 6 and less and ungraded cards seem to be coming down in price.

I'm not doing a Bruce here but a significant widening of two differentials is something I have been predicting and continue to think highly likely:

1)I think older true vintage cards will significantly outperform their newer counterparts--without getting too simplistic the older the better.
Old Judges will be a better investment than T205s which in turn will be a better investment than 1933 Goudey which will be better than 1954 Topps wich will be better than 1965 Topps and so on

2)High end PSA and SGC graded cards will be a better investment than lower graded and ungraded cards. Despite the economic conditions there are still a lot of people with a lot of money that want to buy baseball cards. Wealthy collectors generally want the best. An 8 is better than a 7 but a 9 is better than an 8 and a 10 is best of all. Money will come into the hobby and it will come primarily into high end cards. Unfortunately the people that are hurting the worset in this severe economic downturn are the guys who would buy mid-garde, low-grade or ungraded cards....and those prices will likely soften.

I still say collect what you like. I am just as excited to finish a 60s set in psa 8 or better as an older set(well almost) and am furiously upgrading some of my psa 8 sets to 9 because I identify with the players and love nice cards.

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Posted By: Scott Levy

Jim,

I agree with many of the things that you say and acknowledge that high end and rare stuff tends to hold its value best. Having said that I have only recently been able to purchase "8" or "88" T206s for under $900 (sometimes as low as 700) - which is a remarkable difference the dizzying height of '06 and a reasonable discount to a few months ago. I suppose that the concept of scarcity and high grade will continue to be redefined in a challenging market.

All in all as a buyer things haven't been this good in a very long time.

Regards,
Scott

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Posted By: JimB

Truly scarce or rare cards, be that condition rarity or actual rarity, are doing fine. Cards that somebody could get at another time down the line are suffering. I also think that cards valued under 10k, and definitely under 5k are taking a tougher beating than premium cards at the higher levels.
JimB

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Posted By: leon

The things I buy from you on ebay last about 3 days, on average, on my "for sale" website. Please keep selling...the more the merrier....take care

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Scott,

You are right--T206 PSA 8s have come off significantly as Loucios/Ireland/Spence complerte their sets. This comes after a dazzling run-up. We need a couple more ultra-wealthy collectors to take a crack at an 8 or better set here.

Jim

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Posted By: barrysloate

Leon- I'm just saying that sometimes ebay will do well, sometimes catalog auctions will, and sometimes direct sales will. You can do well or find a good deal in any venue.

I just don't like the blanket statement that ebay's prices are always lower. In the case of my books someone could have purchased all of them, thrown them on ebay, and made a lot of money.

It's a fluid market but it will also have some fluctuations.

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Posted By: david Poses

I always take a beating when I sell on eBay. I sold a PSA 2 E90 Chase a few weeks ago- the card was gorgeous- except- someone (with beautiful penmanship) wrote their name (in cursive) on the back. Paid about $175 for the card, it sold for $67. On the same day, I sold an SGC 10 T209 (color) Hoffman. Paid about $200. Sold for $89.

While these sales drove me bonkers, I have managed to pick up some much needed cards for a song recently, so I really shouldn't be complaining.

It seems like the low-grade raw T206s keep creeping up, but as someone above pointed out, the lesser condition more obscure (yet not completely scarce, like an E97 Camnitz I won last night) go for way less than a year ago.

I only sell when I buy a big dollar card, but I'm giving a lot of consideration to not selling anymore

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Posted By: James Gallo

I had a very similair experience with putting stuff on the BST letting it sit for a week, lowering the prices and offering discounts, only to put in on ebay and sell several pieces very quickly at 25%-35% percent more then what they were listed on the BST at. Even with the paypal and ebay fees I will make 10-20% more then I was really asking for the card.

I think it really depends on what you have. HOF in the 300-500 range seem to be selling rather well. Anything around $1000 is pretty dead unless it is really rare or desirable but even that stuff has slowed.

I guess that is just how things are right now and what you are selling.

I have had better luck with the mid range and mid price stuff over the high dollar Cobbs and what not.

James G

Looking for 1915 Cracker Jacks and 1909-11 American Caramel E90-1.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Bottom line is you can't predict which venue will work best.

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Posted By: leon

I agree with you. Any venue at any time can realize a higher price. My first comment was just a comment about buying to flip. regards

edited out verbiage

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Posted By: Rich Klein

Jim C is EXACTLY correct in that higher grade older cards will maintain and gain value easier than off condition cards. Whilst any attempts at generalization is not perfect; the basic thrust of his comments are correct.

1) If you are a collector; collect what YOU like. That was his last sentence and he is correct. He has the means to go after 8's and does so.

2) There will be cases where the high end cards soften in a set. OR, if there were 2 active bidders and now there is one. A few years ago, the PCL Hage's were being bid after by 2 collectors; one of whom was Larry Fritsch. Larry is no longer with us and I would wager that the Hage's market has calmed down. Or the Spence; etc. example of the big guns going after the T 206's. Again; short term; relative bargains can be had. Moderate to LONG TERM on high grade T206's, very safe play.

Regards
Rich